This morning our (those of us who are American) President gave a speech outlining American Policy in the Middle East. In it he reiterated some basic themes that the U.S. has stood on for a long time. He really proposed no new direct action and honestly this speech seemed a continuation of the Cairo Speech he gave in 2009.
As I thought of this diary I went back to some comments I made regarding the speech. In the case of the President, I think I got it right. Here is the comment:
As far as President Obama... I think he will talk in generalities recognizing the Palestinians right to a nation but will add the phrase that it can only come from "meaningful dialogue between Israelis and Palestinians" and then will reiterate that while he stands for justice and peace everywhere, he recognizes our long standing friendship with the Israelis and has sympathy given Jewish history for the need for the existence of Israel. In short, I think he say nothing new or directed.
I do think he will support something along the lines of Taba or will give serious consideration to the PPI
Again, just my $ .02
DK4: For those times when pissing in the hummus isn't enough
by volleyboy1 on Tue May 17, 2011 at 10:53:18 AM PDT
I think I was right and that while the President reiterated a few long standing positions really he didn't say anything new here. That said, sometimes repeating the Old helps things sink in.
Now as Israelis and Palestinians "digest" this information, the President is proposing a different American course in the Middle East in general. He is proposing what sounds like a new "Marshall Plan" for the Arab world and he seems to be hoping that democracy, and economic security for a building Middle Class will defeat radicalism and militancy. It is against this backdrop that he sees resolution to the conflict between Israelis and Palestinians.
His speech as I mentioned above seemed to be an echo of support for some form of agreement crafted along the lines of the Taba Summit, and the PPI (Private Peace Initiative. I think he did a good job of articulating the concerns of both side and what is realistic to expect.
Here is Ynet (Israel's Main Online News Service) reporting
WASHINGTON – Israel must act boldly in order to advance a peace agreement with the Palestinians, President Barack Obama said in his highly anticipated Mideast policy speech Thursday, presenting his vision for future negotiations.
"The dream of a Jewish and democratic state cannot be fulfilled with permanent occupation," he said.
"There are those who argue that with all the change and uncertainty in the region, it is simply not possible to move forward (on peace,)" Obama said. "I disagree… the drive for a lasting peace that ends the conflict and resolves all claims is more urgent than ever."
Obama blamed both Israel and the Palestinians for failing to meet expectations in their pursuit of peace thus far....
In his speech the President recognized the realities of Israel as a Jewish State but seemingly implied that Israel could only be Two of the following three things:
1. A Jewish State
2. A Democracy
3. A State encompassing territory between the Mediterannean and Jordan.
In America, that position is echoed by the progressive J Street organization.
Following this the President AND Prime Minister Netanyahu of Israel is addressing the AIPAC (American Israel Public Affairs Committee 2011 Conference along with John Boehner, Harry Reid, Eric Cantor, Steny Hoyer and others.
In this I expect the President to reiterate his speech but with a more Pro-Israel stretch. However, here is what I expect from Prime Minister Netanyahu at AIPAC (this is my quote)
I think he will give the same speech he gave to the Knesset this week.
He will propose something like a combination of Mofaz', Lieberman's and Olmert's final offer. My bet is that it will look like the Alon plan with Jerusalem and major settlements out of the mix. In other words he will offer:
1. 50-60% of the West Bank,
2. Some crappy land swaps (if at all)
3. No Jerusalem
4. a Demilitarized Palestinian State
5. Joint Security arrangements
6. No recognition of any RoR, or compensation
7. Palestinians must make permanent peace and recognize Israel as a Jewish State.
I may be wrong but I don't think so.
There is my prediction. If I am wrong you can all say.. Told 'ya so!
DK4: For those times when pissing in the hummus isn't enough
by volleyboy1 on Tue May 17, 2011 at 09:56:30 AM PDT
While some of this matches the Obama Speech, there are some significant differences.
One think about this is that this is only a prediction of what Mr. Netanyahu might say and it is what he basically said already at the Israeli Knesset. Will anything change between now and his speech in America, I don't know but I don't think so.
Already PM Netanyahu has rejected the call to "retreat to the indefensible 1967 borders" but "appreciates his message of Peace" (Reuters Statement appearing on Haaretz online). Perhaps he missed this part of the speech (thanks to canadian gal who has a diary with the full transcript up):
"...The borders of Israel and Palestine should be based on the 1967 lines with mutually agreed swaps, so that secure and recognized borders are established for both states."
I have not seen anything from President Abbas of the PA or Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh (currently sidelined with a soccer injury) on this speech.
My initial reaction is that while I liked the speech and I support it's goals 10000% I don't see that there was much new here. There were no specifics to jump start the process, there were no suggestions as to how to improve things, there was really nothing remarkable at all about it. It seemed to be a continued reiteration of what has been American policy for the Obama years.
One thing is that unlike many in the Left Wing blogosphere, the President seems sure that this is a policy that will work and keep America relevant given the proposed scale of economic aid. He is betting that the idealism of the "Arab Spring" (which has effectively changed governments in two places, and both are still undecided) will be tempered by the realism of running a government and actually providing services and goods to people that need them.
However, in the short term the Presidents speech signals no immediate shifts in the situation but as he mentioned there really is no immediate change capable of happening here.
Stay tuned for upcoming reactions from the Israeli and Palestinian governments as well as the lunatic fringe as this gets discussed.
Shalom