So, do you think the Republicans are going to sacrifice one of their seats in the Philadelphia suburbs to help out their other incumbents there? I doubt it. I drew a map that sets out to protect all the incumbent Republicans as much as possible and eliminate both Critz and Altmire. Democrats would be left with five safe seats (PA-01, 02, 13, 14, and 17) and a tough row to hoe in most of the other districts.
Open the pictures in a new window for a bigger view. First, the Republican map:
PA-01 (blue, Bob Brady - D) - Mostly the same, just takes in a little more of Delaware County. 39.5% black VAP. Goes from 88-11 Obama to 85-14 Obama.
PA-02 (green, Chaka Fattah - D) - Also pretty much the same as the old district. 55.0% black VAP. Goes from 90-10 Obama to 90-9 Obama.
PA-03 (purple NW, Mike Kelly - R) - Borders change, but pretty similar to the old district. Goes from 49-49 McCain to 50-49 McCain.
PA-04 (red, Jason Altmire - D and Mark Critz - D) - I carved up both Altmire and Critz's districts in an attempt to get rid of both. PA-04 contains both Altmire's home in suburban Allegheny County and Critz's home in Johnstown. I cut out the areas that went strong for Altmire (Beaver and Lawrence Counties) and for Critz (Greene, Fayette, and Washington Counties) and instead centered the district in Westmoreland County. Goes from 55-44 McCain to 56-43 McCain.
PA-05 (yellow N, Glenn Thompson - R) - Had to shift this one south in order to accomodate PA-10, but it remains 55-44 McCain.
PA-06 (teal, Jim Gerlach - R) - This one had to shift north. Whereas it used to be mostly in Chester County, now it's mostly in Montgomery and Berks. Gerlach might not like having a bunch of new territory, but I managed to cut the Obama margin quite a bit. It went from 58-41 Obama to 52-47 Obama.
PA-07 (grey, Patrick Meehan - R) - Dropped the Montgomery County portion of the district and added a lot more of Chester County. Goes from 56-43 Obama to 53-46 Obama.
PA-08 (light purple SE, Mike Fitzpatrick - R) - Bucks County stays all in the same district, but the bits that poke into Philadelphia and Montgomery County are reconfigured to drop the margin a bit. Goes from 54-45 Obama to 53-46 Obama.
PA-09 (sky blue, Bill Shuster - R) - Stretches east to gobble up some Democrat-friendly parts of PA-12. Remains the most Republican district in the state, though. Goes from 63-35 McCain to 59-39 McCain.
PA-10 (magenta, Tom Marino - R) - Chops out the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre area stuff and stretches west way across the state. Stays the same at 54-45 McCain.
PA-11 (light green, Lou Barletta - R) - Almost an entirely new district, but Barletta will be happy to be in one that voted for McCain. Cuts out all of Scranton and Wilkes-Barre and instead goes down to Harrisburg. Goes from 57-42 Obama to 52-47 McCain.
PA-12 (light purple S, Todd Platts - R) - The former PA-19 remains pretty much the same. Goes from 56-42 McCain to 56-43 McCain.
PA-13 (pink, Allyson Schwartz - D) - Redrawn a bit to soak up some more Democratic territory. Goes from 59-41 Obama to 62-37 Obama.
PA-14 (brown, Mike Doyle - D) - Expands a bit, but pretty much the same. Goes from 70-29 Obama to 68-32 Obama.
PA-15 (orange, Charlie Dent - R) - Cut Bethlehem out of the district and expanded it north. Goes from 56-43 Obama to 53-46 Obama.
PA-16 (light green S, Joe Pitts - R) - Pretty similar to the old district, just swaps a bit of Chester with PA-07. Stays the same at 51-48 McCain.
PA-17 (purple NE, Tim Holden - D) - Holden gets an almost completely new district; basically just attached Schuylkill County to a Dem vote sink that takes in Scranton, Wilkes-Barre, and Bethlehem. Goes from 57-42 McCain to 58-41 Obama.
PA-18 (yellow SW, Tim Murphy - R) - Drops a bunch of Westmoreland County and pulls in parts of PA-04 and PA-12 to weaken the Democrats' chances of holding PA-04. Goes from 55-44 McCain to 54-45 McCain.
And now, for an intellectual exercise, here's a map to maximize Democratic chances in the Keystone State:
PA-01 (blue) - Soaks up some Republican parts of Delaware County. 49% white, 29% black, 13% Hispanic, 8% Asian VAP. Goes from 88-11 Obama to 78-21 Obama.
PA-02 (green) - Stretches up to the northeastern end of Philadelphia to take in some Republican precincts. 50.2% black VAP. Goes from 90-10 Obama to 84-16 Obama.
PA-03 (purple) - Mike Kelly is one of the few Republican winners here; he gets an uber-safe district based in his home turf of Butler County. Goes from 49-49 McCain to 60-39 McCain.
PA-04 (red) - Jason Altmire likely wouldn't want an Obama district, so I kept this a McCain district, but it's much closer now. Drops the worst parts of the district for him and adds some more of Allegheny, including a bit of northern Pittsburgh. Goes from 55-44 McCain to 50-49 McCain.
PA-05 (yellow NW) - Time to get serious here. Glenn Thompson's district has Erie County appended to it in order to create a Dem-friendly swing district. Goes from 55-44 McCain to 54-45 Obama.
PA-06 (teal) - Jim Gerlach's district is drawn out from under him (he's just across the border, in PA-16), and also has much of its territory removed to create a Lancaster-Reading-Pottstown-Norristown district. Gerlach could run here, but it might be easier for him to run in PA-16, given that his Chester County base is mostly there. Goes from 58-41 Obama to 56-43 Obama.
PA-07 (grey) - Patrick Meehan and Joe Pitts are put together in this district, which is strengthened from 56-43 Obama to 61-38 Obama.
PA-08 (light purple SE) - Oh no, Bucks County got chopped up! Add parts of Philadelphia and Montgomery County, and you get a district that goes from 54-45 Obama to 60-39 Obama.
PA-09 (sky blue) - Bill Shuster's district remains mostly the same, and stays 63-35 McCain.
PA-10 (magenta) - Tom Marino gets a safe district, going from 54-45 McCain to 59-40 McCain.
PA-11 (light green NE) - Not much could be done to unseat Lou Barletta, so the Democrats would have to do some work. Goes from 57-42 Obama to 56-43 Obama.
PA-12 (light purple SW) - Reconfigured the Murthamander to up the Democratic performance a bit. Goes from 50-49 McCain to 51-48 Obama.
PA-13 (pink) - Allyson Schwartz gets the other half of Bucks County. Goes from 59-41 Obama to 61-39 Obama.
PA-14 (brown) - Mike Doyle's district drops quite a bit of Democratic performance, but remains safe. Tim Murphy is dropped in this district. Goes from 70-29 Obama to 62-37 Obama.
PA-15 (orange) - Charlie Dent gains some more Democratic territory and loses some Republican territory, goes from 56-43 Obama to 59-40 Obama.
PA-16 (light green SE) - Republican vote sink. No incumbent actually lives in this district, but it would be good for either Gerlach or Pitts, who are both just over the border. Goes from 51-48 McCain to 55-44 McCain.
PA-17 (dark purple) - Tim Holden gets a much improved district, though not a safe one, so he can continue being a Blue Dog. Picks up the Harrisburg suburbs and York. Goes from 57-42 McCain to 50-49 Obama.
PA-18 (yellow SE) - Formerly PA-19, Todd Platts is probably just outside the district, since he lives in York. It's extremely Republican now, going from 56-42 McCain to 61-39 McCain.