Christie's trademark: yelling at someone
photo credit: Office of the Governor
You gotta love this headline from the new Fairleigh Dickinson-PublicMind national poll:
Jersey Guy Trails the President: But Then, So Does Everyone Else
Visits to or from Iowa notwithstanding, New Jersey’s Gov. Chris Christie does not stack up as well against President Barack Obama now as he did just a few months ago. In a head-to-head match-up against Obama, Christie trails 34%-50%, a backslide from 40%-46% measured in March, according to a new national poll of registered voters by Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMindTM.
That's hardly a surprise for Daily Kos readers (see
SUSA: "Popular" Christie tanks in New Jersey) or for actual voters in NJ (
NJ Gov: Poll responders say Chris Christie is "arrogant" and a "bully".) Both know Christie is not popular. It may, however, be a surprise for the national press.
Rick Perry's not in the poll, but Mitt Romney, the front runner, is.
Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney performs the best of a poorly performing lot, trailing the president by six points, 39%-45%. Romney also attracts four of five Republicans and Republican “leaners,” a better showing than the rest of the field.
“Since Romney is by far the best known in the field, it would mean instant death if polls did not show him outperforming the field,” said Woolley.
Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann, who is expected to announce her candidacy soon, trails 19 points behind at 32%-51%. But she is indistinguishable from former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum (33%-52%), or former Speaker Newt Gingrich (30%-50%). Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty lags in the pack, losing 29%-56%.
Pawlenty isn't exactly catching fire here. No matter how much the media and the insiders push him, he doesn't move much. Huntsman is in a worse position, but getting back to Mitt,
Larry Sabato sees what we see:
Leading the first tier of contenders is former Gov. Mitt Romney (MA), who is an exceptionally weak frontrunner, perhaps the weakest GOP frontrunner since 1964, when the GOP rejected Nelson Rockefeller and other moderates in favor of Barry Goldwater. We all know how that one turned out. Romney has many problems: He is seen as a flip-flopper — a one-time moderate turned conservative warrior. Even worse, his signature accomplishment as Massachusetts governor was a health care plan that provided the model for President Obama’s plan, which is loathed by most Republican primary voters. That said, remember how John McCain supposedly was so disliked by the GOP base that he could never win the nomination? We all know how that one turned out, as well.
He won the nom—and we know how that election turned out.
Now, let's be clear (for the umpteenth time). This is a solid year away from the important and more accurate polls. They don't tell you who will win, but they are important nonetheless. They tell you the state of the GOP (weak, and unsatisfactory.) They tell you that some of the White Knights like Christie would lose (he's not all that popular, but the national media will refuse to acknowledge that.) They explain why the door is open for folks like Rick Perry, the most likely new entrant, and Rudy Giuliani, the most outlandish one.
And given the same content as poll after poll (despite unhappiness with the economy, Obama leads the GOP field), the economy remains the major issue in the campaign, but isn't a slam dunk in terms of guaranteeing a win for the Republican. It may be that people still blame Bush more (and they do, not a great thing for a Texas Governor wanting to run). It may be that people don't trust the GOP on big domestic issues given what they see Ryan wanting to do to Medicare. And it certainly may be that they simply like Obama better. Action figures like Chris Christie don't wear well over time. So, without minimizing the importance of the economy, don't assume anything without looking at where the poll numbers take you.