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This is my Wyoming Rule map of Minnesota. As with my Wisconsin and Indiana maps, the districts are based on communities of interest. The map would generate 3 solidly democratic seats, 1 Solidly republican seat, and 6 seats that could theoretically be won by either party. As always, feedback is appreciated.


Twin Cities close-up:

District 1 (Blue):
Obama 75.4%, McCain 22.5%
VAP: White 67.1%, Black 15.2%, Hispanic 7.6% Asian 6.5% Native American 1.3%, Other 2.4%

This Is Keith Ellison's Minneapolis District. It is the most Democratic in the state, so Republicans aren't winning here.

District 2 (Green):
Obama 65.9%, McCain 32.1%
VAP: White 73.3%, Black 8.9%, Hispanic 6.2% Asian 9.2% Native American 0.6%, Other 1.7%

Betty McCollum's St. Paul District. Again, democrat's aren't losing here.

District 3 (Purple):
Obama 57.8%, McCain 40.6%
VAP: White 81.9%, Black 6.5%, Hispanic 4.3% Asian 5.6% Native American 0.3%, Other 1.4%

Erik Paulsen lives in this inner Hennepin suburbs district, but it's 5 points more Democratic than his current even PVI district, so he might run next door in the fifth instead.

District 4 (Red):
Obama 47.9%, McCain 50.4%
VAP: White 89.1%, Black 3.0%, Hispanic 2.2% Asian 4.2% Native American 0.4%, Other 1.1

This suburban twin cities district leans heavily republican but a democrat could win it under certain conditions. In particular, Michelle Bachman lives in this district, and if she runs here, I think there's a good chance she could lose. However, even if she doesn't run for president, there's a good chance she runs in the nearby 7th instead, and I think a sane Republican is probably favored to win this seat.

District 5 (Yellow):
Obama 49.7%, McCain 48.5%
VAP: White 85.6%, Black 3.3%, Hispanic 4.3% Asian 5.0% Native American 0.4%, Other 1.2%

Obama barely won this suburban twin cities district, and it leans Republican. No one in the current delegation lives here, but either Paulsen or Kline could run here; Paulsen because his old district is now substantially more democratic or Kline to avoid a primary with Bachman in his native 7th. Off hand, I'd say Paulsen would be fine here but Kline might have some issues.

District 6 (Teal):
Obama 55.6%, McCain 42.0%
VAP: White 94.0%, Black 0.8%, Hispanic 0.9% Asian 0.6% Native American 2.5%, Other 1.1%

This Duluth based Iron Range district is pretty much solidly democratic, Chip Cravaaaaaaaaaack like flukes aside. The Obama numbers are deceptively low, as McCain moneybombed the Duluth media market.

District 7 (Gray):
Obama 40.8%, McCain 57.2%
VAP: White 95.5%, Black 0.8%, Hispanic 1.7% Asian 1.0% Native American 0.3%, Other 0.7%

This Exurban twin cities district is the most Republican district in the state, and will undoubtedly elect a Republican. John Kline lives here and would probably prefer to run here, but if she doesn't run for president, this District is probably Michelle Bachman's if she wants it.

District 8 (Slate Blue):
Obama 48.7%, McCain 48.9%
VAP: White 92.0%, Black 0.7%, Hispanic 2.6% Asian 1.1% Native American 2.7%, Other 0.9%

Colin Peterson should have no trouble holding down this western rural district. When he retires, it probably leans republican, although the right type of democrat could still win.

District 9 (Cyan):
Obama 46.5%, McCain 50.9%
VAP: White 93.0%, Black 1.6%, Hispanic 3.1% Asian 1.3% Native American 0.4%, Other 0.6%

This district spans from St. Cloud to Mankato, and leans heavily Republican. Tim Walz lives here, but would not like this district and might run in the nearby 10th instead. This district is probably tilt R even with Walz running.

District 10 (Pink):
Obama 51.9%, McCain 45.7%
VAP: White 90.9%, Black 2.0%, Hispanic 3.9% Asian 2.2% Native American 0.3%, Other 0.7%

This Rochester based southern rural district would be highly competitive in a open seat situation, although Tim Walz could hold it down pretty easily if he ran here. The numbers for this district hue pretty close to the national average.



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