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Senate:

MA-Sen: 1199 SEIU is launching radio ads (no word on the size of the buy) targeting Scott Brown over the upcoming vote on the Ryan budget plan, which is expected next week. I'm not sure how much Brown realizes he's jammed himself on this one.

NJ-Sen (PDF): Bob Menendez seems to be doing pretty well in Monmouth's new poll: His job approval now stands at 48-30, his best marks in quite some time. A year ago, when Monmouth last checked in, he was at 38-33

NY-Sen: Not that you were worried, but Kirsten Gillibrand's favorable rating clocks in at 51-20 (down a little from February's record high of 57-18) in Siena's latest survey. Her re-elects are basically unchanged at 50-30. Also, gay marriage is still favored by a majority of New Yorkers. Amusingly, when asked to name their top legislative priority out of a list of five, seven percent of respondents said they wanted lawmakers to create an independent redistricting commission. Needless to say, that was the lowest-ranked issue, but seven percent is higher than I'd have guessed!

WI-Sen: I think this is the first time we've actually heard from the horse's mouth, but unfortunately it's not particularly interesting: Dem Rep. Tammy Baldwin confirms that she is indeed interested in seeking Herb Kohl's seat, but hasn't yet made up her mind.

Much more interesting (if entirely predictable) is the fact that the Club for Growth is already firing off broadsides against ex-Gov. Tommy Thompson, calling him a "big-government pro-tax Republican." Honestly, I don't see how Thompson isn't doomed to getting teabagged to death in the GOP primary.

House:

CA-11: Ricky Gill, a 24-year-old Republican law student, announced he'd challenge Dem Rep. Jerry McNerney next year. Despite seemingly automatic Some Dude status, Gill says he's already raised $170K. Of course, there's no telling what this district will look like next year.

MO-01, MO-02, MO-LG: Who knows! Russ Carnahan tells Roll Call he's thinking about either running in the new 2nd CD (open, but still pretty red) or in the 1st CD (occupied by fellow Dem Rep. Lacy Clay). But Shira Toeplitz and Kyle Trygstad further note that Carnahan attended a Democratic Party event in Kansas City (on the opposite end of the state), adding to speculation that he might run for Lt. Gov. "or another statewide office."

NV-0?: Dina Titus tells The Daily Caller (ugh, am I really linking to them?) that she's "seriously considering" a bid to return to the House, but Jon Ralston is convinced that she's already in.

NY-10: Politico has a backgrounder on a race that we've been covering for a while here but that hasn't gotten a lot of attention yet: the nascent contest to unseat Rep. Ed Towns, one of the most useless members of the Democratic caucus. No one has officially launched a challenge, but Assemblyman Hakeem Jeffries has formed an exploratory committee and would seem to be the front-runner. But also waiting in the wings is the, ah, unpredictable Charles Barron, a city councilman who primaried Towns in 2006 and has nothing but unkind words for Jeffries.

One thing Politico missed concerning Towns' future was this tea leaf that brewed up the other night. Towns lost a vote for a district leader seat in the Brooklyn Democratic Party to city councilman Erik Martin Dilan, son of state Sen. Martin Malave Dilan (who held Erik's council seat before handing it off to his offspring). PolitickerNY says that County Leader Vito Lopez pushed hard for Dilan, which suggests that the knives might be out for Towns. (Hat-tip to Colin Campbell, whose blog "The Brooklyn Politics" you should add to your list.)

NY-26: A few NY-26 updates: Marco Rubio's doing robocalls for Jane Corwin… the National Jewish Democratic Council is doing robocalls aimed at Jewish voters… a group called the National Committee to Preserve Social Security & Medicare PAC threw in $10K on radio ads for Kathy Hochul… the American Action Network spent $32K on mailers going after both Hochul and Jack Davis… and Hochul has now raised over $1 million for the campaign.

Other Races:

Wisconsin Recall: So it now sounds like the GOP will face primaries in all three recall elections of Dem senators that are tentatively on the schedule. (The linked article mentions Jonathan Steitz and Fred Ekornaas running against Robert Wirch, and Robert Lussow and Kim Simac running against Jim Holperin; we previously knew that Mary Scray and John Nygren were both running against Dave Hansen.) If the elections happen as scheduled, then primaries would take place on July 12 and generals on August 9 — but recall targets who don't face a primary would run in generals on the earlier of the two dates. I'm having a hard time deciding whether this is a good thing or a bad thing for Democrats. Thoughts?

Grab Bag:

WATN?: Former VA-09 Dem Rep. Rick Boucher, who lost last year, is heading to biglaw firm Sidley Austin, where he'll head up their lobbying shop. (Whether it's called "government relations," "government strategies," etc., if a practice group has the word "government" in it, it's probably related to lobbying.)

Redistricting Roundup:

Alabama: A state legislative committee approved a new congressional map on Wednesday, but I can't seem to find a copy of it anywhere. However, there's a reasonably detailed description of the changes in a scrollbox in the middle of the linked article, so perhaps an intrepid Swingnut (we can still call you that, right?) can figured it out using Dave's Redistricting App. Interestingly, a second article says that the redistricting committee rejected a map that had been put forth by the committee's chairs, and which the congressional delegation had weighed in on. Instead, they picked a map that " no one from Washington had input into," according to the adopted plan's author. I'd love to see that map, too.

Nevada: Well, it just seems like more kabuki cartography, but Democrats passed their new plan through the Assembly on Wednesday, and presumably the Senate will do the same soon. Is there any way that Gov. Brian Sandoval doesn't veto again?

Oregon: I'm not sure I get Kurt Schrader's complaining about the first Democratic map for Oregon that got floated, and that actually improved his fortunes by several percentage points. Maybe he thinks he needs to lob a few rhetorical grenades in that direction to preserve his bipartisan reputation, but I can't see gerrymandering (unpopular as it is among the general public) being a make-or-break issue with fickle indies, and winning over fickle indies is less of a sure-thing way to hold down your district than, y'know, getting more Portlanders into your district. One other possibility: if his district gets too blue, maybe the increasingly Blue Doggish Schrader is worried about a primary?

Well, at any rate, Schrader can claim success, as the Dems rolled out another map yesterday that's a little less aggressive (although, given the timeframe, I'm sure it was in the works long before his complaints). It is a neater and tidier-looking map that breaks up fewer counties, with OR-03 heading south into rural Clackamas County instead of over to Hood River, and with OR-05 still reaching up into southwest Portland, just not as much. (In fact, it's really the path of least resistance: only 90,000 Oregonians find themselves in new districts with this map, compared with 200K in the first Dem map and 470K in the GOP map.) This time, it's David Wu's time to complain, though (leaving the usually irascible Peter DeFazio the only Dem House member left who hasn't carped). He's unhappy with losing 36K of his 87K constituents on Portland's west side. Who else isn't happy? The GOP. One of their lawyers already filed a suit to send the whole thing to court. Why so soon? They're trying to get a jump on venue-shopping. He filed in rural Yamhill County, whereas the 2001 redistricting, which is generally understood to have worked out well for the Dems, happened in Multnomah County (Portland). (David Jarman)

South Carolina: Republicans have released a new congressional map for the first time (click here to see), with a new seventh district based in Horry County at the state's easternmost tip. Dave Wasserman calls it a 6-1 map (that is, 6 Republican seats and just 1 Dem seat) and asks the obvious question: Will this lead to a VRA lawsuit to push for the creation of a second majority-minority district?

Texas: Lawmakers may not get around to completing a congressional map by the time they adjourn on May 30, so a special session is looking more and more likely, at least according to the state rep in charge of redistricting. However, his counterpart in the state senate says they're still working on a plan.

West Virginia: There's movement afoot in West Virginia to completely reshape the state House map. Though there are 100 lawmakers in the chamber, only 36 are elected in single-member districts. The rest hail from 22 multi-member districts which contain anywhere from two to seven (!) representatives. It seems that quite a few people are unhappy with this state of affairs, with many arguing that multi-member districts reduce accountability. Currently, only ten states allow such districts.



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Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Fri May 20, 2011 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  I'm not thrilled about the recalls... (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ER Doc, itskevin, JGibson, MichaelNY

    For the Democratic state senators in Wisconsin taking place later (and shoot me if it's not by design). If Democrats flip the Wisconsin Senate in July, there's an outside chance that complacency could just cost them it again in August.

    Then again, Republicans aren't exactly running top-shelf challengers in all of those races, and I tend to think Hansen and Wirch especially will be tough lifting for the GOP.

    Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

    by SaoMagnifico on Fri May 20, 2011 at 05:26:13 AM PDT

    •  It could go other way (10+ / 0-)

      The Dems could get complacent, however I still think that Wirch should be fine no matter what and I doubt Democrats will be complacent knowing that control of the State Senate will still be on the line.  Although it will be weird to have the elections for the different parties (GOP vs Dem senators) on different nights

      However, it could go the other way.  The Republicans can be spending the next two months (or thereabouts) attacking each other and draining resources.  That combined with the very short turnaround for the general could be beneficial for the Dems.   I look at Holperin's district and that could turn very nasty as it looks to be a very Tea Party vs establishment primary and we know how those have been advantageous for Democrats.

      All Wisconsin, All the Time

      by glame on Fri May 20, 2011 at 06:11:15 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  That's a very good point (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ER Doc, itskevin, MichaelNY

        I hope you're right. It's certainly more than plausible, considering the cat fud already flying in the U.S. Senate race in Wisconsin...

        Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

        by SaoMagnifico on Fri May 20, 2011 at 06:14:25 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I say this is unambiguously good for Dems (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        itskevin, dc1000, deanarms, MichaelNY

        Think about it, did we want primaries or clear fields on our side vs. the 6 Goopers?  I think we all wanted clear fields.  That's what Goopers, too, want for themselves against our 3.  No one wants to have to waste money and effort on a primary, only to have to turn around and fight again later against the opposing party.  Meanwhile, the extra time gives our 3 time to raise that much more money and get that much more organized for the August generals.

        Now we get a clear shot at 6 Goopers in July and will know if we've taken back the Senate.  In basketball and football alike I always want my Cyclones to have the ball first, and as much as possible.  You have to have the ball to score!  Being on offense in politics is "having the ball."

        I think our motviation will be there to save our 3 come August no matter what happens in July.  These are ultimately scattered local races where local campaigns decide the outcome, with help from hyperfocused state parties.  So I think it's all the same for us on motivation whether our defensive races are in July or August.

        43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Fri May 20, 2011 at 08:42:26 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  The thing is (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        itskevin, MichaelNY

        If we take back the state senate, there won't be an immediate threat of more horrendous legislation from Walker. This is  good thing, but I'd be surprised if it didn't depress democratic energy at least a little.

        I'm also thoroughly unconvinced by the resource-draining argument. If you think that most of the the money in these races will come from individual candidate's fundraising, you're deluding yourself. These races are gonna be about outside spending.

        Finally, I noted it in the last thread, but it bears repeating: Primary or no, the Cowles election will be after July 12th. the GAB may try to consolidate it with the August 9th elections.

        •  Agree that complacency is a danger (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          but the real prize is in November with the Walker recall.  Hopefully elections in July and August will keep up the energy so there is little or no falloff in November.

          •  Do you mean november 2012? (0+ / 0-)

            He's not eligible for recall until next year, and even there, it's not a sure thing that the recall will be in the fall.

            •  My understanding is that (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              His recall petitioning can start in November.  This is from the Wisconsin Government Accountability Board, a state agency that remains uninfected by Walker:

              Like all other public officials, the Governor of Wisconsin is not eligible for recall until he or she has served at least one year in the current term of office.  Recall petitions cannot be circulated until early November, 2011, and cannot be offered for filing until January 3, 2012.

              The January date is his first anniversary in office.

    •  I too am unsure - good or bad? (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ER Doc, ArkDem14, itskevin, deanarms

      If the reps running against Dems are spending big $$ trying to out-teabag each other at the same time that the ones in the senate are trying to move to the middle, it could be a good thing.  We could get some press/media spillover into the other districts.  

      And we'll be able to pivot our staff and resources from playing offense to defense.

      But I can see the Forces of Evil deciding that they're going to write off 3 senate seats in the first wave, and then spend millions of dollars in August to try to take it back and do their real damage.

      It would be great to get five seats in July.  Run up the score and the Koch bros decide August isn't worth their money.

      We also need Scottys Walker and Fitzgerald to do stoopid stuff between now and then.  That has not been a problem so far.

      RECOUNT. RECALL. RESCIND. REBUILD. Now with 4 R's.

      by stcroix cheesehead on Fri May 20, 2011 at 06:26:45 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  It's also possible that the best activists (6+ / 0-)

      working hardest for the Dems could be concentrating on the takeaway targets early, then come back and work on the defensive spots later...

      -5.12, -5.23

      We are men of action; lies do not become us.

      by ER Doc on Fri May 20, 2011 at 07:31:23 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Oh, and also... (6+ / 0-)

    Steve Kagen has confirmed he is considering the Senate race. Story here.

    Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

    by SaoMagnifico on Fri May 20, 2011 at 05:27:51 AM PDT

  •  Illinois redistricting news (11+ / 0-)

    Sorry for the triple post(!) but this is huge:

    The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is reportedly pushing Illinois Democrats hard to swing as many districts as possible.

    And it sounds like not only is the map very close to finished, but it's going after Republican incumbents and hard.

    Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

    by SaoMagnifico on Fri May 20, 2011 at 06:02:07 AM PDT

    •  Good news (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Bharat, DCCyclone, itskevin

      I'm glad the DCCC is pressuring them.

      26, Male, MA-08 (hometown MI-06)

      by bumiputera on Fri May 20, 2011 at 06:12:42 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I'm confused about this part: (0+ / 0-)
      But with a little clever map-drawing, Lipinski ally Mike Madigan, the state House speaker, may extend a finger of North Side Democrat Mike Quigley’s 5th Congressional District down to Burr Ridge to include the home of Democrat John Atkinson. That would spell political trouble for Atkinson, who has raised $500,000 to run against Lipinski.

      Couldn't Atkinson be drawn into the area now represented by Judy Biggert pretty easily? If they can draw another Democratic suburban district like I've seen on some maps here, they shouldn't waste someone who's prepared to run like this. Unless it's punishment for having the gall to run against Lipinski.

      26, Male, MA-08 (hometown MI-06)

      by bumiputera on Fri May 20, 2011 at 06:22:05 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  With regard to NY-Sen, (6+ / 0-)

    there is a rumor in the Hudson Valley (sorry, no link) that Nan Hayworth (R, NY-19) is considering a challenge to Gillibrand next year.  Probably just self-promotion from her minions, but thought I'd mention it and ask if anyone else had heard this.

    One of the painful things about our time is that those who feel certainty are stupid, and those with any imagination and understanding are filled with doubt and indecision -- Bertrand Russell

    by Its the Supreme Court Stupid on Fri May 20, 2011 at 06:03:13 AM PDT

  •  Firebaggers have started their primary Obama (9+ / 0-)

    campaign!

    lolol!

    http://my.firedoglake.com/...

    There’s much progress to report in the New Progressive Alliance’s effort to leverage the 2012 election to create a unified, uncompromising voice for Progressive ideals and reform at the national level. Your recommends, shares, tweets and facebook likes of this diary will help grow the organization and increase the chances of fielding both a primary challenger to Barack Obama and a viable indie or third-party candidate in the general election.

    Should be lots of fun to watch them look for The Perfect Candidate.

    I'm gonna go eat a steak. And fuck my wife. And pray to GOD - hatemailapalooza, 052210

    by punditician on Fri May 20, 2011 at 06:05:32 AM PDT

    •  LOL indeed (9+ / 0-)

      Hilarious that Cynthia McKinney and Dennis the Menace are on their list.  Between them and the teabaggers, you wonder who is left in the asylum!

    •  I just don't understand this mindset (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      liberte, flhiii88, bythesea, dc1000

      President Obama may have a real fight on his hands for reelection despite his triangulation and bipartisanship. What makes them think that this country is ready to elect a socialist (or even social democrat) as president when it's all Obama can do to hold the middle?

      Because...the middle decides elections in this countries. The fringe doesn't. The fringe can decide primary elections, but the fact is that a solid majority of American voters will not vote for the kind of candidate the FDL crowd wants.

      That being said, I think we should start a betting pool on whether the draftee is Rep. Kucinich, Russ Feingold, Alan Grayson, Sen. Sanders, or Rep. Weiner.

      Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Fri May 20, 2011 at 06:20:30 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  My Fear: Russ Feingold (4+ / 0-)

      I think he might just have enough loose screws to primary the President.

      "I hope; therefore, I can live."
      For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

      by tietack on Fri May 20, 2011 at 06:35:11 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Absolutely clueless (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      flhiii88, DCCyclone, BeloitDem, bythesea

      "The fix is already in for Obama in the primaries, although the youth and independents who put him over the top in 2008 will not support him this time – as evidenced by their refusal to participate in the midterms."

      Because, as we know, turnout in every midterm and presidential election is exactly alike.

    •  Wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone

      A soft looney left challenger might actually help Obama by re-enforcing his place on the center.

      The danger would be say if you had a rational credible candidate like say Feingold forcing him left or someone like Grayson who is a bombthrower and might produce attacks that Republicans can seize upon and even adopt in November.

      Realistically a serious primary challenge and the money it would entail probably requires someone stepping up and organizing soon after the 2010 congressional elections.  You'd also need someone you can make a credible case that they are electable.

      That would require an issue candidate with moderate credentials seizing on a popular issue Obama might be vulnerable on.  For example Bob Kerrey declaring (which he hasn't - this is purely theoretical) his opposition to the war in Afghanistan and perhaps his support for gay marriage as an additional way to get left wing votes while retaining his appeal among independents.  Or an establishment candidate with strong labor support such as say Dick Durbin.  Or at a minimum Marcy Kaptur.

      But the firedog list  is inadvertently calculated to pick someone who is the least likely to succeed against Obama.

      •  That would be true (0+ / 0-)

        if there were some way to make it so that this challenger wouldn't get anywhere and wouldn't represent a possible divide in the party. But I don't see that happening. Anybody that has enough clout to challenge him isn't going to do it, and anybody that is dumb enough to try isn't going to make it past A17 of The New York Times.

    •  The interesting thing, to me (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      punditician

      From your excerpt is: They say they want a "voice".  Not an executive or a legislator but a voice.  Someone who'll say the right things on CNN debates and C-Span speeches and thereby improve the meme/brand/rhetoric environment, as far as they're concerned.  (I didn't read the original post, to be fair.)

      I think there's a lot of overemphasis among many activists on the rhetoric/"overton window" side of things, and I'd be curious what evidence they have that this sort of thing can lead to changes in actual policies and governance.  Take Russ Feingold.  I don't think he's a nut, as far as I know he's a good man with good values.  But you never hear too much about his legislative record, you hear about his speeches, and his lonely votes, and such.  Lonely votes can be a credit to the individual, but they don't really change policy.   I'm not sure what policies would be different if he had never been a Senator,  On a quick Wiki perusal, I do see that he was named "Legislator of the Year" by a veteran's group, and the story mentions a number of detailed, in-the-weeds efforts by him that I didn't know about: http://www.wqow.com/...

      · Helping Wounded Warriors - Senator Feingold worked to enact legislation to ensure that members of the Guard and Reserves who are injured in combat are not separated from the military before their injuries have been evaluated and they have received the care and compensation they deserve.

      · Protecting Service Members from Burn Pit Toxins – After being contacted by a Wisconsinite who served in Iraq and was exposed to potentially hazardous fumes created by the burning of mass amounts of trash on a U.S. base in Iraq, Senator Feingold pushed to prohibit the burning of dangerous substances at bases throughout Iraq and Afghanistan. Feingold also led a push for an independent investigation into the potential health implications of exposure to the fumes, the results of which are scheduled to be released in the summer of 2010.

      · Helping Veterans on Campus - Due to the tremendous success of the Post-9/11 GI Bill, the veterans population on college campuses is expected to drastically increase, including many recent combat veterans of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. With recent studies showing that one in five of these veterans may struggle with PTSD, Senator Feingold successfully pushed for the VA to provide funding to ensure student veterans have access to psychological and neurological care.

      · Ensuring Funding for Veterans Care – Senator Feingold cosponsored the Veterans Health Care Budget Reform and Transparency Act, which became law in October 2009 and will ensure that funding for the Veterans Administration (VA) is provided on a timely basis.


      Perhaps there's more along those lines.  But I think that sort of thing can be more important--can help many more real people--than being a "voice".

      25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

      by Xenocrypt on Fri May 20, 2011 at 11:20:10 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  LMAO - They put up a job post on Craigslist (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      punditician, BeloitDem

      Craiglist New York has a job posting: "Democratic Candidate for President to Replace Obama"

      Candidates for the position must be honest, either already registered as a Democrat or willing to do so in the near future, progressive, a natural US citizen, 35 years of age or older, and willing to embrace the NPA platform. A strong history as an activist is highly desirable. Details on the progressive platform will be forth-coming at a new website (newprogs.org) that will soon be unveiled. Interested candidates can, in the meantime, study the diaries at My.Firedoglake.com by Anthony Noel, especially the diaries Pick Up the Cry! and The NPA Update April.
      •  If they spent their time (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        SaoMagnifico, Goobergunch

        raising money for progressive candidates or working to field them at the national level or working to build up the state parties, they'd be doing more good for a longer period of time than they would by doing this. It's the epitome of a waste of time, but unfortunately, for all of their good intentions, I don't think they realize that.

  •  CA-11 is a tough district to predict (0+ / 0-)

    I don't think a 24 year old will have a chance, just not sure who the GOP will ultimately put into the race. McNerney is generally a disappointment to progressives that help him beat corrupt corrupt Pombo. Maybe the moderates will help keep McNerney in office in 2012.

    Born again Cynic since 2008 when the patent medicine man came to town.

    by SallyCat on Fri May 20, 2011 at 06:21:12 AM PDT

  •  Alabama (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    David Nir

    took a stab at it

  •  To digress (6+ / 0-)

    I was watching the latest episode of Glee (spoiler incoming), and when Sue said she was running for the House of Representatives, the first thing I thought was "what district?".

    Quite possibly, I spend too much time thinking about this.

    •  That's what ruins O-SPAN for me (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone, BeloitDem, HoosierD42

      (From The Onion.) I know what members of Congress represent Massachusetts, and Rep. McCullough is not one of them.

      I take this way too seriously, don't I?

      Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Fri May 20, 2011 at 06:50:44 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Also, it appears that... (3+ / 0-)

      She would be primarying Rep. Jim Jordan, unless she knows something that we don't. Could this be a hint that Jordan is indeed running for Senate?

      Or can we consider this a Schrödinger's Seat situation, with Lim just as likely to be drawn into virulently anti-gay Rep. Latta's OH-05 after redistricting? But why would Sue Sylvester want to primary Latta? What will she do if Lima ends up in Latta's district, or if Jordan commits to running for reelection to his House seat in OH-04?

      It's going to be hard to garner much Tea Party support against such a conservative incumbent either way.

      Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Fri May 20, 2011 at 06:56:39 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  She's unlikely to run in the primary. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Tiger in BlueDenver, HoosierD42

        Seeing that her reason for running includes this line about "cuts to [Jean's] disability payments", I doubt she'd be seeking the Republican nomination for either of those seats.

        Her "Sue Sylvester American Liberty Party" does sound a little like a Tea Party organization, though.

        •  Does she have enough of a brand name... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          HoosierD42

          To get her party registered even as a minor party? What are the provisions in Ohio elections law for minor-party registration? Will she have to petition her way onto the ballot?

          Also, I am curious about the possibility that her party could be hijacked by her political opponents the way the Connecticut for Lieberman Party was. Every time you put your name on a party, you paint a big target there.

          Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

          by SaoMagnifico on Fri May 20, 2011 at 07:04:38 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  The question is, who does she take votes from? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          HoosierD42

          On the one hand, her reasons for running and devotion to the mentally handicapped make it seem like she'd run a liberal campaign. On the other hand, if she got to Congress, chances are she'd join Republicans in voting against any funding for the arts.

          21, male, RI-01 (voting)/IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

          by sapelcovits on Fri May 20, 2011 at 02:06:56 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Glee is set in Lima, Ohio (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      HoosierD42

      And Lima is in OH-4.

      25, Male, CA-24, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

      by DrPhillips on Fri May 20, 2011 at 06:58:10 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  i was talking to fmr oh-4 rep. mike oxley (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        HoosierD42

        and someone around me told him that "glee" was set in his district. he had no idea and seemed surprised.

        18, D, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college next year). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. Put your age and CD here :) -.5.38, -3.23

        by jncca on Fri May 20, 2011 at 04:32:53 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Recced every comment in this thread. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sapelcovits

      Glee + Swingnuttery = awesome.

      23, Solid Liberal Democrat, DKE Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02 (home), IN-03 (birth), SC-03 (early childhood), IN-09 (college); Swingnut

      by HoosierD42 on Fri May 20, 2011 at 05:01:34 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  More hilarity from Sen. Scott Brown (10+ / 0-)

    Yes, our least favorite S. Brown in the U.S. Senate has done it again. Story here.

    Brown staffers ... "said Brown meant to say he would vote 'on' the [Ryan budget] bill, but not necessarily 'for' it."

    Oh, good try, Senator, good try!

    Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

    by SaoMagnifico on Fri May 20, 2011 at 07:31:54 AM PDT

  •  NY 26 (0+ / 0-)

    http://thehill.com/...

    GOP releases Pelosi 'puppet' ad in NY-26 race

    http://thehill.com/...

    Pelosi goes on the attack in Wisconsin at a moment when Ryan and Republicans are on the defensive about Medicare, when Democrats have a good chance of regaining control of the Wisconsin Senate in upcoming recall votes, and when Democrats have a chance of winning a House special election in New York over the issue of Medicare. That special election should not even be competitive, but Democrats might now win it.

    Senator Reid Tweet: The only budget Republicans have ends Medicare.

    by anyname on Fri May 20, 2011 at 07:37:52 AM PDT

  •  So how bad is the South Carolina district? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Odysseus

    Dave Wasserman may think it's 6-1 GOP, but Republicans came very close to losing SC-01 and SC-02 in 2008.  Are those two districts made significantly more GOP this time around?

    From looking at the proposed map, the district I'm really interested in is SC-01 (Tim Scott).  It used to be balanced by Charleston (Democratic) and Myrtle Beach (Republican).  Now it's lost Myrtle Beach to the new district, and must depend solely on Charleston's reddish suburbs to keep it in the GOP column.  But will it be enough?  As drawn, the counties in the new SC-01 are some of the ones that swung the most towards Obama in 2008.

  •  Ouch. Bad poll numbers in RI-1. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DCCyclone, dc1000, Goobergunch

    From a Fleming & Associates survey for a local station:

    The new survey of 300 registered voters in Rhode Island's 1st Congressional District shows Cicilline's 2010 opponent, former state Rep. John Loughlin, would defeat him 47 percent to 35 percent, with 17 percent undecided.

    Another Republican, former State Police Col. Brendan Doherty, would beat Cicilline 46 percent to 33 percent, with 20 percent undecided, the poll reveals.

    Those are some rough, rough numbers.

    One should no more deplore homosexuality than left-handedness. ~Towards a Quaker View of Sex, 1964 (Proud left-handed queer here!) SSP: wmlawman

    by AUBoy2007 on Fri May 20, 2011 at 07:48:43 AM PDT

    •  Their final poll nailed the margin last year (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone, dc1000, drhoosierdem

      Despite an even smaller sample. I smell a primary.

      •  If this keeps up, I hope so. (0+ / 0-)

        While there's a part of me that would hate to lose a gay rep in Congress (the more the better), I'd rather lose him to a Democrat than to a Republican!

        One should no more deplore homosexuality than left-handedness. ~Towards a Quaker View of Sex, 1964 (Proud left-handed queer here!) SSP: wmlawman

        by AUBoy2007 on Fri May 20, 2011 at 07:56:25 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Hoping for Liias in WA-01, Kaiser in MD-0? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          DCCyclone

          Rep. Cicilline's only virtues are that he is liberal and he is gay in a Congress wanting for diversity. He was a bad mayor, he lied to voters, and he probably can't win reelection. Rhode Islanders can do better, and we can certainly get better LGBT representatives in the 113th Congress.

          Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

          by SaoMagnifico on Fri May 20, 2011 at 08:04:12 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Any prospective gay challenger? (0+ / 0-)

            I imagine a primary could get quite ugly otherwise.

            •  I looked on the Victory Fund website (0+ / 0-)

              there are 3 LGBT Representatives in the Assembly; Frank Ferri, Gordon Fox, and Deb Ruggiero. There is 1 LGBT Senator in the Senate, Donna Nesselbush. I'm not sure where any of these people live, but there seems to be a lot of potential replacements.

              19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin for Senate!

              by ndrwmls10 on Fri May 20, 2011 at 09:23:04 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Frank Ferri lives in RI-02 (0+ / 0-)

                Gordon Fox lives on the East Side of Providence in RI-01, but he is symbolic of the embarrassingly corrupt RI state house. And gay people aren't happy about the way he abandoned the marriage equality bill.

                I didn't even realize Deb Ruggiero was gay! She hosts an early morning radio program around here called Amazing Women, and I vaguely recall hearing she was in the state house but not that she played for my team. She lives in RI-01, but I don't know if I see her running. I hadn't heard of Nesselbush before, but she also lives in RI-01 so could be a possibility.

                The RI state legislature has such a crappy reputation though. If we could find some rich businessman that might be nice. (For some reason I remember something about Anthony Gemma that turned me off, but can't remember what it was.)

                21, male, RI-01 (voting)/IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

                by sapelcovits on Fri May 20, 2011 at 02:14:54 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Gemma is pro-life (0+ / 0-)

                  Solid progressive in every other regard, but like Rep. Langevin, he doesn't support abortion rights.

                  Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

                  by SaoMagnifico on Fri May 20, 2011 at 07:10:56 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  ok, I think that was it, thanks (0+ / 0-)

                    but anyway, I think a progressive could win this seat as long as their name isn't Myrth York. Running a candidate who's legitimate but not associated with RI's state legislature (a la IL-03's John Atkinson or NH-02's Annie Kuster) would be cool, but chances are we get an elected official.

                    21, male, RI-01 (voting)/IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

                    by sapelcovits on Fri May 20, 2011 at 07:15:57 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

    •  What's the problem, here? (0+ / 0-)

      Does anyone have any more detail than "seniors don't like him, for some reason"?

      Independent Socialist and Vice-Chair of DKE Cranky Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

      by Bob R Bobson on Fri May 20, 2011 at 02:04:49 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Oh, it's a LOT more than that... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Bob R Bobson, drobertson

        Cicilline had a lot of problems as mayor of Providence. He had awful relations with labor, received lots of blame for the 2007 snowstorm which shut down the city, and received flak for his proposal to tax out-of-state college students (which there are quite a few of here, especially thanks to Brown and RISD). That brought him down in 2010 which is part of why his margin was so mediocre. And then after he got to Congress, lots of budget problems came to light, to the point where Cicilline's successor literally pink-slipped every teacher in the city and actually closed down some schools entirely. That was really the final nail in the coffin.

        21, male, RI-01 (voting)/IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

        by sapelcovits on Fri May 20, 2011 at 02:17:33 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Oh, that'll do it, then (0+ / 0-)

          I was aware of some of Cicilline's issues, but I wasn't aware he became even more unpopular after leaving the mayor's office. Assuming he's not primaried, can Obama/Whitehouse carry him to a win, Kanjorski-style?

          Independent Socialist and Vice-Chair of DKE Cranky Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

          by Bob R Bobson on Fri May 20, 2011 at 02:27:30 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  And in Florida redistricting, (0+ / 0-)

    {crickets}

    OK, not completely accurate, but the Republicans (and Corrine Brown) are doing everything they can to block the implementation of the Fair Districts amendments.

    I am become Man, the destroyer of worlds

    by tle on Fri May 20, 2011 at 07:58:09 AM PDT

  •  Anyone here know anything about Dina Titus as a (0+ / 0-)

    legislator?  I'm thinking of supporting her if she runs, but I'd like to have an experientially informed opinion.

    "The worst that can happen to any group of people working to unseat an existing power base is their failure to imagine the lengths to which those in power will go to keep it." Cognitive Dissonance at Zero Hedge

    by CarolinNJ on Fri May 20, 2011 at 08:46:49 AM PDT

    •  She's a very good fit (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      CarolinNJ

      For what hopefully will essentially be a suburban Clark County district, she's a perfect fit.  She's more conservative than I'd like, but outside of Las Vegas/North Las Vegas proper, that's a benefit not a drawback.  So, it depends on the map and where she runs.  If Horsford gets a North Vegas district and Titus runs for the area of Berkley's current district, we might be able to do much better, but until we see the final maps, I really don't know.

      •  Thanx, I didn't realize she's a rightward Dem. I (0+ / 0-)

        support progressives.

        "The worst that can happen to any group of people working to unseat an existing power base is their failure to imagine the lengths to which those in power will go to keep it." Cognitive Dissonance at Zero Hedge

        by CarolinNJ on Fri May 20, 2011 at 02:06:59 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  well, i'd say (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          SaoMagnifico

          dina titus is a progressive. she's not a blue dog, at least in her record. she's no barbara boxer either, but she's a good fit for her district and a good democrat i'd be glad to support.

          also, carolinNJ, remember "more conservative that _ would like" doesn't actually tell you anything about her record

          18, D, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college next year). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. Put your age and CD here :) -.5.38, -3.23

          by jncca on Fri May 20, 2011 at 04:35:58 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Barbara Boxer doesn't vote progressive. She does (0+ / 0-)

            solicit contributions progressive--which tin cup emails I delete.  I have a limited amount of money to send anywhere and I send it where I think it supports my beliefs.  For those with more resources and/or pliant values, send where you will.

            "The worst that can happen to any group of people working to unseat an existing power base is their failure to imagine the lengths to which those in power will go to keep it." Cognitive Dissonance at Zero Hedge

            by CarolinNJ on Fri May 20, 2011 at 04:46:20 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  ... (0+ / 0-)

              In what way does Boxer not vote progressive?

              •  Health care. (0+ / 0-)

                "The worst that can happen to any group of people working to unseat an existing power base is their failure to imagine the lengths to which those in power will go to keep it." Cognitive Dissonance at Zero Hedge

                by CarolinNJ on Fri May 20, 2011 at 05:45:43 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  She voted for HCR (0+ / 0-)

                  and never even really made any particular noises about trying to exact concessions for a vote. Am I missing something here?

                  •  Yes, I believe you are. (0+ / 0-)

                    "The worst that can happen to any group of people working to unseat an existing power base is their failure to imagine the lengths to which those in power will go to keep it." Cognitive Dissonance at Zero Hedge

                    by CarolinNJ on Sat May 21, 2011 at 12:39:15 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Progressive punch ranks her high -- and she barely (0+ / 0-)

                      wins her re-election campaigns in CA.

                      The full site down for me for the moment (can someone check?) -- but from the google cache, she ranks #13 in the Senate.

                      So if you have a problem, be specific

                      1) In what way is Boxer not progressive
                      1a) From your comment, it sounds like a single issue, something less important than the vote on HCR.
                      2) How does that affect her electibility in California, positively or negatively?

                      I suggest that Boxer has frequently had close elections in CA because she is as progressive as California can stand.

                      Or would you have preferred Demon Sheep Fiorina in the Senate?

                      "I hope; therefore, I can live."
                      For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

                      by tietack on Sat May 21, 2011 at 06:34:07 AM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                  •  Silly BeloitDem (3+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    BeloitDem, Goobergunch, itskevin

                    Sen. Boxer didn't demand single-payer despite facing a difficult campaign for reelection. Therefore she is a DINO and must be punished.

                    Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

                    by SaoMagnifico on Sat May 21, 2011 at 12:55:57 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

              •  Defense appropriations (0+ / 0-)

                I'm going thru her record at Project Vote Smart.  More to come.

                "The worst that can happen to any group of people working to unseat an existing power base is their failure to imagine the lengths to which those in power will go to keep it." Cognitive Dissonance at Zero Hedge

                by CarolinNJ on Fri May 20, 2011 at 05:55:54 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

              •  Patriot Act extensions. Voted No to replace the (0+ / 0-)

                death penalty with life imprisonment and No to prohibit the death penalty for minors.  Still researching.

                "The worst that can happen to any group of people working to unseat an existing power base is their failure to imagine the lengths to which those in power will go to keep it." Cognitive Dissonance at Zero Hedge

                by CarolinNJ on Fri May 20, 2011 at 05:59:59 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  The Patriot act was awful (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  Tiger in BlueDenver

                  but even the second time around, barely anyone voted against it. She's still probably at the very least in the more progressive half of the Democratic Senate Caucus.

                  •  You can argue that she's to the left of the (0+ / 0-)

                    rightmost senators, but you can't argue that she's progressive because the rightward shift has pulled the frame of the frame of reference so far to the right.  How many times have you read that a liberal in America is a conservative by Western European standards?  Barbara is not a progressive.  At her leftward best she's a centrist.

                    "The worst that can happen to any group of people working to unseat an existing power base is their failure to imagine the lengths to which those in power will go to keep it." Cognitive Dissonance at Zero Hedge

                    by CarolinNJ on Fri May 20, 2011 at 06:46:15 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  I'm not arguing (0+ / 0-)

                      that she's to the left of "the rightward senators." I'm arguing that she's to the left of at least half the democratic caucus. Her lifetime progressive punch score is 94.92, making her the 7th most liberal senator. I'm not a huge fan of sites like progressive punch in general, but it gives you a decent generalization.

                      •  OK, let's take your word for it, she's to the left (0+ / 0-)

                        of at least half, hell, make it two thirds, the Democratic caucus.  Progressive Punch is too inscrutable for judgment.  By you she' a progressive, by me a centrist.  We're talking about the same senator, we have different perspectives.  My first presidential election was Lyndon Johnson and Barry The Bomb Goldwater.  If you're significantly younger than I, you have no idea how far right the political yard markers have moved.  This has never really been a unabashedly liberal country, but there used to be such as thing as a "liberal Republican":  socially liberal, moderate fiscally.  With no inclination whatsoever to get into people's private lives.  I think the move to control and spy on and pry into goes with empire.  The further we descend into empire, the less decent and the more intrusive government will become.  It's the Reich mentality and it's a inescapable corollary of militarism.

                        A progressive sees that and votes against it.  Barbara doesn't have that distinction.

                        "The worst that can happen to any group of people working to unseat an existing power base is their failure to imagine the lengths to which those in power will go to keep it." Cognitive Dissonance at Zero Hedge

                        by CarolinNJ on Sat May 21, 2011 at 12:38:04 AM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  So you would prefer Demon Sheep Fiorina (1+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          SaoMagnifico

                          Boxer barely wins her re-elections, I suggest because she's as progressive as CA can stand.

                          As for the political movement that you're talking about, remember, CA was a solid R state just over 20 years ago....

                          It sounds like you prefer that progressives commit political suicide, instead of surviving another day to fight.

                          "I hope; therefore, I can live."
                          For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

                          by tietack on Sat May 21, 2011 at 06:37:55 AM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  Well it definitely wasn't barely. (0+ / 0-)

                            I'd say it was closer to a landslide.

                            19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin for Senate!

                            by ndrwmls10 on Sat May 21, 2011 at 09:24:54 AM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  I'm sayin I support progressives. That was the (0+ / 0-)

                            original point of departure.  

                            Plenty of policy gets discussed here.

                            "The worst that can happen to any group of people working to unseat an existing power base is their failure to imagine the lengths to which those in power will go to keep it." Cognitive Dissonance at Zero Hedge

                            by CarolinNJ on Sat May 21, 2011 at 11:08:39 AM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Please read the mission statement for DKE (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY

                            When policy is discussed, it should always be in the context of elections.

                            "I hope; therefore, I can live."
                            For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

                            by tietack on Sat May 21, 2011 at 11:31:03 AM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Please read the entire exchange--before you got in (0+ / 0-)

                            "The worst that can happen to any group of people working to unseat an existing power base is their failure to imagine the lengths to which those in power will go to keep it." Cognitive Dissonance at Zero Hedge

                            by CarolinNJ on Sat May 21, 2011 at 03:31:47 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  tietack (0+ / 0-)

                            was a long-time member of Swing State Project. I'm reading the same exchange he is, and it's clear to me, too, that your objection to Boxer is not based on electoral politics but on your personal views. I happen to share your views about domestic spying and the like, but there are many other corners of DailyKos to discuss that as an issue. This is not the place to do that.

                            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                            by MichaelNY on Sun May 22, 2011 at 11:17:07 AM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  I didn't start that discussion. BeloitDem and I (0+ / 0-)

                            were having an amiable discussion and tietack jumped in long after that ended.  Tietack sounds officious and, in any case, should stay out of exchanges that the parties involved are pursuing peacefully.  My original question was about Dina Titus.  Barbara Boxer came up as an example and BeloitDem asked why I thought Boxer not a progressive.  I replied.  Now, go ALL THE WAY back to that point and read.

                            I'm done with this.

                            "The worst that can happen to any group of people working to unseat an existing power base is their failure to imagine the lengths to which those in power will go to keep it." Cognitive Dissonance at Zero Hedge

                            by CarolinNJ on Sun May 22, 2011 at 01:22:38 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  I actually did read the entire exchange (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            SaoMagnifico

                            just for the record, if anyone cares.

                            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                            by MichaelNY on Sun May 22, 2011 at 04:04:56 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                  •  By the bye, DiFi voted for the BUSH tax cuts, one (0+ / 0-)

                    of 12 Dem senators who did so.

                    "The worst that can happen to any group of people working to unseat an existing power base is their failure to imagine the lengths to which those in power will go to keep it." Cognitive Dissonance at Zero Hedge

                    by CarolinNJ on Fri May 20, 2011 at 06:53:26 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  So you would prefer Ds have 41 seats in the Senate (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      SaoMagnifico

                      today?

                      53-12 = 41

                      Democratic priorities can't survive if everyone does a "Pickett's Charge" every time.

                      "I hope; therefore, I can live."
                      For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

                      by tietack on Sat May 21, 2011 at 06:39:48 AM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  A good analogy (0+ / 0-)

                        You have to be an extremely talented politician (or else face an utterly inept opponent) in order to consistently maintain decent approvals and win elections in districts or states where you're far to the left (or right) of the electorate. Just because Reps. Giffords and McNerney can manage it (I believe Reps. Rahall and Donnelly got lucky) doesn't mean that a fairly lackluster campaigner with a few gaffes under her belt like Sen. Boxer can get away with Feingolding and refusing to vote for anything "insufficiently pure", or Graysoning and making a loud show of demonizing political opponents and demanding radical legislation, and still win election against a money machine like Fiorina and the Republican dark-money machine.

                        Feingold and Grayson are no longer in Congress. Boxer is.

                        Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

                        by SaoMagnifico on Sat May 21, 2011 at 07:06:26 AM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                    •  I think your comments here are not appropriate for (0+ / 0-)

                      this subsite.

                      Please remember the DKE mission statement: Politics, not policy.

                      You've been on our diaries a few times now. I believe you should have seen our comments on the DKE mission statement, along with the warning at the bottom of each diary.

                      A discussion of the issues here is not appropriate, unless they're tied into electoral viability.

                      "I hope; therefore, I can live."
                      For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

                      by tietack on Sat May 21, 2011 at 06:51:03 AM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

              •  I have a theory, BTW, as to why certain office (0+ / 0-)

                holders are thought to be liberal or progressive but really aren't.  First off, the methods of assessment, which none of these orgs, that I know of, reveal, and the orgs' own agenda, which could cut across the possibility of meaningful outcomes.  On the pols side, it's possible that they can game the ratings systems and skew their results by supporting small issue votes one way and voting the other way on big issue stuff.  Lautenberg is counted a liberal but he voted the Patriot Act, repeatedly.  Likewise Menendez.  You have to pick thru their actual votes and even then, there are swaps made all the time to allow pols to posture on this or that issue for the voters back home.  Figuring out how a pol actually leans is very difficult.  And sometimes, it hardly matters:  look at DiFi's record or Jane Harman.  I've seen Harman described as considerably more conservative than her district, so how did she stay elected?  It ain't easy picking out the good guys.

                And all that's sort of icing on the cake of how many bills come up in committees each year.  In the NJ Assembly, it's thousands.  Big country, big complications.

                "The worst that can happen to any group of people working to unseat an existing power base is their failure to imagine the lengths to which those in power will go to keep it." Cognitive Dissonance at Zero Hedge

                by CarolinNJ on Fri May 20, 2011 at 06:17:21 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

        •  Sigh (0+ / 0-)

          Not the best place for this discussion.

          Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

          by SaoMagnifico on Fri May 20, 2011 at 07:15:37 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  According to the much-missed atdleft (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      CarolinNJ, tietack

      She was popular among lefty activists in the state.

      25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

      by Xenocrypt on Fri May 20, 2011 at 12:17:15 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Wisconsin Recalls (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin

    I think I'm ok with the later elections for the Dems.  

    First, these are relatively safe seats - not entirely safe but, given the energy, I'm not real apprehensive.  

    Second, the GOP'ers are wasting resources on primaries.  

    Third, staggering the votes (GOP recall one month and Dem recalls a month later) allows us another month of fundraising concentrated on defending our turf.  

    Fourth, if we kick ass in the GOP recalls (modestly optimistic we will do so), that creates momentum to do well in the Dem recalls.

    Finally, an August election keeps our activist base ginned up for the November recall effort on Walker.  July to November may be a bit too long of a lull.  We keep the recall meme alive throughout the summer into the fall.

    I think I've convinced myself that this is a good thing.

    •  They're not "relatively safe seats" (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin

      Holperin's seat is at best a tossup.

      •  I know, I know (0+ / 0-)

        these will be tough races, but winnable.  I may be naively optimistic, but I would like to think that we've got the energy, enthusiasm, and momentum with us this time around.  But that's also why I think the extra month helps so we can focus resources (money, people, GOTV) on those races after we (presumably) kick butt on the GOP recalls.  The question David asked was whether it's good or bad to have the Democratic races a month later.  I think it's good, because in many ways we'll need the month.

  •  Wi recall -GOP primaries - my take (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, deanarms, homerun

    Given David asked, here are my thoughts on the GOP primaries for the 3 (possibly) recalled Democrats.  Note after typing this up it was somehow posted at an open diary so reposting my comment here where I intended to all along

    S12 - Holperin - Simac v. Lussow: Kim Simac is the tea bag leader of the recall effort. Kim has the potential to become Wisconsin's Christine O'Donnell so the Empire Struck back and is backing the establishment choice Lincoln Co. Executive Robert Lussow.  Given the choice I have to think that Simac's foot in mouth potential makes her the superior choice of those wanting to re-elect Holperin. I also believe Simac's background in talk radio will prove to a be a gold mine for opposition research.

    S22 Wirch - Ekornass v. Steitz:  Ekornass is older than Tommy Thompson, I believe Fred is 71.  Ekornass is the former Sheriff, and current Vice-Chair of the Kenosha County Board, so his name recognition is higher than Steitz.  I know very little about attorney Jonathan Steitz other than he appears to be the establishment preference.  So i suspect the establishment views are colored by age based concerns rather than loose cannon based like concerns apparent in the S12 primary.

    S30 Hansen - Scray v. Rep. John Nygren: Nygren is the choice of the Walker machine.  Scray jumped in first, but with Walker's backing hard to see Scray mount an effective challenge to Nygren, who's wife was recently installed as Register of Deeds by Gov. Walker, a job for which she has zero qualifications.

    "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

    by walja on Fri May 20, 2011 at 09:15:31 AM PDT

  •  SC-Gov (0+ / 0-)

    Will Folks, publisher of the fitsnews.com blog on insider South Carolina politics, this morning posted a tawdry little story about the Luv Guv's husband Michael visiting a Myrtle Beach strip club in 2009. The kicker was that he didn't visit alone, but rather with his wife Nikki along for the ride, so to speak, and Mr. Larry Marchant, who confirmed the story for fitsnews.com.

    Marchant, you may recall, is one of two men that went on record during Haley's campaign against Vince Sheheen as saying they had an "inappropriate physical relationship" with the Governor. The other, of course, was Folks himself, who is no doubt working very hard on his tell-all recounting his encounter(s) with the Luv Guv.

    So Folks (@fitsnews) alluded in this story to an ongoing investigation of Michael Haley's strip-club proclivities, and tweeted a few moments ago that:

    "Chicago source: 2nd strip club allegedly  visited by @nikkihaley in 2008 is called "Chicago Food and Beverage.""

    Why was @NikkiHaley in the Windy City in 2008? According to Folks:

    "The American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC) held a conference in Chicago at the time of the 2nd alleged @nikkihaley strip club visit."

    He immediately followed that up with this one:

    "According to S.C. State Ethics filings @nikkihaley reimbursed herself $1,621.68 on 7/28/2008 for "ALEC Conference""

    For my part, I'm popping some popcorn.

    -5.38 -4.72 T. Atlas shrugged. Jesus wept.

    by trevzb on Fri May 20, 2011 at 09:15:35 AM PDT

  •  NC-Gov (3+ / 0-)

    Perdue gaining on McCrory. Terrible job approval numbers though.

    http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/...

  •  OR redistricting (0+ / 0-)

    Actually, the new map sends OR-05 even further into SW Portland than either the previous proposal or the current layout of districts.  The difference with the 5th in Portland is that this map doesn't have it going into SE Portland.

    And the reason DeFazio hasn't complained is probably becuase in every map proposed his district has become more Democratic as a result of taking in nearly all, or all of the rest of Benton County, which the 4th and 5th districts split to give both a share of strongly Democratic Corvallis (home of OSU).  Even the Republican map does this to pack Democratic votes into the 4th, giving them a better shot at the 5th and 1st districts.

    "Intolerance is something which belongs to the religions we have rejected." - J.J. Rousseau -6.38, -4.15

    by James Allen on Fri May 20, 2011 at 09:54:46 AM PDT

  •  Gillibrand's undoubtedly Safe D (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, drobertson

    My hunch is David Malpass, who's probably a little more competent than fmr. Rep. Joe DioGuardi, wins the GOP nod and goes down by a little less than 2 to 1. Betsy McCaughey's supposedly mulling over a run, but the state GOP will never, ever embrace her after her 1998 antics.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

    by andyroo312 on Fri May 20, 2011 at 10:20:18 AM PDT

    •  It'd be amusing (0+ / 0-)

      if McCaughey were to win the nomination, or get on a third party ticket and actually be visible. I suspect she could drain some money from Republicans in other states, given her past as the cheerleader for the death panel bullshit. In addition to being blown out of the water by Gillibrand, she could then help Kaine, McCaskill, and Tester.

      •  The NRSC would never dump $$$ into NY-Sen (0+ / 0-)

        They didn't give Joe DioGuardi a dime when he was polling low-single digits vs. Gillibrand. Keep in mind, Betsy McCaughey became a DEMOCRAT in 1998 when George Pataki booted her from the Lt.Gov. post. She won the endorsements of lefties like Mark Green and Ed Towns when she ran as a DEMOCRAT against Pataki in the '98 gubernatorial race. The NY GOP, despite her anti-Obamacare chatter of late, still loathes this woman.

        For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

        by andyroo312 on Fri May 20, 2011 at 10:41:55 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  WI-Sen: Bobby Jindal endorses Thompson (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    dc1000

    http://www.politico.com/...

    I get the sense the conservative rank-and-file is perhaps maneuvering to clear the field for him.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

    by andyroo312 on Fri May 20, 2011 at 10:30:09 AM PDT

  •  Fox News poll surprisingly strong for Obama (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, James Allen

    Looks like they've dumped Opinion Dynamics for a team of two partisan firms.

    Obama Job Approval: 55/41

    http://www.foxnews.com/...

  •  Washington (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, James Allen

    Obama up 11+ on the field, 52-43 job approval.

    http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/...

  •  NY-26: Newspaper's response (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    drhoosierdem, drobertson

    to the Chamber's misuse of its name was stronger than I expected, and goes directly at Corwin, too:

    The special election for New York’s 26th congressional seat has been downright dirty and after the most recent blatant effort to deceive voters — which comes at this newspaper’s expense — it is time to place the blame squarely where it belongs: On the shoulders of Republican candidate Jane Corwin and her increasingly desperate raft of supporters.

    http://tonawanda-news.com/...

  •  April $$$: DNC 12.4m, RNC 6.1m (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    BeloitDem, drhoosierdem, drobertson
    The Democratic National Committee significantly outraised its Republican counterpart in April, powered in part by millions of dollars from successful fund-raisers that featured President Obama, a D.N.C. official said.

    Democrats brought in $12.4 million in April, more than double the $6.1 million that the Republican National Committee reported raising in the same month. The D.N.C. totals will be filed with the Federal Election Commission on Friday, the D.N.C. official said.

    Democratic officials said their haul included about $7 million from the Obama Victory Fund, a joint effort by the D.N.C. and Mr. Obama’s campaign. At a Victory Fund event, the first $5,000 of a contribution goes to the presidential campaign and the rest — up to an annual cap of $30,800 — is sent to the D.N.C.

    http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/...

  •  Wis - Senate - GOP Mark Green is out (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, drhoosierdem

    Former Congressman and 2006 GOP Gubernatorial nominee Mark Geen announced today that he will not seek the Republican nomination for Herb Kohl's sat.

    "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

    by walja on Fri May 20, 2011 at 12:33:15 PM PDT

  •  Carnahan should go for 2nd MO CD (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin

    The new district won't be as red as before. More importantly the incumbent of the old district and self proclaimed Tea Party member Todd Akin is seriously thinking of running for Claire McCaskill's Senate seat. It will be a true vacant seat and likely a yet unknown and inexperienced Tea Party candidate running for the GOP.  If the House is going to be in play, this is a district the Democrats need to claim.

  •  Towns (0+ / 0-)

    I live in New York and don't know much about him. In what ways does he suck so much?

    Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

    by MichaelNY on Fri May 20, 2011 at 11:41:54 PM PDT

    •  Nailed it with... (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sapelcovits, BeloitDem, itskevin, jncca

      "I live in New York and don't know much about him."

      'Nuff said.

      Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Sat May 21, 2011 at 12:38:34 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I did think of that (0+ / 0-)

        But that's true of some other folks, too. I believe that Nydia Velasquez has been involved in some legislation but I don't remember what. There are only a few pretty visible members of the New York City delegation I can think of, and I'd start with Anthony Weiner, Charlie Rangel (but mostly in a negative sense now), Jerrold Nadler, and Carolyn Maloney (who I have some problems with but who has done very well at the polls). Who else has a claim to fame in this city?

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Sun May 22, 2011 at 11:22:15 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

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