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Senate:

CT-Sen, CT-04: Chris Shays — I swear I thought we were done with that guy. In fact, after he lost to Jim Himes in 2008, he left Connecticut entirely for the Maryland enclave of St. Michaels (perhaps to be closer to Dick Cheney?). Shays did briefly flirt with the idea of running for governor last year but ultimately thought better of it. So it's weird to see him coyly suggesting he might attempt to win his old seat back — or try his hand at a Senate bid. I don't think either move is a high-percentage play for him, not with Obama on the ballot.

Gubernatorial:

MS-Gov: Businessman Dave Dennis, challenging Lt. Gov. Phil Bryant in the GOP primary, has a new ad out where he climbs up a kinda rickety-looking ladder. I suppose he could have used a staircase or an escalator, but I guess this makes him look more DIY. (Or as Mitch Hedberg would say: Mississippi temporarily stairs. Sorry for the convenience.) The primary is August 2.

OR-Gov: A new poll from Riley Research gives Gov. John Kitzhaber decent job approval marks so far in his first time, at 40-27. The proportion of undecideds seems unusually high, though.

UT-Gov: We've previously mentioned that tebaggish types have been hungering for a challenge to GOP Gov. Gary Herbert — largely on account of his immigration apostasy — but no candidates have emerged. A few new names are thinking about it, though. One is former state Rep. Gary Frank, who had to give up his seat in the legislature this year when it turned out he didn't live in the district. D'oh! (No word yet on what a Frank-Herbert challenge would mean for the spice trade on Arrakis, though.) Oil company CEO William Skokos also says he's considering the race, as is Morgan Philpot, who almost unseated Rep. Jim Matheson in 2010. State legislators John Valentine and Stephen Sandstrom (whose names have come up before) say they are still interested, with Valentine also saying he could run for Congress.

House:

CT-05: State House Speaker Chris Donovan all but launched a campaign for the Democratic nod to replace Rep. Chris Murphy, handing out stickers at a Jefferson-Jackson dinner touting his candidacy. He says he'll wait to formally announce until the end of the state legislative session (a practice that most legislators, from Alabama to Zimbabwe, seem to prefer). The field is already quite crowded, but Donovan's pedigree gives him some built-in advantages.

MN-06: I guess someone out there does love us: An unnamed "senior adviser" to Michele Bachmann says that the Queen Teabagger is "very likely" to run for president, with Donald Trump and Mike Huckabee out of the way.

WA-01: State Rep. Marko Liias says he's putting together an exploratory committee but will only run if fellow Dem Jay Inslee (a likely gubernatorial candidate) does not seek re-election. DKE editor (and Washington resident) David Jarman tells me he likes Liias for the job.

Other Races:

Springfield, PA: This is awesome! Commenter drobertson points out that DKE community member Cole Stevens (who formerly went by "warning_crazy" at SSP) won the Democratic primary for Springfield, PA Ward Commissioner from the 1st Ward last night. Though the race was uncontested, I think drobertson is right and that this makes Cole the first SSP/DKE alum to score a major-party nomination for elected office. Congrats, Cole!

Grab Bag:

Dark Money: Republican attorney James Bopp is creating a new Super PAC called, simply, "the Republican Super PAC." The idea is simple, and looks like it pretty much blow an orka-sized hole through much of this country's remaining campaign finance regulations. Bopp says he'll encourage entities who want to donate to candidate X but find themselves limited by law to give whatever extra money they want to his new PAC. (An example would be a corporation, which can't give directly to candidates, but can give unlimited sums to a Super PAC.) Bopp then promises that he'll spend the cash on the races it's earmarked for. The one remaining problem here is that even Super PACs can only engage in independent expenditures. If, as Politico says, Bopp plans to "coordinate with elected officials to raise cash," it's going to be hard to claim with a straight face that spending decisions are being made independently.

NRCC: Now it's the NRCC's turn to do another round of robocalls, also on Medicare. Will the Karl Rove tactic of attacking your opponent where you yourself are weakest actually work? I'm not sure. Dems were first out the gate with hard-hitting, unrelenting attacks regarding Medicare and the Ryan budget, which I think makes a big difference.

Redistricting Roundup:

Illinois: A few murky details have emerged about the one of our best hopes, the Prairie Chicago state! The Dems, as expected, seem to be going after North Shore Rep. Bob Dold! and certifiable nutter Joe Walsh in Chicagoland, rogue pizzeria owner Bobby Schilling in the 17th, and possible some contraction of the 11th back to being mostly Chicagoland. Details differ on how exactly this will be accomplished, but Greg Hinz's write-up doesn't seem to make a lot of sense: sinking Hinsdale into Quigley's North Side Chicago district would require a second wrap-around of the West Side (and Danny Davis' IL-07), already on top of the earmuffs of IL-04.

What's more, a 9D-8R-1 "swing" map (if Hinz is to be believed) would be certifiable political malpractice — notice how the divide here at DKE is between 13-5 and 14-4! With Speaker Mike Madigan at the helm (and a newly sworn-in Mayor Emanuel likely involved in the process), it's doubtful that Dan Lipinski will be threatened much, and with the June 30th deadline looming in the distance, it's even more doubtful that Madigan, Senate President John Cullerton, or Rahmbo will let the courts judge this one. I mean, hey, isn't this the reason we all voted for Pat-freakin-Quinn, anyway? (Jeffmd)

Mississippi: The three-judge panel hearing the MS state lege redistricting case has issued a ruling, offering lawmakers two choices: run this fall under the existing district lines, or call a special session and implement new maps. The latter seems impossible, so it looks like we'll see the former. That has to be considered a good outcome for the GOP, since they stand a pretty decent chance of winning the state House in November in the absence of a Democratic gerrymander. Plaintiffs could still appeal the case directly to the SCOTUS (which would be obligated to rule on it), but I can't imagine getting a friendly hearing before the Roberts court. One additional detail is that if elections do take place this year with the old maps, the three-judge panel said they'd entertain requests for special elections again next year if new maps are drawn then (as they seemingly must be).

Nevada: This strikes me as unexpected. Just days after Gov. Brian Sandoval vetoed maps passed by the Dem-controlled state legislature, Democrats put out a new set of maps, which you can see at the link. It's not really clear what they're hoping to do here, though. Based on a series of tweets from Jon Ralston (1, 2, 3, 4), it looks like the new congressional map is more of a 2-1-1 rather than a 3-1. However, it appears to seriously screw 1st CD GOP Rep. Joe Heck, so I can't imagine Gov. Brian Sandoval signing this. Could it be some sort of positioning maneuver for an expected courtroom battle? Perhaps. Gonna have to wait and see here, though.



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Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Wed May 18, 2011 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Good ol' Nevadan kabuki cartography (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    tietack, Cole Stevens

    Anyone know anything about Liiiiiiiiiiiias in WA-01? I swear, these repeating-vowel names are just fantastic - and now that we don't have Scott Bruuuuuuuuuuuun to kick around anymore a little to WA-01's south, I'm excited about this guy. Plus, his first name is Marko!

    Really hoping the Illinois Democrats nut up and get a touch more aggressive with the Republicans. Lord knows Rep. McHenry in North Carolina has no intention of being merciful to Team Blue in the Tarheel State.

    Nice to see good approvals for Gov. Kitzhaber in Oregon. I think I've mentioned this here before, but I've been getting a lot of emails from the Democratic Party of Oregon since Kitz took office prominently mentioning the party's drive to overturn the constitutional ban on same-sex marriage and Legalize It! in 2012. Kitzhaber is one of the firmest advocates for same-sex marriage in gubernatorial office, and I wouldn't be surprised if he made it clear to state party officials that he wants to make this a priority during his third(!) term.

    And once again, congrats to Cole Stevens - 18 years old and a serious nominee for ward commish! Awesome!

    Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

    by SaoMagnifico on Wed May 18, 2011 at 06:07:36 AM PDT

    •  Gosh, Liiias is almost a kid (29) (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SaoMagnifico

      and is openly gay, ref http://en.wikipedia.org/...

      IIRC, deep trivia, I think his district is next door to Maria Cantwell's state house district. It's also one of the Boeing Everett districts (the flight line).

      "I hope; therefore, I can live."
      For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

      by tietack on Wed May 18, 2011 at 07:15:12 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Finnish American, thought so (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        borodino21

        Any Finns presently in Congress? They may be the only ethnic group that forms a plurality in at least one U.S. county that doesn't have any representation on Capitol Hill - unless anyone can think of others?

        That map is here, if you're curious.

        Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

        by SaoMagnifico on Wed May 18, 2011 at 07:20:27 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  St sen Ed Murray (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        AUBoy2007

        is considered to be the natural successor Jim McDermott in WA-07. If that were to happen, and Marko wins the 1st, then Washington would have the gayest congressional delegation ever!

        26yo. Gay Male. Democrat. Currently in WA-07, born and raised in FL-16 (Should I be offended that Mark Foley never hit on me?) .

        by VanityFlair on Wed May 18, 2011 at 07:36:54 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  WA-07 scuttlebutt... (0+ / 0-)

          Recent fuel for the rumor mill is that Ed Murray is more interested in being the next mayor of Seattle than a back-bencher in the House.  If the mayoralty doesn't work out, he'd probably be happier as a top-drawer state senator than as just-another-Congressman.

          Besides, McDermott has given no indication that he's thinking of retiring in the foreseeable future.  Murray's already age 56, and he's beginning to think he's getting long in the tooth to be a House newbie.

          Finally, there remains the possibility that the upcoming redistricting maps could divide Seattle between two districts.  Not only would that result in two rock-solid Democratic districts (under the current map, it's at least conceivable that every CD except WA-07 could go Republican), it would also open up real possibilities for an aspiring progressive in whichever part of the city wasn't represented by McDermott.

          grok the "edku" -- edscan's "revelation", 21 January 2009

          by N in Seattle on Wed May 18, 2011 at 10:25:45 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  I'm still hoping for a surprise (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          BeloitDem

          Crisitunity candidacy. Yes, I know it's a long shot, and I want more gay congresscritters as much as the next Friend of Dorothy. But I think Swingnuts are dangerously underrepresented in Congress.

          21, male, RI-01 (voting)/IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

          by sapelcovits on Wed May 18, 2011 at 10:28:36 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Bachmann "very likely to run"... (9+ / 0-)

    very likely to produce unintended humor; very likely to expose teh crazy; very likely to fail (itself a kind of unintended humor.)

    BTW, Michele, any thoughts on debating that nice young woman from Cherry Hill? Heh...

    Real stupidity beats artificial intelligence every time. (Terry Pratchett)

    by angry marmot on Wed May 18, 2011 at 06:11:58 AM PDT

    •  If she somehow managed to get the nomination, (7+ / 0-)

      it might be the single best thing to happen to the Democratic party in decades. She wouldn't get within 15 points of Obama nationwide. Indeed, once she received the nomination, the Obama campaign would likely set up shop in every single state, from Alaska to Arizona and Wisconsin to Wyoming, just to drag more Democrats into office. They'd coordinate with the DSCC and DCCC in whatever ways they can to try to flip the senate seats in Mississippi and Tennessee and force challenges on countless numbers of Representatives that thought they were safe. It'd be a disaster for the Republicans in every sense of the word.

      That said, I don't think it's going to happen, unfortunately.

      •  Exactly ! And I bet Palin would campaign (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        AUBoy2007, LordMike

        with her and be close by her side every step.  That would be a double heaping of the Crazy.

        SNL would be jumping for joy as would all the comedians. So much material there for Comedy Central's Colbert and Stewart too.  LOL

        •  Oh, what a dream that would be (0+ / 0-)

          Palin had only two flimsy rationales as to why she was in any way qualified for the presidency: she was a  mayor/governor, and therefore had executive experience, and was from Alaska, which meant she somehow had F.P. experience with Russia or something. Bachmann is basically Palin, only she's a legislator from Minneosta.

        •  Best reason to be proud of my hometown area (0+ / 0-)

          Giving Michele Bachmann enough votes in 2008 so that she could run for President in 2012.  Thanks Wright County tea-party uber Catholics!  You made high school tough, but what a gift.

      •  Yup, Dem House takeover & Senate gains certain (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Odysseus, Bharat

        No way there wouldn't be massive coattails with someone like Bachmann headlining the GOP next year.  ALL 2010 GOP gains would be completely reversed.  ALL of them.

        43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Wed May 18, 2011 at 08:08:18 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  my favorite part of a Bachmann candidacy (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          DCCyclone

          The men of the race would have to attack Bachmann. Inevitably one of them would say something sexist. Palin would come in to her defense. It'd be a gift from God.

        •  Maybe 300 House seats? (0+ / 0-)

          I even suspect that, depending on how congressional districts are drawn in some states, the Democrats could get close to 300 seats in the House if someone like Bachmann were to be the presidential nominee and the Ryan plan acted as even more of an anchor on Republicans. Obama would probably break 70 percent in a lot of the blue states, like New York and California, but he could get close or break 60 percent in the purple states, like Pennsylvania and Florida.  

          •  Nah, if Bachmann is as toxic as we think (0+ / 0-)

            Most R congressmen in anything less than an R+10 would run away from her at light speed, and what Newt said yesterday about Ryan would suddenly become fashionable.

            "I hope; therefore, I can live."
            For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

            by tietack on Wed May 18, 2011 at 08:15:40 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  That's probably true, but the effect (0+ / 0-)

              on turnout would be horrendous throughout the country. Combined with the fact that a lot of these guys are going to have to answer for voting to end Medicare, that's going to make it very, very hard for them to win. Besides, were the Democrats to reach 300 seats, which I believe would be the highest number ever, you'd still have 135 districts represented by Republicans. That's more than enough to include the Boehners and Pauls and McCarthys of the House, but they'd have to fight harder than usual. When I'm talking of the type of district that will flip, I'm thinking of Mike Pence's old one, where Obama received 46 percent of the vote.

              Plus, we'd not only keep the Senate, but add enough seats so that we likely hold on to it until 2016. Brown and Heller would go down, giving us at least 53, even if we lost in Nebraska and North Dakota. But then we'd probably win at least two to four more, and we could easily hang on in North Dakota. We could in fact get to 60 in the Senate, or at least get very close. And if we end up losing in Arkansas, Alaska, and Louisiana in 2014 and make no gains, we'd probably get three back in Pennsylvania, Illinois, and Wisconsin in 2016.

    •  Unless Santorum and Cain exit, she ain't winning (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      There's not enough of the fringe religious right vote for three candidates to split it and expect to deliver a winner. Wouldn't surprise me if she tanks at the Ames Straw Poll and opts to drop out pre-Iowa.

      For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

      by andyroo312 on Wed May 18, 2011 at 09:25:04 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  In dunno (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        itskevin

        I think there is the opportunity for a long shot to catch fire. Certainly the Trump boomlet suggests it is a possibilty.

      •  bachmann will have $10M at least (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCCyclone, drobertson

        Cain and Santorum won't. If she gets in, she'd be a fool to drop out before SC

        •  Santorum in particular doesn't even count (0+ / 0-)

          Cain at least is energizing a segment of wingnut crazies, so he has potential to take some of Bachmann's votes.

          But Santorum is a complete non-factor.  His support is absolutely zero.  In fact there's a plausible chance in the Iowa caucuses, which procedurally are precinct caucuses that choose delegates for the county conventions. that Santorum will win literally zero delegates.  Zero.

          43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Wed May 18, 2011 at 10:26:44 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  did u see Santorum at the faith and family forum? (0+ / 0-)

            He seemed pretty good at energizing social conservatives. That and his charisma might get him high single digits/low double digits in Iowa. I could definitely see him as a spoiler.

            I see Cain as kind of the Ron Paul of '12. Gets a lot of attention but ultimately can't translate that into votes anywhere. Correct me if I'm wrong, that's just my gut instinct. Especially if it comes out that he ran the FED in Kansas, just seems like he won't be able to close anywhere

          •  Most conservatives I know who watched the debate.. (0+ / 0-)

            ...actually thought Santorum emerged the victor. I happened to agree with that sentiment; he was the most on-message and articulate in delivering the Tea Party talking points. He also comes off as more well-versed and, yes, sane than Bachmann probably will. Contrary to Frank Luntz's group, I happen to know no one who thought Cain was stellar in that thing.

            For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

            by andyroo312 on Wed May 18, 2011 at 12:35:35 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  That's not what polls & focus groups said (0+ / 0-)

              Santorum didn't register with anyone in SC during or after that debate.  Luntz's focus group didn't notice him, they liked Cain, and to a lesser extent some others.  All the post-debate buzz dissed Santorum and talked up Cain and, to a lesser extent, Pawlenty (for being the only serious candidate up there and no real flubs) and one or two others.

              All the events in Iowa where these wannabes speak, Santorum gets shrugs.  So does Pawlenty, but people realize he's a serious candidate, not a joker.  There's no buzz in my home state about Rick, whatever emotional buzz there is goes to Cain and Bachmann.

              43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Wed May 18, 2011 at 01:19:05 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Do you think Santorum's Catholicism . . . (0+ / 0-)

                . . . will prove to be an obstacle with the Evangelical voters in Iowa? (I'm not asking rhetorically; I genuinely want to know).

                28, chick, solid progressive, NY-14 currently, FL-22 native, went to school in IL-01.

                by The Caped Composer on Wed May 18, 2011 at 02:00:49 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  I don't think so (0+ / 0-)

                  I'd say that (conservative) Evangelicals are pretty used to working with (conservative) Catholics in politics these days. Here in the Detroit area, a lot of evangelicals are former Catholics and typically have a pretty negative view of the Catholic Church, but I don't think that tripped many of them up for voting for Engler.

                  Romney's Mormonism, on the other hand...

                  30, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.

                  by borodino21 on Wed May 18, 2011 at 04:25:10 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                •  Nope, a complete non-issue (0+ / 0-)

                  Evangelicals completely embrace conservative Catholics nowadays, and also Jews for cynical theological reasons although that's not a real political alliance except with those small fractions of Jewish conservatives (and there are hardly any Jews in Iowa).

                  Santorum just doesn't get anyone's juices flowing.  Perhaps he'd look exciting compared to Pawlenty, but he's not compared to Pawlenty, he's compared to Cain and Bachmann.  Read the reports of what happens at conservative political events in Iowa and elsewhere where multiple candidates show up, and the consistent reaction to Santorum is "meh."  Nothing wrong with him as far as wingnuts are concerned, but nothing right with him either.

                  43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

                  by DCCyclone on Wed May 18, 2011 at 06:44:27 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

        •  She kind of is a fool to begin with. She's (0+ / 0-)

          the crazy, dumb version of Palin, which is saying alot.

          But I don't think she has a chance. In most of the PPP primary polls I keep seing, she's in like 5th or 6th place. If you add up her numbers and Palin's they still only get around 3rd place. There is just no support for her.

          Hillary Clinton's Liberal Ranking http://www.dailykos.com/story/2007/8/10/122232/619

          by tigercourse on Wed May 18, 2011 at 10:44:27 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Actually, I think she's got more brains than Palin (0+ / 0-)

            LLM in tax law from Wiliam and Mary is no slouch.

            Her best case scenario is a Huckabee-like jump in Iowa, and that would be a win in those caucuses.

            "I hope; therefore, I can live."
            For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

            by tietack on Wed May 18, 2011 at 10:59:40 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  agreed (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              The Caped Composer

              Bachmann is the smart version of Palin. She's got brains AND charm. AND she can fundraise. That's what makes her more dangerous.

              •  I don't think Palin is crazy. (0+ / 0-)

                I do think she is unintelligent and out for herself. This is why she is unpopular, because it shows. Bachmann is absolutely insane. She believes the bullshit she says. That's not going to get her anywhere in a general election.

                19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin for Senate!

                by ndrwmls10 on Wed May 18, 2011 at 12:08:02 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

              •  Ew, what? (0+ / 0-)

                Michele Bachmann makes Sarah Palin look like Margaret Thatcher.

                For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

                by andyroo312 on Wed May 18, 2011 at 12:36:13 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  thatcher went to 1 of the best all-girl schools in (0+ / 0-)

                  Britain. Sarah Palin can barely spell school. Like it or not, Bachmann's got game as an intellectual. So does Gingrich. Neither of them get much credit for it though since they're better known as raving lunatics. That's why the media is fascinated with Paul Ryan, he's smart and he doesn't act like a complete crazy person

                  •  Bachmann is good at putting her foot in her mouth (0+ / 0-)

                    But it takes her less then a week to clean-up the damage.  Granted, maybe that's because we've all come to expect this sort of nonsense from her, but she knows how to do a post-fuck up interview perfectly.  And unlike Palin, she's not afraid to do them.  

                    Which further shows she is way out of her element and I doubt will run.  Bachmann and Palin both aren't going to run, and you don't quit for no reason mid-term as Governor so you can run for President.  Palin doesn't understand politics beyond a local level, but I'm sure she at least understands that.  And Bristol now has her own reality show so yeah, they're money grubbers and tea partiers are hilarious for simply putting money into this woman's pocket.  Hell, I bet Bristol and whatshisface are still together and they had a falling out only for the publicity a la Speidi.

    •  Bachmann's confirmed for the Ames straw poll (0+ / 0-)

      That means she's running: http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

      Oh happy day

  •  Congressman Joe Walsh (0+ / 0-)

    I thought he's getting the Northwest Suburban Vote Sink...

    17, R, IL-10. Summer (Internship starting in June): DC-AL. RockRibbedR on RedRacingHorses.

    by IllinoyedR on Wed May 18, 2011 at 06:32:53 AM PDT

  •  Should also note... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Xenocrypt, drobertson

    That South Africa is holding a round of what pass for elections today. The campaign season (and the lead-up thereto) has been marked by some truly ugly allegations of bigotry with serious undertones of the apartheid era, as well as some blatant hypocrisy on both sides regarding public infrastructure and the class divide.

    The two main protagonists here are the African National Congress (ANC), which has held power since the end of apartheid in 1994, and the Democratic Alliance (DA), which controls parts of Western Cape province (including South Africa's second-largest [and most visited] city, Cape Town).

    The Guardian offers a decent writeup here. The main takeaway:

    Experts predict the ANC will remain dominant in most councils except Cape Town. However, turnout is likely to be down and pundit Allister Sparks believes "it is evident that the tectonic plates of our political structure are beginning to shift" with the DA making some inroads into black townships. If the party claims 20% of the overall vote, it will be a breakthrough that could rattle the ANC and even cost Zuma a second term.

    Could be interesting to watch. South Africa has basically been a one-party state since black suffrage, just as many of its neighbors have been one-party states since independence, and just as we saw with the very similar elections in tiny Singapore earlier this month, the ruling party is not at all happy about its monopoly on power being challenged in any way.

    Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

    by SaoMagnifico on Wed May 18, 2011 at 06:33:46 AM PDT

    •  Any comparison between South Africa... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, drobertson

      ...and those other one-party states is unfair to the ANC, which enjoys the same legitimacy boost from the freedom struggle that the Congress Party enjoyed in India for many decades.  South Africa's independent judiciary won't permit the abuse of libel laws to stifle opposition parties, which is the norm in Singapore.  

      It's better to curse the darkness than light a candle. --Whoever invented blogs, c.1996

      by Rich in PA on Wed May 18, 2011 at 06:43:38 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I don't think it's unfair (0+ / 0-)

        Yes, there's not as big of a free speech issue in South Africa as there is in Singapore - but the comparison to the likes of Botswana, Namibia, and arguably Mozambique is legitimate, I think. Those ruling parties have been kept in power by that same "legitimacy boost", but they're still corrupt and the opposition has struggled to gain traction because of the unsavory tactics the government has used to splinter and marginalize its critics.

        Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

        by SaoMagnifico on Wed May 18, 2011 at 06:50:34 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Mozambique was a dictatorship... (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          SaoMagnifico, Odysseus, Goobergunch

          ...and had a civil war that was awful before Sierra Leone and Liberia had awful civil wars.  Right now it's not so much a democracy as a country where both sides in the civil war have decided to bury the hatchet and exploit the populace together.  Botswana is a solid democracy but the ruling party enjoys the legitimacy of traditional chieftancy--the Khamas didn't ascend a political ladder, they were born into it.  Namibia is the most similar case in my opinion, and it's less of a democracy because its freedom struggle was always much more personalist and that guy is still running Namibia.  No democracy is perfect, and it's hard to say what vibrant democracy would look like in Mozambique with its very low literacy and civil-society indices, but right now I'd rank SA and Botswana, then Namibia, Mozambique, and Singapore.  Though what's interesting about Singapore is that there is very substantial freedom within the country to point out that it's not much of a democracy!  In that regard it's like Brazil during the dictatorship, where at least you were free to point out that electoral politics were a sham.

          It's better to curse the darkness than light a candle. --Whoever invented blogs, c.1996

          by Rich in PA on Wed May 18, 2011 at 06:59:31 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I completely agree, emphasizing Namibia over Moz (0+ / 0-)

            It's quite clear you're very well educated on politics in the region. Any personal connection to Southern Africa, perchance?

            Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

            by SaoMagnifico on Wed May 18, 2011 at 07:02:08 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  No, I just read a lot! (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              SaoMagnifico

              I'm attracted to the more marginalized countries, so I probably know less about SA than the others in the region.  I think Mozambique's the only one we've mentioned that was officially a one-party state, though I'm pretty sure that before the collapse of the Soviet Bloc SWAPO always assumed it would govern that way.  

              It's better to curse the darkness than light a candle. --Whoever invented blogs, c.1996

              by Rich in PA on Wed May 18, 2011 at 07:05:44 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  The communists and the ex-Portuguese colonies... (0+ / 0-)

                Always seemed to be rather fond of one another. Mozambique and Angola, of course, remain two of the only countries in the world that still have overt communist symbolism on their flags!

                Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

                by SaoMagnifico on Wed May 18, 2011 at 07:08:20 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  I didn't know that for Mozambique (0+ / 0-)

                  I saw it recently for Angola and I had to chuckle because the MPLA are now the most corrupt gutter-capitalists around.  

                  It's better to curse the darkness than light a candle. --Whoever invented blogs, c.1996

                  by Rich in PA on Wed May 18, 2011 at 07:25:31 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

          •  I did a January term in South Africa (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            SaoMagnifico

            The professor we had from SA told us the ANC are all horribly corrupt, Nelson Mandela was untouchable so instead his wife, Winnie "The Witch", was run out of the party for having too many people murdered.  They divorced, and now she's back towards the top of the ANC party hierarchy.

            And not to mention their current President was charged with rape in 2005, but the court agreed with him that it was consensual.

    •  " Like the Reverend Wright's fiery sermons... (0+ / 0-)

      ...or Gordon Brown's "bigot" gaffe, unexpected bumps in the road can change the course of election campaigns."

      One of these things is not like the other...one of the people hurt by these "bumps" is going to G8 meetings, and the other isn't.

      25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

      by Xenocrypt on Wed May 18, 2011 at 07:04:44 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Polls just closed in SA (0+ / 0-)

      Track results here: http://www.elections.org.za/...

  •  Plugging in (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Odysseus

    Australian politics here. Another Labor state government is set to be wiped off the face of the Earth as the Labor government in Queensland led by Anna Bligh trails the Liberal National Party (LNP) 60-40 in the two party preferred polling. The swing against the Labor in Queensland in this poll is about 10% which would wipe out 38 Labor MPs leaving Labor with only 13 MPs in state parliament.

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/...

    (If you check the page here you can see the vast majority of Labor seats in QLD are held by the slimiest of slimiest margins.)

    http://en.wikipedia.org/...

    President Barack Obama and Democrats: Moving America forward since 2008.

    by ehstronghold on Wed May 18, 2011 at 06:33:56 AM PDT

    •  Are these the two major parties in AU? (0+ / 0-)

      I need to read more about AU politics.

    •  Ugh (0+ / 0-)

      Australian Labour and the Liberals in Canada seem to be in the same boat these days.

      The epic meltdown by Labour is truly jaw-dropping. They desperately need to recalibrate and get some new blood in leadership.

      Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Wed May 18, 2011 at 06:37:57 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  My impression of Australian politics... (0+ / 0-)

        ....is that it's such a (con)federal system, compared to ours or even  Canada's, that the fate of a party at the national level is only loosely tied to the fate of the state parties and vice-versa.  So if Bligh is defeated my first guess is that it's because of disaffection with how she's run Queensland, rather than disaffection with Labour nationally, or how they dumped their PM, etc.

        Queensland, by the way, has the most fascinating history of near-dictatorship of any Old Commonwealth territory

        It's better to curse the darkness than light a candle. --Whoever invented blogs, c.1996

        by Rich in PA on Wed May 18, 2011 at 06:47:45 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I don't know (0+ / 0-)

          So soon after the blowout in New South Wales, which was so soon after Labour lost a bunch of seats (barely clinging to government) in the federal election, etc. Seems difficult to posit that there's no correlation there. You may be right, though.

          Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

          by SaoMagnifico on Wed May 18, 2011 at 06:51:53 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  In a sense it's a kind of metaphysical distinction (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            SaoMagnifico

            If times are hard, they're hard nationally and at the state level, so if someone says they're voting anti-Labour (or anti-incumbent) because times are hard, it's six of one and half-a-dozen of the other.  

            It's better to curse the darkness than light a candle. --Whoever invented blogs, c.1996

            by Rich in PA on Wed May 18, 2011 at 07:01:58 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  Many (0+ / 0-)

            of these state/territory Labor governments have been power for over a decade and are reaching their expiration date. Or are barely holding on thanks to the Greens. Labor is probably going to lose control of Tasmania and South Australia in 2014 and in the Northern Territory come 2012. ACT is iffy mainly because its Canberra.

            And if Labor doesn't pull itself in front again in the polling Federally, say hello to Tony Abbott as PM and say hello to a Liberal premier in every state and territory.

            President Barack Obama and Democrats: Moving America forward since 2008.

            by ehstronghold on Wed May 18, 2011 at 07:42:28 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I want to throw up (0+ / 0-)

              Abbott would be the farthest-right head of government in a democratic state of the Anglo-world (to borrow the esteemed James Belich's term for the United States, the United Kingdom, Ireland, and the former Dominions of Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and South Africa) since Margaret Thatcher. He makes Presidents Bush and Reagan, Prime Minister Harper, and John Howard look positively moderate by comparison.

              Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

              by SaoMagnifico on Wed May 18, 2011 at 07:49:12 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

  •  what, no recap of yesterday's elections? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Flaming Liberal for Jesus

    Or will that be its own post later? some exciting stuff happened yesterday, Cole among them obviously

  •  I have to say, (0+ / 0-)

    If the news is true, then I'm very surprised by the IL Dems. I thought they'd go all out, but, perhaps there is some compasion left? lol probably not, so that makes me wonder why they wouldn't go all out.  

    I always pictured NC/IL kind of neutralizing each other out in redistricting, but if this pans out, and the Reps don't go easy in NC, then perhaps it wont, seat wise that is.

  •  Cole Stevens now moves into the top tier... (15+ / 0-)

    ...of Democratic PA-Gov candidates for 2014.  

    It's better to curse the darkness than light a candle. --Whoever invented blogs, c.1996

    by Rich in PA on Wed May 18, 2011 at 06:40:39 AM PDT

  •  It looks like Huntsman (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen

    will be taking the Giuliani approche with FL.

    http://www.politico.com/...

  •  Lipinski - what the hell does he have photos of? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Odysseus, cosdem

    The guy is a Republican in far-right Democrat clothing.  Why does Madigan protect him?

    If we don't stop them here, then where? If not now, then when?

    by nightsweat on Wed May 18, 2011 at 06:47:27 AM PDT

    •  Not sure about that one, (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      dc1000, borodino21, jncca

      I just think he's an old school labor type Democrat, a type that doesn't really exist anymore... pre-progressives. Sort of like Mike Doyle and Stephen Lynch. I've talked with Congressman Lipinski and he's not even as conservative as Mark Kirk... but I can see how he would piss your side off.
      His family is very close with the Madigan family, and that's why they haven't targeted him. He's lucky in that regard.

      17, R, IL-10. Summer (Internship starting in June): DC-AL. RockRibbedR on RedRacingHorses.

      by IllinoyedR on Wed May 18, 2011 at 06:57:15 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Lipinski (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      borodino21

      According to the National Journal the 5 remaining members closest to him on the overall left-right scale in 2010 were Barrow, Matheson, Costello, Jim Cooper, and Giffords. Not the most liberal bunch, but none of them vote like Republicans.

      But that doesn't explain why Lipinski votes like them when none of their districts are better than D+3, and his is D+10. Culturally I'd guess it's something like Costello's district (and both of them are more conservative on social and foreign issues than on economic issues). If the Dem base there is something like 2/3 Costello types and 1/3 Gutierrez types that might explain how Lipinski can keep voting the way he does and not get a primary challenge.    

      SSP poster. 41, Dem-leaning Ind (-0.25, -3.90), CA-5

      by sacman701 on Wed May 18, 2011 at 08:45:09 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yeah (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCCyclone

        He would be fine in plenty of places but even if the Democrats in his district are more conservative than most I would think they could do better.

      •  For a check, let's go to DW-Nominate: (0+ / 0-)

        From the  111th House, eliminating people who left:

        187 111 20508 21 3 ILLINOI  100 LIPINSKI    -0.314  0.374  -148.00426  965  0.858  0.944
         191 111 29768 73 9 WASHING  100 SMITH       -0.307 -0.201  -154.33658  957  0.851  0.949
         192 111 20938 47 8 NORTH C  100 KISSELL     -0.305  0.416  -138.52066  975  0.868  0.957
         197 111 20960 1412 PENNSYL  100 CRITZ       -0.299  0.950   -41.85537  213  0.822  0.934
         198 111 20306 7118 CALIFOR  100 CARDOZA     -0.296  0.411  -125.03821  937  0.875  0.958
         199 111 29339 44 2 GEORGIA  100 BISHOP      -0.296  0.358   -98.31958  952  0.902  0.973
         202 111 20326 51 6 KENTUCK  100 CHANDLER    -0.286  0.479  -128.66885  942  0.872  0.953
         207 111 20501 7120 CALIFOR  100 COSTA       -0.272  0.495  -183.27084  953  0.825  0.930
         209 111 20907  1 4 CONNECT  100 HIMES       -0.265 -0.328  -200.43753  961  0.812  0.919
         210 111 20533 4928 TEXAS    100 CUELLAR     -0.264  0.749  -154.64658  974  0.853  0.947
         212 111 29721 31 3 IOWA     100 BOSWELL     -0.262  0.222  -106.13424  964  0.896  0.972
         216 111 20923 23 9 MICHIGA  100 PETERS      -0.253 -0.174  -216.30757  983  0.802  0.917
         219 111 20702 7111 CALIFOR  100 MCNERNEY    -0.243 -0.036  -159.13564  972  0.849  0.942
         224 111 29396 1417 PENNSYL  100 HOLDEN      -0.238  0.506  -160.54079  968  0.847  0.944
         237 111 15019 54 5 TENNESS  100 COOPER      -0.179 -0.116  -606.80023  973  0.536  0.823
         238 111 20140 67 2 UTAH     100 MATHESON    -0.179  0.477  -278.92120  977  0.752  0.899
         239 111 29746 47 7 NORTH C  100 MCINTYRE    -0.178  0.628  -264.58017  975  0.762  0.886
         243 111 20701 61 8 ARIZONA  100 GIFFORDS    -0.170 -0.150  -360.58102  974  0.691  0.842
         250 111 20523 53 2 OKLAHOM  100 BOREN       -0.151  0.936  -255.90649  949  0.764  0.881
         256 111 20737 4711 NORTH C  100 SHULER      -0.100  0.979  -366.86707  931  0.674  0.793

        Still, remember that DW-Nominate, while an interesting tool, does treat all roll calls equally, and to me there's obviously a big difference between someone who votes with their party on big-ticket items like Giffords and someone who doesn't like Matheson.  Still, it is interesting that they came out in this order (and, home district Rep. Himes, I ain't too thrilled that you're coming in where you are).

        (The last number, btw, is the error in terms of how many votes the DW-Nominate score "misses", so it's interesting that Giffords has the highest error here aside from Schuler and Cooper.)

        25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

        by Xenocrypt on Wed May 18, 2011 at 09:08:04 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  IL-03 is D+11 (0+ / 0-)

        and Lipinski has the machine protecting him.

        21, male, RI-01 (voting)/IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

        by sapelcovits on Wed May 18, 2011 at 10:34:25 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Good bye Kohl! He's upset folks need their $$ and (0+ / 0-)

    are borrowing it from their 401K's too much for emergencies!

    Bloomberg;

    Workers will be limited in tapping their 401(k) retirement plans for loans under legislation two senators plan to introduce today that’s designed to counter the erosion of retirement assets.

    “During these difficult economic times, we are increasingly seeing 401(k) funds being treated as rainy-day funds,” Senator Herb Kohl, a Wisconsin Democrat, said in a statement obtained by Bloomberg News. “A 401(k) savings account should not be used as a piggy bank for revolving loans.”

    so let's see here-----undermine private and public pensions to the point that almost zero workers joining the workforce will ever have one.....set up 401K's that are basically "scratch off" scams where savings ride the free market roller coaster---crash the economy by selling fake triple A rated securities all over the planet and then.....go into a fussy "Marion the librarian" act when the suckers need to withdraw money from the 401K's to eat and buy shoes.....can we privatize social security now daddy????

    •  Not appropriate for this site (9+ / 0-)

      This is DailyKos Elections, we focus exclusively on campaigns and elections.  Discussion of the merits of policies and legislation is appropriate for the main DailyKos site, but this is s niche sub-site where policy discussion is not permitted.

      Thanks for understanding.

      43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Wed May 18, 2011 at 08:14:37 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  ok i think i understand and i will try to follow (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        tietack

        the rules. not to be difficult but would it be ok to discuss the policy agenda of someone running for election because it would seem to me that would be part of their campaign...or am i missing the point?

        •  Hey, singe (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          sacman701, singe

          Welcome to Daily Kos Elections! You ask a very good question, and sometimes it's a gray area. In general, though, our rule of thumb is that we try to analyze how a particular policy position might affect an election, without delving into the merits of that position. A great current example is Scott Brown, who has said he'll vote for the Ryan budget (though now he's trying to hedge). If he follows through on his pledge, then it will definitely have an impact on the race - you can just imagine the negative attack ads!

          Anyhow, I'd encourage you to read our Mission Statement which explains what we're about (including this whole "politics, not policy" focus) in greater detail. And feel free to shoot me an email if you have any further questions. Hope to see you around!

          Political Director, Daily Kos

          by David Nir on Wed May 18, 2011 at 02:07:10 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Update on Jax mayoral race (5+ / 0-)

    Sounds as if Alvin Brown leads by 603 votes, with up to 2,000 outstanding (some of the provisionals will undoubtedly be disqualified, as they always are). Story here.

    The takeaway here is that Hogan has to hope these remaining 2,000 ballots break for him about 2:1 or better. You'll forgive me if I don't see that as being terribly likely.

    Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

    by SaoMagnifico on Wed May 18, 2011 at 07:05:05 AM PDT

    •  Looks to me like Brown wins (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      borodino21, DCCyclone, KingofSpades

      Having worked mayoral and council races in Jax for 24 years, I see this as a seriously significant race.

      If Alvin does hold on, and I interpret Hogan's comments as an affirmation that his pollsters and team have warned him it is likely, it will show that the tea party and GOP have a serious problem.  Many of the key GOP stalwarts defected from Hogan's camp and went with Brown, all because of a) who Hogan really is, and more importantly, b) his ties to the Tea Party.  Despite his union stance, he's got the TP on his side.

      Schellenburg's win in Dist 6 and Yarborough's in 1 notwithstanding, when an area as conservative as Jax elects an African American and a Democrat, it's time to realize that some major dissatisfaction with the Tea Party's positions is in the air.

      The two major parties' fears re: statewide implications were well founded.

      •  Latest update 5/18 3PM (0+ / 0-)

        after clearing first batch of provisionals, with a few hundred left to go, 768 cleared as legitimate.

        Hogan has a net increase of 18 votes

        Brown now leads by 585 votes.

        Hogan will have to pick up an inordnately large number of the remaining provisionals and outstanding absentees to pull it out.

        Of course, state statutes call for an automatic recount for less than .5 percent difference, and automatic hand recount for less than .25 percent difference.

        Could still be a long way from over.

        Hope Guido Scalia and Long Dong Thomas don't get hold of this one.

    •  Quote (6+ / 0-)

      "Yes, it's easy to overstate the significance of local races. But a Democrat practically tying a Republican for mayor of Jacksonville? That is a big, big deal that nobody would have remotely predicted a few months ago."

      This plus the New Hampshire win bode well going forward I think. Would be excellent to continue the tredn with NY-26 next week. Are we due another poll from there?

    •  Well it depends where those votes (0+ / 0-)

      are coming from. If they are from heavily white precincts, then Brown could still lose. Off the top of my head I think Hogan needs at least 1304 ballots to win, which is more than 60% of the vote. If the last precincts are heavily White and Republican, he could still do it.

      Working against him, though, is the fact that almost certainly not all of those 2000 votes are valid. Some of them are almost certainly likely to be thrown out. Although I could be 100% most people who vote provisionally tend to be minorities and lower income people, who tend to skew to Democratic. I can't recall an election where Republicans did well among provision ballots.

      So It looks like Brown has the edge, but where these provisional votes are coming from will make the difference. If they are from conservative white precincts he could still lose. But if they are from minority precincts he probably will win and increase his lead.

      What is the rejection rate for provisional ballots?

      •  Not sure what you mean by "last precincts" (0+ / 0-)

        The remaining ballots (late absentees and provisionals) should be scattered throughout the city.

        •  What I mean by "precincts" is parts (0+ / 0-)

          of the city they are coming from.

          •  Interesting review of numbers (0+ / 0-)

            The vote counts were interesting.
                                 Polls   Absentee Early Voting
            Alvin Brown   64,109    9,600      21,871
            Mike Hogan   59,373   18,964      16,640

            So, if Hogan pulls the same percentage as he did in the absentees above, he could win, but the provisionals are not always the same, as someone wrote earlier.  We'll see.

            I liked what Eric Smith said in his quote in today's Times Onion, "They won't steal this from us."

            •  Looks like Hogan did better with (0+ / 0-)

              absentee voters, but did poorly with those who voted early and on election day. The thing is, what will matter is how many of these votes are valid, how many get thrown out, and so forth. The key question to ask is what the historical percentage of provisional votes that are valid are. Is it 50%? Is it 80?

              Assuming that 80% of the 2K are valid, that leaves around 1600 votes. In that case Hogan needs 1304 to win. That's around 82 % of the final votes.

              If 60% of the 2K are valid, that leaves only 1200 votes. In that case, being down 603 votes, that's the deficit that Hogan needs to make up. In that case he needs to pick more than 900 votes. Ironically, with lesser ballots, he needs 75% of the vote.

              Now, if only half are valid, that leaves 1000 votes. In that case Hogan needs 700 or 70% of the vote.

              Something is wrong with my math. If the number of ballots dwindles, how is it that is easier for Hogan to win?

      •  Provisionals and turnout (0+ / 0-)

        It's odd that a large number of the precincts that went with Brown in last nights numbers are precincts that went with Moran in the first election.  Her R votes translated into a lot of D votes for Brown. Take Atlantic Beach, for instance.

        The provisionals are mostly from those that voted using an absentee ballot yesterday, and require review to guard against double voting.  Of the first few hundred reviewed thus far this morning, all were accepted as legit, but we'll see how it goes this afternoon and tomorrow.

        Knowing Hogan's team as I do, particularly his pollster, whom I've worked with and been a friend for over 20 years, and his chief strategist, whom I've known and worked with for 30+ years, they are preparing for the inevitable.

        On the other hand, Brown is preparing for something wierd to happen.  He refused to claim victory last night, knowing that a) this is Jacksonville, and b) this is Florida.

        I did see that state GOP heads are about to roll on this.  They put a lot into Hogan, and big names campaigned here yesterday, predicting a 10% win.  Ooops!

        This will have serious implications, regardless of the final outcome, on Scott, Haridopolous, and Hasner.  Thrasher isn't looking too good now, either.

        Biggest losers, though.  Hogan's staff.  Blew a big lead to an unknown.

    •  Not official, but final (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades

      Jacksonville FL, home of the HS named after the founder of the KKK, has its first African American Democratic Mayor, Alvin Brown.

      Shock, Shock I tell you, among the GOPers around the country.

    •  Well, not official yet, but it's looking final. (0+ / 0-)

      Congratulations Mayor-Elect Alvin Brown!  Way to go!

      Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo! So little time, so much to know!

      by KingofSpades on Wed May 18, 2011 at 07:57:18 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Bucyrus Sullivan for Wis Senate? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    dc1000, Odysseus

    i have no knowledge of this particular possible Senate challenger for Herb Kohl's seat but I thought i would pass this along.

    This article does not even clarify which party primary Bucyrus Sullivan is interested in running.  However, his motivation is clear, he just got a ton of cash selling his corporation and is looking for his next life challenge.

    http://www.bizjournals.com/...

    "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

    by walja on Wed May 18, 2011 at 07:14:36 AM PDT

    •  Oh, good (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen

      Another rich guy looking to buy the Senate seat of...another rich guy.

      Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Wed May 18, 2011 at 07:17:49 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  are you dumping on Kohl? (0+ / 0-)

        i thought he was pretty decent.  

        •  His voting record is just fine (5+ / 0-)

          I don't like the attitude I perceive of "well, I'm rich, so I might as well have a U.S. Senate seat while I'm in the business of owning lots of things" though. I'm sure Sen. Kohl is actually a really nice guy, but he's never been a strong advocate for anything in terms of public policy and he's always given me the impression of a part-time senator rather than a dedicated and hard-charging public servant.

          Then again, my states' senators spoil me, so what do I know.

          Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

          by SaoMagnifico on Wed May 18, 2011 at 07:51:46 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •   Not Quite Fair... (0+ / 0-)

            Senator Kohl was a significant advocate for seniors and put a focus on constituent services.  He wasn't flashy but that doesn't mean he didn't care.  Good policy doesn't get made in front of a camera.  

            Feingold on the other hand was a fire breathing wonk that didn't care about constituent services.

            One was going to get a free walk to re-elect and one got trounced by a moron.  

          •  His voting record was ok (0+ / 0-)

            But, on points where I disagree with him or I bet a lot of people on this site would, he voted for DOMA, for the 2002 Iraq War Resolution, has "long supported a balanced budget amendment", and voted for the Bush tax cut.

            My impression is that this was his big policy priority:

            In 2005 he secured a victory for one of his main causes: requiring handguns to be sold with child safety locks. The amendment was attached to the Protection of Lawful Commerce in Arms Act, with every Democrat and many Republicans voting in favor of the amendment. Earlier in his career, he helped push the Gun-Free Schools Act which the U.S. Supreme Court overturned in 1995 and has submitted many amendments to that effect.[4]

            (from http://en.wikipedia.org/...)

            25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

            by Xenocrypt on Wed May 18, 2011 at 08:56:54 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  At first (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      walja, James Allen, sapelcovits, jncca

      I thought his name was Bucyrus Sullivan. That definitely sounds like a bad-ass, old school Senator name. I was disappointed when I found out he was a Tim.

      26, Male, MA-08 (hometown MI-06)

      by bumiputera on Wed May 18, 2011 at 08:45:08 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  sorry for name confusion (0+ / 0-)

        Like you I was so intrigued by the name Bucyrus that my brief headline did indeed make it appear his first name was Bucyrus when it is the name of the Company he sold.  But Tim Sullivan is a complete unknown to me so it explains the mistake.

        "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

        by walja on Wed May 18, 2011 at 08:52:07 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  He is the Chairman of MMAC (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          walja

          Which is the Milwaukee Chamber of Commerce.  It recently vehemently opposed the paid sick days ordinance in the city of Milwaukee.  On the other hand, I believe the MMAC has generally supported infrastructure spending.  Additionally, Bucyrus has a very good relationship with its union and Sullivan himself has come out against two-tiered wage structures: http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/...

          So if he were to run as a Democrat, he would win easily in a general since it would neutralize all the attacks of Dems being anti-business, Marxists, Socialists, Communists.   He would probably be a Mark Warner type of Senator, so not that bad.  

          On the other hand, if he runs as a Independent, that would really mess things up and make it a very unpredictable election.  

          All Wisconsin, All the Time

          by glame on Wed May 18, 2011 at 09:10:38 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Wow, thanks for the mention Dave (17+ / 0-)

    And thanks for all the congratulations in the comments today and last night.

    Democratic turnout was awful :
    http://election.co.delaware.pa.us/...

    I voted at 7:05 am for myself. I was the first Democrat in the precinct, and I believe the ward, to vote. With my first ever vote, I gave myself the victory.

    Going into the ballot box and pressing your own name is a feeling like nothing else.

    Although, even for me, my race wasn't the most interesting. There was a competitive primary in the 6th ward. Commissioner Layden barely pulled it out over former Commissioner Devenny, 445-407. A lot of sweating at the Republican afterparty, as Devenny led until the final precinct came in.

    18, Dem, PA-07, Warning_Crazy from SSP Democratic Candidate for Ward Commissioner in Springfield (Delco) Ward 1

    by Cole Stevens on Wed May 18, 2011 at 07:59:57 AM PDT

    •  Congrats (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone

      And best wishes going forward.

    •  So what's your strategy for the general? (0+ / 0-)

      What's your platform, and why should voters choose you instead of your --ah-- esteemed opponent?

      "I hope; therefore, I can live."
      For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

      by tietack on Wed May 18, 2011 at 08:27:53 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Well.. (13+ / 0-)

        Right now the board is controlled 7-0 by the republicans. It's been like that for quite a long time. All the business of the board is conducted behind closed doors in a little room right before the meetings. That is not how it should be. Sweetheart deals to friends and family members take money away from our township and our schools. If nothing else, even if the board is controlled 6-1, I can identify and expose the corruption going on.

        In addition, I'm against the billboards, and wish to turn the Ice Rink, which has been out of commission for a long time with barely any updates, to a rec center, or something like that.

        As for my strategy.. I'm gonna knock on every single door in the ward. Twice. And make sure that I talk to every single registered voter. I'll also help register those who aren't registered. I have many of my friends and family members who are impressed by what I'm doing, and they are willing to help out as well. I've even had offers from people who wanted to be my campaign manager. Springfield votes republican. If I want to win, I'm just going to outwork Mr. Culp by 100 times. Unfortunately, I think he's taking me seriously and is going to work too.

        18, Dem, PA-07, Warning_Crazy from SSP Democratic Candidate for Ward Commissioner in Springfield (Delco) Ward 1

        by Cole Stevens on Wed May 18, 2011 at 08:41:33 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Congrats (0+ / 0-)
      Going into the ballot box and pressing your own name is a feeling like nothing else.

      I've only ever experienced it in university elections, but I agree. Voting for yourself is a lot of fun.

      30, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.

      by borodino21 on Wed May 18, 2011 at 10:25:14 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  How much did Alison Grimes win (0+ / 0-)

    last night hurt Beshear? He was on the loosing side of the two Kentucky Democratic factions last night. That was a big proxy battle.

    19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Wed May 18, 2011 at 08:31:44 AM PDT

  •  another possible GOP candidate (0+ / 0-)

    Whose name is popping up for 2012 would be Tim Michels who was last seen losing the 2004 Senate race to Russ Feingold.  That year he defeated Car dealer Russ Darrow, former Sen,, Bob Welch, and Robert Lorge in the Republican primary.

    "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

    by walja on Wed May 18, 2011 at 08:59:18 AM PDT

  •  Pete King for president? (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Xenocrypt, drhoosierdem, James Allen

    He's considering it! http://online.wsj.com/...

  •  I want one! (5+ / 0-)

    https://donate.barackobama.com/page/contribute/o2012-made-in-the-usa-shirt-z

  •  Some bad news about (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    drobertson

    Epic Jacksonville at-large winner Kimberly "literally became a street person" Daniels:

    She told Charisma News she ran on the Democratic ticket to “bring the favor of the Lord to Jacksonville.” Rapper MC Hammer and Pastor John Hagee endorsed Daniels in the battle.

    (http://www.charismamag.com/...)

    Yes, that John Hagee, who you might remember for being a complete lunatic:

    He has spoken out against homosexuality, linking its presence in New Orleans to Hurricane Katrina as an act of divine retribution. He said in 2006, "I believe that New Orleans had a level of sin that was offensive to God, and they are—were recipients of the judgment of God for that. The newspaper carried the story in our local area, that was not carried nationally, that there was to be a homosexual parade there on the Monday that the Katrina came."[26][27] However, on April 25, 2008, Hagee clarified his comments regarding Hurricane Katrina by saying, "But ultimately neither I nor any other person can know the mind of God concerning Hurricane Katrina. I should not have suggested otherwise."[28]

    But I will say this for Daniels--she founded groups to help ex-convicts and women with substance abuse problems.  That doesn't make up for the whole theocrat thing, but it's a gigantic lot more than a lot of people who make a lot of noise about being pro-life and pro-family bother doing.

    25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

    by Xenocrypt on Wed May 18, 2011 at 09:54:07 AM PDT

    •  Yet more bad news (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      drobertson

      http://jacksonville.com/...

      Daniels, who preaches and writes religious commentaries, faced criticism from progressives for her stance against homosexuality. She was also ridiculed for a comment that "the Jews own everything," for saying she was glad for slavery because the enslavement of her African ancestors allowed her to embrace Christianity in America.

      I might have to start an all-Kimberly-Daniels, all-the-time blog.

      25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

      by Xenocrypt on Wed May 18, 2011 at 09:56:30 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Worse news (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCCyclone, Goobergunch, drobertson

        Including the fact that the Jews quote is even more horrible.

        However, it is her recent quotes and not her distant past that is most disconcerting. Her bizarre beliefs include the notion that Halloween candy can be tainted by demons.

        "I do not buy candy during the Halloween season," Daniels told Charisma magazine on October 27, 2009. "Curses are sent through the tricks and treats of the innocent whether they get it by going door-to-door or by purchasing it from the local grocery store. The demons can't tell the difference." (Pretty dumb demons, I'd say.)

        Of course, the big question we all want to know is whether the hard shells of M&M's make them demon-proof? Not surprisingly, Daniels is known as a "demon buster" who gives exorcisms to rid people of various maladies.

        "We have experienced much success in one-session deliverances," Daniels wrote in her book, Clean House, Strong House..."However, there have been times when I have personally walked homosexuals, ex-witches, and drug addicts through sessions that took place over a couple of years."

        There is no word on weather former Delaware U.S. Senate candidate Christine O'Donnell was among the witches miraculously saved by Daniels.

        Researcher Bruce Wilson dove further into Daniels' treasure trove of quotes this week and discovered some new gems that will likely – or should – end her political career. For example, Wilson discovered a video of Wilson saying, "You can talk about the Holocaust, but the Jews own everything."
        ...

        "I thank God for slavery," preached Daniels, in a sermon that was captured on video. "If it wasn't for slavery, I might be somewhere in Africa worshipping a tree." (And who would be here in America to warn us about the danger of Satanic Skittles?)
        ...

        Daniels' realizes that city council races usually have a low voter turnout. Her strategy is to run a stealth campaign and flood the polls with fundamentalist voters, while avoiding reporters who will ask tough questions. She will likely use the Christian media and a network of churches in heavily religious Jacksonville to disseminate her message and get voters to the polls. The Examiner website opines: "If you are running for office, you need to be available to talk to voters and reporters. This is something Ms. Daniels apparently is not able to do."


        http://www.southfloridagaynews.com/...

        So--did she win on coattails, racial/party-line voting, and a low turnout/downballot race, or with the sort of under-the-radar religious marketing campaign that have helped people like Mel Gibson and Tyler Perry in the cinematic arena.  If the latter, that'd be pretty interesting.  

        25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

        by Xenocrypt on Wed May 18, 2011 at 10:02:32 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  it appears .. (0+ / 0-)

          coattails played major role, look at maps comparing Brown-Hogan to Daniels-Taylor:

          http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/...

          also interesting to note in a couple of the GOP v. GOP races, the winning candidate was the one who won the urban AA core, while loser was one who did well in the outer areas --  for Council at Large - Group 4: Anderson areas follow Brown while Robinson areas follow Hogan, and in Tax Collector race (though less of a perfect correlation here), Corrigan areas follow Brown and Kravitz areas follow Hogan ..

          (that said, Daniels seems like a nutcase to me) ..

          •  meant to add .. (0+ / 0-)

            coattails and simple racial/party-line voting played major role ...

            •  Yeah, that makes more sense (0+ / 0-)

              Correlation doesn't imply causation, after all.  I would've thought that, if there were any city where suburbs beat urban core, it'd be Jacksonville--since I thought the core was pretty small, and it sort of cheated its way into being thought of as a huge city with city/county consolidation.  This site seems to have the demographic scoop:

              http://www.metrojacksonville.com/...

              25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

              by Xenocrypt on Wed May 18, 2011 at 10:52:58 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

          •  It only gets (0+ / 0-)

            Worse and worse.  Check out www.whoiskimberlydaniels.com.  When I first saw her bio, I wondered if she was statewide material.  Now I wonder if (assuming her narrow lead holds) she could be worth a few bad news cycles embarrassment to the party.  What's Bill Nelson do if he's campaigning in Jacksonville?  What if there's a viable district post-redistricting?  

            25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

            by Xenocrypt on Wed May 18, 2011 at 10:46:44 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  It had to be the "D" next to her name, plus... (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Xenocrypt, drobertson, KingofSpades

          ...voter ignorance.

          I'll admit, in years past I've voted for Democrats on my ballot without recognizing names or knowing anything about them.  I did that in college at Iowa State, and in law school at Duke in North Carolina.  I lived in D.C. from 1993 until summer 2008, and only in my late 20s did I start paying closer attention to individual candidates.  And I'm a hyperpolitical guy, you can safely assume most voters regardless of age, even in a low-turnout local election in May off an odd-year, know nothing about the candidates.

          As embarrassing as this is for Jacksonville, for local Democrats, and for so many of this victor's voters who would be horrified if they only knew what they just did, in a weird way this actually is a good sign for the party.  That's because she can chalk up her victory to the "D" next to her name, and that means our brand has improved, even if only relative to the "R" brand.

          43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Wed May 18, 2011 at 10:52:00 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Yeah, good point (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            DCCyclone

            Plus, the guy she was running against had his own bad press--one article did the "both draw criticism" headline, another did the "made for hollywood" headline.  Here is the jacksonville.com paper, the Times-Union, endorsing her opponent:

            David Taylor* for council at large
            If David Taylor did not have some serious ethical issues surrounding him, he would be as fine a candidate as this editorial board has interviewed. He is conversant with the issues and has a sharp mind.
            His opponent in Group 1, Kimberly Daniels, has little public service experience.
            Since voters can't choose "None of the above" in the voting booth, we are going to use our "Meserve rule" that served well in a previous election.
            John Meserve was clearly the best candidate in a previous City Council race, but he was dealing with allegations involving a real estate license. He had insisted on his innocence.
            Thus, we wrote that a vote for Meserve would work one of two ways:
            - If he was innocent, nothing was lost.
            - If charges were serious, the governor would replace him with a better candidate than his opponents at the time. That is what happened. Meserve was replaced with former City Councilman Art Graham.
            Similarly, a vote for Taylor should work out for the best in either case.

            Read more at Jacksonville.com: http://jacksonville.com/...

            Not exactly a ringing one.  If the mainstream local coverage was "what a circus/they're both crooks" (Daniels apparently lives in a mansion paid tax-free with church funds), then even political junkies might have shrugged it off as cancelling out and gone by partisan impulse.  Here's an article on the charges against Taylor, who might well win in a recount, after all: http://mayportmirror.jacksonville.com/...

            (I can't believe, of all the stuff about Daniels, they went with "little experience".  A minister who runs (local?) charitable organizations, assuming they're legit, would probably have quite a bit of experience with the functions and needs of city government, no?)

            25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

            by Xenocrypt on Wed May 18, 2011 at 11:07:29 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Of course.. (0+ / 0-)

              Maybe the experience charge sticks.  Unless :

              For her part, Daniels agreed that the council must be fiscally responsible. But she added that while the board's goal should be to cut taxes, she believes it's wrong for candidates, herself included, to flatly promise cuts because "they don't know what the budget is. They haven't seen the numbers."

              Read more at Jacksonville.com: http://jacksonville.com/...

              Well, take it from this demon-possessed homosexual, Apparent-Councilwoman Daniels--you can see the numbers yourself!  Better read up, since you'll somehow be voting on them: http://www3.coj.net/...

              25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

              by Xenocrypt on Wed May 18, 2011 at 11:12:48 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  Ok, never mind (0+ / 0-)

      Daniels is behind by 5, I must've missed this:

      http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/...

      How did she get the nomination at all?

      25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

      by Xenocrypt on Wed May 18, 2011 at 10:31:36 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I don't see how Chris Shays (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DCCyclone

    gets out of the primary, let alone actually wins with Obama on the top of the ticket.

    •  and if he wanted to run (0+ / 0-)

      he would have had a better shot in 2010.

      At least then he could have run for his old job back and might have at a shot at winning it.

      Help raise money for disaster relief efforts by searching the web & give the profits from your web searches to charity instead of Google! Click here for Search+Win with Music for Relief

      by izengabe on Wed May 18, 2011 at 10:39:56 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Himes (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone, The Caped Composer

      While I'm annoyed by some of his statements and actions (proposing a bunch of random little cuts to show we're serious, saying $250,000-a-year isn't really rich in his district, when it sure is), did very well in 2010--I ran the numbers, and he almost won the district minus Bridgeport.  I am sure Shays retains some goodwill, but I don't know if it'd be enough.

      25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

      by Xenocrypt on Wed May 18, 2011 at 11:16:37 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Bachmann has to give up her Rep seat doesn't she? (0+ / 0-)

    Surely she can't run in both elections.  That alone is a big plus.

    I'm sure Bachmann feels that Palin was so popular it would be a cakewalk for her to win primaries.  And if not, she might make millions like Palin.  

    "We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them." ~Albert Einstein

    by ParkRanger on Wed May 18, 2011 at 10:17:19 AM PDT

    •  MN has a late primary (0+ / 0-)

      and probable a late filing deadline. So, even if Bachmann's campaign fails out by February or March, she'll probably still have time to file for re-election.

    •  She can run in both for a long time (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ParkRanger

      She already filed for reelection to her House seat.

      She can run for President, too, for a very long time.

      The question on running for both offices at once depends on state law.  Biden was "reelected" to his Senate seat in 2008, 65-35 over Christine O'Donnell, on the same day he was elected Obama's VP.  And of course LBJ did the same.  If Minnesota law is like Delaware's and Texas', Bachmann can run for both.

      Even if Bachmann has to choose, she almost certainly would be allowed to be filed for both offices for a long time, well into 2012.

      43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Wed May 18, 2011 at 10:46:29 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Thanks, DC. Some states allow and some don't (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCCyclone

        I didn't know how it would work in MN.  So, if she doesn't really think she is viable as a Presidential candidate now I would think she would be itching to get the money for the campaign, ratchet up her name recognition, and maybe make some outside cash in some way like Palin did.

        "We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them." ~Albert Einstein

        by ParkRanger on Wed May 18, 2011 at 10:52:38 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yes re money, you can transfer across campaigns (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ParkRanger

          She can run for President, raise money for that, drop out, and transfer those funds to her House reelection campaign.  You can transfer money across federal campaigns that way.  So this is a good money-making gambit.

          43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Wed May 18, 2011 at 12:37:36 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Quinn & Redistricting (0+ / 0-)
    I mean, hey, isn't this the reason we all voted for Pat-freakin-Quinn, anyway? (Jeffmd)/blockquote>

    Yes, yes, yes. Yes it is EXACTLY why I voted for Quinn.

    One can never be sure with IL tho--there is some history of playing footsie with GOPers the Democratic powerbrokers like and seats get left alone that have no business being left alone.

    In re: ideological purity-- We can't govern if we don't win-Toby Ziegler

    by ChicagoCillen on Wed May 18, 2011 at 10:37:09 AM PDT

    •  I'm with you... (0+ / 0-)

      I voted for Quinn because, well, we needed the trifecta. I honestly didn't expect Quinn to manage to pull it out....and am remarkably grateful that he did.

      I've been ambivalent about Quinn's performance, but his signing of the civil unions bill and hopefully, his signature on a nice 13-5 congressional map will seal my approval...

  •  Quinnipiac on OH: Kasich approvals 38/49 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DCCyclone
    Ohio voters disapprove 49 - 38 percent of the job Gov. John Kasich is doing, compared to 46 - 30 disapproval in March, while by 54 - 36 percent they say that SB 5 should be repealed, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

    http://www.quinnipiac.edu/...

  •  UT-Gov (0+ / 0-)

    I don't care who wins that primary as long as the Democrats nominate someone named Ash.

    21, male, RI-01 (voting)/IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

    by sapelcovits on Wed May 18, 2011 at 10:55:08 AM PDT

  •  Texas Senate approved new Senate districts (0+ / 0-)

    http://www.statesman.com/...

    some slight changes from the original to have Watson's district take in more of east-central Austin, and some accomodating changes in districts in the eastern San Antonio area to make the population numbers work

    http://gis1.tlc.state.tx.us/

    original plan was PLANS107, think the approved one was PLANS148

  •  WATN: Rick Boucher off to K Street (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    drobertson

    former Congressman Rick Boucher (D) VA-09 has joined Sidley Austin LLP as a partner in the Washington, D.C. office. Mr. Boucher will lead Sidley’s government strategies practice.

    Generally taking a job as a lobbyist means he's not planning on running again.

    Help raise money for disaster relief efforts by searching the web & give the profits from your web searches to charity instead of Google! Click here for Search+Win with Music for Relief

    by izengabe on Wed May 18, 2011 at 12:26:56 PM PDT

  •  Ntl: Obama at at 47/45 approval, up 3 over Romney (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DCCyclone

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

    by andyroo312 on Wed May 18, 2011 at 12:41:17 PM PDT

    •  Bad sample, too, way too conservative (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, drhoosierdem

      I've grown leery of challenging a poll's makeup except under extreme circumstances, but this one has some eye-opening problems.  The biggest one is age:  53% of the respondents are 55 or older.  That's way too old.  The 2008 exit poll said only 43% were 50-and-up, a broader age bracket than what I just cited for Suffolk and yet 10 points smaller, and the 2010 exit poll was 53% for 50-and-up, the same % as Suffolk but again a broader age range, and that was a midterm with an  uncommonly older and more conservative turnout model.

      Also, this Suffolk poll's sample is considerably whiter and less black than the inevitable reality.  They say only 9% black, when it was 13% last time and will be no less this time with the nation's first black President again on the ballot.  Suffolk says 77% white, when it was 74% last time and will be even less this time as demographic shift continues.

      Overall, this poll is good for Obama in suggesting him a likely winner even with a more GOP-friendly turnout than will actually happen.

      43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Wed May 18, 2011 at 01:15:39 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Allen West robocalls for Jane Corwin (0+ / 0-)

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

    by andyroo312 on Wed May 18, 2011 at 12:46:59 PM PDT

    •  With her permission? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      BeloitDem

      Wow.

      Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9. Was hoosierdem on SSP, but that username was already taken here :(

      by drhoosierdem on Wed May 18, 2011 at 01:41:21 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  yup with permission (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        itskevin

        the purpose of the West robocalls is undermine the link between Jack Davis, the Tea Party nominee, and the Tea Party movement.  He is trying to activate their latent Teadar (right wing gaydar).

        What the GOP does not realize is that the voters have passed judgement on Jane Corwin already - and they don't like her.

        "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

        by walja on Wed May 18, 2011 at 05:50:16 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Cole not the first from DK.. (0+ / 0-)

    User Mr. Liberal/Stephen Yellin was the Democratic nominee for city council in 2010 and is again this year!

    --Colorado, CD 05--

    by cosdem on Wed May 18, 2011 at 12:54:26 PM PDT

    •  Not bad at all, (0+ / 0-)

      especially given that more Dems are undecided than Republicans and Inslee's name recognition is lower.

      McKenna will have to thread every needle just right to win this one.

      Republican Attorney General Rob McKenna leads Democratic Congressman Jay Inslee 40-38 in PPP's first look at the match up, but with 23% of Democrats undecided compared to only 13% of Republicans Inslee would likely make up that small deficit pretty fast once he got into a statewide campaign.
    •  Toss-up w/o Gregiore, Likely R with her (0+ / 0-)

      Are there any indications which way she's leaning?

      For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

      by andyroo312 on Wed May 18, 2011 at 02:16:28 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  PPP/NC: Dems Retake Lead on Generic State Ballot (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    BennyToothpick, KingofSpades
    Since voters don't like most of what the Republican majority is trying to do, it should perhaps come as no surprise that Democrats have now taken a 45-43 lead on the generic legislative ballot. Republicans led by 11 points on that measure right before the election last November and had a 46-42 lead on it as recently as February. But independents have been moving away from the GOP since that time- they still have a 37-33 lead with them but that's down quite a bit from 41-29 in February and with the large Democratic registration advantage in the state Republicans need to win by a bigger margin than that with independents if they want to win overall.

    Beyond that is also a small but meaningful group of Republican voters abandoning their party as it goes far to the right- in February only 1% of GOP partisans said they would vote Democratic for the legislature but that figure is now up to 6%.

    The political landscape in North Carolina has seen a pretty fundamental shift in the last six months.

    http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/...

    •  PS. Of course, by 2012, (0+ / 0-)

      all the redistricting damage will already have been done. :(

      •  The state is still getting away from them (3+ / 0-)

        That a liberal black Democrat from Chicago suddenly can win the state for President of all things, just means the state is becoming less conservative and a lot of corners tougher for a Republican to hold.  That trend will continue through the decade, and just like the previous decade in many states, seats designed to be "safe" Republican will prove not so.  I think this decade NC will be one of those states (it wasn't last time b/c Dems controlled redistricting).

        43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Wed May 18, 2011 at 06:41:02 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  In state leg. reapportionment.... (0+ / 0-)

        I believe they are forbidden by State Constitution from splitting counties.

        Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo! So little time, so much to know!

        by KingofSpades on Wed May 18, 2011 at 08:24:37 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  more on South Africa here: (0+ / 0-)

    DA is leading in early returns. If they take Johannesburg and Port Elizabeth, that'd be HUGE: http://www.businessweek.com/...

  •  wow (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    drhoosierdem, LordMike, itskevin

    I just called a Democratic voter in NY-26 who said she was voting for Jack Davis because she disliked Hochul's negative campaigning. Guess there really are Democrats who aren't just voting for Davis because of residual name ID.

    21, male, RI-01 (voting)/IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

    by sapelcovits on Wed May 18, 2011 at 03:48:58 PM PDT

    •  I get the sense it's mostly conservaDems... (0+ / 0-)

      ...who are still in line with Davis. This, in all fairness, doesn't necessarily hurt Hochul, since these folks would've probably backed Corwin instead. My hunch is, however, that most conservative Tea Partiers are finally awakening to the phoniness of Davis's "Tea Party" candidacy. I still say Davis winds up in single-digits come election night.

      For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

      by andyroo312 on Wed May 18, 2011 at 04:10:22 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  She also said Corwin was too negative (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike

        but it makes sense that the more conservative Dems wouldn't necessarily be so hot on Hochul.

        21, male, RI-01 (voting)/IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

        by sapelcovits on Wed May 18, 2011 at 04:14:16 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  You gotta expect everything in canvassing (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike

          Whether it's on the phone or at their doors, you get all kinds in mass voter contact work.  You'll get a black voter with Obama posters in her house voting for a Republican House candidate, or an elderly white lady with photos of Bush and The Pope who is voting for a Obama for President, and on and on and on with voters breaking type.  These individuals are few, but they exist.  We have an electorate of over 130 million people now, a staggering number, so there's at least one of everything.

          I've learned that you can't generalize from the experience unless you're doing the same precincts repeatedly over time, and you get to know a particular area well enough to have a sense of what to expect.  But even then, you can't generalize beyond that little locality.

          43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Wed May 18, 2011 at 06:38:00 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  How is Davis' candidacy (0+ / 0-)

        "phony"? He seems as Tea-Party-ish as any of the Tea Partiers. Sure, he ran as Dem, but he was also a Republican before that, and when he ran as a Dem he was considered conservative.

        My sense is that he may be as authentic now as he's ever been.

  •  GA-Sen('14) -- Look who wants to primary Chambilss (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    drhoosierdem, DCCyclone
    Tonight on the Erick Erickson Show, we’ll talk about my possible bid for the United States Senate

    ego!

    "I hope; therefore, I can live."
    For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

    by tietack on Wed May 18, 2011 at 05:05:58 PM PDT

  •  Nevada redistricting (0+ / 0-)

    Sigh, 200 plus comments so far and nothing about Nevada (even if the map has no chance).

    The thing I find interesting is they went to make the Reno district much redder, but then didn't make it as redder go the logical next step.  Since they are breaking Lyon county in two (one county has to be divided somehow), why didn't they include more of Lyon in the 4th and put all of White Pine in the 2nd?

    White Pine was a 64/32 McCain district, while Lyon was only 58/40.  True, McCain's total meant he only won by 1200 votes in White Pine, but shed that and add more of Lyon and the 4th becomes at least a couple hundred votes more Democratic.  And the map would look just as compact.

    A few hundred votes could be the difference between 3-1 and 2-2.

    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/11/13/21516/201/804/660248

    by tommypaine on Wed May 18, 2011 at 05:11:45 PM PDT

  •  MI-Senate: Stabenow Vulnerable (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, borodino21

    This is just strange.  Not that Senator Stabenow is vulnerable, we all know that, but that despite consistently polling below 50% approval, has been unable to attract a serious Republican challenge:

    EPIC-MRA: May 2nd - May 11th

    Debbie Stabenow

    Favorable: 47%
    Unfavorable: 29%

    The president gets a majority favorability rating here in Michigan, but also has a higher unfavorable than Stabenow:

    Barack Obama

    Favorable: 53%
    Unfavorable: 40%

    Governor Rick Snyder, though, is more unpopular than any of the Democrats:

    Rick Snyder

    Favorable: 38%
    Unfavorable: 42%

    All in all, while numbers are still pretty luke-warm for Dems, Republicans seem unable to capitalize on anything here in Michigan.

  •  It's Official! Alvin Brown elected Jax Mayor! (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, borodino21, itskevin

    Congrats to the first AA mayor of Jaxonville and the first Dem elected there in 20 years!
    http://staugustine.com/...

    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo! So little time, so much to know!

    by KingofSpades on Wed May 18, 2011 at 09:07:13 PM PDT

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