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IL new districts population change by raw numbers
IL new districts population change by percentage
(click to enlarge)

Did you know Illinois has 451,554 census blocks? Well, SSP Labs (now a division of Daily Kos Elections) analyzed all of them, spitting out the distribution analysis of the new Illinois districts. And, as the title of this post implies, there are some not-necessarily-obvious subtleties of that map that make it so quite the piece of work.

First, the eight incumbent Dems clearly got their seats protected; each retains the vast majority of their constituents (between 69% for Luis Gutierrez to 93.49% for Jerry Costello), with some minor reshuffling. The southward reach of both the new 1st and 2nd are obvious, with significant percentages from the old 11th to the south.

Far more exciting, however, is what this map does to the 11 current Republican incumbents. The Dems were diabolical with the General Assembly map (which forced no less than 1/3 of the GOP Senate caucus into fratricidal districts)... but that was only a sign of things to come.

Starting in Chicagoland, the Cook County (read: Democratic) parts of Peter Roskam's old 6th are farmed into the new 8th, while Joe Walsh's old 8th is split into FOUR districts...with no more than 33% of his current constituents moved into the same district. Bob Dold! keeps 61% of his current constituents, but given the thin ice he was on, the 39% new (including 7% from a strongly Democratic section of the old 9th) is likely more than enough to send him packing.

The old 14th is split among 6 new districts, though a substantial portion is retained for the new 14th. Strategically, Randy Hultgren should run here, as the new 6th is really primed for a GOP primary battle royale: Roskam and Hultgren live in the district, while Judy Biggert lives nearby (and may not want to run in the solidly Dem new 11th). Oh, and they all represent between 21% and 25% of the new 6th... but no more.

Moving a little further south, the Dems clearly chose to target Adam Kinzinger and not Aaron Schock, dicing Kinzinger's district among no fewer than EIGHT new distrcts. The largest part of the old 11th is in the new 16th (perhaps allowing us better to understand why the rumors of Kinzinger running in the new 16th). AK47 (yes, our nickname for the Congressman) still has a numerical disadvantage against current IL-16 incumbent Don Manzullo though, 44% to 31%.

Bobby Schilling gets a cleaner (and more Democratic) district, though he keeps 46% of his constituents. Again, it's the new ones that could hurt him, especially with a 70% Obama section of Rockford and Winnebago County (taken from the old 16th). The cost of drawing these other Republicans out is, of course, keeping Aaron Schock safe, who retains 61% of his constituents. He wouldn't be particularly vulnerable to a primary challenge either, as he gains 12% of the old 15th repped by Tim Johnson and 16% of Schilling's old 17th.

Speaking of Tim Johnson... I think he's left without too many good options: the old 15th is split four ways, with 46% retained for the new 15th. That'd be all well and good, except 53% of the new 15th comes from John Shimkus' old 19th. Johnson could run in the new swingy 13th, but has only represented 27% of it before. Even there, Shimkus' 29% has him beat. The new 13th is not particularly Dem leaning, but is still brilliant nonetheless in that no current GOPer represents more than 30% of it. This point is hard to understate: this district nominally leans Dem, and was likely specifically constructed to minimize incumbency effects that would benefit the Republicans — which of course, increases the probability that the nominal Dem-leaning nature of the district will shine through.

With so much in the air, we know this will be a fun game of GOPer musical chairs that we'll get to observe. But when the music stops, more than a few Republican incumbents will likely find their seats taken — not by each other, but by Democrats.

Note: SSP Labs is continuing to work on Illinois. Stay tuned for continuing coverage....

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Comment Preferences

  •  War of the maps begins (9+ / 0-)

    Now we see what the other democratic-controlled states do, I'm quite curious to see what MD does, as it's been speculated on this site a lot.

    19-M, Fierce Democrat; Borderline socialist. MD-8 (Home), MD-5 (School)

    by JZTess on Sun May 29, 2011 at 11:29:22 AM PDT

    •  Word in Maryland is a 7-1 map (8+ / 0-)

      They would like to erase Andy Harris.  That would leave Bartlett the lone GOPer.

      I know some SSPers have drawn 8-0 MD maps, but I don't think they're going to do that.  They'll let the Repubs have the western panhandle.

      43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Sun May 29, 2011 at 01:26:21 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Don't know why they don't just go 8-0 (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCCyclone, gabjoh, MichaelNY, Odysseus

        It honestly isn't that difficult.

        Meh. Maybe in another ten years.

        "Every daring attempt to make a great change in existing conditions, every lofty vision of new possibilities for the human race, has been labeled Utopian."

        by xcave on Sun May 29, 2011 at 02:20:38 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Could be scared of blowback (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          xcave, gabjoh, MichaelNY

          Maryland is a weird state where geographically, probably the majority of land consists of GOP counties.  It's just that such an overwhelming majority live in a few places.  Even back in 1994, Democrat Parris Glendening eeked out a Gov win by winning only the City of Baltimore and Montgomery and PG Counties.  He lost literally all other jurisdictions, and still won.

          That imbalance has only grown.

          But it makes for a situation where you have a lot of counties on both the west and east sides of the state that go unrepresented in an 8-0 map.  A lot of those GOP areas have Democratic state legislators, they're not GOP-dominated at that level.  So those particular Dems might push back against an 8-0 map, fearing they would suffer blowback in their own reelections.

          43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Sun May 29, 2011 at 05:25:18 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  C'mon right angle (0+ / 0-)

        I just don't think anything good will come of trying to force the Eastern Shore to be in a Democratic district. Plus I have friends in Hagerstown and rural Carroll County whom I'd like to rescue from the clutches of Republican representation. And also I'd much rather have a seventh Democratic congressperson from Montgomery County than get the fairly useless Frank Kratovil back.

        Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

        by SaoMagnifico on Sun May 29, 2011 at 06:13:42 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Would you rather have Kratovil or Harris (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, Odysseus

          plus, if Kratovil is given a more democratic district, he'll have room to move to the left and a potential credible threat of primary if he doesn't.

          •  I'd much rather have Kratovil, of course (0+ / 0-)

            I just really, really don't think the Eastern Shore is fertile ground even for Kratovil - who barely won in 2008, lost badly last year, and is probably not really tight with legislators or popular with voters in Baltimore, Prince George's, and Montgomery counties, where MD-01 would need to pick up a lot of residents to even be competitive, let alone securely Democratic - and if there's going to be a 7-1, I would rather have all of those seven be reliable Democrats from west of Chesapeake Bay than have six reliable Democrats plus one Blue Dog who had one of the most conservative voting records of all Democrats in the 111th Congress.

            I'd accept even Rep. Harris in exchange for putting someone like Anne Kaiser in the House. And I think if a map like the one I proposed a few weeks ago becomes law, Harris is going to have a hell of a time winning the primary in MD-01 without most of his home turf in exurban Baltimore and Harford counties (including his hometown) coming along for the ride. That's a win-win-win in my book, Kratovil be damned.

            Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

            by SaoMagnifico on Sun May 29, 2011 at 09:00:07 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Actually (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              wwmiv, MichaelNY, enilno

              The only reason Kratovil barely won in 2008 was because the Baltimore suburban counties went heavily for Harris; Kratovil won every county on the Eastern Shore that year. And in 2010, he lost the Baltimore suburban counties by 28,000 votes, while he only lost the Eastern Shore by 7,000 votes (more total votes being cast in the latter). Add some heavily-Dem territory to the Eastern Shore and Kratovil would have the district pretty much locked up.

              •  Yes and the other thing is that (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:

                the Eastern Shore district has always included precincts west of the shore. In the 1990s it included parts of Balimore County, Anne Arundel County, and even parts of Baltimore City. In the 1980s some of it even went across to include southern MD.

      •  They may want to have one safe vote (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        sink for the GOP to make sure that the other seven districts can't be won. The other factor is that Edwards and Cummings may not want to take in heavily white and Republican precincts within the Baltimore/Washington exurbs even if their impact is minimal on their districts.

        •  Van Hollen and Hoyer too! (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          It's not always the AA Reps. that are "selfish".

          19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin for Senate!

          by ndrwmls10 on Mon May 30, 2011 at 12:38:07 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  CVH and Hoyer are also selfish, though (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:

            I think I've read that CVH would be willing to represent Hagerstown and parts of Frederick County.

            But a lot of the focus falls on the AA representatives because they have 80-90% Democratic districts that could easily afford to absorb dark red precincts and remain safe to them.

      •  GOP survivor in Maryland delegation (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        If the choice is between letting Harris or Roscoe Bartlet escape, no question it would be better to see the last of Harris.  Bartlett is an old mossback from before the extremist wing took over his party, and though he is conservative he can be pushed too far.  My notes say during the last of the Bush administration he bucked the party on torture and on some elements of the Patriot Act.
         Besides, he's ancient (born 1926); Nature will put a limit on how many further terms he might serve.  I seem to remember rumors that he was contemplating retirement in the 2006 cycle, though that's not in my notes (and obviously, he changed his mind).  

        A Republican is a person who says we need to rebuild Iraq but not New Orleans. - Temple Stark

        by Christopher Walker on Tue May 31, 2011 at 03:52:49 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Passed? (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, davybaby, supercereal

    The Illinois Legislature was supposed to pass this plan today, any word on the progress?

  •  Excellent work, Jeff. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    drobertson, MichaelNY

    Glad to see that the new 13th is better than it appears at first glance.

    Editor, Daily Kos Elections

    by James L on Sun May 29, 2011 at 11:37:20 AM PDT

    •  The 13th (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      Is a piece of work.  It cuts parts from Springfield, Bloomington/Normal, and Champaign-Urbana in order to grab Democratic votes and balance out the rural stretches.  Oh, and why isn't that northeast portion of Urbana included?  It's because Rep. Johnson lives there.  Shunt him off into the rump 15th, so the biggest city he reps is now Danville.

  •  Biggart is a goner (6+ / 0-)

    I see Judy Biggart retiring rather than fighting a primary where she would be cast as the representative of the Socialist, wobbly, wing of the GOP.  GOP women don't primary well when attacked from the right.

    "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

    by walja on Sun May 29, 2011 at 12:04:52 PM PDT

  •  Excellent, thanks for this (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    I'm personally wondering about the legislative maps. Has anyone looked at them to see if 2/3 majorities are in the cards?

    Ok, so I read the polls.

    by andgarden on Sun May 29, 2011 at 12:05:41 PM PDT

    •  A veto-proof majority is three-fifths. (6+ / 0-)

      Senate, absolutely.  Cullerton has 35 (of 59), leaving him one short.  All incumbent Dems keep safe districts; the 36th seat could be the new Lake County 31st (which was held by a Dem 2006-2010) and was tweaked to be more Dem friendly, the new 49th around Plainfield between Aurora and Joliet, and the new Springfield-Decatur district that looks a lot like 1/3 of the new Congressional 13th.

      House is a bit harder, since we need 71 (of 118), a pickup of 7.  Gerrymandering the Senate is a bit easier, since we can make lots of tendril Chicago-suburb districts. Not too many of these were split lengthwise, so a Senate districts are composed of one strongly Dem HD and a lean R HD, creating a solid D Senate district but a 1-1 HD split.  We'd have to do very well in the suburbs to get to 71, and my belief is that many suburban R's who vote Dem for President/Congress will continue to vote R for state legislature if only to keep Madigan reined in somewhat.

      •  Interesting that IL has a lower threshold (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        It's a shame that we can't lock in exactly what we need with control of the map. It would be insurance against a future GOP governor. I guess political realities have a tendency to override mathematical possibilities.

        Ok, so I read the polls.

        by andgarden on Sun May 29, 2011 at 12:17:14 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I have often wondered about this... (6+ / 0-)

        On two levels: one I don't entirely know whether Madigan actually wants to get a 3-5th majority - in the four years I have so far lived in Illinois I have not seen him actively push for it whereas the Senate Senate Democrats gained this back in 2008.

        I suspect, but could be wrong, that not having a 3/5 majority allows Madigan to pour cold water on any progressive item that either the State Senate or the governor wants.  It took two freaking years, for example, before he would even consider allowing for a much-needed income tax increase to come to vote in the State House.  And when it came, it came via lame duck session, and it was a simple 3% to 5% increase, without any of the more ameliorative aspects of the governor's proposal like increased personal exemptions before the tax kicked in.

        And, second, I think Jeff is basically right.  Madigan has been around for so long (well forever... leader of the State House Democrats since 1982 and speaker for all of two years in that time period), and is such a throwback to the old Daley machine, that suburban residents just reflexively vote GOP on the state level as a result.  Interestingly, that allergy for the father doesn't anymore seem to affect the daughter.  Back in 2002, she barely won her first election as Attorney General, but she is perhaps now our most popular state-wide elected figure.

  •  I love this (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DCCyclone, MichaelNY

    Thanks for doing the work, Jeff.

  •  Awesome! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    With so many blue states unilaterally disarming on redistricting, it's nice to see one that's going for the jugular.

  •  When will they pass it? (0+ / 0-)

    Rumor was they would vote on Sunday, but here we are and they haven't. Time is running short (June 1 deadline). Are we positive they'll get this through?

    The Republican Party is neither pro-republic nor pro-party. Discuss!

    by Nathaniel Ament Stone on Sun May 29, 2011 at 03:55:19 PM PDT

  •  Great work (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, ChadmanFL

    But Hultgren lives in the 14th, not the 6th. His house is right near the border.

    21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college) Kyoto-01 (soon), hopeless Swingnut

    by sapelcovits on Sun May 29, 2011 at 05:25:56 PM PDT

    •  Does he? I wasn't sure. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ChadmanFL, MichaelNY

      He's listed on the House Roll as "R-Winfield", which refers to either Winfield Township or the village of Winfield (which split between Winfield and Milton Twps.)

      I think he's using the village (who other than swingnuts know about civil townships anyway?), which is fully within the 6th.  Of course, he could live in an unincorporated area near the incorporated place of Winfield...

      •  He lives in a cul-de-sac (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        near the intersection of Mack and S Winfield Roads. The main street he lives off of is the boundary between IL-06 and IL-14, and he lives on the IL-14 side of it.

        21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college) Kyoto-01 (soon), hopeless Swingnut

        by sapelcovits on Mon May 30, 2011 at 09:38:56 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  BAD (0+ / 0-)

          This might be pubic record, but I really think we shouldn't be specifically sharing the personal addresses of members of Congress.

          I'm contemplating a 0 rating for this comment, even though I don't really want to.

          You might as an administrator to delete it.

          Ok, so I read the polls.

          by andgarden on Mon May 30, 2011 at 09:42:11 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Got it, thanks. (0+ / 0-)

          Dare I ask how you learned this?

          •  Illinois Board of Elections (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:

            candidate filing address. Like I said, public record and only requires a computer and 5 minutes to find out.

            21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college) Kyoto-01 (soon), hopeless Swingnut

            by sapelcovits on Mon May 30, 2011 at 10:03:00 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  How do people feel about (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Odysseus, MichaelNY

              The combination of the requirement to put in an address to make a campaign contribution, and the fact that technology like this:
              exists today, where you can easily find people who made potentially-unpopular donations in a given area?  Do you think there's a chilling effect, or is it the public's right to know?  And, I think the most interesting question is--if there was this technology when the rules were being written, would they have been written the same way?

              25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

              by Xenocrypt on Mon May 30, 2011 at 10:20:51 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  I think most judges are leaning towards (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:

                public's right to know. I remember that the Prop 8 donors were made public, leading to negative reactions against them (for instance, a boycott of the San Diego Hyatt Hotel). I also remember there was a lawsuit related to releasing the names of people who forced Washington's domestic partner expansion to go to a vote, but I don't remember how that one turned out. There may have also been something similar with Maine's Question 1 (the gay marriage repeal).

                21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college) Kyoto-01 (soon), hopeless Swingnut

                by sapelcovits on Mon May 30, 2011 at 10:31:29 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

  •  IL-13 results (0+ / 0-)

    Might be a little bit off because of precinct splitting and Bond County (100 voters) not having precinct results...

    After that said...
    Obama 54%
    McCain 44%

    Kirk 55.44%
    Giannoulias 37.6%

    Brady 56.15%
    Quinn 36.81%

    •  Seems about right... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      one big big issue using 2010 numbers is how much this was a "the rest of the state vs. Chicago" race.  Kerry 2004 numbers, despite their datedness, are really the only good benchmark to go by for anything more than 30 miles outside of Chicago proper.

      •  I think the Treasurer's race... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        can be taken as a worst-case, especially south of I-70, where Robin Kelly was simply a generic Democrat that didn't have a Chicagoland taint to her (despite being Giannoulias' aide).

        Looking furthest downstate, for example, Kelly outpolled both Giannoulias and Quinn by more than 3% in the new 15th.

        2010 was such a terrible year for the statewide ticket....Pat Quinn only got 55.5% in Quigley's new district, and 56% in Schakowsky's; Giannoulias got 55% and 54%, respectively. Alexi also lost the new 3rd.

        I have a lot of faith in the new 10th though - it gave even voted for Quinn! (I'll have full numbers tomorrow).

        Incidentally, I have a theory that Dan Rutherford is going to run for Governor in 2014, as evidenced by his yes vote being the only GOP yes on civil unions. Normally, I'd say that a state Senator from Chenoa would have no reason to vote yes, except to burnish his socially moderate credentials for the burbs in four years.

        •  Is Lisa Madigan going to run in 2014? (0+ / 0-)

          19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin for Senate!

          by ndrwmls10 on Sun May 29, 2011 at 08:54:18 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  It did? (0+ / 0-)

          I looked at it yesterday and I got Brady 47%-Quinn 45%. There were some split precincts (are you taking those into account? You should since you know Illinois more than I do) and some weird things in Wheeling where some precincts didn't seem to exist... Maybe you took these into account...

          Did you get different numbers for the 13th?

          •  throughout Cook County Suburban... (0+ / 0-)

            precincts got merged between 2008 and 2010.  Dave's Redistricting App only contains 2008 precincts.  But there is a useful maps page on the Cook County Suburban Elections website and, where it mattered, I was able to figure out how to get the data to work.

          •  Joe's right... (0+ / 0-)

            Suburban Cook merged a substantial number of precincts in Fall 2009, with precinct numbers bouncing all over a given township.

            I created a GIS shapefile with the Cook County Clerk's site and used that to map results.

            •  And that's why our results differed! (0+ / 0-)

              How about IL-13? Much different?

              I'm sure my IL-12 is correct because there weren't any split precincts.

              •  My IL-12 is: (0+ / 0-)

                54.7 Obama - 43.6 McCain
                43.9 Quinn - 49.7 Brady
                42.8 Alexi - 51.0 Kirk
                45.1 Kelly - 49.5 Rutherford

                IL-12 splits Madison County precinct Godfrey 2 with IL-13.

                Per the census, 22 live in IL-12 and the remaining 836 in IL-13. I allocate votes from split precincts proportionally by the number of residents per the Census; the effect of this here is de minimis.

                IL-13, I have:

                54.2 Obama - 44.0 McCain

                Excluding Bond County, I also have:

                36.8 Quinn - 56.1 Brady
                37.6 Alexi - 55.4 Kirk
                37.8 Kelly - 56.5 Rutherford

                Incidentally, if anyone has 2010 data for Bond County, the City of Peoria, Stark County, or Tazewell County, please drop me a line.  Thanks!

                •  Illinois amazes me at how horrible it is to find (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:



                  is for City of Peoria. There were probably only 100 voters in the IL-13 portion of Bond County in 2010...

                  •  That's Peoria County (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:

           distinguished from the city of Peoria. For some reason bizarre reason, IL designates separate elections authorities for some cities - for example, though I live in Cook County, I'm registered to vote with the Chicago Board of Elections, as opposed to the Cook County Clerk.

                    If you look at Kendall County's election results, for example, you'll see a total, with an additional line "AEC", for the Aurora Election Commission.

                    Unfortunately, this just means more elections results pages to comb through...

                    Peoria City's is terrible, and has no results period for 2010, let alone precinct-level.

                •  You might try private-messaging roguemapper (0+ / 0-)

                  He contacted a lot of local clerks for election data recently. I don't know if he got 2010 data or not.

                  30, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.

                  by borodino21 on Mon May 30, 2011 at 11:32:24 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                •  The good thing is... (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:

                  since they barely altered the IL-12, and Kerry won the old version by about 51-48, Kerry still likely won the new version by a slight bit less (as Jefferson County voted for Bush and McCain).  Southern Illinois is where you see the most stability between 2004 and 2008; Obama improved in almost every county in Illinois but here I think you start to see the "Appalachian effect" interact with "the home son effect."  

                  Costello should still breeze by, regardless, even if Shimkus decides to challenge him in the 12th rather than try for the 13th.  And, indeed, if Shimkus tries for the 13th, I think if somebody like State Sen. Mike Frielichs runs, we stand a good shot of defeating Shimkus.  

                  Still, I would have opted to beef up the IL-12 by going north, and draw the IL-13 north as well (as well as beef it up too) to include Peoria.  And, if that was not an option because of a desire to draw a "neat" map, I would have improved Costello's district at the very least by grabbing Centralia in next-door Marion County.

                  •  It's pretty obvious to me at this point (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:

                    that you should have been the one to draw the map (only half-kidding).

                    21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college) Kyoto-01 (soon), hopeless Swingnut

                    by sapelcovits on Mon May 30, 2011 at 11:55:32 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  well thank you... (0+ / 0-)

                      Likewise, I am impressed with your first attempts at a reasonable map for my former home state of New York.  I wonder whether people from Chautauqua and Cattaraugus consider themselves Western New Yorkers or Southern Tierers?  Or what the courts might do with that?  Because then I can see an Orleans, Genesee, Niagara, and northern Erie seat being created (essentially the old Lafalce seat), with most of Monroe being consolidated for Slaughter and Higgins taking southern Erie, Chautauqua, and Cattaraugus.

      •  Also, Brady represents part of 13 (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        in the state Senate, so it's not a favorable measure.

  •  Maybe the biggest GOP mistake in 2010 was Brady (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    BeloitDem, MichaelNY, Odysseus

    Granted he did win on a small plurality. But for all the hooplah over Christine O'Donnell, she probably only stopped four years of a very moderate Republican Senator. Switch 100 votes in the Illinois GOP gubernatorial primary and several GOP House seats are saved for a decade. Possibly extending into the next decade, if the ability to gerrymander the assembly gives a veto proof majority to a GOP governor come the next redistricting.

    •  huh? (0+ / 0-)

      how would the Republicans have the ability to gerrymander the assembly, and how would they even get near a veto proof majority in a D+8 state?

      21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college) Kyoto-01 (soon), hopeless Swingnut

      by sapelcovits on Sun May 29, 2011 at 08:37:40 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Clarifying (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, Odysseus

        I am pretty sure Nichlemn meant that, if Quinn had not won, the Illinois state legislature would not have been able to gerrymander the legislative map, and hence would certainly not be able to create enough Democratic seats to be able to override a potential GOP governor's veto in 2021. Hence the loss of the Illinois gubernatorial election may have meant that Democrats could create the maps for 20 years, and hence lock the GOP out a lot of seats for a very long time.

        This may not be entirely accurate if the Democrats did not (by choice or inability) lock in 3/5 of the assembly.

      •  here's how... (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        JGibson, MichaelNY, David Jarman, Odysseus

        This scenario occurred in 1991 when you had Democratic house and state senate, with a GOP governor.

        1) State House and Senate pass a Democratic gerrymander of the state legislature; GOP governor vetoes it.  

        2) Under the Illinois 1970 constitution, if there is no map being passed before July 1 of the year ending in 01, it goes to a 8-member bipartisan commission.  If that committee is deadlocked by September 1, you pick a tiebreaker out of a hat.  Every time there has been split control since 1970, either party has chosen to play chicken, hoping for winner-take-all at the end of the process with the drawing a name out of a hat part of the process.  It is very screwed up, but it is in the IL 1970 constitution.  The constitutional convention put it in there to try to encourage state lawmakers to not get too carried away with gerrymandering - along with the reasonable compactness language - but it hasn't worked out that way at all.

    •  Poor Kirk Dillard (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      I really was rooting for him. Glad he lost now, in retrospect...

      Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Sun May 29, 2011 at 09:02:41 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  yeah me too... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Odysseus, MichaelNY

        otherwise Governor Quinn would have been a goner last fall.  Still... the fact that it was so close and I was dreading for most of the fall Brady's win, we are so lucky that tens of thousands of swing voters in the burbs had a second thought about how they were going to vote, once they were in the voting booth.

  •  And the State House passes the congressional map!! (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, ndrwmls10, MichaelNY, askew

    On a 63-54 party line vote... apparently also with a minor tweak that puts Shimkus in the 15th and Johnson in the 13th.  At least that is what Capital Fax is reporting....

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