The Jerusalem Media and Communications Center has released Poll No. 73, April 2011. Palestinian public opinion regarding peace with Israel is encouraging for supporters of peace and justice: support for violence against Israel has receded from post-Cast Lead levels, and a two-state peace settlement enjoys majority support in both the West Bank and Gaza.
Do you support the continuation of military operations against Israeli targets as an appropriate response under current political conditions or do you oppose them and believe they harm Palestinian national interests?
37.1% Appropriate
51.8% Oppose them and believe they harm Palestinian national interests
Some believe that a two-state formula is the favored solution for the Arab-Israeli conflict, while others believe that historic Palestine cannot be divided and thus the favored solution is a bi-national state on all of Palestine, where Palestinians and Israelis enjoy equal representation and rights. Which of these solutions do you prefer?
53.2% Two-state solution: an Israeli and a Palestinian state
55.1% West Bank support
50.0% Gaza support
22.1% Bi-national state on all of historic Palestine
22.5% West Bank support
21.4% Gaza support
10.4% Palestinian state (volunteered answer)
6.4% West Bank Support
17.0% Gaza Support
1.2% Islamic State (volunteered answer)
1.1% West Bank Support
1.3% Gaza support
By way of comparison, in January 2009, 53.3% of Palestinians supported "military operations as an appropriate response under the current political condition."
With regards to the rockets fired from Gaza Strip towards Israel, the ratio of Palestinians who believe they are useful in achieving the national goals went down from 50.8% in January 2009 to 25.4% this month while the ratio of Palestinians who believe that these rockets harm the national interests went up from 20.8% in January 2009 to 38.6% this month.
In a similar trend, the ratio of Palestinians who support bombing operations against Israeli civilian targets decreased from 55.4% in January 2009 to 37.3% this April. Some discrepancy was seen in the public opinion between the West Bank and Gaza Strip with regards to these issues as a ratio of 45.5% in Gaza supported military operations against Israeli targets compared with 32.0% in the West Bank. A ratio of 57.3% of the respondents in Gaza Strip supported bombing operations against Israeli civilian targets compared with 25.3% in the West Bank.
The margin of error is said to be ±3 percent, with a confidence level of 95%. Details regarding the methodology are given at the end of this diary.
Here is a selection of additional questions and results:
Q2. To what extent do you feel optimistic regarding the Palestinian future? Would you say that you are optimistic, cautiously optimistic, or pessimistic?
21.9% optimistic
44.3% cautiously optimistic
32.6% pessimistic
Q7- How do you feel about the suicide bombings operations against Israeli civilians? Do you strongly support it, somewhat support it, somewhat oppose it, or strongly oppose it?
15.8% strongly support
10.1% West Bank
25.2% Gaza
21.5% somewhat support
15.2% West Bank
32.1% Gaza
26.0% somewhat oppose
31.1% strongly oppose
39.6% West Bank
16.7% Gaza
Q8- Under the current conditions, some believe that the peace process is dead and there is no chance of resuming the negotiations, while others see that the peace process is passing through difficult times with an uncertain future, and a third group believes that the peace process is still alive and there is a possibility of resuming negotiations. What do you think?
37.2% dead; no chance
44.2% difficult times; uncertain future
15.5% still alive; possibility of resumption
A plurality of Palestinians support early elections to resolve the split between the West Bank and Gaza:
Q10- The internal fighting in Gaza led to split between the West Bank and Gaza with the presence of two governments; what is your opinion on the best solution to end this problem?
18.1% cancel Fayyad government; national unity government
10.3% cancel Hanieh government; enforce Fatah rule throughout
33.6% early elections
1.9% international troops responsible for Gaza Strip
31.2% dialogue between the factions
Most Palestinians prefer a government of independent figures, but twice as many support a Fatah government as one by Hamas:
Q11- The Palestinians have tried a Fatah-majority government and a Hamas-majority government, now there is a government with the majority of its ministers as independent figures. In your opinion and from the past experiences, which is the government that best serves the interests of the Palestinian people?
28.6% Fatah majority
12.8% Hamas majority
45.8% independent majority
Fatah does even better on the "trust" issue:
Q31. Which political or religious faction do you trust the most? (No choices were given; all answers were volunteered).
34.0% Fatah
34.5% West Bank
33.0% Gaza
15.0% Hamas
12.4% West Bank
19.4% Gaza
37.0% I don't trust any faction
36.9% West Bank
37.1% Gaza
Methodology:
A random sample of 1198 people over the age of 18 was interviewed face-to-face throughout the West Bank and Gaza Strip between 6th-10th of April 2011. The interviews were conducted in randomly selected homes, and the subjects inside each home were also selected randomly according to Kish tables. The interviews were conducted in 130 sampling points chosen randomly according to population.
In the West Bank 750 people were surveyed from the following areas: Hebron: Tarqoumiya, Hebron, Beit Ummar, Taffuh, Beit Ula, Yatta, Ad-Dhahiriya, Dura, Halhul, Sa’ir, Qalqas, Al-Karmil, al-Fawwar Refugee Camp. Jenin: Kafr Ra’I, Al-Yamoun, Arraba, Jenin, Jaba’, Kufeirit, al-Jalamah, Siris, Jenin Refugee Camp. Tubas: Tubas, Wadi al-Far’a. Ramallah & Al-Bireh: al-Bireh, Bani zeid asharqiya, Ramallah, Beit Liqiya, Deir Abu Mash’al, Kafr Malik, An-Nabi Saleh, al-Zaytouneh, al-Jalazun Refugee Camp. Jericho: Jericho, Ein ad-duyuk al fauqa. Jerusalem: Al-Ram, Al-Dahyeh, Biddo, Beit Ikssa, Beit Hanina, Shu’fat, Old City, Silwan, Ras al-Amoud, Shu’fat Refugee Camp.
Bethlehem: Bethlehem, Nahalin, Tuqu’, Al-Khader, Irtas, Al-Azza Refugee Camp. Nablus: Nablus, Salim, Huwwara, Burin, Beit Iba, Qusin, Tell, Sarra, Ein Beit El Ma’ Refugee Camp. Salfit: Salfit, Bruqin. Tulkarem: Baqa ash-sharqiya, Tulkarem, Deir al-Ghusun, Illar, An-nazalah al-Sharqiya, Ramin. Qalqiliya: Qalqiliya, Jitt.
In the Gaza Strip 448 people were surveyed from: Gaza: Al-Rimal a-Shamali, a-Rimal a-Janoubi, a-Zeitoun, a-Shuja’ia, a-Tufah, a-Daraj, a-Naser, a-Sheikh Radwan, Tal Al-Hawa, Al-Mughraga, Shati RC. Khan Younis: Khan Younis, Absan Al-Kabira, Bani Suheila, Al-Qarara, Khuza’, Khan Younis Refugee Camp. Rafah: Rafah, Shouket a-Soufi, Rafah Refugee Camp. Gaza North: Jabalia, Beit Lahia, Beit Hanoun, Jabalia Refugee Camp. Deir Al-Balah: Deir Al-Balah, Al-Brej, Al-Zawaydeh, Al-Nusseirat, Al-Maghazi Refugee Camp, Al-Brej Refugee Camp, Der al –Balah Refugee Camp.
The margin of error is ±3 percent, with a confidence level of 95%.
Students 13.6%
Laborers 10.3%
Housewives 37.3%
Farmers/fishermen2.3 %
Craftsmen 0.9%
Businessmen/private business 6.8%
Public Sector Employees 13.2%
Private Sector Employees 5.4%
Professionals (e.g. doctors/lawyers/ pharmacists/engineers) 0.9%
Unemployed 6.9%
Retired 1.8%,
No answer 0.6%.