Hector Balderas
Public Policy Polling (6/23-26, New Mexico voters,
2/4-6 in parens):
Martin Heinrich (D): 47 (50)
Heather Wilson (R): 42 (39)
Undecided: 11 (11)
Martin Heinrich (D): 45
John Sanchez (R): 39
Undecided: 16
Martin Heinrich (D): 46
Greg Sowards (R): 34
Undecided: 20
Hector Balderas (D): 45
Heather Wilson (R): 39
Undecided: 16
Hector Balderas (D): 39
John Sanchez (R): 35
Undecided: 25
Hector Balderas (D): 42
Greg Sowards (R): 28
Undecided: 30
(MoE: ±3.6%)
The New Mexico Senate race didn't start out high on anyone's watch list this cycle, with five-term Democrat Jeff Bingaman (currently 67) not considered a likely retiree and, in a February PPP poll, way ahead of potential GOP opponents. Unfortunately, his subsequent retirement scrambled things a lot, but today's return engagement by PPP generally confirms the conventional wisdom that has already solidified around the race: it's definitely gotten more competitive, but the Democrats still have an advantage here given the lean of the state and a solid bench. Barring some sort of personal implosion unique to this race, it would have to be a pretty bad all-around election night for the Dems to lose this one, where this would be icing on the cake of an already-lost Senate.
The major candidates in the race all perform uniformly, despite big variations in how well-known they are: Rep. Martin Heinrich (36/32 favorables) and state Auditor Hector Balderas (the least known of the bigs, at 22/17) both poll in the mid-40s for the Dems, ex-Rep. Heather Wilson (the best-known, at 38/45) and Lt. Governor John Sanchez (23/28) both poll in the low-40s/high-30s for the GOP, good for spreads in favor of the Dems of 4 to 6 points. At this point, we're mostly seeing party line voting, with results consistent with the Dems' registration advantage here; these results may just continue on up to Election Day, or maybe someone will make a breakthrough with independents and change the dynamic. (Tea Party-affiliated businessman Greg Sowards loses by much wider margins thanks to his name rec deficit; his favorables are only 7/17.)
The one trendline that can be salvaged from PPP's February poll is of a Heinrich/Wilson race; the gap has narrowed a bit, from an 11-point lead for Heinrich then. Wilson gets a bit more crossover support than you might expect, which is what's keeping her somewhat competitive, picking up 21% of Dems against Heinrich (while Heinrich gets only 13% of the GOP vote). While that's better news for Wilson, that 45% unfavorable rate is a red flag for her; there's not much room left for her to grow.
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