Primer: This is a running tally of the partisan leanings of redistricted seats.
I include three sets of states: 1) States which have finished redistricting (including at-large); 2) States which are practically done redistricting, all that has to be done is crossing the Ts and dotting the Is; 3) States which haven’t begun redistricting, but that cannot change the partisan leanings of their districts.
I’ve classified districts as Democratic, Republican, or Swing. The numbers below are presented in D-R-S format. The two sets of numbers represent the current state of the seats and the future state of the seats. Both are included so that we can see which party has benefitted from the process so far. Numbers may not match due to reapportionment.
I will only post this when evidence about a state is presented in the Daily Digest.
For instance: the speculative nature of places like Cillizza’s “The Fix” will not be taken into consideration, but concrete data such as a map being taken up by the Colorado legislature will.
Changing the partisan leanings of the districts is completely up to our community. If you have any suggestions, please feel free to private message me or, better yet, comment here. The ratings are a general sense of the districts. The ratings are heavily influenced by incumbency. A district which is open is more likely to be ranked as swing (such as Montana-AL) than a district which would be swing or leaning for the opposite party if it were open, but has a strong incumbent (Dan Boren, Mike Ross, etc.).
I will update this post as needed.
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Arkansas: The 4th is Democratic, the 3rd is Republican, the other two are lean Republican swing districts.
Indiana: The 1st and 7th are Democratic, the 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, and 9th are Republican, while the 3rd and the bloody 8th are swing.
Iowa: The 1st and 2nd are Democratic, the 4th is Republican (though less so), and the 3rd is swing (but significant lean in our favor).
Lousiana: The 2nd is VRA AA, the rest are Republican.
Missouri: The 1st and 5th are Democrats districts in St. Louis and Kansas City, the 2nd is a lean Republican swing district, while the rest are rural and Republican.
Oklahoma: The districts remain the same.