MT-Sen: Tester still locked in a dead heat, says PPP
On the horserace front, it is a pretty quiet data week, probably the first of several, as we head into summer. There are more presidential approval polls to be had (the results are...well...basically what they have been for weeks), and the guy with the flattop to the right has new numbers that reinforce what we have long known: he has going to have to go all out to keep his seat in the U.S. Senate. Jon Tester looks like he is facing his second straight coin flip race in Montana.
We also have new presidential numbers in Oregon, while SUSA provides the first decent polling news for Tim Pawlenty since, quite possibly, his gubernatorial run in 2006.
And that's not all! Here are some other headlines to peruse as we put a shiny bow on the week that was in U.S. electoral politics:
- You may well not believe a poll out this week that has President Obama picking off eleven electoral votes absolutely no one projected in his column. But, then again, there may be good reason not to be believe that poll.
- Another House Democrat retires, though any "Dems in disarray!" story on this particular exit would be ridiculously incorrect.
- Are Democrats potentially competitive in a deep-red state's U.S. Senate seat? Why, yes. Yes, they are. Find out where, and with whom, a potentially unthinkable pickup appears to be possible.
All that and...well, you get the idea...with the weekend edition of the Daily Kos Elections Digest.
THE RACE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE
NATIONAL POLLS: Head-to-head national trial heats were in relatively short supply this week. Indeed, the only head-to-head national poll to touch on was one we missed last week, from the crew at Fairleigh Dickinson. FDU's poll, which was conducted during the first week of June, had Obama well in front of the field, with Mitt Romney in his now-accustomed position of best in class (down 45-39 to Obama). Meanwhile, the President fared considerably better against the balance of the field, with leads ranging from 19-27 points.
This week's numbers were less specific, and also considerably less positive, for the President. The latest Bloomberg poll showed that only 31% of likely voters were committed to supporting the President next year, while 40% were definitely voting for "another candidate". This means that President Obama would need to snag two-thirds of the "on the fence" voters to pull together a majority. Given his approval rating in this Bloomberg poll (49/44), he certainly has a solid shot of doing so, but a -9 net on the re-elect question is not necessarily an enviable position heading into the summer.
The newest incarnation of the AP/GfK poll (PDF) also took a look at the President's re-elect. The numbers were nearly at parity, with 48% inclined to support the President's re-election and 47% leaning against. The President's job approval in that survey was 52/47.
In other data from the week, the President's job approval ranged from 46/45 (Pew) to one of the lowest numbers of the year at 42/52 (ARG).
IN THE STATES: Let's start our look at the states with a poll that I expressed some serious skepticism about earlier this week. In Tennessee, a new poll from Vanderbilt University gave President Obama a lead over the entire Republican field. Mitt Romney was within the MoE (37-35), but the rest of the field trailed by margins ranging from 9-14 points. Given the huge number of undecideds, it is pretty obvious that leaners were not pressed at all. The president's job approval here was underwater (42/52), but that in itself doesn't mean that the GOP should be leading here. Lord knows, there is ample evidence of Obama leading in places where his job approval numbers are flagging.
Speaking of that, our polling pals at PPP closed the week in Florida, heading into the Sunshine State for the first time in a few months. As they have throughout the year, they found two recurring themes: the President with middling approval numbers (48/49, in this case), and still leading all GOP comers. As is often the case, Mitt Romney came the closest, trailing the President by four (47-43). The other GOP contenders fell from 8-12 points behind Obama in the Sunshine State.
The same was true in blue-tinted Oregon, where the President's approval numbers were still fairly soft (49/45). Despite that, the natural terrain of the state, coupled with enormous weakness among the GOP candidates, left Obama with leads ranging from 12-22 points against the field. Romney came the closest, but even he couldn't draw within single digits, nor could he hold Obama under 50% (he leads Romney 50-38).
If there was any good news for the GOP at the statewide level this week, it might have been in the most recent SurveyUSA poll out of Minnesota. Once again, SUSA tests the hometown GOP options here (Pawlenty and Bachmann) against the President. Unlike the previous poll, however, Pawlenty at least pulled even with the President (46-46), while Bachmann trailed by a bit less than she did before (she still trails 53-39). The poll has some real flaws: the trial heat was asked last, and the sample's even mix of Republicans and Democrats seemed a tiny bit optimistic for the R's (the 2008 exits were D+4). Pawlenty has to be happy about the general election trial heat, but he is probably less enthused to see that, even in his home state, more voters were inclined to declare Mitt Romney as the "best nominee" for the GOP (though he did lead among Republicans).
THE RACE FOR THE U.S. SENATE
THE POLLS: Montana has been at the top of the target list for both parties this cycle, since just about everyone has assumed that freshman Senator Jon Tester (D) and conservative Congressman Denny Rehberg (R) would be a coin flip. The latest poll from PPP confirmed it, with Rehberg holding the slightest of leads (47-45) over Tester. Rehberg's razor-thin lead was clearly a result of terrain: Tester actually held higher favorability ratings than his GOP foe.
A potential loss of a Dem seat in Montana could be offset, however, in (of all places!) Utah. No, that is not a typo. If Democratic Congressman Jim Matheson decides to make a Senate bid, he starts out no worse than even money against either incumbent Republican Senator Orrin Hatch or insurgent GOP candidate Jason Chaffetz. That was the verdict of a new poll from Dan Jones and Associates, which had Matheson dead even with Hatch (47-47) and down one to Chaffetz (46-45). Matheson is not yet a declared candidate, but could be drawn to a Senate bid if, as expected, the GOP-led Utah state legislature monkeys around with his Salt Lake-based district.
A Republican pollster (Magellan Strategies) also sees another potential pickup for the Democrats in Nevada. Their poll had Democratic Rep. Shelley Berkley up on newly appointed GOP Senator Dean Heller by two points (46-44). They also tested the other Democratic challenger (businessman Byron Georgiou), but found him badly trailing Heller (46-33). Lest someone suspect that this poll is too optimistic, it should be noted that the President's approval rating in this survey was downright lousy (41/53), for a state he carried by double digits in 2008.
One non-trial heat poll worth noting this week, out of California: the new Field poll tested re-elect numbers for Dianne Feinstein. The numbers, surprisingly, are pretty damned weak. She gets a 43% re-elect, with 39% "not inclined" to support her. Of course, you can't beat someone with no one, and there is no sign that the GOP is going to tap its (not very deep) bench for a legitimate prospect.
ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL:
- Tragically, the Democratic blogosphere (especially in the Midwest) will not have Ken Blackwell to kick around anymore in the great state of Ohio. Blackwell, on Friday, decided that he would not make a bid to challenge Sherrod Brown for the Democrat's Senate seat in the Buckeye State, arguably robbing the GOP of their best (or, at least, best known) prospect in the battle to wrest the seat away from the freshman Democrat.
- One of my favorite mysteries of the 2012 campaign cycle looks like, unfortunately, it will remain a mystery. A week after Michigan Republicans were apparently close to locking down a former Detroit Red Wings hockey star to challenge Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow, it turns out that the GOP failed to lure the mystery skater into the field. The annoying part (besides for the GOP, who is still fishing for a candidate here): we still don't know who the Hell the GOP was trying to recruit!
- Queue the (potentially) baseless speculation out of Arizona: Astronaut Mark Kelly, best known for (a) multiple missions aboard the Space Shuttle and (b) being married to convalescing Congresswoman Gabby Giffords, announced his retirement from NASA this Fall. This had led some in the press corps to breathlessly speculate about a political future for Kelly, perhaps even a bid for the open U.S. Senate seat in the Grand Canyon State
THE BATTLE FOR THE STATE HOUSE
THE POLLS: One open seat state house that has not been mentioned much this cycle has been the race in Montana. PPP polled the state for the first time, and found the Democrats reasonably competitive against GOP frontrunner Rick Hill (the former Congressman) in the state. Lt. Governor John Bohlinger (a former Republican) trailed Hill by a single point (40-39), while state AG Steve Bullock ran behind Hill by just two points (39-37).
Last week, we noted that in North Carolina, Democratic Gov. Bev Perdue is starting to close what was a sizeable gap with Republican challenger Pat McCrory. Also in that poll lay a pretty amazing revelation: McCrory could get teabagged in a GOP primary. 44% of GOP voters in the PPP poll wanted a "more conservative" candidate in the field, while 34% were satisfied with McCrory. Keep some popcorn at the ready, just in case.
ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL:
- In New Hampshire, it is pretty clear that you cannot stop Ovide Lamontagne, nor can you really contain him. The oft-mentioned perennial candidate is back, this time trying to consolidate support for another gubernatorial bid. Lamontagne burst on the Granite State political stage back in 1996, when he got obliterated by Jeanne Sheheen for the governorship.
- In a gubernatorial election in the nearer future, Democratic Governor Steve Beshear is obliterating his GOP challenger financially in Kentucky. At the conclusion of the primary, Beshear had a nice little 30-to-1 cash on hand edge over Republican David Williams. This led Williams ally and longtime GOP figure Larry Forgy to rather audaciously lose his shit, blaming Beshear's edge on "Jewish money."
- It's on in Washington: Jay Inslee surprised absolutely no one by letting it be known that he would be declaring for the now open gubernatorial race in the Evergreen State. His likely GOP challenger will be state AG Rob McKenna.
THE BATTLE FOR THE U.S. HOUSE
THE POLLS: Not much in the way of polling here. There were a couple of national generic ballots to report. The weekly Daily Kos/SEIU State of the Nation poll had the Democrats up four over the GOP (47-43) on the question of whether they would prefer to see more Democrats or more Republicans in the Congress. Meanwhile (perhaps predictably), the House of Ras sees it differently: they have the GOP up on the Democrats by six points (43-37).
ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL:
- It has been rumored for weeks, if not entire cycles: Democratic Rep. Lynn Woolsey elected to retire from her seat in CA-06, with an official announcement coming early next week. Woolsey, first elected to the House in 1992, had long been rumored as a potential retirement possibility, and the dramatic shifting of her CD in the independent remap of the state seemed to seal the deal.
- One half of the field in the special election in NV-02 was set as NN11 was drawing to a close late last weekend. Mark Amodei, the former Republican state party chairman in Nevada, was tabbed by his party to be the standard bearer in the September special election. It might be a symbolic gesture, of course, since the Democratic Secretary of State is appealing a judge's ruling to allow the parties to anoint the candidates for the special election, rather than engaging in an all-candidate "battle royale" election for the seat. Democrats, when they gather to pick their candidate, are widely expected to give the nod to state treasurer Kate Marshall.
- One race that saw a lot of action this week was the open seat battle in the lone House seat in Montana, where state Senator Kim Gillan announced a Congressional bid midweek. She joined Missoula city councilman Dave Strohmeier, who also announced in the past week. Already in: state legislator Franke Wilmer.