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Senate:

IN-Sen: I think I'm just too amused by this quote from Lugar's PD to really write this piece up: "I encourage all Republican leaders to rally around the Dick Lugar flag now." Ah yes, the "Dick Lugar flag." That's a keeper. Okay, well, anyway, the real news here is that Lugar is now directly comparing his primary opponent, Treasurer Richard Mourdock, to Sharron Angle and Christine O'Donnell, saying that Republicans risk getting "duped" now like they supposedly were then. That's really not how I read either of those primaries, though—Republican voters in NV and DE may have made the wrong choice, but they weren't duped. And I doubt teabaggers like being accused of that in the first place.

ME-Sen: So I'm going to let the New York Times summarize this one:

The Justice Department plans to intervene in a whistle-blower lawsuit charging that one of the nation's largest for-profit college companies, the Education Management Corporation, defrauded the government by illegally paying recruiters based on the number of students they enrolled, according to a Securities and Exchange Commission filing on Monday.

Why am I filing this under ME-Sen? Because, as Dirigo Blue points out, the chairman of the company in question is Jock McKernan, husband of Sen. Olympia Snowe and former governor of Maine. (And yes, he really does go by "Jock." What do you expect—the guy went to Dartmouth.) We could debate all day whether it's fair or not if one spouse's issues affect the other, and who even knows if this will make even a ripple in the race. But, fair or not, it might, which is why I'm mentioning it.

NJ-Sen: Ian Linker, a Republican attorney who basically sounds like Some Dude, says he plans to challenge Sen. Bob Menendez next year. Okay.

NV-Sen: It's not like Dean Heller has a choice, so he's going to meet his fate with arms open wide:

Once Heller joins the Senate, Reid could call up for a vote the House budget blueprint that the chamber passed last month. The nonbinding plan would cut $6.2 trillion from yearly federal deficits over the coming decade. The plan makes changes to Medicare and Medicaid that some Democrats say would prove unpopular in next year's elections.

"I'm not worried about it. I voted for it once. I'm not going to come over here and vote against it," Heller said. "I'm proud to be the only member of Congress who will get to vote for it twice.

Gubernatorial:

AZ-Gov: Hah! Gov. Jan Brewer, just weeks after saying she was probably done with politics, is looking to pull an Alberto Fujimori. Whodat? Why, he's the corrupt Peruvian ex-president now serving a twenty-five year sentence for crimes against humanity, of course! Before his downfall, though, Fujimori found a clever way to evade his country's constitutional ban on seeking a third term. Per Wikipedia:

The 1993 constitution limits a presidency to two terms. Shortly after Fujimori began his second term, his supporters in Congress passed a law of "authentic interpretation" which effectively allowed him to run for another term in 2000. A 1998 effort to repeal this law by referendum failed. In late 1999, Fujimori announced that he would run for a third term. Peruvian electoral bodies, which were politically sympathetic to Fujimori, accepted his argument that the two-term restriction did not apply to him, as it was enacted while he was already in office.

Sneaky! (It didn't last long, though: Fujimori fled the country amid a scandal shortly after the election. Now he rots in jail.) Anyhow, Arizona's state constitution also has a similar prohibition for its chief executives:

The Arizona Constitution limits governors from serving more than two consecutive terms and specifies that the maximum number of terms "shall include any part of a term served."

Entertainingly, Brewer is claiming there's an "ambiguity" to this provision, and that her first term shouldn't count because she wasn't elected to the office. (As Secretary of State, she took then-Gov. Janet Napolitano's spot after the latter became Director of Homeland Security.) Everyone else (including a former AG who says he "loves" Brewer) thinks that this is nuts. (One guy thinks it's just a way for Brewer to stave off lame-duckness.)

Relatedly, Republican SoS Ken Bennett has filed paperwork for a 2014 gubernatorial exploratory committee.

IN-Gov: Hamilton County Commissioner Jim Wallace (whom David Jarman once described as "one step up from Some Dude") officially got into the GOP gubernatorial field yesterday, where he'll presumably make a tasty snack for Rep. Mike Pence. Please prove me wrong, good buddy!

KY-Gov: Steve Beshear continues to kick David Williams' ass. The Dem gov raised $200K in the second half of April, compared to just $77K for his Republican counterpart. The GOP primary is May 17. While Williams is favored, I wouldn't be surprised if he has a pretty limpy finish.

LA-Gov: Lamar Parmentel at Daily Kingfish suggests that two old names are working their way through the rumor mill as possible challengers to Gov. Bobby Jindal (against whom no one is running right now): ex-Gov. Kathleen Blanco (who still has a $2.2 million warchest) and former New Orleans Mayor Marc Morial. Blanco won a nailbiter in 2003 but declined to seek re-election four years later after Republicans and the tradmed decided to turn her into a Hurricane Katrina villain. Meanwhile, Morial (also a former state senator) served two terms as mayor and unsuccessfully tried to pass an initiative that would have allowed him to run a third time (before Mike Bloomberg made this sort of thing even uncooler).

VA-Gov: Bob McDonnell: Amazing governor, or merely the greatest of all time? That new WaPo poll has him at a 62-26 job approval rating. I expect him to run for Batman after his current term is up.

WV-Gov: The AP rounds up some of the outside spending taking place in the West Virginia gubernatorial primaries… but it really hasn't amounted to much.

House:

AZ-07: This is just creepy. Republican Some Dude Gabriela Saucedo Mercer claims that the mayor of Nogales told her that Rep. Raul Grijalva "doesn't show up in Nogales because people want to lynch him." The mayor, Democrat Arturo Garino, denies every saying such a thing… but it's pretty fucking disturbing that Mercer would even say such a thing in the first place. Still, it's never a surprise to see eliminationist rhetoric on the right.

IL-18: So maybe you saw this, but did you see this? This one is funny, too.

IN-05: Dan, Dan the watermelon man, if he can't do it… well, a lot of people probably can. The remarkable Dan Burton says he'll run for another term, despite winning his primary last year with a truly impressive 30%. Will Indiana Republicans unite behind a single challengers? Or will they allow him to, as they say, pull a Burton?

MO-01: An interesting post on the Arch City Chronicle notes that the Voting Age Population of the new 1st CD, which in theory is a majority-minority district, is actually plurality white: 48.3% white to 45.5% black. The author speculates that the hypothetical primary electorate could wind up being almost evenly split as well, and advises Russ Carnahan to "stop whining and start running" against Rep. Lacy Clay.

VA-10: This looks like an interesting get for Team Blue: Retired Air Force General John Douglass says he'll challenge Rep. Frank Wolf next year in this swingy district. Republicans in the state legislature will try to shore Wolf up in redistricting, but as long as they're intent on drawing an 8-3 map, there's not a ton they can do for him. (And of course, who even knows how this battle will play out.) If Douglass has the chops of guys like Joe Sestak, Patrick Murphy, and even Jim Webb, he could make some waves here. The title of "General" alone ought to turn some heads.

Other Races:

Special Elections: Johnny Longtorso turns this one around ASAP:

Alabama's HD-105 ended with a surprisingly close result; Republican David Sessions defeated Constitution Party candidate Bill Atkinson by only 54-46.

In Maine's SD-07, Democrat Cynthia Dill easily held the seat, defeating Republican Louis Maietta by a 68-32 margin.

In Massachusetts, Democrat John Lawn defeated Republican James Dixon by a 68-32 margin for the 10th Middlesex district, while in the 6th Worcester district, the Alicea/Durant do-over ended with an actual winner this time: Republican Peter Durant defeated incumbent Democrat Geraldo Alicea by a slim 55-vote margin.

Wisconsin Recall: Wisconsin's Government Accountability Board has certified the signatures in four recall races, all Republicans: Dan Kapanke, Randy Hopper, Luther Olsen, and Sheila Harsdorf. But as TPM explains:

This action does not by itself trigger the recalls—challenges to the signatures will be reviewed at official board meetings on May 23 and May 31, with the board on a timeline to hold the recalls on July 12.

"So our review is limited to what's on the face of the petition," said Magney. "Is there a signature, a name, and a complete address. We don't check to see whether Joe Smith really lives at 123 Main Street, we don't see whether he's been disqualified from voting, we don't see whether that's really his signature."

Wisconsin Sup. Ct.: With the recount completed in 71 of 72 counties (and 30% of the final county, infamous Waukesha), JoAnne Kloppenburg has made up 355 votes on David Prosser. She still trails by 6,962, an impossible sum to make up.

Grab Bag:

Voter Suppression: We previously mentioned the odious, multi-pronged voter suppression bill that was moving through Florida's state legislature. Well, unfortunately and unsurprisingly, the bill passed and now goes to Gov. Rick Scott for his signature. ThinkProgress has more details on exactly what's in the bill.

Polls: For the first time ever, Gallup says that a majority of Republicans would like to see the creation of a third party. It sounds like this shift is coming from teabaggers who crave greater purity rather than independent-leaning "moderates" who are growing embarrassed by the Grand Old Party. Of course, this is never going to happen, but it does seem to indicate a growing number of disaffected Republican voters.

WATN?: Gov. Pat Quinn has appointed former IL-10 candidate Dan Seals as an assistant director of the state's Department of Commerce and Economic Opportunity.

Redistricting Roundup:

Colorado: The legislative session ends today, and an agreement between Republicans and Democrats on new congressional maps seems as distant as ever. If no compromise can be reached, we could see a special session, or the issue could just go straight to court.

Minnesota: Tony Angelo, using Dave's Redistricting App, estimates the Obama vote for each district on the GOP's proposed new congressional map. Important note: Angelo (and most other commentators, such as Derek Wallbank of MinnPost) view the new 8th as Dem Colin Peterson's district and the new 7th as GOPer Chip Cravaack's. This is a little confusing because Peterson currently holds the 7th and Cravaack the 8th.

Mississippi: Republicans are desperately trying to convince a three-judge panel to draw its own maps for the state's legislative elections this November, rather than used maps that were only each passed by a single chamber earlier this year. The court previously said they were inclined to do the latter, and with time running out for candidates to file, it certainly is the easier (and cheaper) option.

Texas: Another lawsuit, and this one seems to be asking the impossible. The Mexican American Legislative Caucus wants a federal judge to require that new maps be drawn "based on the assumption that there are more Hispanics living in the state than the Census shows." That sounds a lot like statistical sampling, which was expressly forbidden by the Supreme Court for the purposes of reapportionment in a cased called Department of Commerce v. United States House. I haven't read the full case, though, so I wonder if the MALC might be able to thread a needle and argue that sampling is permitted for redistricting even if it cannot be used for reapportionment.

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This diary is brought to you by DK Elections, an official Daily Kos sub-site. Please read our Mission Statement. Our focus is on electoral politics rather than policy. Welcome aboard!


Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Wed May 11, 2011 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Schock! (7+ / 0-)

    Saving America one ab at a time.

    19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

    by ndrwmls10 on Wed May 11, 2011 at 05:21:43 AM PDT

  •  Voter Suppression (5+ / 0-)

    Via Kevin Drum, this one concerns my favorite state, Texas. I'm not sure if this is kind of new or not, but apparently, in the midst of trying to make it harder for likely left-leaning groups to vote, the Republicans in the state legislature have decided to make it more impossible for non-residents to register residents. As the article from Patrick Caldwell, quoted by Drum, notes:

    The other measure is less overt but should have an equally powerful impact in blocking voters' participation. The state House approved an amendment that only allows Texas voters to register new voters in the state. Previously, anyone could collect voter-registration forms, but the new bill will restrict that activity to only people from the state of Texas. Someone registered to vote in a different state would no longer be able to work as a volunteer registrar, damaging Democrats far more than Republicans as the left is more reliant on the resources of national organizations to parachute organizers in from out of state.

    If only Texans can register voters, there will be fewer mobilization efforts to boost key Democratic constituencies such as college students or Hispanics. Political groups on college campuses often mount drives to register their fellow students, even though the organizers of those efforts still send absentee ballots back home to a different state. Hispanics are also essential for Democrats' desire to one day win another seat in state office, but first they will need to actually be registered to vote. Hispanics are almost 38 percent of Texas' population, according to the 2010 census, but they constitute only 20 percent of registered voters. National organizations could add their expertise and manpower to local efforts to bring Hispanic voters into the fold, but these new restrictions will make get out the vote drives difficult to conduct on a wide scale.

    If I had to guess, this isn't nearly as bad as it seems. For one thing, the state is so damn big, and the areas that the Democrats need to tap in order to be competitive are probably so overflowing with potential volunteers, that all sorts of roles could be fulfilled only by state residents. And if that's not true, can't they just make it so that one group, Texans, registers the voters and the other group, everyone who isn't a Texan, do everything else, like door-to-door knocking or phone banking.

    Still, it's bad, if only because it tries to throw up a truly ridiculous road block that could lead to all sorts of challenges about registration. Indeed, there doesn't appear to be any legitimate reason for this besides screwing with Democrats. Will it survive any sort of court challenge, if there is one? And there better be one. I'm no lawyer (not yet, anyway), but I can't imagine the Democrats will take this without a fight.

    In a more general sense, this is even more of a reason to hope for the destruction of the Republican party, isn't it? As Brad DeLong says, burn the Republican party to the ground and salt the earth so that it never grows back.

    •  Thank God for VRA (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, MichaelNY, gabjoh, KingofSpades

      Obama and Holder are not going to let this voter suppression crap happen in VRA states like Texas and Florida (it's only certain counties in Florida, but enough of them that it's impractical for the state to have separate rules just for those counties).  They'll fight it.

      At least, that's what I expect.

      43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Wed May 11, 2011 at 08:14:14 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  it just hurts... (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, dc1000, MichaelNY, KingofSpades

      ...to see a state like Texas pull extra clout and screw the group that gave it to 'em outta representation.  I am originally a Californian, and to watch Texas pull 4 extra seats by immigration and pretend it was through job growth just hurts.

      Texas' population grows just like California's: with immigration playing a strong roll, adding at least 50% to natural increases.  Yet, California couldn't pull anymore seats out of this census (nevermind the state's own count being 1 million higher than the census).  At least when California gets representation, it's actually representative of the state's demographics.  Texas is aiming to keep the state white and republican, completely ignoring a main growth factor.

      I really can't wait for the day when Mexicans find their voice and start using their numbers to effect change.  The powers that be are shitting themselves trying to deny them that.  Despite overall low turnout, they are still quietly causing a ruckus.  Nice.

  •  Haha Batman. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    That made me lol for real.

  •  Seen Schock a few times around town (18+ / 0-)

    How sad that a good-looking, successful, nice boy like him hasn't met the right woman yet.  I'm sure it's only a matter of time.

  •  Re: FL voting bill (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Zornorph, MichaelNY, Larsstephens

    Does anyone know whether the bill will be challenged. I think I heard Wasserman-Schultz said they would do it immediately. At this moment, however, I'm more immediately concerned about the anti-voting bill in Wisconsin since it could affect the recall elections - I'm hoping that too will be immediately challenged, to at least get a stay until after the July 12 elections.

    Also, I wonder what the recall laws are for FL governors.

    Thanks.

    •  It won't affect the recall elections.. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      RhodaA, MichaelNY

      The new requirements won't take effect until next year.  In fact, the state is thinking about moving back their primary in order to make the law compliant with the 2012 federal elections.

      GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

      by LordMike on Wed May 11, 2011 at 07:14:22 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  FL (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      tietack, AUBoy2007, RhodaA

      There is no mechanism to challenge the FL voting bill.  Nothing in there is illegal or not done in other states.  It just rolls back some stuff that had been put in place.  There's no question that the FL GOP did it for their own advantage, but it's not illegal.
      And I'm not 100% certain, but I'm fairly confident that you can't recall people in FL.  Even if you could, the FL Dem party is in such bad shape, they don't have anyone obvious to go against Scott, anyway.

      •  Wrong (5+ / 0-)

        There are things in the Florida bill that are brand new, it's not all rollback of Crist reforms.  Some of them directly affect voting rights.  And yes there's a remedy, five Florida counties require VRA preclearance.  So this ialmost certainly is going to have to get DOJ's blessing as applied to those five counties, which really means the whole state since I don't see that the bill provides exceptions for VRA counties.

        43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Wed May 11, 2011 at 08:31:23 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Thanks (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike, MichaelNY

          Which 5 counties require VRA preclearance (Dade, Broward ...?), and preclearance for what - sorry - I'm not up on this; just hoping beyond hope that it gets a legal challenge. I also don't see how a US Constitutional challenge could not be made, e.g., seniors and college students affected more than others.

        •  Which things are new? (0+ / 0-)

          Thanks in advance.

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Wed May 11, 2011 at 12:45:55 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  At least 2 things (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            The signature matching requirement for absentee ballots is one, it wasn't Crist-era and may have predated the Voting Rights Act.

            And the name/address change provision changes a requirement that goes back to the early days of VRA, I don't know if it predated the imposition of preclearance on the 5 Florida counties.

            I bet there are others, this bill wasn't meant merely to roll back Crist reforms.  I'd have to study more closely to pin down all of them.  But finding one or two is enough to trigger VRA challenges.  Indeed, that these things affect voting rights means it triggers preclearance.

            43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Wed May 11, 2011 at 12:55:23 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  If a Democrat posed on a magazine (7+ / 0-)

    We'd never hear the end of from Republicans about how wrong it was that the person was trying to act like a celebrity and show off while the country is having problems.

    •  Well, Democrats tore into Palin for posing (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      for a running magazine.

      And no one said anything when Gillibrand pranced around for Vogue.

      Hillary Clinton's Liberal Ranking http://www.dailykos.com/story/2007/8/10/122232/619

      by tigercourse on Wed May 11, 2011 at 08:04:34 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Pranced around..... Oh my. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        dc1000, gabjoh

        I think it's a matter of substance.

        19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

        by ndrwmls10 on Wed May 11, 2011 at 08:43:20 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  That was because of the double standard (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Republicans (Palin included) claimed Obama was acting like a celebrity, yet she was in a magazine posing like a celebrity.

        And Gillibrand's article in Vogue was about her political career, it didn't come off as celebrity.

        •  Maybe they were referring (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          To this part:

          Here is something you don’t see every day: a United States senator, looking like a million bucks in a little black dress and high heels, jitterbugging in a Manhattan department store. It could mean only one thing: Fashion’s Night Out. It is a Friday night in early September, and Gillibrand is at the Elie Tahari boutique at Saks, the first of her three stops through the mad crush that has taken over the city, when the music gets cranked and a group of professional dancers take the floor. One of the guys grabs Gillibrand’s hand, and she gamely heads to the dance floor and begins to cut it up like a seasoned pro (all those gay friends!). Her gracefulness is striking. But it also highlights something else: Gillibrand is loose and fun.

          However, these are important campaign skills for a politician.  I'm not kidding--they probably spend a lot of time at parties, being fun can only help at the margins.  Anyway, it was definitely a Vogue article--talking about her clothes, her weight loss, family background (not distinct from political background in Gillibrand's case)--but I certainly don't think there was anything demeaning about her participation.  

          25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

          by Xenocrypt on Wed May 11, 2011 at 11:58:39 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  It was in the back of a running magazine, (0+ / 0-)

          Kathleen Sebelius was is in the same magazine this month. It's just an article where entertainers, business people and pols talk about why they like to run. Also, it was from before she ran for VP.

          Hillary Clinton's Liberal Ranking http://www.dailykos.com/story/2007/8/10/122232/619

          by tigercourse on Wed May 11, 2011 at 02:50:23 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  I think Brewer has a credible claim. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    dc1000

    I mean, I'd bet money against her eventual success but it's not outlandish.  And good for Lugar for saying what Democrats haven't had the guys to say, that Tea Partiers are basically grifters.

    It's better to curse the darkness than light a candle. --Whoever invented blogs, c.1996

    by Rich in PA on Wed May 11, 2011 at 06:52:57 AM PDT

    •  I don't think so (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, MichaelNY

      From my diary last week:

      No member of the executive department shall hold that office for more than two consecutive terms. This limitation on the number of terms of consecutive service shall apply to terms of office beginning on or after January 1, 1993. No member of the executive department after serving the maximum number of terms, which shall include any part of a term served, may serve in the same office until out of office for no less than one full term

      Good policy is good politics

      by AZ Independent on Wed May 11, 2011 at 07:58:49 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  She could make an equal-protection claim (0+ / 0-)

        She didn't run for that first term, first off, and the "any part" language would create different maximum possible days-in-office for different people.  I think that second issue is more interesting, legally.  As I noted, I wouldn't bet on her winning this case if she even brings it, but I wouldn't bet my life savings on her losing.

        It's better to curse the darkness than light a candle. --Whoever invented blogs, c.1996

        by Rich in PA on Wed May 11, 2011 at 08:07:08 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  TX-SEN (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ArkDem14, shpilk, itskevin

    Sanchez makes it official: http://www.cnn.com/...

    •  Potentially a game changer (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, itskevin

      Sanchez has gravitas and respect: he could be formidable.

      It could bring real change; the GOTV for Latino voters is potentially massive, a demographic that has poor GOTV - and bring in House and State numbers for Democrats across the State.

      Incredibly good news.

      Republicans totally abandoned conservatism in the 1980s ..

      by shpilk on Wed May 11, 2011 at 07:53:34 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Unless the Republican nominee beats (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        up nuns in his spare time (on camera), the Republcian here will win.

        Hillary Clinton's Liberal Ranking http://www.dailykos.com/story/2007/8/10/122232/619

        by tigercourse on Wed May 11, 2011 at 08:02:03 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  We had scenarios akin to that every recent cycle (6+ / 0-)

          We want a good recruit like Sanchez to take advantage of a GOP implosion if one happens.  And it's not been so rare recently.  There was Mark Foley in 2006, Castle losing a primary to O'Donnell in '10, and Scott McInnis imploding in CO-Gov in '10.  And on the other side, in Foley's same district, his successor Dem Tim Mahoney imploded at the last minute.  And all but Foley involved wave elections where the wave favored the party destroyed in the scandal or primary.

          Yeah Texas remains "GOP favored," but since the GOP candidates are largely little-known figures, you never know what skeletons they have that could come out post-primary.

          43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Wed May 11, 2011 at 08:36:08 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Agreed (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, The Caped Composer

          I think any of the Republicans mentioned in this race will wind up defeating Sanchez. That's not to say Sanchez isn't a strong candidate - he's about as top-tier as it gets on the Texas D bench. I just don't think the demographics are nearly there yet for a Democrat to prevail statewide, esp. in a US Senate race. I think Leppert or Roger Williams would defeat him very comfortably, with Cruz or Michael Williams likely to muster around Cornyn's decent '08 performance. I think only a Debra Medina-type Republican could be defeated statewide right now.

          For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

          by andyroo312 on Wed May 11, 2011 at 10:24:22 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  If Sanchez exceeds Noriega's '06 total (8+ / 0-)

        e.g. gets to 46%, that should confirm demographic trends. And that would start to set the stage for someone like Julian Castro to run for and win TX-Gov say in '18.

        "I hope; therefore, I can live."
        For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

        by tietack on Wed May 11, 2011 at 08:08:55 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  They also said (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        tietack, MichaelNY

        the same about White in the beginning.....

        •  White was not a General, n/t (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          aggou

          "I hope; therefore, I can live."
          For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

          by tietack on Wed May 11, 2011 at 11:17:50 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  That's true, (0+ / 0-)

            but really, whenever a party it seems gets someone to "jump" in, and run for an office, most of the time their top tiers fail.  

            The only notible exception I can think of is Brown in MA, I mean Republicans touted Fiorina in CA yet she lost big, Dems touted White in TX, but he lost big too.  

            It makes me wonder why they tout them as "big" even when they know they're going to lose.... Money? idk.

            •  Your claim is (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              That heavily-recruited and touted candidates always lose except for Brown in MA?  For one thing, I don't see how you could believe the former, and for another, was Scott Brown heavily-recruited and touted?  Of course parties are always going to hype their own chances in a range of races and sometimes those bets work out, but other times a candidate really is top-tier and really does clear the field and win easily.  John Hoeven, Mark Warner, Tom Udall, John Boozman...

              25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

              by Xenocrypt on Wed May 11, 2011 at 11:34:33 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  I didn't say always.... (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                I said most of the time. Also, at least two of those candidates towards the end that you mentioned were from Republican states anyway. So they already had the upper hand. Plus all of them, if I remember correctly one in extremely good years for each of their parties politically.

                I mean if you have other candidates that were heavily touted, and one I'd be happy for you to post, so we can add those too, preferably from states where their party is traditionally the underdog.   I know I'm missing some....

                •  Oh I see (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  You didn't specify that you meant states where the party is an underdog.  Then I would actually agree--there's an extent to which candidates matter, of course, but pretty much by definition it's not going to contradict a state's partisan lean.  (Otherwise, it wouldn't have a partisan lean.)  I am sometimes amused when I remember the various breathless/concerned descriptions of the Republicans super-diverse, NorCal-to-Socal statewide ticket and how the Dem statewide ticket might be in trouble with all those old white people from the Bay Area.  As if one voter in, what, 100 could describe a party's statewide slate's demographics and origin...

                  25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

                  by Xenocrypt on Wed May 11, 2011 at 11:43:40 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Same thing happens in NJ (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    LordMike

                    It always appears in the summer that Republicans have a shot at actually winning, but as the election gets closer, voters start paying attention more, and then the polls widen going into election day.  

          •  Yeah, but when was the last time you can (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            remember a General getting elected to the Senate? Not that many high ranking officers make the jump into office for good reason. They tend to be poor candidates.

            Hillary Clinton's Liberal Ranking http://www.dailykos.com/story/2007/8/10/122232/619

            by tigercourse on Wed May 11, 2011 at 11:35:46 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  Wi voter ID bill (10+ / 0-)

    I have been voting in Wisconsin election since 1979 when I was 18 years old.  In that time the only 2 elections I have ever missed were a school board primary in the early 1980s before I owned a car and it just poured rain that evening and I lived rather far from the polling place so walking in a drenching downpour was not going to happen.

    The other was a down ballot judicial primary where one of the three primary candidates was ruled ineligible to run for the office.  No other offices were on the ballot for that primary so I remained home.

    I relay my lifetime record of voting after reviewing the Wisconsin Voter ID Bill that the GOP is about to enact into law.  I checked my wallet and I had 2 IDs with photos.  The first is my UW-student ID which the GOP explicitly prevents students from using because they are one of the groups the GOP is targeting in their voter suppression efforts.  The second was my driver's license which I just realized has the address from an old apartment on it, making it useless for voting purposes.

    So after voting continuously for 32 years now, the GOP is forcing me to shell out money and the time it takes to get a new photo ID or Drivers License.  To fight non-existent voter fraud.  Talk about an unfunded mandate on voters!

    So the Republican Party is forcing me to spend money before I will be able to vote again in Wisconsin.  This is a de facto unconstitutional poll tax on renters, which I am, and students, which I am.  But then again, I am exactly the type of voter the GOP wants to inconvience in the hopes I won't vote.  Fat chance but there we are.

    "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

    by walja on Wed May 11, 2011 at 07:14:25 AM PDT

  •  RE: Jock and Olympia. (5+ / 0-)

    The teabaggers in the state are making much hay of the situation, so I don't imagine it will go away any time soon:

    http://www.dirigoblue.com/...

    Regards,
    Corporate Dog

    -----
    We didn't elect Obama to be an expedient president. We elected him to be a great one. -- Eugene Robinson

    by Corporate Dog on Wed May 11, 2011 at 07:55:34 AM PDT

    •  Unless she is somehow implicated (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      dc1000

      I don't think it will make any difference in a general election. What may happen in a Republican primary, who knows? But I think she'd be way more likely to lose on an ideological basis than due to this.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Wed May 11, 2011 at 12:53:57 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  RE: Jock and Dartmouth (4+ / 0-)

      As a Big Green alum, two years behind McKernan, I'm hurt, David.  He was dubbed "Jock" long before he reached Hanover.  One of those haughty family things, I'm sure.  His father was captain of the basketball team in 1936, and his son also went to Dartmouth, so he was one of those "legacy" types.

      Not that the name didn't fit.  He was well known by those of us on the other side of the campus activism during the Vietnam War ... a lonely counter-protester.

      grok the "edku" -- edscan's "revelation", 21 January 2009

      by N in Seattle on Wed May 11, 2011 at 01:48:30 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Re: Grijalva (0+ / 0-)

    Those asshat Republicans in AZ-07 we're doing the same damn thing back in 2010 .

    But it looks like instead of trying to deny it, their just embracing it full on.

    Good policy is good politics

    by AZ Independent on Wed May 11, 2011 at 08:01:05 AM PDT

  •  Bachmann may announce May 26 (5+ / 0-)

    http://dailycaller.com/...

    Iowa politicos tell The Daily Caller they expect Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann to announce her campaign for the White House at a Polk County GOP fundraiser the Tea Party star is headlining in Des Moines on May 26.

    “My sense is she’s going to run,” Dave Funk, co-chair of the Polk County GOP in Iowa, told TheDC. Funk is organizing the fundraiser that will host Bachmann, and confirmed to TheDC that the congresswoman will be in Iowa for five days after the event.

    "I hope; therefore, I can live."
    For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

    by tietack on Wed May 11, 2011 at 08:04:53 AM PDT

  •  Dick Lugar (7+ / 0-)

    Like most of the other Hoosiers here, I have a tremendous amount of respect for Senator Lugar, and would be just fine with him taking a foreign policy position in a second Obama Administration.  And I am now really starting to think he's going to lose his primary.

    One problem he might be facing is this is his first competitve election since he ran for his second term in the early 1980s.  Since then (except for the minute and a half he ran for president over a decade ago), he really hasn't had to do the at-times nasty political stuff most of his colleagues have to do from time to time.  He seems a bit tone-deaf, like he's just realizing that many conservatives don't like him.  

    What he doesn't seem to fully realize yet is that his competitive election is not a general in November, but a Republican primary.  In Indiana.  Where there's really no such thing as "too nutty."  To probably a majority of GOP primary voters, someone like Christine O'Donnell is what they're looking for.

    •  He's the only Republican I have an ounce of (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      TofG, HoosierD42

      respect for.

      19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

      by ndrwmls10 on Wed May 11, 2011 at 09:00:03 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  The O'Donnell comments arent directed at voters (4+ / 0-)

      But rather at Conservative insiders in general. Lugar doesnt want to end up like Charlie Crist. He wants to make sure the GOP conservative establishment doesnt leave him and run to Mourdock the way they left Crist for Rubio. He wants to keep the CFG out and to keep Mourdock's face off of the cover of National Review.

      The message he's trying to send to everyone is that Mourdock is a nutter like O'Donnell and cant win and not a conservative like Rubio can.

      Help raise money for disaster relief efforts by searching the web & give the profits from your web searches to charity instead of Google! Click here for Search+Win with Music for Relief

      by izengabe on Wed May 11, 2011 at 11:34:08 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Regarding the CFG (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, borodino21, LordMike

        I saw an interesting point made on one of the Hoosier conservative blogs I was browsing through, though I don't recall which.

        The writer made the suggestion that some Republican activists, and electeds, in the state don't see Lugar as having been very helpful in earlier years where the Republicans here were doing badly. Lugar, after all, didn't even have an opponent in 2006, and from what I remember his campaign was basically non-existent*. That seems to be part of the resentment towards Lugar, that even though he's a Republican he rarely does anything to help out the state-level party, as opposed to guys like Mourdock and Mike Pence who did do a lot of campaigning down to the state legislative level last year.

        This is important, because one of the Republican Hoosier congressmen that lost in 2006 is Chris Chocola, who is now head of the Club for Growth. The CfG doesn't just have 'ideological' reasons for possibly opposing Lugar, they could very well go after him as payback for not helping Chocola.

        * I wasn't very politically engaged that year, so if any Hoosiers remember the '06 Lugar campaign being more lively, please correct me!

        Independent Socialist and Vice-Chair of DKE Cranky Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

        by Bob R Bobson on Wed May 11, 2011 at 11:51:42 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  I've been convinced he will lose (7+ / 0-)

      Almost since the time Mourdock rolled out those county chair endorsements and it became obvious how much of the party establishment was willing to toss Lugar.

      With that noted, I agree with you that his campaign seems a little rusty at the moment, but Lugar has one lucky break, and that's that he's not in a situation like Castle or Murkowski with his opponent suddenly surging in the last stretch of the campaign. Lugar's people know Mourdock and his backers are a serious threat, and they've got about nine months to shake off the cobwebs and get to work. Assuming, of course, that the Recount Commission doesn't throw Charlie White (and the 2010 election results) out on his ass, forcing the Republicans into a convention system instead.

      I think Lugar's already missed one chance to save himself. If he had switched parties earlier this year, I think the Dems by and large would have accepted him, and I do think he could have won a general election as a Democrat. But now Joe Donnelly is in the race, and I don't think he would leave for Lugar's benefit. So we'd end up with Sestak v. Specter II, which Donnelly would probably win just by reminding primary voters of all the important Dem legislation Lugar voted against.

      Lugar's next best choice is to run as an independent. I doubt he will do that.

      Independent Socialist and Vice-Chair of DKE Cranky Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

      by Bob R Bobson on Wed May 11, 2011 at 11:44:31 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Lugar is way too far to the right (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Bob R Bobson

        to be a Democrat. Let's remember that he was a proud Reagan Republican. Running as an independent or retiring were his only two options, other than running for reelection as a Republican.

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Wed May 11, 2011 at 12:57:05 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Indiana Dems will take a conservative (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, LordMike

          Look at the tolerance for Evan Bayh, who coasted on his personal popularity and his institutional dominance. It would have turned out a lot like with Specter, though. Lugar would have needed a clear field to make a party switch work without a hitch, and he obviously doesn't have that now.

          I wish we had some recent Indiana polling that included Lugar's job approval and a partisan breakdown of it. I might be completely wrong here. Let me go see if I can find some older polls.

          Independent Socialist and Vice-Chair of DKE Cranky Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

          by Bob R Bobson on Wed May 11, 2011 at 01:11:54 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Lugar is quite a lot further right (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            jncca, Bob R Bobson

            than Specter was as a Republican, let alone than Evan Bayh was. I'd be quite surprised if there's any data showing that I'm mistaken on this.

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Wed May 11, 2011 at 01:35:16 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I'm not able to find anything (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              LordMike, MichaelNY

              I'm actually really curious to see how a Lugar/Donnelly primary would turn out, since Donnelly is fairly conservative (for a Democrat). The choice would be a moderate, often overlooked Democrat and an ex-Republican. This is a very interesting question to me, and I appreciate your counterpoints!

              I think the differences in ideology are a big contrast between Specter and Lugar, but I think a big difference is also in personal appeal. Lugar, to my knowledge, doesn't have the history of rhetorical and behavioral jackassery that Specter did.

              I think, FWIW, Lugar would also drift left, voting wise, pretty quickly if he did switch. Of course, that didn't help Specter any.

              Independent Socialist and Vice-Chair of DKE Cranky Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

              by Bob R Bobson on Wed May 11, 2011 at 01:54:51 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  I agree on personal character (0+ / 0-)

                Lugar really comes across as a nice guy. I have to take exception to some of his votes, though, and more to the point, so would most Democrats who care about the effects of votes in the Senate.

                Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                by MichaelNY on Thu May 12, 2011 at 12:27:44 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

        •  President Reagan... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike

          Would probably be a conservadem today.

          Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

          by SaoMagnifico on Wed May 11, 2011 at 03:53:27 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  The only way (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, LordMike

      his strategy makes sense is if he's planning to run indie. And I'm not sure even then he'd be able to make it work.

  •  Obama Approval (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TofG, itskevin, MichaelNY, Daman09

    Not sure if someone posted this above, but Obama's approval is up to 60% according to AP/Gfk.

    Let's hope Pollster includes this one this time, as the last poll to show Obama really high is still not included in their regression.

    21, Nice Calm Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood), TX-23 (School), TX-10 (Home); SSP: wmayes

    by wwmiv on Wed May 11, 2011 at 09:11:43 AM PDT

  •  How many of the Freshmen (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin

    can you identify in this picture?

    http://talkingpointsmemo.com/...

    Also, was this the "make a funny face" picture or something?  What is Colleen Hanabusa looking at?  So many questions.

    25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

    by Xenocrypt on Wed May 11, 2011 at 09:14:05 AM PDT

  •  Fujimori (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Ben Schaffer, MichaelNY

    Not really on-topic, but was Fujimori the first politician in recent times to face birthers? (Peru's president must be a native Peruvian, and the accusation was made -- when Fujimori was still quite popular -- that he had been born in Japan and his birth certificate forged. Fujimori's parents are Japanese, but I believe he and all his siblings were born in Peru.)

    Are there examples I don't know about from anywhere else after, I dunno, WWII?

  •  I guess Berg is getting in. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY
  •  So my first comment on the new site (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    David Nir, borodino21, itskevin, MichaelNY

    Is the New York Times shoutout to SSP.

    http://schott.blogs.nytimes.com/...

    Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think it's the first time SSP was mentioned in the gray lady (unless Nate mentioned it). And probably the last.

  •  ND-Sen (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Not really that big of a surprise but Rick Berg is announcing next week he's in.

    http://www.politico.com/...

  •  Ohio redistricting question (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Is Marcia Fudge's 11th district required by the VRA or does it just happen to be majority black?

    I'm having a difficult time drawing a majority VAP black district that doesn't stretch from Cleveland to Akron and elsewhere that's not a huge Dem vote sink.

  •  Ricardo Sanchez confirms for TX-SEN (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, MichaelNY
  •  WI-State Senate: Robert Cowles has an opponent (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, MichaelNY, DCCyclone

    http://www.jsonline.com/...

    Cannot say much about this Langan fellow. I guess he does have some electoral experience, but he does not seem to be of the caliber of other candidates.   So, unless someone else comes forward, I am leaving this as Likely R.

    All Wisconsin, All the TIme

    by glame on Wed May 11, 2011 at 11:56:10 AM PDT

  •  in case it hasn't been mentioned (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    PPP finds Kaine leading Allen 46-44.  both have their parties behind them, and kaine has a 45-40 lead in indies.  Also, they're voting on which states to poll next week.  Washington state is winning with ohio close behind.

    http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/...

  •  NY-26: Davis pulls out of the (only) debate (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, MichaelNY, Goobergunch

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

    by andyroo312 on Wed May 11, 2011 at 12:47:19 PM PDT

  •  PPP's AZ-SEN GOP primary numbers: BAHAHAHAHAH (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Goobergunch, SaoMagnifico, MichaelNY

    AZ GOP has gone full retard

    35% of Republicans in the state say Palin would be their first choice as a Senate candidate for next year to 33% for Jeff Flake.

    RUN SARAH, RUN!!!

    Swingnut since 2009

    by Daman09 on Wed May 11, 2011 at 01:52:12 PM PDT

  •  Newt just announced. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, drhoosierdem, MichaelNY

    No surprise tho.

  •  New poll of KY-Gov. R primary (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    drhoosierdem

    David Williams: 47%
    Phil Moffett: 21%
    Bobbie Holsclaw: 12%
    Undecided: 21%

    Further details on WHAS11's site.

    Back in April, Williams was at 49% and Moffett was at 14%. Looks like "Tea Party choice" Moffett is starting to make up ground, but he's got less than a month to pull off the upset against Williams.

    Independent Socialist and Vice-Chair of DKE Cranky Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

    by Bob R Bobson on Wed May 11, 2011 at 02:19:26 PM PDT

    •  Actually (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      drhoosierdem

      Moffett has six days. I don't see it happening.

      Independent Socialist and Vice-Chair of DKE Cranky Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

      by Bob R Bobson on Wed May 11, 2011 at 02:21:23 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  There have been late insurgent victories (0+ / 0-)

        O'Donnell Vs. Castle and Sestak Vs. Spector come to mind, not sure if it has been less than a week late and down 26 points, but it COULD happen.  Not like it matters though.

        Swingnut since 2009, 20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

        by Daman09 on Wed May 11, 2011 at 02:37:57 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I think (0+ / 0-)

          At the end of the day, Steve Beshear might actually prefer running against David Williams over Moffett, even if Moffett is supposedly more conservative. He'd probably be happy with either, though.

          FWIW, I saw a brief interview on the news tonight where Holsclaw referred to some of Moffett's Tea Party supporters as "extreme", so I guess she's angling to be the moderate choice.

          Independent Socialist and Vice-Chair of DKE Cranky Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

          by Bob R Bobson on Wed May 11, 2011 at 02:59:45 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  It really snuck up on us didn't it? (0+ / 0-)

        Time flys when your having fun. I hope WHAS polled the GE as well. Last time they released them both at once so I doubt it.

        Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9. Was hoosierdem on SSP, but that username was already taken here :(

        by drhoosierdem on Wed May 11, 2011 at 04:19:56 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  KY-Sen: Rand Paul (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, drhoosierdem, MichaelNY

    Fucker just compared believing the statement "health care is a right" to slavery.

    http://thinkprogress.org/...

    This man is a sociopath. What the hell was Kentucky thinking?

    "Every daring attempt to make a great change in existing conditions, every lofty vision of new possibilities for the human race, has been labeled Utopian."

    by xcave on Wed May 11, 2011 at 02:41:05 PM PDT

  •  MO-1 Carnahan vs Clay (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    HRHSal131, jncca, MichaelNY

    I think running a primary vs Clay is really Carnahan best shot at staying in office.

    He's have a much better shot at beating Clay in a primary than winning an uphill batte in the GOP heavy R+6 MO-2.

    Running a primary vs Clay might really be Carnahan's best option.

    Help raise money for disaster relief efforts by searching the web & give the profits from your web searches to charity instead of Google! Click here for Search+Win with Music for Relief

    by izengabe on Wed May 11, 2011 at 02:45:04 PM PDT

    •  I don't think he would be that successful. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      HRHSal131, MichaelNY

      Carnahan isn't going to get passed the AA establishment. He will either have to run in his district or for a statewide office. An AA would have a much better shot at taking him out.

      19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

      by ndrwmls10 on Wed May 11, 2011 at 02:50:26 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  It would be a battle (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Carnahan has all the South City AAs that have voted for him.  LAcy Clay is going to be challenged in a primary maybe not by Carnahan but other white and AA Dems.
        Lewis Reed, President of the Board of Alderman of STL City is AA and a good friend of Carnahan. Plus Charlie Dooley who ran against Lacy in the 2000 primary and lost -- Dooley is ST Louis County Executive and AA is a Carnahan ally as well.  It will be a bloody battle.

    •  DCCC is publicly pushing MO-02 for Carnahan to run (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      in.
      Also, Russ would lose his DCCC "Frontline" membership and funding if he ran against a Dem member (Clay).
      He'd likely keep Frontline if he went for MO-02.

  •  Reuters: Obama at 49, up 12-13 on Huck, Mitt (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, MichaelNY

    General approval is only so-so, but the head-to-heads look awesome.

    Obama leads Huckabee by 51 percent to 39 percent, and Romney by 51 percent to 38 percent.

    The president's approval rating is at 49 percent, a 3-point increase over last month, amounting to only a modest bounce after the May 2 bin Laden operation. Other surveys have given him a slightly larger post-bin Laden boost.

    http://www.reuters.com/...

  •  Not so good news out of Indiana. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, MichaelNY
    The Indiana Recount Commission says it will appeal a judge's ruling ordering it to reconsider whether Republican Secretary of State Charlie White was a valid candidate for the office to which he was elected.

    The commission did not lay out its case in the notice of appeal it filed in Marion Circuit Court, and officials at the commission and attorney general's office, which represents it in court, declined to discuss the substance of the appeal until it is filed. There is currently no timetable for the filing, said Bryan Corbin, a spokesman for the attorney general's office.


    http://www.greenfieldreporter.com/...

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9. Was hoosierdem on SSP, but that username was already taken here :(

    by drhoosierdem on Wed May 11, 2011 at 05:37:18 PM PDT

  •  There's "in the weeds" and then there's REALLY in (5+ / 0-)

    the weeds.
    School board candidate loses election because she didn't vote for herself

    You know, the "in the weeds" expression ought to be in the SSP glossary (if it's not there already).

  •  OR Redistricting Maps out. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin

    Each party has a proposed map.
    http://blog.oregonlive.com/...

    OR Dem map shores up Wu and Schrader.
    OR GOP map hurts Wu and Schrader.

    The OR Dem legislative map is makes competitive districts more D-leaning.

    Dems have the State Senate, but the State House is perfectly tied.

    If legislators can't agree on a congressional redistricting plan, the issue will go to the courts.  If they can't pass a legislative redistricting plan, the chore will be handled by Secretary of State Kate Brown, a Democrat.

    Because the House is evenly divided between the two parties, several political observers have said it would not be a surprise if the Legislature was unable to complete redistricting plans.

    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo! So little time, so much to know!

    by KingofSpades on Wed May 11, 2011 at 09:02:11 PM PDT

  •  Texas State Senate proposal out (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    http://gis1.tlc.state.tx.us/

    Plan S107

    Travis County is hideously divided four ways.  Connects east Austin all the way to Laredo.  Can't say much about the rest but it looks like a pretty effective GOP gerrymander.

    article:

    http://www.statesman.com/...

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