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This is a follow-up to this diary from last Thursday by heritage watch. There is vast movement in what was expected to be a same-old, same-old federal campaign here in Canada. In short, the New Democratic Party, the true progressive party of the Great White North, is poised to make major gains next Monday, and could conceivably become the new government.

The situation is changing daily, and I will be happy to try to give answers as to why, but here are the latest amazing numbers from from the reputable polling firm EKOS, in association with

In brief, a large sample of over 3,000 taken over the Easter weekend shows the governing Cons with 33.7%, NDP with 28.0%, and the Liberals with 23.7%. The separatist Bloc Quebecois is collapsing in Quebec. The NDP has 38.7% there, compared to 25.2% for the Bloc and under 15% for both the Cons and the Libs. The NDP currently has but one member from Quebec, but these numbers should translate into a majority of Quebec's 75 seats. This would be absolutely unprecedented.

If these EKOS numbers hold true, election night results would give the Cons something like 130 seats, well short of a majority, and the NDP around 100 seats, with the Libs trailing around 60. Under these circumstances, it's hard to see that the Cons could continue to rule (although under our constitution they would have the right to try). In any case, it would be a whole new political landscape.

It's worth noting that, while other pollsters aren't pegging the NDP so high just yet, the surge is showing in all polls, especially in Quebec.


In the May 2 vote, the NDP will come in:

26%71 votes
44%117 votes
17%45 votes
11%30 votes

| 263 votes | Vote | Results

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