U.S. Army Pfc. Shawn gives the thumbs-up
as he is evacuated after being injured
by a roadside bomb, June 17, 2011,
in Kandahar Province of Afghanistan.
(Photo by U.S. Navy Lt. j.g. Haraz N. Ghanbari)
In a speech Wednesday at 8 PM ET, President Obama will announce a troop withdrawal to a nation impatient to get out of Afghanistan. The key questions about the withdrawal remain as they have since a 30,000-troop surge was announced 19 months ago added to a 31,000-troop surge 27 months ago: how many? how fast? and when will they
all be home?
The apparent answer to the last question: not for a very long time. Predictions are all over the place, but a strategic residual force of 15,000-25,000 might stay well beyond 2014 to run counter-terrorism operations, continue the training of the Afghan National Army and protect civilians involved in rebuilding projects.
Whether the level of that residual force would be reached by the end of 2012 or later is where most of the speculation has been focused. Sifting through all the informed guesswork in the megamedia suggests that there likely will be a token withdrawal of 3000-5000 in July, with a more substantial drawdown beginning in November when the current "fighting season" comes to an end. How substantial?
By the end of this year, if the hawks (Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, Gen. David Petraeus, possibly Secretary of State Hillary Clinton) have their way, only about 10,000 troops will have been removed and a larger withdrawal won't begin until late in 2012. The rationale behind that is that military commanders both on the ground and all the way to the top of the Pentagon believe the U.S. strategy is working, but that it needs more time. If the President buys that perspective, it would mean 85,000 U.S. and an unknown number of other NATO troops could still be engaged in Afghanistan at this time next year—right through the reelection campaign. When Obama came into office, there were about 36,000 U.S. troops in Afghanistan.
On the other hand, if Vice President Joe Biden and other members of the National Security staff have their way, 15,000-20,000 troops would be withdrawn by the end of this year, and another 50,000-65,000 would be brought home by the end of next year. Their view is that not much more will be achieved by a larger force sticking around longer. That is especially true with Osama bin Laden in his watery grave.
The same questions about Afghanistan have been discussed since President Obama ordered the first surge of additional troops in March 2009 and the second surge that December. What justifies the United States still being there? What can reasonably be accomplished? What will it cost in lives and money? Will it make Americans and other targets of a weakened and decentralized al Qaeda safer? Will it effectively undermine the Taliban and the Haqqani network? Will it make any long-term difference to the well-being of Afghans, including women who suffered gravely under Taliban rule?
Among those who have long opposed the war, there are some additional questions: Is there anything truly different between the foreign policy model being expressed in Afghanistan and what the United States has done in the past? Does the long-term presence of U.S. troops of the sort being envisioned by all but the most antiwar members of Congress enhance national security, or is it just an extension of a hoary imperial policy that has 800-plus U.S. bases stationed around the globe? Will a residual force amount to occupation on the cheap?
The latest Pew poll shows a record 56 percent of Americans want the troops home from Afghanistan as soon as possible, with only 39 percent wanting them to stay until the country is stabilized. Among Democrats, 67 percent want to withdraw as soon as possible. The opposition to staying is not just among the rank and file. In February, the Democratic National Committee passed a resolution seeking a significant reduction in U.S. troop strength.
There has also been growing opposition in Congress. And on Monday, mayors meeting in their annual conference voted in favor of a resolution calling for the United States to end its involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan and redirect the billions of dollars being torched by those wars into rebuilding American's cities. That must surely be adding to pressure on the President to withdraw quicker rather than slower.
One question that is unlikely to be answered in the President's speech is what will happen with the 18,919 private security contractors in Afghanistan as the withdrawal of troops goes forward. Given the increase in use of such contractors, the true nature of U.S. involvement in Afghanistan cannot be determined without knowing what these mercenaries will be doing.