Many people are saying that the vote on the Ryan budget will doom Republicans. We always talk about how something "puts a smile" on the face of one party. Certain actions will allow one party to rule forever.
But here's the thing: if the economy is stagnant in 2012, then nobody will care. If salaries stay stagnant or even shrink, Obama will lose, the Senate will go GOP, and the House would stay Republican, and they might gain even MORE seats (although not as likely as staying at 240ish).
People will be voting in people they disagree with, but THEY DON'T CARE. And nothing you do can make them care.
It's fun to think that one vote on one policy can change everything. But sadly, it never happens. Democrats lost big in 2010 because of the economy. For a party in charge of unified government during a very weak recovery, we did amazingly well.
And for the love of God, please stop blaming the Citizens United ruling for the GOP win. Once you spend a certain amount, spending more does nothing. We talk about how the Kochs are going to spend lots of money in the WI recalls and will succeed in changing the results. With the superior GOP messaging, they will apparently trick people to vote against their interests and put the GOP in charge.
Okay, what's wrong with this picture? First, third-party groups were already allowed to spend large amounts of money on races around the country. The court ruling didn't change anything in that regard. It was always legal for the Kochs, or anybody, to do that. And the Kochs have always been libertarian activists with a lot of money. Why do you hate them now?
Second, the GOP message isn't invincible. Democrats are still a major party that wins 50% of all US elections in the long run. Think about it this way: in 2006 and 2008, the GOP had the same message it does right now. All the same money, all the same interests, everything. And they lost big. If they're such diabolical geniuses, why did they lose? People aren't geniuses in waves.
But you might say, "Oh, it was the Bush administration! No Republican could win after that!" That doesn't explain anything. If the GOP message is so powerful, it should have worked anyway. If the message supposedly works despite majorly unpopular decisions and horrid incompetence, than the majorly unpopular decisions and horrid incompetence of Bush shouldn't have mattered.
But political science proves that 98% of what matters is the economy. The only exception is major scandal (and I mean MAJOR, like Watergate, not Abramoff) or war, which right now is downplayed relative to other issues. I mean, Osama Bin Laden's death is huge, but it will not be the prime issue in 2012.
Many people here ridicule political science, saying it's inexact and obsolete. Well, it isn't. It accounts for all possible situations, and it usually lines up. You can't fight the fundamentals. And almost all models line up to show a basic trend. And all trends pointed to a Democratic loss last year.
Now, models aren't perfect. They're not oracles. They can't predict every single race. But they can easily predict which way the wind blows. And if 9 out of 10 models predict a loss, focus on the 9 losses rather than the 1 win.
If the economy had been booming in 2008, McCain would have won big. That's right: basic political science shows that if the economy had been favorable to the GOP in 2008, people would have voted for Palin to be VP. And by a wide margin, too. Sure, it would have hurt them at the margins, but if you're very far ahead, the margins won't matter.
Many political pundits and followers think minor, meaningless things, like campaign visits, word choice, debates, sensationalism, and superior messaging, will change whole elections. Fundamentals matter. Okay, yes, occasionally a candidate can come in and perform far worse than the norm, and various campaigning can change the margins slightly, but it won't save an election unless it's extremely close.
If polls show that you are going to lose, you will lose. The only exception is if polling is erratic and/or with lots of undecided voters (like the Illinois governor's race last year). But almost always, being behind in all general election polls means a loss. Just hoping the polls are wrong isn't a reliable method.
Throughout the election season, I was ridiculed for thinking Feingold had no chance in the election. Whenever I commented, people would call me a concern troll, and they would desperately try to convince me I was wrong. My favorite was when someone just said "You're wrong." with no reason to say why I was wrong.
Ron Johnson was ahead by 4-8 points, and above 50%, in every poll against Feingold. But people here never gave up hope. "You haven't seen the latest ad." "Wait until Feingold whips him in the debates!" "The polls are wrong. It was taken on a sunny day where the only people inside were sports fanatics and old people!" "WI has same-day registration." Well, in the end, the final result was...Johnson by 4 points. Why? Because of the economy. And Johnson was a really good candidate. Although he had some controversial moments, he handled himself very well, not making a career out of gaffes, like Ken Buck and Sharron Angle.
Now, I never loved Russ Feingold. Sure, he's a Democrat, and therefore a million times better than Johnson. But I never understood his appeal. They say he's an independent voice, but I don't like independent voices. I like my Senators predictable and supportive of the establishment. A politician can disagree with his party, but he shouldn't make his career on doing so.
And I will NEVER forgive him for his vote against financial reform. I lost all respect for him that day. It showed that not only was he independent, he was SO independent.
Here's the thing. No major speeches, messaging, big plans, or unpopular GOP shenanigans will change 2012. Maybe at the margins, but if things dip low enough, the margins won't matter.
If salaries don't increase, we are fucked. It's that simple. And right now, the recovery is slow because of the financial crisis we just came out of.
Sure, we could have used a bigger stimulus, but all that would have done is prevent the bottom from falling out. Even a heavy $1 trillion stimulus would have been over by this point. And the recovery still would have been slow.
So yes, Republicans suck. But being a major party in the US, they will ALWAYS come back. It's what happens in a two-party system.