As I usually clarify before these diaries, I am not a Montana native and have only lived here for a little over a year. That said, I find the politics interesting and love talking about them. Consider this a conversation starter of a diary for Montanans to discuss the future of the Democratic party in the state.
I was not surprised when Brian Schweitzer said he wouldn't run for anything in 2012. Schweitzer is term limited, serving two terms as governor. Those who follow Montana politics (or caught his interviews when in DC in February) have heard him talk about his success. Montana's budget is in the black, the state had weathered the economic storm for the most part. No state is without its issues, but Schweitzer trumpeted his administration's success (to the point where he pointed out that Republicans swept their way into Legislative power not by complaining about him, but by playing on national fears). It may not be just your typical politician talking in sunshine and rose petals. Montanans like him.
That said, the only office he could truly seek in 2012 was the U.S. House. He may be able to beat Steve Daines (who holds a huge fundraising advantage over Franke Wilmer who has been slightly busy serving in the Legislature), but it has been speculated that going from the top dog in the state to low on the totem poll in the U.S. House might not appeal to Schweitzer. As for the Senate race, Jon Tester is fairly popular (52%) as well, and I would not be surprised in the least if the DNC told Schweitzer they didn't want a primary race between the two. So, at least for now, Schweitzer and his trusty dog Jag head back to ranching.
But, in the story linked above, Schweiter says 2012. He's not running in 2012. He doesn't say "I'm not running for any higher office ever again" (in fact in the Politico article linked he doesn't rule out a Presidential run in 2016, just, as Schweitzer is very capable of doing, dancing around the question). This means 2014 is in play. A seat in the U.S. Senate could be up for grabs. Max Baucus' seat will be up. Baucus, who will be 72 in 2014, has not said if he's running again. He has a 38% approval rating, hurt by his role in the health care overhaul. A lot can change in four years, obviously, but if Baucus decides to bow out, Schweitzer would be on the short list of Democrats to help keep that seat blue (those of you not familiar with Montana might be interested to know that its been that way for nearly a century).
So, what say you, Montana Kossacks? Is Schweitzer headed off into the sunset or will he be back in 2014? Who else could pop into the House and Senate races? Could Carol Williams or David Wanzenreid, two state senators make runs at these offices? Who else in the state could pop up?