I wont even bother searching through all my comments, diaries, and front page stories speculating that she will. I'll just give you my rationale pretty straightforward, once again:
If you accept that Palin is just out to get rich off her sudden fame, Palin HAS to run. If she isn't running, she isn't news. And if she isn't news, she isn't making money. If there is a Republican nominee other than her, she isn't news. She MUST run, because this is it. It's now or never.
If you accept that she is just crazy enough to believe she ought to be president, she HAS to run NOW. If she waits until 2016, she's up against a bunch of heavyweight Republicans who will almost certainly play for an open seat. Right now, all she has to do roll over a bunch of weaklings. The economy will probably be much stronger in 2016 than it is now. Furthermore, she will be far from a fresh face in 2016.
There is another rationale: if Republicans know their field is weak and they are likely to lose anyway, they may as well go with the one they like.
I've got more.
Palin has national name recognition. This works against her in general election. But as I've said, if you accept that she is pathological about her own wealth and fame, nothing would seal that as much as being the first woman to be a major party nominee. She'll go down in defeat, for sure...but Barry Goldwater's defeat in 1964 didn't at all diminish him in the eyes of the conservative movement. Palin going down swinging spouting the conservative talking points will ensure her future income for good. She probably doesn't even care if she loses. She'll have one and a half years of global exposure.
Here's another: She lines herself up to run for John McCain's Senate seat by moving to Arizona and running for President from there. Long term, a Senate seat may just be what she needs to get established in Washington. You may believe she isn't capable of long term thinking, but I'm certain she is.
With her only major obstacle being Mitt Romney, why the hell wouldn't she run? There is no died in the wool, true blue, evangelical conservative in the race who has as much national power as Sarah Palin. Lets face it.
She's got chits to call in all over the country due to her diligent 2010 work. Nobody in he field pulled more crowds, packed more auditoriums, and delivered more on the ground votes than Palin. If you can tell me who else can, I'd love to hear it.
Now lets get down to the negatives.
You might say "even Republicans think she shouldn't be president." I scoff in your general direction. I have one answer: George W. Bush. Republicans have no problem nominating a certified moron. The Republican base will have no problem nominating her because she is one of them. Her bona-fides are unquestionable in their eyes.
You might say "Republicans want to win in 2012." Maybe they do, but I suspect they've already accept that none of their candidates can unseat a sitting President who will have a billion dollars and is the most capable presidential campaigner we've seen in a generation. Obama may not be a A+ president, but nobody doubts that he is absolutely superb on the hustings. They know it too. That is why all of the serious top-tier guys took a pass. Going up against Obama is folly, which is exactly why it fits Palin to a T. As the President himself once said, "If I beat Bill and Hillary Clinton, I'm the baddest guy out there." It's true.
What's her path to the nomination? Simple. Same as 2007-2008 Barack Obama: Go to Iowa, plant the flag.
Use small-donor fundraising to set the media narrative of a grass-roots uprising being afoot. Cast Romney as the Washington establishment. Nobody in this race will have as much small donor support as Palin. (Not even the President...but I suspect that once Palin starts looking like the nominee, those millions of Obama small donors will return with robust vigor!)
Come out of Iowa victorious and then fight like hell in New Hampshire where the Republican establishment is almost certain to fight back hard. Lose. Then go beat the shit out of them in South Carolina. After that, watch the Republican establishment begin to accept the inevitable...just as the Democratic establishment did with Obama. You'll then hear stories about Palin meeting with World Economic Forum types as the oligarchs will being her to heel, as they do every presidential candidate.
The question every candidate has to ask themselves is "can I win?" I suspect Palin doesn't care one way or the other, but the answer is yes....if something really really extraordinary happens. As long as your on a major party ballot, you can win. You can rest assured that President Obama will order his staff to take her fucking seriously and treat her like a real candidate. He isn't stupid enough to just sit on laurels Thomas Dewey style. If she as a 1% chance of victory, the White House is going to work to reduce that to .01% and rightly so.
To wrap up, you and me should take her seriously and not as a joke. I say again that if she runs, she will be the Republican nominee and will probably run a better campaign than anyone expects. I don't see anyone on the GOP side who can stop her if she wants the nomination, including Rove and the establishment.