It has become ever clearer to me that as our economy starts going down the pot, Democrats are poised for apocalyptic losses in all areas state and federal. Here's how I think it goes down:
2011 races
1. House Specials
NY-26 Special:
Jack Davis(TP)-36%
Jane Corwin(R/C/IP)-35%
Kathy Hochul(D)-29%
CA-36 Special:
Debra Bowen(D)-27%
Janice Hahn(D)-24%
Mike Webb(R)-19%
Marcy Winograd(D)-9%
Mike Gin(R)-6%
Dan Adler(D)-4%
Lorraine Goodwin(D)-4%
Kit Bobko(R)-3%
Stephen Eisele(R)-2%
George Newberry(R)-1%
Craig Huey(R)-1%
CA-36 Special Runoff:
Debra Bowen(D)-53%
Janice Hahn(D)-47%
NV-2 Special:
Kate Marshall(D)-51%
Brian Krolicki(R)-32%
Mark Amodei(R)-10%
Greg Brower(R)-4%
Sharron Angle(R)-2%
Kirk Lippold(R)-1%
Dem +1, Tea Party +1
2. Gubernatorial Races
KY-GOV:
David Lewis Williams/Richard Dwight Farmer Junior(R)-49%
Steven Lynn Beshear/Jerry Edwin Abramson(D)-48%
Louis Gatewood Galbraith/Dea Riley(I)-3%
LA-GOV:
Piyush Jindal(R)-59%
Cathryn Caroline Fayard(D)-33%
John Georges(D)-7%
Daniel Northcutt(I)-1%
MS-GOV:
Phillip Bryant(R)-66%
Johnny DuPree(D)-33%
Shawn O'Hara(Reform)-1%
WV-GOV:
Earl Ray Tomblin(D)-55%
William Maloney(R)-44%
Robert Henry Baber(M)-1%
GOP +1
2012 Races
1. United States Senate Races to Watch
CT-SEN:
Susan Bysiewicz(D)-57%
Michael Fedele(R)-43%
FL-SEN:
Adam Hasner(R)-51%
Bill Nelson(D)-49%
MA-SEN:
Alan Khazei(D)-52%
Scott Brown(R)-48%
MI-SEN:
Thad McCotter(R)-53%
Debbie Stabenow(D)-47%
MO-SEN:
Sarah Steelman(R)-54%
Claire McCaskill(D)-46%
MT-SEN:
Dennis Rehberg(R)-52%
Jon Tester(D)-48%
NE-SEN:
Jon Bruning(R)-60%
Benny Nelson(D)-40%
NJ-SEN:
Joseph Pennachio(R)-51%
Robert Menendez(D)-49%
NM-SEN:
Greg Sowards(R)-51%
Martin Heinrich(D)-49%
ND-SEN:
Brian Kalk(R)-71%
Jasper Schneider(D)-29%
OH-SEN:
Kevin Coughlin(R)-53%
Sherrod Brown(D)-47%
PA-SEN:
Samuel Rohrer(R)-52%
Robert Casey Junior(D)-48%
VA-SEN:
George Allen(R)-54%
Timothy Kaine(D)-46%
WA-SEN:
David Reichert(R)-51%
Maria Cantwell(D)-49%
Resulting in a GOP net gain of +10
2. Gubernatorial Races to Watch
MO-GOV:
Peter D. Kinder(R)-53%
Jeremiah Wilson Nixon(D)-47%
MO-GOV:
Richard Hill(R)-55%
Steve Bullock(D)-45%
NH-GOV:
Ovide LaMontagne(R)-51%
John H. Lynch(D)-49%
NC-GOV:
Patrick Lloyd McCrory(R)-57%
Beverly Eaves Perdue(D)-43%
WA-GOV:
Robert McKenna(R)-53%
Jay Robert Inslee(D)-47%
WV-GOV:
Earl Ray Tomblin(D)-54%
Clark Barnes(R)-46%
GOP +5
3. United States House of Representatives Pickups
Democrats(+2): NY-25, TX-27
Republicans(+72): AZ-7, AZ-8, AR-4, CA-11, CA-18, CA-20, CA-47, CA-51, CO-7, CT-2, CT-4, CT-5, GA-2, GA-12, IN-2, IA-1, IA-2, IA-3, KY-3, KY-6, ME-1, ME-2, MA-3, MA-5, MA-6, MA-10, MI-5, MI-9, MI-15, MN-1, MN-7, MO-3, MO-5, NJ-6, NJ-9, NJ-12, NM-1, NM-3, NY-1, NY-4, NY-9, NY-22, NY-23, NY-26, NY-27, NC-7, NC-8, NC-11, NC-13, OH-9, OH-10, OH-13, OK-2, OR-1, OR-4, OR-5, PA-4, PA-12, PA-13, PA-17, RI-1, TN-5, TX-5, TX-15, TX-25, UT-2, VA-11, WA-2, WA-6, WA-9, WV-3, WI-3
Resulting in a GOP net gain of +70
4. United States Presidency
Republican Ticket: Donald John Trump/Richard John Santorum
Democratic Ticket: Barack Hussein Obama/John Forbes Kerry
Independent Ticket: Ralph Nader/Henry Ross Perot
Trump/Santorum(389 EV's)(54%): AL, AK, AZ, AR, CO, FL, GA, ID, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY
Obama/Kerry(139 EV's)(37%): CA, DC, DE, HI, IL, MA, MD, NY, RI
Nader/Perot(10 EV's)(9%): CT, VT
Those races I didn't mention were held by the incumbent party. In several states, I see Democrats getting demoted to 3rd party status. Pretty soon, Democrats will be the equivalent of the old Whigs. These are my thoughts, and I'd love to hear yours.