Pew 6/11 on Afghanistan withdrawal
On the eve of Obama's speech to the nation, what do the American people say about an Afghanistan troop withdrawal? Get out ASAP. From
Pew:
As President Obama prepares to announce his policy for drawing down U.S. forces in Afghanistan, the percentage of Americans who favor removing the troops as soon as possible has reached an all-time high in Pew Research Center surveys.
The context, of course, is that this is the eve of Obama's address to the nation tonight at 8 PM ET on his plans for troop withdrawals.
And the reason for the spike? Obama got Osama.
The proportion favoring a quick withdrawal of U.S. forces has increased by eight points since last month (from 48%), immediately after the killing of Osama bin Laden. A year ago, just 40% favored removing the troops as soon as possible, while 53% favored keeping them in Afghanistan until the situation stabilized.
An important point to consider in this partisan election season is who is the support coming from? As it happens, indies and Demcorats both want out, and
Public views war as a success, expects failure afterward
even Republicans are coming around.
Two-thirds of Democrats (67%) now say troops should be removed as soon as possible, up from 43% a year ago. A majority (57%) of independents also support immediate troop withdrawal, an increase of 15 points from last year.
Republican support for removing U.S. troops as soon as possible has risen 12 points since last June. At that time, 65% of Republicans favored keeping U.S. forces in Afghanistan until the situation is stabilized while 31% favored removing them as soon as possible. In the current survey, 53% support keeping the troops there and 43% favor their withdrawal.
Over the past year, support for withdrawing the troops has doubled among Republicans and GOP-leaning independents who agree with the Tea Party. A year ago only 21% favored immediate troop withdrawal; that has risen to 42% currently.
This is part of the reason John McCain and Lindsay Graham are so flummoxed. McCain and Graham are yesterday's news, swimming upstream as their immovable positions are
swept away by a rising tide of isolationism.
But here's the strange thing. The killing of bin Laden has to be seen as a key for success, becasue though military intervention is seen as the right thing to have done, and we are seen as "winning", the public thinks the central government will ultimately fail (see table).
So what does winning really mean?
To my mind, this may be another not-so-subtle example of how the bin Laden bounce hasn't gone away, it's just become part of the prism that filters everything we see.