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You read that headline right.

Bloomberg poll, June 17-20
Bloomberg poll, June 17-20

Other stories about the new Bloomberg poll will (appropriately) highlight Obama's indifferent showing and the country's economic angst, but I want to start with this question for context:

Thinking ahead to the election in 2012, which worries you more: (Read items. Rotate.)

 Republicans will gain control of both houses of Congress and the presidency and will implement their proposed cuts to Medicare, Medicaid and many other domestic programs 49

Democrats will retain the White House and at least one house of Congress and continue current spending policies 40

Not sure 11

Politico adds in their write-up:
Of independents surveyed, 47 percent say they are worried about Republican control while 37 percent say they are more concerned about a second Obama term.
Having said that, let's get to the bad news. From Bloomberg:
Two years after the official start of the recovery, the American people remain pessimistic about their current economic circumstances and longer-term prospects.

Fewer than a quarter of people see signs of improvement in the economy, and two-thirds say they believe the country is on the wrong track overall, according to a Bloomberg National Poll conducted June 17-20.

There are numbers here to suggest that with the past month's bad economic news on jobs and the economy, the GOP message of lower taxes and lower government spending has legs. Still:
Even so, the public remains ambivalent about the Republican Party’s economic stewardship. Asked to rate Obama’s vision for the economy against that of the Republicans, poll respondents favor the president’s by 40 percent to 37 percent, though that is a deterioration from a 12-percentage-point advantage Obama maintained three months ago.
No one can survive a deteriorating economy, but the question is whether it'll look more like stability than deterioration come 2012.

There are clear vulnerabilities for the WH highlighted in this poll, but as Charlie Cook reminds us in a related context:

None of this means Obama can’t win reelection.

It’s just that there are a lot of factors that will go into whether he gets his contract renewed, factors that go well beyond whom Republicans choose to be their nominee.

Fundamentals matter in politics; too often the focus is on personalities. The identity of the Republican nominee is obviously important, particularly if the race is as close as many expect.

But the fundamentals are what make the contest close or less competitive.

Yes, the GOP field is weak, no question about it. And by primary's end, it may even be that for the GOP by recent standards, they are unusually divided. Still, "it's the economy, stupid," same as it ever was, with some extra buffering built in for Obama because folks still blame Bush for getting us here, and fear what Republicans will do if they get the opportunity to occupy the White House.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Well, it look like (12+ / 0-)

    the GOP will be successful in tanking the economy so people eventually blame Obama and put them back in power.

    If the people don't understand the GOP version of American and how that means they'll have public services cut off, then they deserve the government they get.

  •  Bush?....Bush who?......I know no one named 'Bush' (3+ / 0-)
    •  The talking heads on TV like to point out that (5+ / 0-)

      no president has been re-elected with the unemployment rate above 7.2% since FDR.  In FDR's time people knew the Great Depression was Hoover's doing.

      Would it be fair to say that the worst Republican president on the economy since Hoover was...  oops, too late to blame him; Obama owns this economy now.

      Barack Obama in the Oval Office: There's a black man who knows his place.

      by Greasy Grant on Wed Jun 22, 2011 at 09:32:03 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yeah, DemfromCT buried the lead (6+ / 0-)
        By a 44 percent to 34 percent margin, Americans say they believe they are worse off [now] than when President Barack Obama took office in early 2009

        But the poll also found that Obama is marginally more trusted to lead going forward, so he should...lead going forward, and stop trying to convince people that he got the country out of a ditch. People know he didn't.

        •  Many are worse off, but as you point (3+ / 0-)

          out, Obama is marginally more trusted to lead going forward.

          He needs to convince those who are worse off are because of Bush and Rs, and then we are on a trajectory to get better.  If The Presdient does that, he wins.  If not, I don't see any ground game or financial advantage making the difference.

          That's not too bad, considering everything.  It's Obama's to win.  In other words, Obama can lose it, but Rs cannot win it.  

          Obama has to sell folks that it has beeen getting better slowly and will get better.  

          CitizenX: "If the republicans were in charge GM & Chrysler would be dead and Osama bin Laden would be alive."

          by TomP on Wed Jun 22, 2011 at 09:41:29 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  The difference is that FDR was constantly (4+ / 0-)

        and visibly acting to end unemployment.

        The current administration promises to get around to the topic one of these days, but -- fear not! When that day finally does roll around, jobs will get a laser-like focus.

        It'll probably be easy: nobody outside of DC will have jobs.

        LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

        by dinotrac on Wed Jun 22, 2011 at 10:02:08 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  People know this economy is Bush's doing (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        The Nose, Hirodog, wsexson

        as this NBC/Wall Street Journal poll from last week showed, "64% said President Barack Obama was "not really" or "only somewhat" responsible for the country's current economic conditions."

        The problem is that conditions today have not visibly improved since President Obama has taken office - unemployment today is higher than it was when he took office.  By contrast by this point in Roosevelt's presidency the unemployment rate had dropped by 7 percentage points from 25 percent to 18 percent.  

        Now I know that the economy was still hurtling off a cliff when Obama took office and it took several months for his policies to take effect, whereas the economy had already been in Depression for several years and had pretty much hit rock bottom by the time Roosevelt took office.  Nevertheless, Obama's policies have now had nearly two full years to make things better, and while the economy is growing and jobs are being added, the pace of this growth has been so anemic and the economy still sucks quite badly.

        Again, by comparison the economy grew at a double-digit pace for three of Roosevelt's first four years in office, and the unemployment rate dropped by nearly a third from the time he took office (and that's not counting people with WPA jobs, who were not counted as being among the employed; had they been, the unemployment rate would've been more like 9 - 10 percent).

        In short, Obama's problem is not that he has failed to convince people that Bush is to blame.  The people get that.  Rather it is that the people don't think Obama has made things any better.

        "I used to try to get things done by saying `please'. That didn't work and now I'm a dynamiter. I dynamite `em out of my path." - Huey Long

        by puakev on Wed Jun 22, 2011 at 10:08:56 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  It's worse: Greg sargent reports that (16+ / 0-)

    People have bought into Republican BS about deficits, and the "confidence fairy" and that "government causes uncertainty".

    Read it here.

    * Fifty-five percent of Americans think that spending cuts and tax cuts will give businesses more confidence to hire. Only 17 percent think government should spend more to stimulate the economy, and only another 17 percent think we should maintain current spending levels.

    * Sixty-five percent say that a major reason for the economy remaining in the toilet is because the large federal deficit makes the economy “unstable.”

    * Fifty-two percent think a major reason for our economic doldrums is that “uncertainty” created by government regulations and taxes is harming hiring.

    * Only 35 percent think a major reason for the economic doldrums is that spending cuts hurts jobs.

    "Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity." --M. L. King "You can't fix stupid" --Ron White

    by zenbassoon on Wed Jun 22, 2011 at 09:27:10 AM PDT

  •  The good cop/bad cop routine is losing it's edge (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    radical simplicity, terabthia2

    the corporations need to step up their game.

  •  obama can still salvage his presidency (6+ / 0-)

    but he will have to totally change his approach to the office

    and i see no sign of that

    he just keeps digging deeper

    i really hope he announces a real withdrawal tonight

    otherwise ...

    bad wars, bad economy and presidential weakness is the tirfecta for wh failure

  •  All Obama has to do is win Florida (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MikeTheLiberal

    and carry the traditional Democratic states. Florida is where the game begins and ends next year.

    Virginia, North Carolina and some of the other swing states are going to be hard to win in this economy. I know the president is going for a big map, but with Citizens United on the horizon its going to be tough outmatching a very negative message on the economy.

    Its Florida or bust. I like our chances overall.

    •  He's actually polling well in VA and NC (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wishingwell, Matt Z

      I believe. I could see him winning VA, NC, and FL, but not winning OH again.

      •  on OH (0+ / 0-)
        Obama unpopular but leads in Ohio

        Our newest poll in Ohio epitomizes the current state of the Presidential race. Barack Obama's not really all that popular. But he's in a good position for reelection right now because the Republican field is even more unpopular. It means that Obama's current horse race leads are tenuous if the GOP does end up with a candidate who sets the world on fire, but it's far from inevitable that's going to happen.

        http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/...

        "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

        by Greg Dworkin on Wed Jun 22, 2011 at 09:53:19 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  And with Gov Scott trying his best to destroy (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      terabthia2, The Nose

      Florida and becomes more and more extreme, that can only Help Obama, same with Ohio.  

      I could be wrong, hard to tell this early. But the President can afford to lose some states he won before as he would have to lose a helluva lot of states he got last time to lose.

      As there are other combinations that also give him a win as he won NV, CO, NM, IA..some states Kerry did not win in addition to VA, IN, NC, FL, OH.

      So he does have a lot of different ways to win and all sorts of combos will do it.

    •  Unemployment in Florida is (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      radical simplicity

      even worse than the national average.

      •  Apparently (0+ / 0-)

        though, the news is overall favorable- ish to Dems in swing states (I'm really surprised that Ohio has a employment rate below the national average.)

        According to a state-by-state analysis conducted by Matt McDonald, a partner at the GOP-aligned Hamilton Place Strategies, the unemployment rate outpaced the national average in only four swing states last month: Florida, Michigan, Nevada and North Carolina. ... Those four states will account for 66 electoral votes in 2012. Both parties are likely to target 10 states that have unemployment rates below the national average — Colorado, Iowa, Indiana, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. Those states have a total of 106 electoral votes.

        http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

    •  Good thing Jeb Bush will most likely not run (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      david mizner

      this time.  He could beat Obama in FL and other places too and with a Mexican-born wife and speaking fluent Spanish he'd cut into the Latino vote big time.

      The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt. Bertrand Russell

      by accumbens on Wed Jun 22, 2011 at 09:38:38 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Jeb Bush needs a vote he won't get (0+ / 0-)

        That one is Terry Schiavo. His political career sank with his support of her parents, and her autopsy.

        •  It was a watershed moment for Republicans in (0+ / 0-)

          Congress - especially the Senate - as well.  I'd wonder though how much weight it would carry today.

          The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt. Bertrand Russell

          by accumbens on Wed Jun 22, 2011 at 10:47:08 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Please. His name is Bush. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            The Nose

            There is NO WAY the country votes for another Bush a mere 4 years from the previous disaster. Jeb knows this; he is not stupid (unlike his brother).  In 8 years, yeah, maybe.  I doubt he wants to inherit this shitty economy either, nor face Floridians who are pissed at the Republican Party of FL and Rick Scott.

    •  I think you're expecting a lot of Lex Luthor (0+ / 0-)

      Possible, though.

  •  excellent analysis (4+ / 0-)

    and if obama is still doing relatively well against the gop, despite the stagnating economy, imagine if the economy actually were recovering.

    one quibble with cook: i don't expect the election to be close. if there is antipathy toward the republicans now, imagine after people get closer looks. imagine obama debating any of them.

    The cold passion for truth hunts in no pack. -Robinson Jeffers

    by Laurence Lewis on Wed Jun 22, 2011 at 09:32:04 AM PDT

    •  Sadly, the economy is not going to recover (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Brooke In Seattle, wsexson

      At least not in a way that Joe Average voter will recognize.

      In terms of ordinary people on the street, I see a frighteningly rightward trend - even among long-term Democrats. People are moving on from desolation to anger. And in an angry land, the language of hate wins.

      I see more people either staying home or voting third party, splitting the vote, and leaving the ultimate outcome to who better motivates the base. Unfortunately, I don't see Obama doing that.

      •  obama can still turn it around (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        radical simplicity

        but he will have to completely reinvent himself

        from conciliator to fighter

        he can do it, and in fact, he would probably be very successful since he is a briiiant and passionate speaker

        as he was during the campaign

        the only hope i see if someone obama respects and trusts tells him that he has gone off the rails and that compromise-at-any-cost has to end today

        before the budget deal

        joe biden, your country needs you

    •  what also helps is Obama basically had an (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MikeTheLiberal

      electoral college blowout win...so he has a lot of ways to win.  

      Hell Electoral College wise, he would have to lose a ton of states he won to lose.  

    •  I suspect you're going to have to imagine it (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      radical simplicity

      Seriously, if unemployment's up near 10% you don't expect a close election?

    •  I don't share that quibble. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Brooke In Seattle

      Surely you remember Democratic glee at the prospect of intellectual heavyweight Al Gore debating a guy who couldn't utter an extemporaneous sentence without botching the syntax or making a major factual misstatement?  My fellow grad students and I threw parties for the debates and made bingo cards for the errors we thought Bush would make.    

      You've been fooled by April, and she's gone. . .

      by cardinal on Wed Jun 22, 2011 at 10:11:23 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  debates matter less than many people expect (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        cardinal

        it's annoying to have the media and talking heads call the wrong guy the winner, mind you, but they rarely change minds.

        "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

        by Greg Dworkin on Wed Jun 22, 2011 at 10:45:05 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yep, exactly. Which is why I (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          DemFromCT

          worry when folks assume that Obama can "out-debate" his opponent, resulting in a tangible electoral effect.  

          Obama was seen as having won all three debates in 2008.  Pundits tended to spin it as being a result of his superior rhetorical skills, but there's something to be said for having the easier case to make, something we can't count on in 2012.  And again, there's no evidence anyone changed their minds.

          You've been fooled by April, and she's gone. . .

          by cardinal on Wed Jun 22, 2011 at 11:08:43 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  funny thing is (and I was blogging then) (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            cardinal

            Brownstein, Matthews and many of the talking heads said McCain was the winner, and we argued here that the insta-polls shwed the opposite.

            In the end the public said Obama won despite what the media said, because the public saw what it wanted in Obama.

            "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

            by Greg Dworkin on Wed Jun 22, 2011 at 01:12:36 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Oh yeah, I had forgotten about (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              DemFromCT

              that twist.  If debates don't matter much for public opinion, it's at least reassuring to know that pundit spin of debates really, really doesn't matter.

              You've been fooled by April, and she's gone. . .

              by cardinal on Wed Jun 22, 2011 at 01:16:22 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

  •  Just a slight tangent: (4+ / 0-)

    Here's what happens when you let 'job creators' retain more of their own money:

    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/...

    Barack Obama in the Oval Office: There's a black man who knows his place.

    by Greasy Grant on Wed Jun 22, 2011 at 09:34:17 AM PDT

  •  At the rate Obama'g going it won't get much better (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wbgonne, PaulMunison

    economically. He's a lucky man the Repubs can't come up with anyone reasonable to run against him.  He was lucky to have run against McCain and lucky to have run against Keyes for Senate.  Obama will go down in history as a lucky candidate.

    The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt. Bertrand Russell

    by accumbens on Wed Jun 22, 2011 at 09:34:35 AM PDT

  •  bipartisan (2+ / 0-)

    While Republicans bash the president, he tries to pal up to them and never blatantly criticizes them.  The polling is amazing given this scenario --  at the least, Obama should be publicly scolding Rs for not passing a new debt ceiling, and not proposing any jobs bills.  He should warn the voters that this congress will recreate the last recession they caused.  Wouldn't hurt to add that corporate profits have risen while employment has not--not what the Rs said would--and will--happen.

    Apres Bush, le deluge.

    by melvynny on Wed Jun 22, 2011 at 09:34:42 AM PDT

  •  Obama's overall approval at 49-44 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    radical simplicity

    isnt bad either. I think there is a bin laden "bounce" still there. That wont be enough to win an election, but I dont think you can dismiss the effects the bin laden raid has on Obama's approval either.

    •  if he doesn't announce a real withdrawal tonight (0+ / 0-)

      that bin laden bump is going to become a mountain of shit that falls on his head

    •  I Am Glad You Mentioned This (0+ / 0-)

      The article glosses over this most important of facts...Obama is still at almost majority level approval despite the economic pessimism, and disatisfaction with Libya, budget deficits, Afghanistan and Iraq.

      It is a function of his personal appeal and people not fully blaming him.  He will need both of these factors to win next year if there is continued weakness in the economy next year.

      Obama's best bet is too do the following:

      1) Cut a long term deficit reduction deal now that will remove the debate from the top of the news for next year.  Any flack he might get from left or right will lessen once a campaign between him and an actual GOP nominee starts.

      2) Reveal a real drawdown plan for Afghanistan tonight.

      3) Complete the Iraq troop withdrawal on schedule (later this year)

      4) Conclude Libya operations.

      5) Focus on Jobs and come up with a jobs agenda for the 2012.

      •  I agree with everyone of your points (0+ / 0-)

        Raising the debt ceiling needs to get done. If he can get a deal done, it will give him a boost politically, and he can essentially check that box, so to speak. If the GOP nominee tries to talk about deficit reduction, he can just point to that deal and move on.

        •  Yep (0+ / 0-)

          The media is having a field day with the debt limit drama.  If a long term deal is done then he gets credit for another successful bipartisan compromise on a real issue...our national deficit and debt.  

          Also the "certainty" that the markets and businesses need will be there....maybe they will start hiring some people.

  •  A lot of people are being hurt by the GOP's econom (2+ / 0-)

    And more than that, they know it was GOP policies that caused the hurt.

    And the GOP is being very careless about the kind of crazy things they are willing to do to advance their agenda.  That's not going unnoticed to the usually low-information voter.

    Despite all the issues with the economy and Obama's perceived lack of initiative on jobs, the GOP is flat-out being SCARY.  And all we have to do is keep pointing out how scary they are, and that we do not have to make up scary things for them to do -- they provide their own material.

    This thing is rapidly getting out of anyone's control.  If the GOP thinks they can semi-collapse the world's economy to do themselves an electoral favor, they are only showing how totally clueless they are to the entire political process.

    Just in case you forgot today: REPUBLICANS VOTED TO END MEDICARE. AND THEY'LL DO IT AGAIN.

    by slippytoad on Wed Jun 22, 2011 at 09:44:56 AM PDT

  •  We are kidding ourselves (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wbgonne, Mike RinRI

    With this economy, we are toast.  I appreciate the optimism, but how about some realism.  Only 30% of the respondents in this poll said they were voting for Obama, thats the number that should concern us.

    •  there is still time to turn it around (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      The Nose

      but it has to start yesterday

      no more gop-lite

      full-out dem populist

      get those walking shoes out, president obama, and head out to madison

      and tell those nj pols that attacking teachers and cops won't solve their problems

      raise taxes on the rich NO MATTER WHAT

      recognize that gop and its plutocrat owners are not going to help and call them out, directly and repeatedly, as the corrupt frauds they are

      ditch the conciliator-in-chief act and become commander-in-chief

      or at least fake like george-the-worst

      oh, and last thing: treat your friends better than your enemies

    •  These numbers don't lie (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wbgonne

      Things are terrible!  The republicans have clearly convinced Americans that Obama may not be responsible but is doing nothing to stop the bleeding and is making the problem worse.  Thanks to Dems buying into the whole "deficit is the problem" bullshit the republicans are probably pissing themselves over  how well that message has worked.  Congressional Dems and the President have nothing to show as far as reducing unemployment goes.  The republicans can keep spewing their bullshit because there's no counter argument.  Why oh why can't we get better Democrats?

  •  Gas prices and oil prices have (4+ / 0-)

    continued to drop since the Bin Laden killing.  The Fed is more likely to be right about the final quarter of economic growth than the pessimists.

    However, I think that progressive leaning voters want something more in the way of a new economic agenda focused on direct investment in the types of jobs that generate multiplier effects and job creation.  Right now the environment in DC is like 2005 when the country had completely turned against the war but no one in DC was hearing it.

    Right now, the country has completely rejected austerity and tax cuts for the rich and instead want a real commitment to smart Keynesian economics, but no one in DC is hearing them.

    Obama understands the issue but like the health care debate he is getting too bogged down in DC negotiations over phony issues like the debt limit instead of acting like he doesn't care about DC and going out and advocating for the positions which are largely captured in his budget.  They want him to argue for an activitst government.  Gore was sort of signaling the same thing re: climate change.  Obama can win this thing in a landslide despite a disappointing recovery if he argues for what he really believes is the right economic policy without regard to what the GOP and conservadems will permit him to do through the legislative process.

    Alternative rock with something to say: http://www.myspace.com/globalshakedown

    by khyber900 on Wed Jun 22, 2011 at 09:58:36 AM PDT

  •  The "which worries you more" questions (0+ / 0-)

    are not asking quite the same thing.  I wonder what the numbers would look like if they did?

  •  The real story is that nobody feels very (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wbgonne, Brooke In Seattle

    good about anybody in charge.

    No wonder, giving the compunction of those in DC to shit on the rest of us.

    LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

    by dinotrac on Wed Jun 22, 2011 at 10:00:06 AM PDT

    •  now that's truth (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      dinotrac

      congress has the lowest ratings ever.

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Wed Jun 22, 2011 at 10:05:24 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  OT -- but very interesting. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        The Nose

        Current Scientific American has a nice article on mining health records to do CER.

        Cool part for me is that they stated some possible ways around restrictions on using such findings for Medicare, and...
        it was like a light going on.

        The approach they suggested was that payouts for Medicare could be based on the cost effective treatment. The example was a couple of drugs used for age-related macular degeneration, one costing $50 and the other $2000.

        Put no restriction on which drug to use, but set the payment for the cost effective one.

        Makes me think of my situation: I finally (whew!) was able to get health insurance -- with a deductible you can drive a truck through.  The interesting part is that I was able to get separate plans for major illness or injury that would cover the difference very cheaply.

        So....

        Imagine a class of insurance policies -- and I don't care if they are private or public for the purpose at hands -- that cover treatment more than procedures, and will pay the amount required for effective treatment regardless of treatment option chosen.

        So, if you want to choose a heart-bypass (more expense and surprise! less likely to be effective) over an angioplasty, you can do it, but you've got to make up the difference between the cost-effective treatment and the less effective alternative, whether by supplemental insurance or writing your own check.

        Appeals to me because it answers "death panel" accusations:" Sure, you want that, pay for it. No problem." without being coercive.  If you pay for a $60,000 treatment, you can still get $60,000 worth of treatment towards the $80,000 treatment. You just need to make up the difference.

        LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

        by dinotrac on Wed Jun 22, 2011 at 10:48:51 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  The good news about your bad news (4+ / 0-)

    is that it's way too early for macroeconomic assessments to affect the presidential race.  Still, Cook's caution is dead-on correct.  All of the complaints about a "weak Republican field" are silly.  They only need one nominee -- one who has no obvious liabilities that would prevent the race from being a referendum on Obama -- and not to destroy themselves in the primary.  If I were a Republican ideologue, I'd be afraid of Romney -- what the hell does stand for anyhow?  Which side of my pet issue will he be on this year?  But, if he emerges mostly intact, then the relative strength or weakness of the field means absolutely nothing in the general election.

    You've been fooled by April, and she's gone. . .

    by cardinal on Wed Jun 22, 2011 at 10:06:18 AM PDT

    •  and if Romney isn't the one....they're oiling up (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      cardinal

      someone in the backroom.....An American Idol.

      •  agreed. But please tell (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        skillet, Brooke In Seattle, The Nose

        me it's not Perry.  As much as I'd love to get rid of him as governor -- something that apparently won't happen in my lifetime unless he leaves for higher office -- I can't bear the thought of Democrats nationally sharing the current Texas Democratic lament: "in retrospect, George W. Bush looks pretty darn good."

        You've been fooled by April, and she's gone. . .

        by cardinal on Wed Jun 22, 2011 at 10:14:28 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Hiding in the bushes (0+ / 0-)

        It's Jeb Bush, but he won't run until 2016. Whoever is nominated in 2012 will merely be a sacrificial lamb.

        ...the banks and corporations that will grow up around [the banks] will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered.-Thomas Jefferson

        by shoeless on Wed Jun 22, 2011 at 11:08:04 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  I think that's missing a huge dynamic (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      The Nose

      including how hard people work for the coandidate. That's what 'weak' really means. and that's what gallup is trying to get at with their intensity scores.

      want a concrete example that didn't happen (but almost did)? Mccain picks lieberman instead of Palin. it almost happened and if it had, McCain's innate weakness would have been exposed. The activists would have walked out of the converntion, literally, on their own nominee.

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Wed Jun 22, 2011 at 10:48:47 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  GOP Overreach is scaring the sh*t out of the (3+ / 0-)

    American People.

    This may counterbalance the economy.

    Of course, it'd be better if the Admin looked like it was trying to do something.

    "Reason is six-sevenths of treason," said one of his neighbors. "Intelligence is what the enemy uses," said another.

    by Misterpuff on Wed Jun 22, 2011 at 10:17:27 AM PDT

  •  Thank God for the Teabaggers!!! (0+ / 0-)
    •  Right, because now the Dems don't have to do (0+ / 0-)

      anything constructive. Just stand there and appear more or less sane. Thats great. So if Obama wins, his 'mandate' will be to keep doing pretty much nothing.

      I'd much rather see a fire breathing right wing populist run against him. Maybe that would finally remind him who he is supposed to be working for.

      How far to the right do the Dems have to move before you stop calling them Dems?

      by Diebold Hacker on Wed Jun 22, 2011 at 12:46:05 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  He'd still just be all talk to get reelected and (0+ / 0-)

        then back to not really representing my progressive interests once in office :(

      •  i've thought about that (0+ / 0-)

        my fear is that an ultra-righty gop candidate will make obama move even further right, trying to be reasonable and compromising and splitting the difference and so forth

        indeed, that is the most benign explanation for obama chasing the batshit crazy gop in congress as they moved ever more right

        so, for that reason, i hope the gop nomimates a "moderate" like huntsman or romney

        since they aren't ultra-ideologues obama won't give so much away when he "compromises"

        in theory, anyway

        of course, the wh is pretty sure that a gop crazy can't win so they are deperately hoping for just such a right wing loon to run against

        i still think romney will get it but, if romney flames out, then i think a firebreathing white knight is likely -- christie, i'd guess, maybe perry

        so the gop could go either way

        imho

  •  Perhaps voters can be motivated (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Dose o Reality

    by a message more targeted to reality:

    Hope For Change / Expect The Same

    As a hardcore Democrat, Obama has shaken my faith. Imagine what he's done for independents.

    by Johnathan Ivan on Wed Jun 22, 2011 at 10:20:20 AM PDT

  •  Their only goal (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    The Nose
       Republicans are sabotaging economic recovery efforts because it will help them win in 2012.

        Unfortunately the Republican in the House and Senate are driven by putting one man out of work -- President Obama.

        They want to play political games at the expense of getting this economy back on its feet. They believe a weak economy is there best chance of winning the next election. ~  Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin D-IL  said the day after Senate Republicans blocked an economic development bill that they have backed in the past.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

    We're a little older we've matured a bit but the fundamental project of delivering the American Dream is as urgent and as vital as ever. - Pres. Obama

    by anyname on Wed Jun 22, 2011 at 10:27:23 AM PDT

  •  Elections offer a finite choice. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    The Nose

    And the choice is not between Obama and an imaginary "better" candidate. It's between Obama and a party that is on the record in favor of killing Medicare, privatizing Social Security, blocking universal access to health care, more tax cuts for the rich, eliminating worker protections any kind, trashing our environment, denying women access to family planning options, cutting programs for poor women and children, etc.

    Ask progressives in WI if they will choose going forward at a seemingly glacial pace or going backwards in free-fall.

    "I've learned that people will forget what you said, people will forget what you did, but people will never forget how you made them feel." Maya Angelou

    by ahumbleopinion on Wed Jun 22, 2011 at 10:30:35 AM PDT

    •  Both parties are complicit in all of the above. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bryduck, wbgonne, wsexson

      And I'm not even sure we can be said to be moving "forward" at any pace at all. I see things falling apart faster and faster, while the people at the controls dither and bicker about bullshit.

      How far to the right do the Dems have to move before you stop calling them Dems?

      by Diebold Hacker on Wed Jun 22, 2011 at 12:49:05 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  It is often said (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wbgonne

    that a crisis is too good a thing to waste. Well, we wasted ours. But what of disasters? Are they too good to waste also? If it were the case that Obama lost the election and we went back to a fully Republican Congress, that would be a disaster because every Republican prescription is poisoned Tylenol. That should worry the heck out of every Democrat because the times demand serious, radical transformation but we get a smiling, nice, friendly President unwilling and unable to be transformative. What does a second Obama term get us other than slow decline instead of rapid? At least, the public would finally see in all its awfulness the fullness of republican idiocy. But then what would we be left with? A mere corpse of a country? A kind of banana republic without the bananas?

  •  Scott Brown (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    The Nose

    Bad news for Scott in MA.    The Boston Globe found out that the huge amount of money at the end of his campaign came from the Koch Bother.    Scott had said that the money came from "the people of MA".   So he got caught telling a huge lie.

    Also, a lot of people in MA have figured out he's not what he said he was.

    The current Dems who are going up against him aren't too great.    I think a lot of Dems just expected that Brown would won again.   But now the Dems are looking for much better people to go up against him and there's still plenty of time.

    •  Look there first (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      The Nose

      By now, everyone should know to look at the Koch Bros. first, whenever a Republican suddenly comes up with a pile of cash.

      ...the banks and corporations that will grow up around [the banks] will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered.-Thomas Jefferson

      by shoeless on Wed Jun 22, 2011 at 11:05:14 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  The Koch’s Plot To Destroy Social Security (0+ / 0-)

    The Koch brothers have mounted a campaign to kill Social Security. Here’s their strategy and the results so far. [...]

    http://silverbuzzcafe.com/...

  •  Another Mixed Poll (Great Approval Though) (0+ / 0-)

    The new AP poll has the same bad numbers regarding Obama's handling of the economy, right track / wrong track, etc.  But like the Bloomberg poll....the bottomline number (Obama Approval) is actually very good considering all this economic pessimism.  He sits at 52% job approval!

    Pretty darn good if you ask me and puts to rest all this Obama is doomed nonsense.

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