Today in Vienna, OPEC talks collapsed acrimoniously, ensuring that rising fuel costs plaguing the U.S. (and the world) would continue, unabated, in the short term.
The OPEC meeting was convened – after the U.S. pressured Saudi Arabia to stem rising fuel inflation – to discuss increasing oil production by member nations as a way to control skyrocketing crude oil costs.
However, Iran – in an unusually successful move at OPEC – cobbled together a coalition strong enough to block the Saudi plan for increased production.
And the move was made with the United States in mind.
For background and a brief analysis, join me over the fold.
The atmosphere at today's OPEC meeting was incredibly tense, underscoring the deep political motivations underlying Iran's move to block more production. From Reuters:
OPEC talks broke down in acrimony on Wednesday without an agreement to raise output after Saudi Arabia failed to convince the oil cartel to lift production.
"We were unable to reach an agreement -- this is one of the worst meetings we have ever had," said Ali al-Naimi, oil minister for Saudi Arabia, OPEC's biggest producer.
Most of the political commentary surrounding Iran's move to counter Saudi Arabia's initiative – it was able to create a coalition of Libya, Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Venezuela, and Iraq – has focused on (Shi'ite) Iran's anger at (Sunni) Saudi Arabia for assisting (Sunni-lead) Baharain's suppression of its Shi'ite majority. Additionally, there has been focus on Iran's displeasure with Qatar for participating in operations against Libya.
In short, attention has been paid on how the Shi'ite/Sunni divide has intensified with recent regional events, and how this element is underpinning what transpired today at OPEC.
However, something much deeper is transpiring, in my opinion, and it has much to do with the topic of Seymour Hersh's fantastic New Yorker article Iran and the Bomb.
Iran has been – no surprise here – mighty displeased with the United States for the leadership role it has taken in procuring sanctions against the current regime. Sanctions, it should be noted, that have been levied because of the country's alleged nuclear weapons program, or at the very least, its "weaponization" program.
The focus of Hersh's article: while the Obama administration and Congress are convinced that Iran is pursuing a nuclear bomb, the "two most recent National Intelligence Estimates (N.I.E.s) on Iranian nuclear progress have stated that there is no conclusive evidence that Iran has made any effort to build the bomb since 2003."
These N.I.E.s, it should be noted, are incredibly comprehensive and highly classified, and incorporate data gathered by putting surreptitiously-placed radiation sensors throughout Iran. (For example, in bricks, street signs and under roads near facilities suspected of enriching uranium.)
In other words: our best, most sophisticated intelligence – an intelligence that, this time, is in direct opposition to what the current administration wants – shows that Iran is being sanctioned for something that it is not doing. Yet.*
All this has enraged the Iranian leadership. Which leads us to today, and OPEC. It would be naive to view what transpired as being motivated solely by internal, regional politics, by Sunni/Shia dynamics.
No, Iran today is sanctioning the United States and the EU with its OPEC gambit. With oil prices over $118 per barrel and rising (over a dollar just today), and with said prices crippling our economy, who do you think Iran is trying to punish?
In my view, the United States.
Which is just one more reason, as Iran gains stronger footholds in the region, that we must move, with increasing urgency, toward "oil independence," toward a green energy revolution, toward a sustainable energy future not reliant on an OPEC that will have more Iranian influence, not less, as time goes on.
* Note: I am not making an argument that Iran will not pursue a bomb – I trust the regime as much as the Obama administration (meaning, not at all). However, I am noting the background that partially explains Iran's anger.