So here we are, ready to start talking about warfare. Before we can start applying our thought processes, we need to understand the thought process. To do that, we'll use something called the OODA Loop, generally associated with John Boyd.
John Boyd and the OODA Loop
Boyd was one of the best pilots the world has ever seen. He's accurately referred to as the father of the F-16 and was renowned in the US Air Force for being able to quickly turn a defensive position into an offensive one in a dogfight. He had a focus and an intellect to tackle one of the most difficult problems in aviation; he wanted to know why he was the best, especially why someone in a better aircraft would be defeated by Boyd in an inferior one.
What he came up with is a decision making process that he attributed to making that difference. The four steps (in noun format) are Observation, Orientation, Decision, and Action. This process, called the OODA Loop, is repeated throughout any air-to-air engagement by all sides. More importantly, this process is applied by any human being making any decision. His thoughts paved the way for the United States to shift to a maneuver warfare doctrine for its war-fighting strategy. Many classical strategies, including the original Desert Storm strategy, were minor variations of "Hey diddle diddle, right up the middle." Boyd's thoughts were a catalyst for moving away from that thought.
The Marine Corps hates pilots, even its own. When John Boyd died the Commandant of the Marine Corps placed an Eagle Globe & Anchor (the USMC's symbol) on his tombstone. The entirety of students at The Basic School were in attendance. The Marine Corps owes its modern doctrine to this fighter pilot.
Ooda - Observation
So we've got four steps that seem simple enough. Success in conflict requires a thorough understanding of these four steps and what they mean.
Observation seems simple enough, just look around. Unfortunately, it's a little more complicated than that. Observation involves everything we can do to take in information. Sight, sound, smell, taste, and touch are generally considered the base senses, and everything that stimulates these senses works in the observation phase. The satellite photo, scouting radio reports, friendly status updates, time of day, current weather, and any other possible information input all serve to overwhelm the decision maker.
This potential deluge of information creates a unique problem: excessive observation. There is a game posed to new lieutenants where a sniper is feeding you information and is going to take a shot on your signal, however your signal cuts off radio contact. The game is to see where people cut off the flow of information. Fortunately there are tools available to counteract this, most notably the next stage of the loop.
oOda - Orientation
Orientation is at it's simplest the process of processing the information gathered during the Observation stage. It involves taking the information and asking several questions about it. First, is this information I need? It's great if opposition forces haven't had their usual ration of wine, but does that change my strategy?
Other things to consider during the orientation phase is whether the information you have is new or an update. If it's new, perhaps it opens an entirely new line of decisions that have to be made. If it's an update, a good plan (discussed in Part III) will minimize the time needed to process this information.
Everything you do with information once you get it is part of the orientation stage. Proper orientation is more than simply being pointed in the right direction, it's being able to filter out useful information from non useful, real from distraction, and "must act" from "this can wait."
ooDa - Decision
Simple in concept, what you want to do now that you've processed your information. Like every other step, the devil is in the details and the difference between a good decision maker and a poor decision maker is huge and has a substantial effect on the battlefield. A good decision hinges on the previous steps being done well as well. A poor observation will result in issues even if there is good orientation, and a poor orientation with good information will result in a poor decision as well.
The decision must be made quickly as well. Frequently new leaders are told "A good plan now is better than the perfect plan later." A slow decision can result in paralysis which is tremendously destructive for a decision maker. Of course, a poor plan right now will be worse than a good plan a little later, but some leaders can't quite make that distinction.
So just make the right choice. Easy as that :)
oodA - Action
Finally, we have to do what we decided to do. There's several factors involved in this, primarily the skill of the actors involved. The first variable of action (and, consequently, a large part of the decision stage) is can those responsible for the act actually do it. For instance, the decision to set up a bridge may be the best option, but if you don't actually have a bridgelayer it may be an extremely difficult action to accomplish. Other factors include the time it takes to complete an action, what the expected result is, and how many resources will the action cost.
ooda LOOP
Yup, it's called the OODA Loop for a reason, once the action stage is underway it's time for the decision maker to go back to observation. How is the action phase progressing? Is it having the desired result? Is it even possible? These questions and infinitely more will compose the core of a new observation stage and the start of a new OODA Loop cycle.
Enough for now
Books have been written on the OODA Loop. As mentioned in diary 1, I'm a student of maneuver warfare, and not a subject matter expert. What you read above is just enough to get the basic idea of the OODA Loop, but it's important because it will form the basis for the rest of this series. Everything talked about in the following diaries hinges on the mental aspects of decision making and the decision making process is best understood with the OODA Loop. Subsequent diaries won't go into a detailed OODA loop discussion of the events, but that's what the forums are for. DK has some very knowledgeable posters and they'll help both you and me in advancing our knowledge of how to make good decisions.