I wanted to do something a little different from drawing what the 2012 maps might look like. So this is the first in what I'm hoping is a series of diaries looking at what the congressional makeup would be under the Wyoming Rule.
First impression is that the Wyoming Rule has the potential to make an even more partisan House, as Republican districts seem to get redder and Democratic districts seem to get bluer.
First up is a big one, Texas. I don't have quite the gerrymandering skills as those drawing the maps in Austin, but I think I do a pretty decent job of getting an idea of what things would look like, and it's not good for Democrats.
Texas would get 45 congressional districts under the Wyoming Rule. It is possible to draw a 35-10 Republican map. However, this would require several districts, especially in the Dallas-Fort Worth metro area, to be around 51%-52% McCain. Instead, I drew an additional Democratic Fort Worth vote sink that results in all but one McCain district (TX-23) being at least 55% McCain. This results in a pretty solid 34-11 map.
The biggest reservation I have is in the Houston area. I was intent on drawing 2 Hispanic majority and 1 AA majority district. This resulted in the AA majority district being 55% AA and 90% Obama. I could probably switch some things around to make Gene Green, Ron Paul, and Pete Olson all safer. So without any further ado, Texas under the Wyoming Rule...
West Texas
TX-16 Silvestre Reyes (D-El Paso)
Reyes' familiar El Paso district becomes more Hispanic and more Democratic.
83% Hispanic
73% Obama 27% McCain
D+17
TX-23 Open
This district is maintained as an El Paso-to-San Antonio district, although I don't believe Quico Canseco lives here. It is still the swingiest district in the state
59% Hispanic
47% Obama 53% McCain
R+8
San Antonio
TX-36 Quico Canseco (R-San Antonio)
Canseco's new district contains NW San Antonio and some outlying counties. It should be safer for him than his current district.
42% Obama 58% McCain
R+13
TX-20 Charlie Gonzalez (D-San Antonio)
Gonzalez's central San Antonio district gets more compact, more Hispanic, and more Democratic.
81% Hispanic
74% Obama 26% McCain
D+17
TX-21 Lamar Smith (R-San Antonio)
Smith's district gets much more compact and more Republican, now comprised of NE San Antonio suburbs and Comal County.
38% Obama 62% McCain
R+17
TX-35 Open
This is a new district sandwiched between San Antonio and Austin. I imagine a Republican pick up here.
43% Obama 57% McCain
R+12
South Texas
TX-28 Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo)
Due to the smaller district sizes, the South Texas districts can no longer reach all the way up to San Antonio. Cuellar's district is fairly similar to the one being proposed for the new 2011 map. It is based around Laredo, is massively Hispanic and very Democratic.
93% Hispanic
74% Obama 25% McCain
D+18
TX-15 Ruben Hinojosa (D-Mercedes)
There is now a district which is contained entirely within Hidalgo County. It is obviously Hispanic majority and Democratic.
86% Hispanic
67% Obama 33% McCain
D+10
TX-34 Open
Like the newly proposed map, TX-34 remains similar to what TX-27 is now, but Blake Farenthold no longer lives here so it is an open, Hispanic majority, likely Democratic seat.
87% Hispanic
68% Obama 32% McCain
D+12
TX-27 Blake Farenthold (R-Corpus Christi)
Farenthold gets a Corpus Christi-based district that reaches up to San Antonio to take in some of the areas that the fajita strip districts no longer take in. There is actually a Hispanic majority here and is one of the least Republican of the McCain districts.
54% Hispanic
45% Obama 55% McCain
R+10
Austin/Houston areas
TX-37 Open
This is a new district that meanders from northern Travis County all the way down to the Gulf Coast. It is possible that this district could be competitive at some time, but it currently has a Republican lean.
44% Obama 56% McCain
R+11
TX-25 Lloyd Doggett (D-Austin)
Austin now gets its own district. I'm not 100% sure if Doggett lives here, but he would run here. It is 40% Hispanic, so he may get a Hispanic challenger in a primary.
78% Obama 22% McCain
D+25
TX-10 Michael McCaul (R-Austin)
McCaul's district is similar to what it is now. It starts in the Austin suburbs and reaches out towards Houston but also takes in College Station. Bill Flores is also in this district, but I'm assuming he'd run in the new TX-17.
43% Obama 57% McCain
R+12
TX-07 John Culberson (R-Houston)
Culberson's district starts in Houston and expands outward to parts of Weller and Austin counties. It becomes slightly more Republican.
40% Obama 60% McCain
R+15
TX-22 Pete Olson (R-Sugar Land)
Pete Olson gets a very interesting district that he wouldn't be all too happy with. It is a coalition minority-majority district, but it went for McCain by 12 points. This could end up being a pretty competitive district at some point.
17% AA, 28% Hispanic, 13% Asian
44% Obama 56% McCain
R+10
TX-14 Ron Paul (R-Lake Jackson)
Paul maintains his Gulf Coast area district. However, it also snakes up towards Houston to take in some Democratic precincts. This now also becomes a minority-majority district.
14% AA, 25% Hispanic, 13% Asian
41% Obama 58% McCain
R+11
TX-39 Open
This is a new Galveston County based district. No current incumbent lives here, but this should be a safe Republican pick up.
40% Obama 60% McCain
R+13
TX-02 Ted Poe (R-Humble)
Poe's district is very similar to what it is currently, but it loses some highly Democratic areas in Beaumont and Port Arthur. As a result, it becomes more Republican
36% Obama 64% McCain
R+17
Houston
TX-09 Al Green (D-Houston)
Al Green gets an AA-majority district now that is overwhelmingly Democratic.
55% AA
90% Obama 10% McCain
D+35
TX-18 Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston)
Lee's district becomes majority Hispanic. Not sure if this will end up being a problem for her or not. The district is still safely Democratic.
24% AA, 51% Hispanic
73% Obama 27% McCain
D+20
TX-29 Gene Green (D-Houston)
Gene Green's district gets slightly more Hispanic but slightly less Democratic. I think it would be possible to push Al Green's district to the west, have Gene Green pick up some of Al's AA districts, and end up helping out Ron Paul and Pete Olson, but this could result in TX-09 not being an AA majority district.
68% Hispanic
60% Obama 40% McCain
D+6
TX-42 Kevin Brady (R-The Woodlands)
This is a new Houston suburbs district. Kevin Brady lives here, although there is very little of his old territory in this new district. He should have no problem holding this district however.
33% Obama 67% McCain
R+19
TX-43 Open
This is the second new Houston area district. It is barely a coalition minority-majority district, but should be pretty safe Republican for a while.
9% AA, 34% Hispanic, 7% Asian
39% Obama 61% McCain
R+15
East Central Texas
TX-17 Bill Flores (R-Bryan)
Bill Flores doesn't quite live in this district and it contains a lot of new territory, but it's better than running against McCaul, so I think he runs in this safe Republican district.
39% Obama McCain 61% McCain
R+15
TX-08 Open
This district is almost all of Kevin Brady's old 8th district, but he's drawn into the new TX-42. This is a very safe Republican district.
26% Obama 74% McCain
R+25
TX-41 Open
This is a new east Texas district that takes in much of TX-01's old territory (due to TX-01 becoming much more compact). It reaches all the way down into Beaumont and Port Arthur. It is a safe Republican pick up.
37% Obama 63% McCain
R+17
Northeast Texas
TX-01 Louie Gohmert (R-Tyler)
Gohmert's district needs to shed a lot of population, but it remains very Republican.
30% Obama 70% McCain
R+22
TX-04 Open
TX-04 remains a district in the northeastern corner of the state. However, incumbent Ralph Hall does not live here so it's an open district. Safe Republican
30% Obama 70% McCain
R+22
TX-05 Jeb Hensarling (R-Dallas)
Hensarling's district starts in Dallas and stretches out to the southeast. It becomes a bit safer for Hensarling.
34% Obama 66% McCain
R+20
Dallas
TX-03 Sam Johnson (R-Plano)
Johnson's third district starts near Dallas and comes out to Plano in Collin County. It becomes a bit safer for the Republican.
41% Obama 59% McCain
R+15
TX-44 Ralph Hall (R-Rockwall)
This is a new Dallas/Garland/Rockwall County district. Ralph Hall lives here but this district is quite a bit less Republican than his old one.
43% Obama 57% McCain
R+12
TX-30 Eddie Bernice Johnson (D-Dallas)
EBJ maintains her Dallas-based coalition district. It is probably possible to draw an AA-majority district by snaking over to Ft. Worth, but I decided to keep this district as is.
47% AA, 38% Hispanic
87% Obama 13% McCain
D+32
TX-45 Open
New southern Tarrant County and Johnson County district. It should be a fairly safe Republican pick up.
40% Obama 60% McCain
R+15
TX-40 Open
The Dallas-Fort Worth metro area gets a second safe Democratic seat. This one is based in Ft. Worth, but snakes over to Irving to pack in some more Democrats.
50% Hispanic
72% Obama 28% McCain
D+19
TX-12 Kay Granger (R-Fort Worth)
Granger's Fort Worth based district is now entirely within Tarrant County. This makes it slightly less Republican, but still pretty safe.
40% Obama 60% McCain
R+15
TX-24 Pete Sessions (R-Dallas)
Pete Sessions and Kenny Marchant actually kind of switch districts here. The new 24th compacts in Tarrant and Dallas counties. It is a few points safer for Sessions.
40% Obama 60% McCain
R+15
TX-32 Kenny Marchant (R-Coppell)
This district is now the far northern part of Tarrant and Dallas counties. It also becomes safer Republican.
40% Obama 60% McCain (see a pattern here?)
R+15
TX-38 Open
This is a new district that spans Collin and Denton counties in the Plano and Lewisville areas. Yet another safe Republican pick up.
39% Obama 61% McCain
R+16
Central Texas
TX-06 Joe Barton (R-Ennis)
Joe Barton's district remains Dallas and points south. I give him a much more favorable district than what is currently being presented for the new map.
42% Obama 58% McCain
R+13
TX-31 John Carter (R-Round Rock)
Carter's district is still based in Round Rock but takes in a couple other counties to the northwest.
41% Obama 59% McCain
R+14
North Central Texas
TX-26 Michael Burgess (R-Lewisville)
This district is strictly Denton County and points north. It no longer needs to dive into Fort Worth. Burgess is the main beneficiary from a new Fort Worth Democratic district.
35% Obama 65% McCain
R+20
TX-33 Open
A new open district that starts in Wichita Falls and wanders south, taking in many rural central Texas counties. Democrats need not apply.
24% Obama 76% McCain
R+27
Panhandle/West Texas
TX-13 Mac Thornberry (R-Clarendon)
The most Republican district in the country gets more Republican.
22% Obama 78% McCain
R+30
TX-19 Randy Neugebauer (R-Lubbock)
Not much to say about the Lubbock-based district. Highly Republican.
30% Obama 70% McCain
R+24
TX-11 Mike Conaway (R-Midland)
Yawn. Yet another deeply red west Texas district.
26% Obama 74% McCain
R+26
So there you have it. A pretty solid 34-11 map. At least in Texas, the Wyoming Rule is not good for Democrats. This IS a Republican gerrymander of sorts, so I expect many comments on VRA complaince (there are 9 Hispanic districts, 1 AA district, and 4 coalition districts - 3 of which should be Republican in 2012). Other than that, any thoughts?