I am trying to figure out how the 2010 elections would have turned out if McCain had been elected in 2008. With Obama in the White House, Republicans won the House popular vote 52%-45%. Im assuming had McCain been in the White House, Democrats would have won the House by a similar margin, meaning a 7% swing to Democrats.
Assuming a 7% swing to Democrats, Democrats would have held a 60-40 majority in the seat(gaining North Carolina and Kentucky but losing Arkansas and North Dakota).
In the House, Democrats would have held the same 256-179 majority
In governors races, Democrats would have held a commanding 32-17 majority over
Republicans and would have controlled redistricting not just in Maryland, Arkansas, West Virginia, and Illinois, but also in North Carolina, and New York, while Republicans would have only controlled redistricting in Tennessee, Kansas, Nebraska, and Utah.
2010 was a very bad cycle for Democrats to lose big in and will have consequences for the rest of the decade.