With the latest PPP polling out today, we now have three very different polling results (PPP, SurveyUSA, Star Tribune) on the question of whether Minnesotans will vote to place a consitutional amendment into their constitution defining marriage as solely between a man and a woman.
The Star Tribune polled a couple of weeks ago, before a final vote was taken in the Minnesota legislature to put the amendment on the ballot:
"Please tell me if you would favor or oppose amending the Minnesota constitution to ban same-sex marriage."
Favor: 39%
Oppose: 55%
LGBT advocates everywhere breathed a big sigh of relief.
SurveyUSA did some polling after the legislature voted:
"If an amendment to the Minnesota Constitution were on the ballot, that defines marriage as between one man and one woman, would you vote FOR the amendment? Against the amendment? Or not vote on the measure?"
Vote for amendment: 51%
Vote against amendment: 40%
Not vote: 8%
LGBT advocates everywhere went into a panic. Once again, for the 32nd time, it looked like voters would vote to bar LGBT couples from having rights.
Then today, PPP came out with a third poll on the amendment question, using the exact text of the ballot initiative:
"Should the Minnesota Constitution be amended to provide that only a union of one man and one woman shall be valid or recognized as a marriage in Minnesota?"
Yes (for amendment): 46%
No (against amendment): 47%
Zounds. Who knows what to think now?
Three differently worded questions, three different answers beyond the margins of error!
- The Star Tribune poll uses negative language: 'to ban same-sex marriage' and therefore (?) elicits a negative response.
- The SurveyUSA poll asks a different question: instead of a negative, banning same-sex marriage, it asks a positive, whether marriage should be defined as between a man and a woman -- but leaving out what seems to be a crucial word: 'only'.
- The PPP poll is the only one of the three which asks the question exactly as it will appear on the ballot.
What's the bottom line? If we average the three results, we get
Oppose amendment: 47.33%
Favor amendment: 45.33%
which is very close to the PPP result, the one reflecting exactly the language of the ballot proposition.
Given the totality of the polling results, and the edge that blank votes give opponents of the amendment (1) -- especially if the SurveyUSA poll is any indicator of how many will not vote, it looks like Minnesota voters may well end up being the first in the nation to reject a constitutional amendment restricting the right of LGBT citizens to marry.
But it looks like it will be quite the battle. And one neither side can afford to lose.
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(1) Note: The process of passing a constitutional amendment in Minnesota has one very important quirk to it: the amendment must pass with a majority of all those who cast a ballot in the election, not just a majority of those who vote on the amendment question itself. That means that leaving the question blank counts exactly as if the person voted 'No'. (In 2008, Approminately 2.5% of Californian's left the ballot question for Proposition 8 blank.)