We heard Greg Hinz weigh in on Illinois redistricting the other day in an only-somewhat-sensical column, but the Cook Political Report's Dave Wasserman has a much more reasonable take on redistricting afoot in the Land of Lincoln, complete with map done in DRA.
Based on Wasserman's descriptions (behind paywall), the three majority AA districts will be retained, as will the earmuffs of IL-04. As expected, Lipinski is protected with a machine-y district, with a new solid Joliet-Bolingbrook-Aurora Dem district for his would-be primary challenger, John Atkinson.
Bob Dold! loses some choice Republican precincts on both the North Shore and Palatine (the latter of which were a windfall from Phil Crane's pyrrhic attempt to save Mark Kirk), and IL-08 will likely get coalesced around Elgin and Schaumburg, losing Republican McHenry and exurban Lake County.
Dave also mentions that the legislature is likely to combine Rock Island and Peoria for the 17th, and try for a shoestring (or I-72/74) district between Springfield-Decatur-Bloomington-Chambana, which could be the Dem seat number 13, with DeKalb and LaSalle put into a swingy 14th for Bill Foster. (Though methinks a Rock Island-Rockford based 17th and leaving Peoria for the I-72/74 district may be the better choice.) It'd also be very difficult for the Kane County-based 14th to be constructed in a swingy way with the Dem centers of the county - Elgin and Aurora excised into the 8th and 11th, respsectively.
Dave also reports that Chambana is currently likely to remain in a Republican-leaning safe seat for Tim Johnson...which certainly confuses this Illinois Democrat. Without Champaign, any I-72/74 district becomes much tougher for a Democrat, and also removes rising star State Sen. Mike Frerichs (52nd - Champaign/Danville) from the district; the bench is rather sparse down there for Team blue. This area of the map is reported to still be in flux... Mr. Speaker, feel free to check out any of the IL redistricting diaries here for inspiration.
Illinois Senate Dems have also released their Senate redistricting plan to redraw the state's 59 SDs, with the House expected to release their plan shortly. (HDs are nested two per SD, so it will simply be a subdivision of each SD into two.) As expected, the Senate went for incumbent protection first, which is a tall order given the population loss in Chicago and the near suburbs. As a result, many districts become shifted further out into the outer suburbs. The ability for further gains is somewhat constrained by demographic shifts, and the fact that the current plan was already a Dem map determined by tiebreaker ten years ago (the Congressional plan, however, was a compromise).
However, the plan seems to be aggressive in that it creates plenty of opportunities for Senate Pres. John Cullerton to get back his 36th seat (and the veto-proof majority that comes with it) - possibilities include a minorly-tweaked northern Lake County-based 31st (held by Dem and brief IL-10 candidate Michael Bond from 2006-2010) and Rockford-based 34th, a new Aurora-Joliet area 49th, and a downstate Springfield-Decatur 48th (which may foreshadow a similar congressional district, especially when also considering the Chambana-Danville-based 52nd).
The best way to dislodge an entrenched incumbent in a district unfavorable to his/her party is to swap a sufficient number of their constituents (as we learned the hard way in Texas); rearrange enough swingy suburban territory and eventually some Republican stalwarts will lose. Wisely, in addition to drawing Republican incumbents together all over the place, the plan also seems to mine the collar counties for potential opportunities in the future - such as packing the DuPage County-based 21st with as many strongly Republican areas as possible in order to avoid giving a boon to the surrounding GOP-held districts. Personally, I think Carole Pankau (R-23rd, Bloomingdale/Addison) has some reason to be concerned, as the more Republican areas of her district are excised, and Addison Township is becoming increasingly Hispanic (and inching left, accordingly).
Given this - and the (correct) details that we've heard thus far about the Congressional map, you can count me in the "cautiously optimistic" camp for what the Congressional map has in store. And here's one more reason to be hopeful:
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is reportedly pushing Illinois Democrats hard to swing as many districts as possible.
Fingers crossed!
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