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Senate:

WA-Sen: The Elway Poll has about as bad news/good news a set of findings for Maria Cantwell as you could possibly imagine. The bad news is that her job performance ratings are a dreary 40/52. It's worth noting, though that it's 40% "excellent" or "good" and 52% "fair" or "poor." There are a few other pollsters who occasionally use this four-way phrasing (like Marist) and it always seems to yield much worse results compared to a simple "favorable/unfavorable." "Fair" is ambiguous, and probably vacuums up a number of respondents who'd give a positive response if pushed to respond in one of two ways.

The good news is that her is that her actual electoral chances seem unharmed. Her re-elect is 46% (vs. 36% replace, numbers that are virtually identical to where she was six years ago). And in a hypothetical Top 2 primary that piles every viable Republican in the state into the clown car, she gets 47% to a composite 23% among all GOPers. That breaks down to 9 for Rep. Dave Reichert, 7 for former news anchor and losing '09 King County Executive candidate Susan Hutchison, 6 for teabaggin' '10 Senate primary loser Clint Didier, and 1 for Port of Seattle Commissioner Bill Bryant. (The locally-based Elway is considered to be the 'gold standard' of Washington pollsters, although they were the only pollster to actually overstate Patty Murray's chances in their last 2010 poll.)

Gubernatorial:

WV-Gov: Democratic quasi-incumbent Earl Ray Tomblin had to be pretty heartened by last week's PPP poll of the primary, which gave him a 32-17-16-15 lead over John Perdue, Natalie Tennant, and Rick Thompson, and now he has an internal poll that closely confirms those numbers. Tomblin's out with an internal from GSG that finds him at 36, with 17 for Tennant, 15 for Thompson, and 12 for Perdue. (Speaking of state Treasurer Perdue, he's continuing to get negative against Tomblin in his latest TV ad, which hits Tomblin for ties to the casino industry.) That PPP poll also shows Tomblin a runaway favorite in the general; the only bad news for him is that this is a special election and, assuming he wins, he has to do it all over again next year.

House:

CO-07: Despite losing convincingly to Ed Perlmutter last year in the 7th, Republican Ryan Frazier, a city councilor in the mega-suburb of Aurora, still seems to have some of that 'rising star' halo over his head. Still in his early 30s, it looks like he's going to undergo some more seasoning before going big again; he's running for Aurora mayor now, which probably precludes a '12 rematch with Perlmutter.

NM-02: Democrats have suddenly attracted not one but two credible candidates to go against Rep. Steve Pearce (or this could be an open seat, if Pearce tries another ill-advised Senate run). One is definite: Martin Resindiz is the mayor of Sunland Park, a mostly-Latino suburb of El Paso, Texas. (The 2nd would be a great place to run a Hispanic candidate, as the 2010 census found this is now a Hispanic-majority district.) The other likely candidate is Nate Cote, a former state Rep. from the Las Cruces area. The article also mentions real estate developer Edgar Lopez as another less likely option for the Dems.

NY-26: Never underestimate the power of undisciplined hordes of teabaggers to screw a sure thing up for the GOP, especially when compounded by New York's wacky election laws. The presence of Republican-turned-Democrat-turned-"Tea Party" indie Jack Davis has turned the coronation of GOP Assemblywoman Jane Corwin in New York's reddest district (R+6) into a 3-way scrum. The Democratic candidate, Erie County Clerk Kathy Hochul, just rolled out an internal from GSG showing her trailing Corwin only 31-30, with Davis hanging in there at 26.

So, it's no coincidence that the national GOP and its allies are starting to sweat this race. Karl Rove-linked dark money group American Crossroads sounds likely to start advertising, and the NRCC and Tea Party Express are setting up pro-Corwin phonebanking. Corwin's campaign is also changing tacks, as its new TV spot attacks Davis rather than Hochul (hitting him for his brief sojourn in the Democratic Party). (Speaking of Corwin, here's an example of why you should always buy up every online permutation of your name... check out what you get when you go to janecorwin.org. This much slicker-than-usual act of political sabotage/satire seems to come from Ian Murphy, the blogger from the Buffalo Beast best known for punking Scott Walker but who's now the Green Party candidate in the race.)

OR-01: Game Theory 101 time: despite being badly damaged, Democratic Rep. David Wu could actually win his primary by virtue of his being so badly damaged, because he seems to be attracting so many potential opponents that they'll all split the non-Wu vote and let him win with a plurality. I can't see today's newest possible entrant getting much traction, though; it's ex-Rep. Betsy Furse, Wu's predecessor who held the district from 1992-1998. Furse was barely able to hold the district back then (although it was redder than it is today), and then in 2006 she raised eyebrows by endorsing GOP Sen. Gordon Smith, erasing whatever credibility she had left. State Labor Commissioner Brad Avakian is Wu's only announced primary challenger, but four or five other prominent Dems are also circling around Wu. (In case Wu needed any more bad press regarding his sinking ship, it was also announced a few days ago that a former Wu '10 campaign aide was arrested for stealing and forging checks from the campaign account.)

WA-02: He's baaaaack... Republican Snohomish County Councilor John Koster will be making his third run against Rep. Rick Larsen. (He lost in 2000 when it was an open seat, and again last year in the state's closest House race.) If he couldn't get it done last year, I don't see it happening in a presidential year in this D+3 district. One interesting addendum: he also mentioned that he'd be willing to consider the Senate race against Maria Cantwell (presumably if no one bigger gets in), but prefers the 2nd, saying that's "where his heart is."

WA-??: We kind of shrugged when we first heard rumors a few days ago that Dennis Kucinich, facing the redistricting elimination of his suburban Cleveland seat, had been inquiring behind the scenes about the possibilities of moving to the potentially friendlier confines of Washington state... but as the story grows, it's increasingly clear he's actually serious about this. He's talked to local Democratic leaders about the possible shape of available districts in '12. It may be a bit of a fool's errand, though, as Jim McDermott looks like he has no intention of vacating the one district that would be likely to have Kucinich, Seattle's WA-07. The newly created WA-10, and WA-01, likely to be left open by Jay Inslee for a gubernatorial run, are likely to be fairly blue, but will be suburban seats where Kucinich wouldn't be a good fit and where they'd probably prefer a local at any rate. (And don't expect local Dems to roll out the welcome wagon for Kucinich, if reactions from state party chair Dwight Pelz, quite the liberal firebrand himself, are any indication...)

As for the actual mechanics of doing so, Kucinich would be entitled to run so long as he moved to Washington at least 30 days before the June 12, 2012 filing deadline. If you're wondering about the contours of the as-yet-created WA-10, comments from insiders seem to suggest it'll have at least one center of gravity in dark-blue Olympia, currently part of WA-03, as they're talking up Olympia-based Denny Heck (who narrowly lost the WA-03 open seat last year) or former state Rep. Brendan Williams as possible candidates for that seat.

Other Races:

WI recall: With the signatures in, now the question in Wisconsin turns to who actually runs in these state Senate recall elections. On the Dem side, here's another good get, as state Rep. Sandy Pasch signed on to run against Republican Sen. Alberta Darling. (Pasch's Assembly district takes up one-third of Darling's district.) There were actually two credible Dems interested in the run... former state Rep. Sheldon Wasserman, narrowly who lost the 2008 Senate election to Darling, was also angling for it but seems to have gotten elbowed aside for Pasch. By contrast, two Republican state Reps. passed on the chance to run against Democratic state Sen. Jim Holperin, probably the most vulernable of the recall-eligible Dems. Instead, that leaves it to Kim Simac, the founder of the Northwood Patriots tea party group and the organizer of the Holperin petition. Sensing an enthusiasm gap here?

Redistricting Roundup:

Nevada: We're getting our first look at the proposed Democratic map of Nevada's U.S. House districts, and it's a nice one: it's configured to be 3 solid Dem districts and 1 solid Republican district, quite a change from the current 2-1 GOP edge. However, this map is likely to be a negotiating position rather than the actual map; Republican Gov. Brian Sandoval isn't going to approve such a Dem-friendly map.

Texas: Texas seems to be a ways away from any consensus on its U.S. House map (where they have a windfall of four new seats to divvy up, but where the Republican legislature may need to concede two of those seats to the Democrats thanks to massive Hispanic growth). However, it sounds like their map of the state House is coalescing: it advanced out of committee and then was tentatively approved by the full House. (The GOP controls both legislative chambers and the governorship, so the VRA is the only real impediment stopping them from an unmitigated gerrymandering frenzy.)



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Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Fri May 06, 2011 at 11:09 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Kim Simac is Sharron Angle of the Northwoods (8+ / 0-)

    Simac is a dream come true for Democrats.  She has her own radio show and appears to be on the leading edge of right-wing crazy talk.  A taste:

    "I am done raising my kids but if I was a young parent today I would take my kids out of the public school system today. At what point will we stop talking about the comparisons to what is occurring today and what actually happened by the regime of the Nazi's in the past?"

    So public school curricula = Nazism.  Oooohkay...

  •  Jim Holperin (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, dc1000, LordMike

    is no doubt the most vulnerable district around, in terms of his district's leanings and traditional Republicanism. The utter lack of a legitimate candidate will probably save him. An anti-government teabagger is probably not the type of quiet, moderate conservative that Republicans would need to beat him. That leaves Hansen as the only Democrat in deep water, and he has a slightly more Democratic leaning district.

    I still feel like, if Democrats could get a good, quasi-legitimate candidate, they would beat Rob Cowles, who hasn't run a reelection campaign in forever and seems both complacent and lazy. What's more Democrats turned in the most signatures of any recall race for his district.

    "For fools rush in where angels fear to tread". -Alexnader Pope

    by ArkDem14 on Fri May 06, 2011 at 11:18:57 AM PDT

    •  when i read the title (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Darth Jeff, jj32, jncca, ipsos, Cole Stevens

      i swore that said "Jim Halpert" :P

    •  That is the problem with Cowles (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, DCCyclone, ArkDem14

      Is that there does not seem to be many candidates.  I will wait to see who comes forward, but without Tom Nelson I am not holding my breath.  Maybe there is another Shelly Moore type of candidate who has not run for anything, but has a compelling biography.  
      As for Hansen, I am still optimistic about his seat in that he actually has a concentrated Democratic base in Green Bay whereas for Jim Holpen the base is diffused between cities like Rhinelander and Merrill and the Native American reservations.  Additionally while Mary Scray is a legitimate challenger, Nygren would have been much more formidable and could have switched my rating of the race to Tossup.  
      As for Holperin, he lucked out.  He still has a race on his hands. But have such a small margin in 08 and being in a district as red as his with as strong as a Republican bench and the person who comes forward is, as described above, the Sharron Angle of the Northwoods. I mean she was not even considered as a candidate in RRH's rundown of the Democratic Senators.  Probably greater than 50 percent chance of keeping the seat now.

  •  IN-08: Dave Crooks is in (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    drhoosierdem, Goobergunch, DCCyclone

    Not really news, as he's been talking pretty seriously about running since last month, but now the former state rep has officially entered the race. I'm still feeling pretty confident about the race here; Bucshon didn't really have to run a serious race to win last year and his fundraising hasn't been strong. As long as Crooks can rustle up some money, this is the best chance the Dems have of flipping any of the Indiana districts this cycle.

    Independent Socialist and Vice-Chair of DKE Cranky Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

    by Bob R Bobson on Fri May 06, 2011 at 11:24:59 AM PDT

  •  NY-26 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    tietack, gabjoh

    would an obama visit a day or two before the election help or hinder?  on the one hand obama's favorability is on the rise, possibly just because of OBL, but if the 10% drop in oil results in at least 7% drop in gas prices and the economy keeps gaining jobs, then it may stabilize.  However it might seem just a bit TOO political to campaign for a candidate in NY so soon after OBL.  would it be too political, or in that ideal spot of "enough time has passed so it's not ostentatiously benefiting from killing OBL but soon enough that people still really care"?  

  •  Swingstate Proj Gets a Shoutout from Charlie Cook (19+ / 0-)

    Wrote an article about candidates unsure about where they will be running in 2012 and made this little mention.

    You’ve got to hand it to bloggers on SwingStateProject.com who have taken a twist on Schrödinger’s cat and coined a new term associated with candidates running in districts that may or may not exist come 2012: Schrödinger’s seat.

    http://www.nationaljournal.com/...

  •  I wish that (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    tietack, itskevin, NMLib, gabjoh

    person from SSP who was volunteering for Hochul's campaign would come over. He/she said that it would be possible to do phone calls by contacting the Hochul campaign, but I haven't heard back from them.

    21, male, RI-01 (voting)/IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

    by sapelcovits on Fri May 06, 2011 at 11:31:29 AM PDT

    •  That was me, I'll talk to the (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone

      Field Director. I'm not 100% sure if it's possible, but since they list it as a possibility on their volunteer form on their website, I assume it is.

      Did you just fill out the form or mail them directly? Generally, campaigns are sloppy at responding to the forms because it just goes into an NDP database while the campaign emails are usually read.

      •  field director (0+ / 0-)

        what does a field director do, aside from the boiler plate "register voters, meet people etc etc" I have a chance to intern as a field director for the obama campaign, but i'm not sure what the position really entails.  could you give me a better picture of it please?

        •  Uh, then the Obama campaign means something (0+ / 0-)

          entirely different with that than most campaigns. A field director is responsible for coordinating voter contacts, managing voter files, campaign offices, canvassers, phonebankers and the GOTV effort at large. I doubt Obama would charge an intern with that. More likely you're working as a field director for a precinct or county or something like that.

        •  You were not a Field Director (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          geoneb

          Obama's National Field Director was Jon Carson. You may have interned with the field campaign, but the titles "intern" and "Field director" do not go together.

      •  It was you? (0+ / 0-)

        I thought it was someone whose name was like Eternal Pessimist or something. But I appreciate help from anyone :)

        I filled out the form, so it's actually good that you mention that. I'll shoot the campaign a direct e-mail.

        21, male, RI-01 (voting)/IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

        by sapelcovits on Fri May 06, 2011 at 02:35:18 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  There is definitely a phonebank going on in NYC (0+ / 0-)

      on next Wednesday. I'm sure they would be glad to have SSP people there; if any of you all are in the area, send me a "direct message" and I can forward you the information.

      Also, there is a chance I will be going up to the district for the ten days before the election. (I love being in college and having school finish in the beginning of May!)

  •  NM-02 (6+ / 0-)

    I've said this before, but there's a very good chance that Susana Martinez will be forced to make a deal with the legislature to strengthen Steve Pearce in exchange for completely conceding NM-01, Pearce is simply too conservative to win a district that Obama is winning.

    A court-drawn map is a nightmare for Pearce, as there is a very good chance a compromise map would make NM-01 more Republican while making NM-02 more Democratic.

    Of course, if Steve Pearce decides to run for Senate again, all bets are off, but I suspect even Pearce isn't that stupid.

    Politics and more Handle name DGM on Swing State Project

    by NMLib on Fri May 06, 2011 at 11:33:45 AM PDT

  •  UK Elections Winners and Losers (12+ / 0-)

    At least from my perspective:

    Winners

    Scottish National Party - The obvious winners, the SNP made big gains and ended up with a majority in the Scottish Parliament.

    Labour - Though Labour did poorly in Scotland, losing 7 seats to the LibDems, they made up for it by winning 30 of the 60 seats in the Welsh Assembly, and made huge gains in the English local elections; current results have them picking up almost 800 council seats and gaining control of 25 councils.

    Mixed Bag

    Conservatives - Like Labour, the SNP's gains were the Conservative's losses; they dropped 5 seats in the Scottish Parliament. However, they did win enough seats in the Welsh Assembly to become the official opposition party, passing the Plaid Cymru (not that that probably means much, as they only have 14/60 seats now). In the English local elections, they stood pat, gaining a handful of seats and picking up control of two councils (though there are a few still outstanding).

    Losers

    Liberal Democrats - The obvious losers, Nick Clegg's unholy alliance with the Tories has led his party to the brink of destruction. They lost 3/4ths of their seats in the Scottish Parliament, leaving them with the two island constituencies and a few regional seats, and their vote totals dropped by half. In Wales, they only lost one seat, but they only had six seats in the previous assembly. And in England, they lost a huge number of council seats (about 40%, currently) and lost control of nine councils. The AV referendum looks to be going down by a large margin, which is also a blow to the LibDems, who were its biggest supporters.

    Plaid Cymru - The PC lost four seats, losing its official opposition status to the Tories. I've never got the sense that the Welsh independence movement was nearly as prominent as the Scottish independence movement, but either way, this isn't a good result for them.

  •  How will redistricting affect OR-01? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    supercereal

    Not well.  In almost any scenario it will lose more Democratic voters than Republicans, and thus the primary there is very important.

    My last diary, yesterday, was about this.  Click on my username to check it out.

    "Intolerance is something which belongs to the religions we have rejected." - J.J. Rousseau -6.38, -4.15

    by James Allen on Fri May 06, 2011 at 11:51:41 AM PDT

  •  Nebraska Redistricting (6+ / 0-)

    Republicans have introduced their map.

    The map is here (PDF)

    http://bloximages.chicago2.vip.townnews.com/...

    NE-02 is really the only competitive part of the state. The good news is Douglas county (Omaha) was not split.  Douglas county makes up about 85% of the new NE-02 (up from 81% in the current district) and went to Obama by 52%-47%. The bad news is Nebraska Republicans made the portion of Sarpy County in NE-02 more Republican.  But while the Sarpy part of the District is more Republican than the old map it is also smaller (15% of the district compared to 19%, NE-02 had to shed 30,000 voters and they all came from Sarpy County) and the net effect is the partisan makeup of the district is changed very little. Obama can win this district in 2012 and it is at least possible Lee Terry could face a legitimate challenge.

  •  MN Redistricting (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    gabjoh

    The GOP legislative district plan that will be DOA when it hits Mark Dayton's desk passed the state House this morning. Here is an interesting analysis of the proposal that shows how gerrymandered the plan is.

    http://mnpublius.com/...

    An analysis of proposed redistricting plan L1101_0 by Dr. Michael McDonald at George Mason University for Common Cause Minnesota finds that the proposed redistricting plan is biased towards the Republican Party. Using a metric commonly used by practitioners, academics, andthe courts to assess the partisan bias of redistricting plans, Dr. McDonald finds that the DFLwould need to win 53.3% of the vote within the legislative districts to win a majority of thelegislative seats.
  •  John Bolton sounds like he's running (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Goobergunch, gabjoh

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

    by andyroo312 on Fri May 06, 2011 at 12:32:53 PM PDT

  •  So... Kucinich is actually serious about this? (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Zack from the SFV, dc1000, flhiii88

    If this ends up not being true, and he runs in Ohio again, is there an audience willing to primary him?  Ideology aside, it would seem to me that having your Congressional staff openly discussing representing other groups of people across the country would be enough for a challenger to play with - but I don't know Kucinich's history with primary challenges - something tells me he hasn't been a stranger to them.

    Join me at Students for a New American Politics, electing the progressives we need now while training the next generation of progressive leaders

    by MattFromVermont on Fri May 06, 2011 at 01:18:47 PM PDT

    •  if he runs in ohio again (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Zack from the SFV

      It would be in a Columbus vote sink that has no democratic incumbent. His political career in Cleveland is done

      •  What are you basing that on? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        gabjoh

        Well, he did only take 50.27% of the vote in his last contested primary, in 2008.  Do you think the Washington thing has, in fact, killed his local career, or do you think his district will get eliminated/drawn with someone else and he'll lose that primary?  Has he recently pissed off local Cleveland Dem activists/power brokers?

        25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

        by Xenocrypt on Fri May 06, 2011 at 01:50:18 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  I like the Kooch (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      dc1000, SaoMagnifico

         but it does seem like his career in Congress is on its last legs.  If you are a Representative you gotta represent your district.  Running for President and ignoring your district doesn't cut it.

      I'm not a Limousine Liberal; I am a Prius Progressive

      by Zack from the SFV on Fri May 06, 2011 at 01:47:18 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Bottom line is (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        dc1000, SaoMagnifico

        If he's not doing anything with the powers of his office, and just wants to be a "firebrand"/spokesman/whatever, he has the national profile to do that.   I don't know the extent to which that's true, but if it is, there's no particular reason for him to be in Congress.  

        25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

        by Xenocrypt on Fri May 06, 2011 at 01:52:44 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I'm more than a little tired of the... (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        tardis10, TheRain, gabjoh

        "He doesn't represent his district" false blather. Kucinich has excellent constituent service... a lot better than most reps.

        There are plenty of things to criticize Dennis about, but not serving his district is not one of them.

        GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

        by LordMike on Fri May 06, 2011 at 06:09:11 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  This is good to know (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          NMLib, jncca

          But it's not necessarily the same as doing--not necessarily anything--but enough with the powers of the office to make someone a valuable Congressman.  Are you familiar with any influence he's had on legislation or policy?  (Good constituent service does help explain his electoral success, of course.)

          According to OpenCongress (are they any good?), he hasn't had any sponsored or co-sponsored(!) bills passed into law.  Of course, we all know that's a small part of a Congressperson's potential influence--maybe he proposed a bill or amendment that failed, but the language later got folded up into a larger bill, or something like that.  Anyway, I look at his Wikipedia page and I see voted, voted, voted, statement, sponsored, voted, but nothing else.  On his House website, though, I see (along with the sponsored stuff)

          Kucinich led the effort to save Cleveland's 90 year-old steel industry and the thousands of jobs and retiree benefits it provides. While hundreds of community hospitals have been closed throughout the country, Kucinich led a community-based effort to reopened two Cleveland neighborhood hospitals.

          Kucinich worked with the nation's largest railroads to create a merger agreement that improved rail safety while diverting a heavy volume of train traffic away from heavily populated residential areas of his district.

          Without knowing any of the details except a quick Newsbank search, that's more along the lines of what I mean--although the "community-based effort" might not be something you have to be a Congressperson to do.  However, I'll also add that those things seem to be from 2000, which is getting to be a while ago.  (He got the Plains Dealer endorsement that year--which I always thought was a fairly conservative paper).  It certainly seems like he has the ability to be an effective local representative, but he might have slackened in those efforts recently in exchange for his national firebrand/pain in the ass role, which might explain his weak primary performance in 2008 and all the dead man walking stuff now.  

          Or not!  Maybe he's just gotten some bad media attention for his presidential campaign and so on.  I do think he gets a bad rap sometimes for being "wacky" for positions which are either sensible enough (one article threw in gay marriage and impeaching Dick Cheney, and what a horrible world it would be if those two things happened) or personal idiosyncrasies that I don't share but I don't really care about in a politician (he says he saw a UFO.  So do a lot of people.  I don't believe in them but whatever.  He's a vegan.  I'm not but so are a lot of people and so what?  Maybe he'd annoy me at a party, but that goes for a lot of politicians.)  I'm not a foreign policy follower so I can't judge him too much on that.

          In short, as usual, I don't know enough to say, but these are the questions I'd ask if I did.

          25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

          by Xenocrypt on Fri May 06, 2011 at 11:35:17 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Depends on what you mean by "serving the district" (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Xenocrypt

          I have no idea about his constituent service -- casework and the like -- but I have a hard time believing that his constituents just want their congressman to do casework and travel around the country making fiery progressive speeches. I suspect they rather would like their Rep to try and pass, you know, legislation and stuff.

          One thing I do know, because I used to work in Congress, is that he is universally -- and I do mean absolutely universally -- considered a clown within the walls of Congress, and no one wants to be within a mile of him. Which explains why he never passes any legislation. That may be fine for a lot of folks (what they think within the insane asylum of Capitol Hill isn't necessarily God's word), but it explains a lot.

          •  Yeah, internal political reputation (0+ / 0-)

            Is weird.  It can be a self-fulfilling prophecy, but then, that's true of all reputation.  That's why I like those polls some local papers do of state legislative staffers and lobbyists--you try to recognize that their opinion matters even if it might not be "true" in some sense.

            On the other hand, I am not sure how much legislation even the hardest-working legislator can expect to pass if they don't have seniority or they're not in leadership, but I am sure there are all sorts of other ways they can use the formal and informal powers of their office.  But sometimes those things are hard to dig up.

            25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

            by Xenocrypt on Sat May 07, 2011 at 03:53:17 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  I thought part of the reason he (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      is discussing this, is because he will likely be forced into a primary with another incumbent Dem.

    •  Yes he is, what an idiot (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      GradyDem, NMLib, jncca

      Moving to another state?!

      What I don't understand is why Washington Dems don't diss him pubilcly already.  I suppose they might be truly speechless about it.  This never happens, it's hard to believe someone would try this.

      Kucinich is going to humiliate himself in the worst way if he tries this stunt.

      43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Fri May 06, 2011 at 06:51:59 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I cant believe he is (0+ / 0-)

      If he moves to WA wont he have to resign his seat as a Rep from OH? I mean can he represent OH in congress if he no longer lives in the state.

      Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info: http://searchmfr.swagbucks.com/refer/getfreestuff

      by izengabe on Fri May 06, 2011 at 08:09:42 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  The Nevada map (0+ / 0-)

    Is its version of NV-03 really that good for us?  As far as I can tell, it still includes a bunch of suburbs that are good for Heck, plus it now eats up a ton of rural territory to further push it away from us.  Honestly from the pure looks of that map I'd like our chances in the new NV-04 better since it has dropped a ton of rural territory and shrunk to be much more focused on Reno.

    •  I tried to draw the map in DRA as best I could (0+ / 0-)

      This is what I came up with:

      NV-01 - 59-39 Obama
      NV-02 - 49-48 Obama
      NV-03 - 56-42 Obama
      NV-04 - 57-41 Obama

      •  Wow (0+ / 0-)

        I guess I got to look closer at how they divided the greater Las Vegas area.  They must have dumped some pretty great Obama precincts in there to maintain those numbers (the current NV-03 is like 55-43 Obama I think).

        A great map from Democrats then as it makes the three Clark County districts all strongly Democratic, without overtly packing any of them.  I imagine a Republican map would try to boost Democratic performance in NV-01 and NV-04 to well over 60% Dem for each, so that NV-03 could be winnable for Heck.

        And as others have noted, there's basically no way to draw a NV-02 that Obama didn't win, given his strength in Reno.

        •  I haven't looked at the map (0+ / 0-)

          But the key to your initial confusion might be that "a ton" of Nevada rural area, visually, might not add up to many voters at all.

          25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

          by Xenocrypt on Fri May 06, 2011 at 11:10:24 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  That map is as favorable as rationally possible (0+ / 0-)

      NV-03 has to take in some of the cow counties.  Clark isn't big enough for three districts, but is very close.

      This map grabs the most Dem-friendly areas of the cow counties.  It's more favorable than maps discussed at SSP because it doesn't include all of Nye county.  Instead it gives the bluest areas of Nye to 03 and the reddest/norteast Nye to the 02.

      It makes the Reno seat a tougher nut to crack, but it pretty much guarantees 03 will be held by a Dem by the end of the decade, if not immediately.  

      http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/11/13/21516/201/804/660248

      by tommypaine on Sat May 07, 2011 at 12:00:59 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Pasch's Announcement Speech (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin

    http://whitefishbay.patch.com/...

    Unfortunately, there was some rain, but thankfully Sen. Lena Taylor was there with an umbrella.  I have to admire the determination of remaining so articulate through the inclement weather, although this is apparently not the full uninterrupted speech.

    •  Why Wasserman Did Not Get In (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone, itskevin

      http://www.jsonline.com/...
      "Also at Pasch's rally: Sheldon Wasserman, who held Pasch's Assembly seat before losing a Senate election to Darling in 2008. Both had talked of  challenging Darling in a recall election this summer, and discussed which one should run.
      Wasserman said polling had shown that Pasch would do better than he would in a race that involved attacks on Darling. Also, he said, as he's said before, he feared that Republicans in the Legislature would rush through a redistricting plan that would cut him out of the 8th Senate District, sowing confusion among voters."

      As discussed on SSP, redistricting could not happen until the fall because municipalities need to draw voting wards which are the units of state and congressional districts.  So, that means that while Wasserman lives in the southernmost tip of the district (Milwaukee Ward 38) and could theoretically be redistricted out, if he did run and win it would be likely that the Dems have a majority in the Senate (given the vulnerability of this seat compared to others), which would mean at worst a court drawn map.  The courts have kept his ward in the district for the past two maps, so I do not see how that will not continue.
      As for the polling, while I would love to get some actual numbers, it confirms my suspicion that Pasch is the better candidate.

  •  I'm surprised Dino Rossi isn't running... (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, BeloitDem, gabjoh, itskevin

    against Maria Cantwell.

    Show me a sane man and I will cure him for you ~ C.G. Jung

    by JClarkPDX on Fri May 06, 2011 at 08:28:13 PM PDT

  •  Dennis Kucinich sounds like an addict. His (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    GradyDem, itskevin

    eagerness to go wherever he can get a fix tells me he's not at all attached to the district he purports to represent.  I would really, really resent a carpetbagger parachuting into my district from out of state because he NEEDS a political office.  Hell, those northern Jersey pols better keep their respectful distance, thank you very much.

    "The worst that can happen to any group of people working to unseat an existing power base is their failure to imagine the lengths to which those in power will go to keep it." Cognitive Dissonance at Zero Hedge

    by CarolinNJ on Fri May 06, 2011 at 08:38:57 PM PDT

  •  WA-10 (0+ / 0-)

    Brendan Williams would be a hell of a candidate--smart, articulate, and on the right side of the issues.

    Denny Heck is a nice guy, but the way the State Democratic establishment (all the way up to Gregoire) lined up behind him when Craig Pridemore was clearly a better candidate still bugs me.

  •  Mara Liasson (0+ / 0-)

    recently predicted on NPR that the Democrats would lose the Senate.  She said it almost in passing as if it were a given.  You have to consider the source, of course, but this seems to indicate that the cons are pretty confident they'll take over both houses of Congress.

    Where are we most vulnerable?  We'll lose a seat in ND, I guess.  Where else?  

    •  . (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, LordMike

      We'll probably lose seats in Nebraska and North Dakota.

      Tossups that we hold are Missouri, Virginia, and Montana.

      Tossups that Republican hold are Arizona and Nevada.

      Indiana and Maine are Republican held seats that will be competitive if the incumbents get tea-bagged to death, while Massachusetts also has the potential to be competitive depending on who the Democrats nominate and the national atmosphere.

      We're at 53 seats right now, so taking into consideration the likely losses in NE and ND we're at 51. We'd have to lose two more in order to lose control of the Senate (remember, VP is tie-breaker). It's about a 50-50 change we'll lose control, IMO.

      21, Nice Calm Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood), TX-23 (School), TX-10 (Home); SSP: wmayes

      by wwmiv on Sat May 07, 2011 at 03:32:00 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I think that's the conventional wisdom (0+ / 0-)

      at this point, which of course doesn't make it right. A few weeks ago, inTrade showed Dem chances of holding the Senate at 35%. Not sure what it is now. Nate Silver wrote an article around that time saying that Dems are more likely than not to lose the Senate, but that inTrade and CW were underestimating our chances.

      My guess would be we have about a 45% chance of holding. And that's mostly because we just have more seats up for election next year.

      •  Yeah, a 40 percent chance of holding sounds right (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        itskevin

        I think, at the end of the day, North Dakota and Nebraska are almost certainly goners. The next worst are Montana and Missouri, both of which I'd place right around Tilt R to toss-up. Beyond those, though, I think you're looking at toss-ups or better. Virginia almost looks Lean D to me.

        For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

        by andyroo312 on Sat May 07, 2011 at 04:27:52 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  That means nothing. (0+ / 0-)

      It will have no effect on the races in the end.

  •  Our old friend atdleft... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, LordMike

    Sends his salutations and passed along a link to his blog where he dissects the Democratic map for Nevada, as a means of tiding us over until he has some spare time to join up with us at the new site.

    Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

    by SaoMagnifico on Sat May 07, 2011 at 11:56:27 PM PDT

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