Public Policy Polling (PDF) (5/27-30, Iowa voters,
4/15-17 (PDF) in parens,
1/7-9 (PDF) in brackets):
Barack Obama (D): 49 (45) [47]
Mitt Romney (R): 40 (41) [41]
Undecided: 12 (14) [12]
Barack Obama (D): 55 (53) [53]
Sarah Palin (R): 35 (36) [37]
Undecided: 9 (11) [10]
Barack Obama (D): 54 (50) [51]
Newt Gingrich (R): 33 (39) [38]
Undecided: 13 (11) [11]
Barack Obama (D): 49
Tim Pawlenty (R): 37
Undecided: 14
Barack Obama (D): 50
Herman Cain (R): 32
Undecided: 18
(MoE: ±2.6%)
I've included the January numbers so that you can get a better sense of the trend here. The January and April polls were pretty similar, but PPP's newest shows a decided bounce. Obama's approvals moved from 41-50 to 49-45, but note that the D-R-I composition of the sample barely budged. Some more thoughts from Tom Jensen:
Iowa, along with North Carolina, is one of the swing states where it really hurts the GOP not to have Huckabee in the picture. He was easily the strongest potential nominee in the state, faring 2 points better than Romney against Obama when we polled it in January and 4 points better than Romney when we looked at it again in April. Romney now does the best of the Republicans in the state but he trails Obama by 9 points at 49-40, a margin almost identical to Obama's blowout victory in the state last time around.
I don't know that Huckabee would have been the GOP's savior nationwide, though, even if he did run reasonably well in Iowa. Tom notes that "the weak Republican field" is the president's "greatest ally," but right now, my biggest concern is the economy. As we saw last year, a lousy economy is more than capable of sweeping lousy candidates into office.
This diary is brought to you by Daily Kos Elections, an official Daily Kos sub-site. Please read our
Mission Statement. Our focus is on electoral politics rather than policy. Welcome aboard!