I've just developed my own little conspiracy theory, which I think makes a lot of sense.
It all began when Saddam invaded Kuwait. Iraq was a strong military threat in the region -- a powerful, oil-rich country. Saudi Arabia were terrified that they would be next. Saddam's neighbours were so afraid that many of them joined what became a military coalition that invaded Iraq -- even sending troops to participate in the invasion.
Bush Sr., to his credit, accumulated international support to oust Saddam. Saudi Arabia was the base for the ground invasion of Iraq. The public focused on that ground invasion, which was over in a few weeks. But in the meantime -- watch the other hand! -- the U.S. airforce devastated Iraq's infrastructure, targeting bridges, power stations, pipelines, communication centers. Quite apart from its military defeat, Iraq was left in shambles. But then, with Saddam ousted from Kuwait and in full retreat, Bush Sr. paused.
Republican hawks were infuriated -- press on to Baghdad!
Bush I, with strong support from his secretary of defense, Dick Cheney, maintained -- to Bush's credit again! -- that the U.N. mandate was to push Saddam out of Kuwait; having accomplished that goal, he would have lost all of his Arab support and most of the rest of his international support if he had pressed an invasion.
Many prominent and influential Republicans believed that this was a huge mistake; that Bush should have pushed on into a prostrate Baghdad and taken over the country, establishing Iraq as a U.S. puppet state for control of the Middle East and its oil.
A powerful group of like-minded Republicans combined to form PNAC, Project for a New American Century. This group was dedicated to the belief that after the fall of the Soviet Union, the United States should rightfully establish itself as the dominant military force in the world for the foreseeable future -- decades, if not centuries. No competing military threat was to be tolerated. The key to the success of this movement would be control of the Middle East and its oil wells, and one country there was particularly weak and vulnerable -- Iraq.
One problem: After Bush I's defeat in 1992, there was no way these plans could come to fruition under a Bill Clinton presidency.
Then came the 2000 election. Without coherent Republican opposition, without a credible Republican opponent, the election was Al Gore's to lose -- and he lost it (despite winning the popular vote). The rest of the world ridiculed the U.S. electoral system as the farce of hanging and dimpled chads played out. Eventually, in Governor Jeb Bush's Florida, George H.W. Bush's Supreme Court intervened -- 5 to 4, on Republican/Democratic partisan lines -- in favour of George W.
The PNAC group were now ascendant -- led by Dick Cheney, who had been delegated to choose a vice president, and who chose himself. W. had no experience or knowledge of foreign affairs; his mind was a clean slate on which his advisors could write what they would. Thus, W., unburdened by any pre-formed opinions, could be molded and controlled by his neocon advisors.
The punditocracy decided that with a hairline victory, Bush -- who ran his campaign as a uniter, not a divider -- would have to govern in a moderate fashion and reach out for Democratic support. Bush surprised everyone by behaving aggressively, as though he had a strong mandate.
Despite dire predictions and Democratic fears, W.'s first months in power were uneventful. He offended NATO, the UN, and the EU, he repudiated the Kyoto climate-change convention and the International Criminal Court, and he appointed Republican hacks and incompetent cronies to influential positions -- heckuva job, Brownie! Other than that, he did no specific harm.
Then came 9/11.
After "My Pet Goat" and shuttling between undisclosed locations, and after giving timid and near-tearful responses to the crisis, he finally had his moment. Speaking atop a pile of World Trade Center rubble, when onlookers shouted that they couldn't hear him, he threw his arm around a firefighter and loudly declared: "I can hear you! I can hear you! The rest of the world hears you! And the people -- and the people who knocked these buildings down will hear all of us soon!"
That's it; that's all it took for this empty shell to become a forceful leader in the eyes of an American public yearning for leadership. His popularity shot to 92%.
The world rallied behind the U.S.: "Nous Sommes Touts Americains", read the headline of the (cheese-eating surrender monkey) Paris paper, Le Monde.
What would this crazy U.S. cowboy do? Where would he lash out?
To my great relief at the time, he didn't immediately do anything rash. It was soon proven that the attacks were carried out by Al Qaida, a group I had never heard of but that was well known by U.S intelligence (Dick Clarke had been loudly warning of the threat they posed).
Up to this point, I think the evidence is indisputed, factual, and uncontroversial (though I admit to have given things my unapolegetic liberal slant). Here's where narratives diverge.
STORY ONE (As told by the Bush administration):
After 9/11, the American people demanded that the perpetrators be brought to justice. The U.S. government identified Al Qaida and bin Laden as the culprits. They were in Afghanistan. The U.S. demanded that the theocratic Muslim regime in Afghanistan, the Taliban, turn over bin Laden and company; their demand was refused. Consequently, the U.S. invaded Afghanistan in a quest to capture or kill bin Laden and eradicate Al Qaida.
Unfortunately, bin Laden et al. escaped.
At this point, the Bush administration story gets a bit vague; Al Qaida made their escape from Tora Bora, but the tens of thousands of U.S. troops already in the pipeline -- though never deployed in the field -- continued to accumulate in Afghanistan.
Without previous mention of Iraq, administration opinion now seems to have suddenly shifted: The real enemy has been Iraq all along. Lest the next warning come in the shape of a mushroom cloud, the invasion of Iraq is imperative.
STORY TWO (As reflected by actual events):
After 9/11, the American people demanded that the perpetrators be brought to justice. The U.S. government identified Al Qaida and bin Laden as the culprits. They were in Afghanistan. The U.S. demanded that the theocratic Muslim regime in Afghanistan, the Taliban, turn over bin Laden and company; their demand was refused. Consequently, the U.S. invaded Afghanistan in a quest to capture or kill bin Laden and eradicate Al Qaida.
Unfortunately, bin Laden et al. were on the verge of capture. Someone in the White House pointed out: "Hey, if we kill or capture bin Laden, then what? What justification is there for keeping our troops in Afghanistan? We'll have to bring them home."
That would be unacceptable, since the real objective was not justice for 9/11 at all, but hegemony in the Middle East. So, after letting the American public take their summer holiday -- according to Andrew Card, you don't roll out a new product in August -- the White House Study Group develops its "mushroom cloud" media offensive, to be deployed in September.
The rest, as they say, is history.
The troop buildup in Afghanistan was proceeding apace in the early months of 2002, at the same time the administration delegated responsibility for finishing things off to the Afghan tribesmen of the Northern Alliance, who allowed their Muslim brethren to escape the clutches of the infidel.
I knew that in October 2001, bin Laden and Al Qaida were the target. I knew that a massive military deployment was underway, although few of those resources were actually deployed where they were needed. I knew that the media obsession with bin Laden peaked in January/February 2002, at the same time media mention of Saddam started to increase; I knew that by summer 2002, the mention of "bin Laden" had faded to a murmur while the mention of "Saddam" had increased to a dull roar.
To the engineers of the program, bin Laden, a tremendously convenient excuse, was irrelevant to the main objective: Invade Iraq, overthrow Saddam, establish a puppet regime and U.S. power center in the Middle East.