I have drawn a Michigan I believe reflects the state compactly, demographically, and politically. This map is 6D-4R-4T. If you get rid of toss-ups, it is 8D-6R, very fair for a Lean Dem state.
1st: Dan Benishek-R, R+3, purple
Dan Benishek's district changes slightly in shape, coming down the east side of the mitten to a little bit greater extent. It basically swaps Antrim, Charlevoix, and rural Bay for Roscommon, Clare, and Midland.
Benishek may be a very anonymous freshman, but this district should be more like R+6 by the end of the decade, if not more, as labor Dems die off. He should be safe; I'd say Lean R for 2012 and probably Likely R after.
2nd: Bill Huizenga-R, R+2, green
Huizenga has a little bit more to worry about. We know he can campaign; he won a contested primary, but now he has to try and beat a Democrat. Luckily for him, there is little bench in this historically Republican district. Losing many of the Grand Rapids suburbs hurts him here, but his district is now just Muskegon + Rural Areas.
3rd: Justin Amash-R, R+7, tan
Amash and his present-voting self no longer has to worry, except possibly in a primary. Holland plus the Grand Rapids area is quite safe for him, and he's the biggest gainer in this map.
4th: Dave Camp-R, R+5, blue
Rural farm country in Michigan continues to have its own representative in Dave Camp. The district is slightly ugly in order to avoid cities, but it remains safe for Camp and any Republicans to follow.
5th: Dale Kildee-D, D+4, tree bark brown
This one goes for compactness over COI, with Flint combined with exurban Detroit. Kildee remains safe as Genesee Co. is the bulk of the population.
6th: Fred Upton-R, D+2, teal
This district avoids the Grand Rapids metro area, making it one point more Democratic. Grand Rapids, Kalamazoo, and Benton Harbor combine to form a strong Democratic base to challenge the aging Upton, who has also been flip-flopping all over the place recently. I think it's ours when he retires.
7th: Open (Jim Barcia-D vs. St. Sen Roger Kahn-R), R+1, light brown
The old Barcia district is recreated. In fact, with no incumbent representative, he'd have a pretty good chance of winning this one, as he was just term-limited (ugh, hate those things) out of the state legislature. Bay City and Saginaw counter-balance the thumb pretty well.
8th: Mike Rogers-R, D+2, flesh
Rogers losing some of the Detroit exurbs hurts him, moving this from R+0 to D+2. Despite not being anything close to moderate, he has managed to not be challenged. That would probably change here. I'd rate this a Toss Up, since he's a popular incumbent and has some seniority.
9th: John Dingell-D, D+7, light blue
Dingell doesn't live here, but he's represented much of the area. This district leaves Wayne Co. entirely, picking up some rural territory, combining it with Monroe and Washtenaw, taking in Tim Walberg's home (as if he could win this), and ending up with a safe Dem district.
10th: Candice Miller-R vs. Gary Peters-D, R+1, pink
This would be a marquee matchup. I guess Miller could end up running for Senate instead in this scenario. Both are popular, party-line but not extreme voices. Peters doesn't quite live here, but he'd probably take this over primarying Sandy Levin.
11th: Open (St Sen Glenn Anderson)-D, D+5, green
West and South Wayne County gets its own district, a Likely Dem seat for St Sen Glenn Anderson. From a COI perspective, there is nothing better than a district like this, and it's great from compactness too.
12th: Sandy Levin-D, D+5, orange
As heavily Black areas must be added to the VRA districts, Levin's district cointains almost none of his old territory. He's probably safe, but Peters could run here instead if he opts to retire. This district has the biggest PVI shift of any district on the map, tied with the 5th.
13th: Hansen Clarke-D, D+26, peach
Things are just peachy for Hansen Clarke. His district adds suburbs Eastpointe, St. Clair Shores, Warren, Highland Park, and Hamtranck, but it's not like he'd ever be vulnerable.
14th: John Conyers-D, D+29, purple
The other VRA district extends northward into Southfield and Oak Park. Conyers is safe.
Racial stats for VRA (B/W/H)
13th: 38/52/6
14th: 41/52/3
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