First up, special election correspondent Johnny Longtorso has this report on tonight's state legislative contests:
Tuesday will be a prelude to the pending recall elections in Wisconsin. Three Assembly seats are up for election, the three Republican incumbents having joined the Walker administration. Two seats are safely Republican: AD-60, where Democratic teacher Rick Aaron and Republican businessman Duey Stroebel will face off, and AD-83, where it's a contest between Democrat James Brownlow, a retired librarian, and Republican Dave Craig, an aide to Rep. Paul Ryan.
The interesting seat is AD-94. This is a swing seat in LaCrosse County that JoAnne Kloppenburg won 52-48 in the Supreme Court election. Democrats have recruited Steve Doyle, a longtime member of the LaCrosse County Board and professor at UW-LaCrosse, while Republicans have John Lautz, a local businessman. A Democratic pickup in this seat could be a harbinger of Republican chances in the coming recall elections.
Also on Tuesday is a runoff in California's AD-04, the first under the new top-two primary system. Republican Beth Gaines is the likely victor over Democrat Dennis Campanale in this heavily Republican seat.
Finally, a quick shoutout to the newest member of the Louisiana House of Representatives, from District 47; Bob Hensgens defeated Linda Hardee in a R vs. R contest to succeed Republican Jonathan Perry, who was elevated to the State Senate in February.
I previously ran the numbers on the Wisconsin Assembly districts. Obama won only 38% in the 60th & 35% in the 83rd. But he took 55% in the 94th, which, combined with the KloJo numbers, makes this seat look competitive (at least on paper). We'll see what happens tonight.
Also, I'll borrow liberally from this comment Kretzy made a couple of weeks ago summing up the Denver mayor's race:
Denver's mayoral race is May 3, and though ten people are running, seems to be a contest between three:
• former State Sen. Chris Romer (son of former Gov. Roy Romer), who has support of most of the Republicans (despite being a Democrat)
• former city employee and preschools director James Mejia, who has support from the Latino community and progressives
• City Councilman Michael Hancock, former president of the Denver Urban League, who has the support of much of the black community and lots of the moderates.
Romer has been the front-runner the entire campaign, with support ranging from ex-State Sen. President Josh Penry (a conservative Republican) to the Denver Post, to liberal Rep. Ed Casso. Mejia and Hancock have been closing fast, though.
All three men are polling between 18 and 22 percent in recent polls, and if no candidate reaches 50 percent (which no one will), we'll have a runoff later this summer. It's an all-mail election, and participation will probably be low, as it was in 2003 when Hickenlooper beat 4 others without needing a runoff in the last open race. ...
The race is interesting, with Denver's White, Latino and Black communities all putting up a serious candidate. Of the three, Hancock would have serious potential for future statewide office were he to win.
I haven't seen any new polls since the mid-April Denver Post poll that Kretzy mentions, so it's anyone's guess as to how things have shifted since then (if at all). As always, predictions welcome in comments!