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Senate:

NJ-Sen: For the fourth time in three years, John Crowley has gotten close to seeking statewide office, only to bail at the last moment. He was talked up extensively in 2009 for a possible gubernatorial run, and in 2008, he almost decided to run against Sen. Frank Lautenberg — twice. Now the Republican biotech exec has decided he wants no part of a race against Sen. Bob Menendez. What's particularly odd about this latest scene in Crowley's Hamlet act is the fact that he left his post as chairman and CEO of Amicus Therapeutics in April, which augured toward a run — but now he's going to go back to his old jobs at the company.

OH-Sen: Republican Treasurer Josh Mandel, who has been spending a lot of time pretending like he's not running for Senate, picked up his second big endorsement from a major conservative interest in recent days: The Club for Growth announced they're backing him, following Jim DeMint's earlier move.

TX-Sen: GOP Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, who's taken his sweet time (and can afford to) about announcing a run for higher office, looks like he might be finally getting ready to take the plunge. In an email to supporters, Dewhurst wrote that after the legislative session, "we will have exciting news to share with you about what we will do next." The special session ended yesterday, so presumably he plans to say something soon.

WI-Sen: Republican freshman Ron Johnson has been reeeeal cute about this whole "deferred compensation" scheme he rigged up. RoJo spent $9 million of his own money in his successful Senate race last year… and then got a $10 million paycheck from his former plastics company, Pacur, just before getting sworn in earlier this year. Pressed on the odd timing and similar amounts by TPM, Johnson refused to give an answer. If it turns out that this arrangement was just a charade to make Johnson's bank account whole, it could constitute an illegal corporate donation. I suspect Johnson can stonewall this one into oblivion, given how toothless Congressional ethics investigations tend to be, but the amounts here are so eye-popping that maybe there's hope.

Gubernatorial:

FL-Gov: Pollster, pollster, when you call — whose the suckiest one of all? Why, Rick Scott, of course! PPP shows him moving out of a tie with John Kasich and into first place all by himself as the most unpopular governor in these United States. Not only is his 33-59 job approval rating atrocious, but he'd get absolutely splattered in a rematch against Alex Sink (57-35) and similarly obliterated by Charlie Crist hypothetically running as a Democrat (56-34). Incidentally, voters think Charlie should fully come out as a Dem by a 43-26 margin.

NJ-Gov: A new Bloomberg poll (possibly their first-ever in the state?) shows the Great Joisey Hope, Chris Christie, with a crummy 44-51 job approval rating.

NY-Gov, NY-Sen: Democrats Andrew Cuomo and Kirsten Gillibrand match their highest-ever job approval ratings in Quinnipiac's latest: 64-19 for the governor and 54-22 for the senator.

VA-Gov: Another Quinnipiac poll, and this one in a brand-new state for the outfit. For the very first time, Quinnipiac is testing the waters in Virginia, and finds that GOP Gov. Bob McDonnell sports an impressive 55-26 job approval rating. But as longtime Swingnut DCCylone points out, Quinnipiac's crosstabs show black voters approving of McDonnell by a hard-to-fathom 50-25 margin. PPP, by contrast, had it at 31-48 among blacks (PDF).

PA-Gov, Philly Mayor: Wealthy healthcare exec Tom Knox said he won't challenge Philadelphia Mayor Michael Nutter as an independent this year, but is interested in running for governor in 2014.

WV-Gov: Acting Dem Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin outraised Republican Bill Maloney in the most recent reporting period, $180K to $74K. However, the wealthy Maloney also loaned his campaign $150K (on top of $500K he loaned himself in the primary), leaving him with $88K cash-on-hand to Tomblin's $29K.

House:

FL-25: Democrat Annette Taddeo will reportedly announce a run against ethically dubious freshman GOPer David Rivera some time "in the next 30 to 60 days," according to Dave Catanese. Taddeo ran against Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen in the 18th CD back in 2008; while she lost by a sizable margin (16 points), she raised well ($1.2 million), despite being undermined by Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (then a top DCCC official in charge of the Red to Blue program).

CA-37: Dem Rep. Laura Richardson has long had a large share of ethical troubles, and the new draft maps put a big squeeze on her in redistricting, with primaries looming wherever she runs. So maybe she won't: CREW has published new documents which show Richardson forcing her congressional staffers to do political work on her behalf, about as big a no-no as you can come up with on Capitol Hill. I have to wonder what planet Richardson was residing on when she required her employees to attend a fundraiser on her behalf.

IL-16: Winnebago County Board member Frank Gambino says he's interested in running for Congress — and would apparently run in a GOP primary against veteran Rep. Don Manzullo to do so. Before you write this off as a hopeless bid, know that Gambino defeated Tim Simms in a primary for his current post, who was a former state rep and state senator.

NC-11: Dem Rep. Heath Shuler, a prime Republican target in redistricting, is reportedly considering a job as athletic director for his alma mater, the University of Tennessee, instead of seeking re-election. Shuler of course was a star quarterback for the Vols in the early `90s.

NV-02: The NRCC is out with an ad in the special election, which I guess has to mean they're concerned about their chances of holding the seat. But I think it's a pretty good spot, hitting Treasurer Kate Marshall on an issue we'll see a lot of demagoguery about this cycle: the debt limit. Non-insane, responsible people who don't want to induce an economic meltdown obviously know that the debt ceiling has to be raised, but attacking high spending and the scary-sounding $14 trillion national debt is an easy move for nihilistic Republicans to make. For good measure, the NRCC throws in some China fear-mongering in at the end, too. No word on the size of the buy.

NY-09: Republican Councilman Eric Ulrich, who is probably the GOP's preferred candidate in the special election, says he's "50-50 right now" as to whether he wants to seek the seat, but the rest of his comments sound decidedly more hesitant (click through for them). Ulrich would have a free shot at this race, since his council seat isn't up until 2013.

NY-25: Onondaga County legislator Tom Buckel, who had been considering a run, says he won't seek the Democratic nomination to take on freshman Rep. Ann Marie Buerkle. Meanwhile, the guy Buerkle beat last year, Dan Maffei, just joined a lobbying firm… but swears he won't do any lobbying and says he's still interested in seeking his old seat back. In prior statements, Maffei sounded like he was leaning toward a run, and is now saying that he'll decide "this summer."

OK-02: Yesterday morning, ex-Rep. Brad Carson emailed me to let me know that his plans have changed and he will not be seeking his old seat back in the wake of Dan Boren's retirement. Fortunately, Democrats have a strong bench here despite the red hue of the district, and there are several other possible candidates, including ex-state Sen. Ken Corn (who previously said he's "very likely" to run) and state Rep. Ben Sherrer. The Hotline also mentions state Sen. Josh Breechen as a possible GOP candidate.

OR-01: It's good news… for David Wu! No, seriously. The embattled Democratic congressman, facing a stiff primary challenge from Labor Commissioner Brad Avakian, just got a lifeline from Rep. Brad Witt, who now looks very likely to join the fray. This makes it much more likely that Wu, in the style of Indiana Rep. Dan Burton, will survive his primary thanks to a split field. Polling by Avakian (PDF) suggests that Wu could score around 40% and has a floor of about 30 — good enough to pull a Burton.

Other Races:

IN-SoS: Indiana's Recount Commission rejected a complaint that Charlie White, the Republican Secretary of State, should be removed from office pending a trial later this summer for voter fraud. The decision can be appealed, however, and if White loses in court, he'd automatically have to resign.

Redistricting Roundup:

Michigan: It's about to get ugly out there. Michigan's Republican-led state Senate approved the House's legislative and congressional redistricting plans without any changes, sending the maps on to GOP Gov. Rick Snyder for his signature. At least all the Democrats in the Senate voted against the federal map (as did one Republican, interestingly), but three Dems pathetically voted in favor of the legislative plans.

South Carolina: Wow, things have gone seriously haywire in the Palmetto State. As Gina Smith of the Rock Hill Herald puts it: "A coalition of rebel Republicans and minority party Democrats in the state Senate approved a surprise redistricting plan Tuesday that creates a new 7th District that is centered in Beaufort County, running from Williamsburg to Jasper counties." This map (warning: large PDF) is completely different from the plan (see it here) recently passed by the state House, which, like the Senate, is also in Republican hands.

The Senate map is pretty clearly just a stalling tactic for Democrats, since it doesn't actually accomplish their aim of creating a second black-majority seat (or even come close). But if they can run out the clock, Dems can force this directly to court, which seems preferable to being forced to try overturning a Republican-passed gerrymander on VRA grounds. Given the remarkable collapse in Republican discipline here, that could well happen. Yet again, the redistricting process proves itself to be utterly bizarro!

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Thu Jun 30, 2011 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Perry in 2nd. (4+ / 0-)

    A new Fox News poll of the national Republican primary field has Perry in 2nd, but with little upside (hardly anyone names him as their second choice, whereas Bachmann gets much of that).

    http://www.foxnews.com/...

    Romney, as usual, is mired in low double digits. I really don't understand why anyone thinks of him as the front runner. This isn't a contest with a Snow White, they're all the f*ing Seven Dwarfs.

    21, Nice Calm Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood), TX-23 (School), TX-10 (Home); SSP: wmayes

    by wwmiv on Thu Jun 30, 2011 at 05:17:09 AM PDT

  •  Not a subscriber to Roll Call.. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Seneca Doane, MichaelNY

    You say this is a big no-no for Richardson, are there any prior examples of other Reps. doing this?

    •  I can't think of any off the top of my head (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Odysseus, Seneca Doane, MichaelNY

      But I would not be at all surprised.

      Also, Richardson is corrupt for other reasons and needs to go. Google "Laura Richardson foreclosure" to see what I'm talking about.

      •  Richardson is a real piece of work (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Odysseus, Seneca Doane, MichaelNY

        The local paper, the Press-Telegram, has done enough articles on her to show that she is not fit to be a Congresswoman. I would think she would try to win the Compton-Carson seat where she would face Assm. Hall instead of having to face Rep. Sanchez and Sen. Lowenthal in Long Beach.

        I also hope that the Redistricting Commission moves my hometown back into the Long Beach district instead of being put in Napolitano's district. That personal loan with 18 percent interest that the Swingnuts linked to soured my opinion of her.

  •  Maine redistricting (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    I'm hearing elsewhere that a bill for a constitutional amendment to move future redistricting from 2023 and on to 2021 and on and to put the 2/3rds majority requirement for Congressional redistricting in the constitution has passed the legislature.

    However.

    Democrats didn't do anything to require a 2/3rds vote this year. There's some kind of bipartisan commission to draw maps, but the legislature doesn't have to use their maps. The bill had to pass by a 2/3rds margin, so they had to have supported it. Once again, Democrats prove themselves to be really good at this kind of political malpractice.

  •  MN-sen (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Not sure why my company is gaining so much political attention recently. But on Monday we played host to congressman Erik Paulsen. And next Tuesday, apparently we are also playing host to senator Amy Klobuchar.

  •  If the OR redistricting plan passes as written, (7+ / 0-)

    Witt potentially just cost us this seat.

    This entire situation is way out of control, and the party should have forced Wu to quit a long time ago. It's a sad day when Anthony Weiner can be forced out for sending a couple of pictures of his dick to some girl (not even underage) on the other side of the country, but David Wu can lie, cheat, steal, abuse painkillers, berate his staff for no reason until they all quit, and CRASH HIS CAR INTO SOMEONE ELSE'S THEN LIE ABOUT IT, all while pretending he's got everything under control and pigheadedly refusing to resign, without the leadership so much as saying boo.

    If Wu loses to a Republican, his political career is officially over (and good riddance), but it's certainly not going to make the already-long odds of retaking the House this cycle any easier.  Shame on Wu for being a selfish asshat, but shame on the guys running against him for putting themselves over the good of the party, and shame on the national leadership for not getting rid of Wu before he costs us the seat.

    •  it isnt just wu (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      tietack, Inoljt, MichaelNY

      Kennedy in Rhode Island had very similar bad-boy antics, and wasn't forced out til he chose not to run for reelection

    •  I haven't heard of a viable R getting in (0+ / 0-)

      While I hope Wu chooses to find another job, Wu has survived serious personal problems before (accusations of sexual assault) ref '04.

      While Bruce Starr has said no, he could change his mind.

      I wonder if one of the Asian ambassadorships is open....

      "I hope; therefore, I can live."
      For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

      by tietack on Thu Jun 30, 2011 at 07:12:22 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I would be extremely disappointed with Obama (10+ / 0-)

        If he appointed Wu for an ambassadorship. This actually important stuff, and Wu is no more fit to be an ambassador than a congressman. Of course, I'd prefer it if most all ambassadors were career diplomats, but I'll take not having them be batshit insane.

        •  I disagree on multiple levels (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike

          1) With some exceptions, ambassadors haven't been so important since the invention of the telephone.

          2) In some Asian countries, the appointment of Wu would be a sign of respect.

          3) Now that Wu is in treatment, I think he's plenty capable.

          4) Some of the things that have given Wu trouble in the House, e.g. not pushing a lot of stuff, would actually be a benefit as an ambassador in some countries.

          "I hope; therefore, I can live."
          For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

          by tietack on Thu Jun 30, 2011 at 08:01:02 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  A sign of respect.... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            until they saw his work ethic. The guy has been a backbencher in the House for 15 years without any accomplishments whatsoever to his name. He was actually one of the lowest-ranking  Democrats in the chamber with his level of seniority back in 2007, below several REPUBLICANS. The only Dems below him who had served for a similar amount of time were Langevin (RI-02) and Snyder (AR-02). Most of the others were either freshmen elected in 2006 or backbenchers elected in 2002, many of whom have since retired.

            I think merely being of Asian ancestry isn't enough, and would be a mockery, if anything - Asians respect work ethic, and Wu is a disgrace in that respect.

        •  Exactly (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          dc1000, MichaelNY

          Some of these are really, really important jobs, but many of them are little more than ceremonial -- but even in those, David Wu probably is not the person I'd want representing my country abroad!

          Much more importantly, I do hope he's getting the mental health help he needs.  I'm not at all saying that people with mental illnesses or addictions can't effectively serve in Congress -- but getting themselves healthy has to come first.  If he's taking effective steps in that direction, he then needs to go make that case to the voters in his district.

        •  Yeah, and he wont do that (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Dont see anything in their past to suggest they would do that. Yes, many of the ambassador appointments have been donors, as in his past administration, but I dont see anything that was, "Well, he is going to lose re-election, let's put him in our cabinet."

      •  Heh. (0+ / 0-)

        The only ambassador ship Wu can handle is the ambassadorship to Qo'Nos.  

        In 2004, the GOP pushed the "Wu is a sexual predator" meme too aggressively and it backfired on Goli Ameri. Now, I think a lot of people have legitimate questions about his fitness to serve, and he's facing potentially much less favorable district lines.

        And I think Wu is more at risk from a well-funded first timer than from Starr. When I lived in OR-01, Starr was my state senator and I really can't say I was impressed. He maybe would appeal to the declining "real Oregonian" rural demographic, but has very little suburban appeal and has been in state office for too long to be credible to the teabaggers.  

    •  Witt, like Commissioner Avakian... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      tietack

      Will need labor on his side, because that's his cachet.

      I think Avakian has obviously failed to clear the field. But Bonamici would be a much bigger fish than Witt, and I do think she could beat Rep. Wu even with a split field. She could announce as early as next week as well.

      Independent, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Thu Jun 30, 2011 at 11:01:42 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Could someone explain to me the problems with Wu? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      tietack, MichaelNY

      Ideally, using links?  I've noted two "scandals" about him:

      (1) the "Vulcans/Klingons" floor speech he made, which was fine, as it was making fun of Condi Rice et al. styling themselves as Vulcans.

      (2) that he dressed up as a tiger at a party -- which, if I recall correctly, was celebrating the new "Year of the Tiger" under the Chinese calendar, and so that should not be an embarrassment either.

      I'm willing to acknowledge a legitimate scandal, but that's two "embarrassments" out of two that don't actually turn out to be embarrassing, so I'd need a higher standard of proof before I buy that he's not just getting hatcheted by enemies.

      Repeat: I'm not defending Wu; he's not much on my radar.  I'm saying: "show me."

      To protect the Latino "community of interest" in redistricting Orange County, Santa Ana, eastern Garden Grove, and central Anaheim must be in the same legislative districts.

      by Seneca Doane on Thu Jun 30, 2011 at 03:36:37 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  i suggest you (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        tietack

        PM SaoMagnifico if this comment isn't answered by him in the next 24 hours.

        18, D, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college next year). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. Put your age and CD here :) -.5.38, -3.23

        by jncca on Thu Jun 30, 2011 at 03:48:37 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  The tiger costume isn't the problem. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        The problem is that he has admitted mental illness and prescription drug abuse.  He impersonated his children in emails to his staff.  I don't mean he acted like them, I mean he emailed his staffers pretending to be his children, telling them to lay off of him about his substance abuse.  That's in addition to other odd behavior.

        There have been rumors that not everything has been divulged.  So many of his staff wouldn't have left if it had been just a silly costume.

        He was already damaged from having an attempted rape exposed during the 2004 campaign.  It was from when he was in college.

        In addition, he ranks poorly in effectiveness and has for a long time, so many are just dissatisfied with him.

        more info

        "Intolerance is something which belongs to the religions we have rejected." - J.J. Rousseau -6.38, -4.15

        by James Allen on Thu Jun 30, 2011 at 04:13:36 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  "Admitted mental illness" can be depression (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, tietack

          Lincoln suffered from that.  It's not disqualifying.

          Prescription drug abuse: certainly a problem.  Usually not disqualifying either, if treated.

          E-mailing staffers pretending to be his children.  Presuming that's true, it's weird and shifty.  It doesn't seem that different from things I hear go on all the time, though, so  I'm not sure that it's a disqualifying scandal.

          "Rumors that not everything has been divulged" can be directed towards anyone and should be discounted.

          Staff leaving -- this can result from threats from other Dems saying "you don't want to be associated with him for the good of your career."  That in turn can occur for valid reasons -- or invalid ones.

          "Attempted rape" charge.  Serious, but statutes of limitations exist for a reason.  It may just be hard to get at the truth at this point.  Certainly, for example, our 42nd President survived much worse.

          In effective in Congress: well, that's a reason to want to get rid of him -- but don't call it a "scandal."  People are screaming "scandal"; whether there is a scandal is what I've questioned.

          I hold no brief for Wu, by the way, but I don't like non-scandal scandals.

          To protect the Latino "community of interest" in redistricting Orange County, Santa Ana, eastern Garden Grove, and central Anaheim must be in the same legislative districts.

          by Seneca Doane on Thu Jun 30, 2011 at 11:29:45 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  It's fine for a person to do these things. (0+ / 0-)

            He just shouldn't be a congressman anymore.  He's ineffective, which alone should make wanting him out valid.  He's also a bad candidate on account of these things, which makes me want someone else to win the nomination.  The state legislature made the district more competitive, so that should be a concern for partisan Democrats.

            "Intolerance is something which belongs to the religions we have rejected." - J.J. Rousseau -6.38, -4.15

            by James Allen on Fri Jul 01, 2011 at 01:24:32 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  The question is whether there's a "scandal" (0+ / 0-)

              which is what I keep hearing from critics of Wu; it's evident in discussions of his unfitness for any public role elsewhere in this section.  Being ineffective is not a "scandal."  I'm concerned that these charges amount to a hatchet job (and I hate those.)  This is not to accuse anyone here of directing or being complicit with such an attack, but this has at least some of the earmarks of one.

              To protect the Latino "community of interest" in redistricting Orange County, Santa Ana, eastern Garden Grove, and central Anaheim must be in the same legislative districts.

              by Seneca Doane on Fri Jul 01, 2011 at 11:10:40 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  The Oregonian uses any opportunity (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Seneca Doane, MichaelNY

                to try to get rid of him.  His colleagues want him replaced.  He's surely being persecuted.  But he also shouldn't be our nominee.

                "Intolerance is something which belongs to the religions we have rejected." - J.J. Rousseau -6.38, -4.15

                by James Allen on Fri Jul 01, 2011 at 11:23:35 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  That's fine. I'm happy to see that debate (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  about whether he should be the nominee.  I presume that there are others (besides Wu) who would disagree -- and I'd want to hear from them too.  But "not a good Representative" is a different argument than "he's scandal-ridden."

                  To protect the Latino "community of interest" in redistricting Orange County, Santa Ana, eastern Garden Grove, and central Anaheim must be in the same legislative districts.

                  by Seneca Doane on Fri Jul 01, 2011 at 12:46:48 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

      •  While SaoMagnifico is probably most up to speed (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        One place to start is Willamette Week, our local version of the LA Weekly -- and one of two news outlets to which Wu won't talk.

        The following link includes tags to all of their stories on Wu.

        http://wweek.com/...

        Problems started back in '04 based on accusations of sexual assault from his time at Stanford.

        Latest problems are based on mental issues, seemingly exacerbated by his divorce. The mental issues led to

        a) No campaign effort in the runup to election day 2010
        b) Numerous staffers leaving

        May be related to this particular crash http://www.wweek.com/... where he claimed to have fallen asleep at the wheel, but significant doubts exist.

        Personally, I think he's OK now that he's under treatment, but he has underperformed relative to others in member ratings, and some are eager to take advantage in what is a moderately safe D seat, even with the proposed bi-partisan redistricting plan.

        "I hope; therefore, I can live."
        For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

        by tietack on Thu Jun 30, 2011 at 04:14:08 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  My hope is that people who assert that David Wu (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, tietack

          is being sunk by scandals can explain it without directing someone who asks about it to links, because if it's a scandal it should be able to be summarized reasonably clearly.

          Sexual assault issue addressed above.

          Mental issues.  Well, these things happen.

          Divorce exacerbating same.  Ditto.

          No 2010 campaign effort.  Interesting.  And yet he won.  Was it stupid?

          Numerous staffers leaving.  Addressed above.

          Crash where he says he fell asleep at the wheel.  Could be very bad -- but "significant doubts exist" hardly proves it.

          OK under treatment.  Well, then!  Like many people, eh?

          Has underperformed.  Addressed above.  Good reason to want him out -- but don't call it a "scandal."

          To protect the Latino "community of interest" in redistricting Orange County, Santa Ana, eastern Garden Grove, and central Anaheim must be in the same legislative districts.

          by Seneca Doane on Thu Jun 30, 2011 at 11:34:28 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Thank you for remaining objective (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Christopher Walker, Seneca Doane

            While the problems have existed for some undefined number of years, I do believe that he's OK now.

            Furthermore, even the most recent problems have apparently been known by other Ds for some years. Only recently has --one-- D official (a Portland city councilman) called for his resignation.

            I do think there are Ds in OR-01 who would be more effective in Congress. Furthermore, I do think the "drip drip drip" of news on Wu could conceivably put the D+7 or 5 (pre/post redistricting) OR-01 at risk.

            I've never personally used the word "scandal," and am the person here at DKE who has suggested that someone find a different job for him, such as Ambassador.

            Nevertheless, I do believe in hearing the doubters, which is why I linked to Willamette Week's series of articles on Wu. They've perhaps the best documented set of doubts on Wu's tenure.

            "I hope; therefore, I can live."
            For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

            by tietack on Fri Jul 01, 2011 at 07:31:48 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  Yeah, James Allen and tietack... (4+ / 0-)

        Pretty much covered it.

        There was also an incident last year in which he was a speaker at a Washington County Democratic Party event and he ended up giving a really vitriolic, aggressive speech that a number of attendees and organizers told press they felt was over-the-top and inappropriate for the venue, but I don't really know the details of it beyond that.

        Oh, and there was an incident a few years ago where he apparently went weirdly catatonic during an important vote and didn't respond to any of his colleagues trying to shake him out of his stupor until just a minute or two before the voting period ended. I don't think his office ever issued a formal explanation for that, and IIRC, the Democratic leadership was still not quite over it as of the time the staff exodus story broke several months back.

        Independent, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

        by SaoMagnifico on Thu Jun 30, 2011 at 04:39:35 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Please see my replies to the two comments above (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          tietack

          I'm giving you feedback from someone outside of the group that has been attending to Wu, about whom I have no particular opinion other than I like a Dem being in the seat and I think that people should be treated fairly.  I hope that this feedback will be appreciated.

          First let me address the two "scandals" that you add.

          Gave a speech at a Dem Party event that was called vitriolic, aggressive, over-the-top, and inappropriate for the venue.  Well, the guy has political enemies within the party, from what I discern, and these are the sorts of things that political enemies say, especially given anonymity.

          Went catatonic during a vote.  I addressed the mental health issues and substance abuse issues above, either of which could explain that.  Yes, it's a concern -- but not necessarily a "scandal."  My question is: is he healthy now?

          We all have our "radar."  Right now my radar has me doubting that there is anything here that clearly rises to the level of "scandal."  Lots of smoke, little discernible fire.  There's lots of reason to want to get rid of him based on his ineffectiveness and such, but that is not a matter of scandal and it is frankly pretty ugly to conflate them.

          You have people elsewhere in this comments section saying the likes of "yeesh, I certainly wouldn't want to see David Yu appointed an Ambassador, representing the U.S.!"  That's a powerful condemnation.  Yet, if he has had treatable (and now treated!) mental health issues and substance abuse problems (perhaps resulting from them), why would one hate to see him appointed as an Ambassador even if he has a weak legislative record?

          This looks, from my outsider's perspective, like a lot of people have convinced themselves that there's more conclusively damning information here that I see.  A lot of it is compatible with "he's weird, he's had problems, and ambitious people in the party who would like his position have started a loud and effective whisper campaign against him."  If the latter, then frankly he has my sympathy.  If the former, y'all should build your case well enough that it can support the snarky assertions being made hereabouts.

          To protect the Latino "community of interest" in redistricting Orange County, Santa Ana, eastern Garden Grove, and central Anaheim must be in the same legislative districts.

          by Seneca Doane on Thu Jun 30, 2011 at 11:46:26 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Halperin on Romney on Obama in Pennsylvania (5+ / 0-)

    No, it's not the sort of threesome that would induce mass vomiting. Instead, what I am referring to is this, from Mark Halperin, summarized by Political Wire:

    On the same day President Obama will attend two DNC fundraisers in Pennsylania, The Hill reports Mitt Romney will "visit the same plant, Allentown Metal Works, that Obama visited in December of 2009 to tout his $787 billion stimulus."

    "Obama talked up the plant in a subsequent Saturday radio address, too, but the 100-year-old plant eventually closed down this January after the stimulus dollars it had been promised didn't come through."

    Mark Halperin: "This is yet another super-smart move by the frontrunner, and it is a four-fer. It keeps up the Romney strategy of focusing on 'Obama versus Romney' (rather than 'Romney versus the Republican field'), thereby elevating Romney. It keeps the focus on the economy, which is almost all Romney wants to talk about. It cues up Romney for the general election in a now-Blue-former-battleground state (Obama probably can't win re-election without the Keystone State.). And it allows Romney to get a press conference under his belt with few national reporters present, and (very likely) few questions (and certainly few answers, regardless of the questions!) focused on anything but the economy -- and not, say, health care."

    There's also the ad, which might not be devastating (I'm the wrong person to ask about this stuff, of course), isn't at all bad.

    As much as Halperin seems to be talking up Romney, he has a point. Mitt is playing this one pretty well, focusing squarely on where Obama is likely to be weakest. But I have to wonder how effective it will be in the end. Is there any way to trace job losses in the state back to Bain Capital when Romney was its head, for instance? What about the stimulus funds that didn't come through for whatever reason--why didn't they come through? Or most of all, WHAT IS MITT ROMNEY'S PLAN BESIDES TAX CUTS FOR THE RICH? I think this needs to be ask each and every day.

    This is why I want President Obama to skip the vacation to Martha's vineyard and spend time touring the country to talk about jobs. It's time to put the Republicans on the defensive and place the blame squarely on them.

    •  Halperin is a dumbass unworthy of his paycheck (8+ / 0-)

      That said, yes Romney did a smart thing here, proving in the case of Halperin that even a broken clock is right twice a day.

      Ultimately Romney is showing good discipline, and the Obama campaign will do the same and pushback with just the sort of material you suggest in your questions.  But it's not time for Obama to push back daily on this crap anyway.  They smartly play the long game, and voters aren't paying attention to Romney's whereabouts or mutterings now.

      Ultimately Romney's focus on the economy is the only card the GOP can play, and that's what makes him smart to play it.  The Repubs have lost the culture war, whether they admit it or not, and it's quite clear today that on foreign policy most voters trust Obama with that 3:00 a.m. phone call far more than any of the Republicans who want his job.  

      Problem is, if the economy gets better, that card is gone.  But that's life, they gotta give it their best shot, and Romney is doing that.

      By the way, I'm going to post a comment later on Gallup's daily track on unemployment and job creation, which has some promising stuff in recent weeks.

      43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Thu Jun 30, 2011 at 08:02:44 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  That's kind of what I figured. (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCCyclone, Odysseus, MichaelNY

        I would be astonished if there aren't a couple of really anxious, obsessive people working for the tracking every comment he makes, waiting to pounce when given the word. But as you indicated, why make this into a bigger story than it needs to be? Why elevate him beyond where he should be right now?

        As far as economic news goes, it's been kind of a mediocre few weeks, and that might be charitable. This, however, gives me a little hope, assuming it's something legitimate:

        Borrowing by small U.S. businesses rose at a record pace in May, data released by PayNet Inc on Thursday showed, a sign that economic growth is poised to pick up in coming months.

        Overall, the trend is most important. I don't want to minimize the pain and suffering those who can't find jobs are experiencing, but politically speaking, one or two bad months now isn't the end of the world, if the overall trend is in the right direction and/or he can point to legitimate progress. While 200,000 jobs per month, for instance, isn't enough, it's something. Combine this with the easiest thing in the world to do, which is calling for an additional tax cut--because when has calling for a tax cut ever, ever lost a politician an election?--and he should be fine. That is, if it appears.

        One thing I'd really like to see is a plan that reforms our tax system. Not to get too into policy, but a progressive consumption tax hits all of the right notes politically, as it does help with saving and investment. And if the numbers can be worked out so that there's a tax cut for the middle class, I'd hope the President gives a good hard look at such a proposal. Revenues will need to go up eventually, but whether it's to stimulate the economy or to save his ass politically, it might be a good move. Announcing it now would give him a leg up on the Republicans.

    •  Halperin Suspended from MSNBC (6+ / 0-)

      For calling Obama a "dick."  

      Statement Here

      Video here

    •  Romney is coasting.... (3+ / 0-)

      He's taking his eye off the prize--which is the nomination.  He certainly doesn't feel threatened by Bachmann.  He better feel threatened by Perry if he gets in.  That man does not believe in Reagan's eleventh commandment and will beat the crap out of Romney, rhetorically speaking.

      Sure, Romney's making some good moves now, preplanned and calculated.  But, he's under no pressure now (or is at least acting like it).  You'd think that he'd have learned his lesson by now... He did the same thing in 2008--coasted, thought the nomination was his and then McCain upended him.

      GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

      by LordMike on Thu Jun 30, 2011 at 10:36:11 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I just wonder when someone will start to beat him (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        up in a very unpleasant way, rhetorically speaking--someone who isn't Rick Perry, that is. I don't pay that much attention to the back and forth with this stuff, so perhaps I missed something, but I don't see many people attacking him directly. I don't imagine that will last, but when exactly will it change?

        •  He's taking some shots from everyone (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Who isn't attacking Romney from time to time?  They all are.

          But no one is doing it on a sustained basis.  And they shouldn't...yet.  Because it's too soon.  They're waiting until voters are really tuning in en masse.

          The 30-second attack ads will start no sooner than after Thanksgiving, and if the RNC's preferred calendar holds maybe not until January.  Most of Romney's opponents don't have much money and can't buy airtime until the final 4 weeks anyway.

          43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Thu Jun 30, 2011 at 12:24:34 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Good comment, Romney is taking a risk indeed (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        itskevin, LordMike, MichaelNY

        I hadn't thought about that until earlier today when Chuck Todd and his crew pointed it out on First Read, but yeah, Romney is trying to bracket Obama for the general already, sacrificing some time in early caucus and primary states.  His path to the nomination is certainly the least difficult it's ever been, but he badly understates how little his GOP brethren really want him as their nominee.

        If Bachmann were to game out for herself what mistakes she needs Romney to make to give Bachmann an opening, what he's doing is exactly one of them.  She wants him to take a break from campaigning for the GOP nomination, including refusing to take her as a serious threat, while she sneaks up on him.

        43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Thu Jun 30, 2011 at 12:28:04 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Romney is a lot of things (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jncca, MichaelNY

          Stupid isn't one of them. He tried to be everything to everybody in 2008 and perhaps he's realized his mistkaes. He knows he has one path to the presidency and to the nomination. His path to the nomination is electability, he's not going to be a Tea Party or Social Conservative favorite but there favorites can't win. And his path to the presidency is a laser-focus on the economy.

          So while he could play to the primary crowd its not going to do him any goo

  •  NV-02: NRCC hedging for ballot royale? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, MichaelNY

    I suspect the NRCC isn't worried too much about losing this seat in a one-on-one, but rather is hedging its bet in case the state Supreme Court reinstates ballot royale.  If it's a free-for-all then Marshall is no worse than a tossup to win, and they need to start now knocking her down.

    Agree it's a good ad.  The reality is that the debt ceiling isn't a spending mandate, that was done by the appropriation C.R. that prevented the shutdown.  Rather, the debt ceiling is simply a decision to go ahead and make the payments already owed under the appropriation act.  But ordinary people don't know this, and the NRCC's deception in this ad will work.

    The real question is how much do NV-02 voters care about this?  I do believe they care somewhat about federal spending, it's not either/or on voter concerns about jobs vs. spending as a lot of the left mistakenly seems to believe.  Voters care a lot more about jobs, yes, and cutting spending only hurts the recovery, but plenty of swing voters don't realize that and still care also about spending as a concern.  The median NV-02 voter is clearly to the right of the median American voter, so this ad could resonate.

    The DCCC won't play here, I'm sure, unless ballot royale is reinstated.  And if it is, I bet they play hard, at least behind the scenes at first and much later on the air.

    43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Thu Jun 30, 2011 at 07:16:43 AM PDT

  •  Frankly I hope that Alvin Brown (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    drobertson, drhoosierdem, jj32, MichaelNY

    the Mayor Elect of Jacksonville runs for Governor of California in 2014. He'd be a VERY strong statewide candidate as he'd be able to appeal to most Floridians. Governor Crist would get mocked as an opportunist and would only be able to serve one term if elected.

  •  Tim Pawlenty's Record of Fiscal Responsibility (8+ / 0-)

    This is a pretty hard hitting piece from Mother Jones (which, by the way, has been doing some great reporting lately). In particular, this passage stuck out:

    Beyond shifting funds around, Pawlenty's budget shell games relied on other tricks. For instance, Pawlenty's wonks used inflation-adjusted figures to calculate the government's projected revenues (to derive a higher figure), but they declined to use inflation projections to calculate future expenditures (which would also, of course, increase with inflation). The result was meaningless paper surpluses.

    How is this not illegal? Isn't this the sort of shit that gets you, oh, thrown in jail at a corporation, at least in theory?

    Anyway, this should prove to be good material for the Republicans to use against Pawlenty if he ever gets anywhere or for Obama to use against him if he's the nominee.

  •  That Q-poll in Virginia...... (5+ / 0-)

    McDonnell's black support wasn't even the biggest laugher in that poll.

    The biggest laugher was Cuccinelli's numbers:  49-31 job approval, including 40-33 with blacks, and 28% of Dems and 25% of liberals approving.  The guy is a polarizing extremist, he has not done anything to improve his image across party or ideological lines, and Q's numbers for him are absurd.

    PPP in March (they didn't survey him in May) had Cuccinelli at a credible 37-40 job approval, slightly underwater.  They had him at 15% with Dems, 4% with "very liberal" respondents, 11% with "somewhat liberal" respondents, and badly underwater at 19-53 with blacks.  Being here and knowing how Cuccinelli gets himself in the news for very conservative initiatives, those are the types of numbers you are going to see from any credible poll.

    I've long vacillated on live caller vs. robocall polling, and last year had been drifting toward viewing live caller as more reliable, but PPP continued its trend of proven accuracy in the midterms, and Q-poll really laid an egg here.

    43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Thu Jun 30, 2011 at 07:56:46 AM PDT

  •  PPP vs. Ari Fleischer (23+ / 0-)

    Ari: @ppppolls show O beating Perry in TX. With my next click, I will stop following them. Their polls are nonsense. D propoganda http://twitter.com/...

    PPP: We would stop following Ari Fleischer too but since his relevance peaked about 10 years ago I never did in the first place http://twitter.com/...

    Burn!

  •  WI-Sen: Ron Kind will decide after recalls (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    drhoosierdem, LordMike, MichaelNY

    http://dc.wispolitics.com/...

    The article should probably be retitled "Kind says decision will wait for Russ Feingold"...but the recalls will work too.

  •  OK-2 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Odysseus, MichaelNY

    Josh Brecheen is my state senator and he is certainly a fundamentalist conservative.

    My guess on the Republican side is George Faught, a state representative from Muskogee.

  •  NM-Sen (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Did PPP not poll the primaries, or did I just miss it? That was a huge part of the reason I wanted them to poll there.

  •  Quinnipiac had McCain with 20% of the black (0+ / 0-)

    vote in VA in September of 2008.

     I have a theory that because VA is home of so much of the conservative DC area think tanks and campaign machine, that many of these highly engaged voters outright lie about their race/ethnicity to scew polls. I can recall at least 8 VA polls that just don't make sense with similarly weird numbers for blacks. At the time there was a number of articles (google them) about the "reverse Bradley effect" to expalin this (blacks were excited about Obama but didn't want to seem lockstep in line to vote with him, yeah I never bough that one). Just a theory I have no proof....

    -1.63/ -1.49 "Speaking truth to power" (with snark of course)!

    by dopper0189 on Thu Jun 30, 2011 at 08:59:00 AM PDT

    •  When did Q ever poll Virginia before??? (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Inoljt, itskevin, LordMike, MichaelNY

      I don't remember Quinnipiac polling Virginia in 2008, or ever.  I don't think they did.  Perhaps you're remembering a different pollster?

      Q for years has done 6 states:  Connecticut; New York; New Jersey; Pennsylvania; Ohio; and Florida.

      And yes the black support for Republicans is always inflated everywhere in all polling.  It always orbits 20%, when on election day it's actually half that.

      In truth most public pollsters struggle mightily in getting accurate samples of nonwhite voters.  It's even worse in trying to sample Hispanics and Asians, but even with black voters who are more highly engaged and not as hard to reach as other minorities, pollsters have a hard time getting a good sample.

      43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Thu Jun 30, 2011 at 09:20:57 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  that is quite the assertion. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      People lying intentionally to skew polls? That is a bit of a reach

      •  In most states I would agree (0+ / 0-)

        but Virginia is a special case because of the conservative infrastructure there. Just like most states there is very little history of cross party interference in the other parties primaries, but in Michigan it's rampant (Jesse Jackson 1988, McCain Bush 2000, also up and down the ballot).

        Listen to CSpan and listen to how many black conservatives call from Virginia, far more than either population number of probability would dictate.

        In most states I would laugh at this assertion but I think conservatives in VA have both the means and motive to do this.

        -1.63/ -1.49 "Speaking truth to power" (with snark of course)!

        by dopper0189 on Sat Jul 02, 2011 at 09:43:23 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Romney's Fund Raising Comes Up Short? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, MichaelNY

    What's really kind of surprising, and also a little pathetic, is that he's actually behind where he was at this point in 2008. Check it out.

    It'd be a nice boost, at least psychologically, if Obama slightly exceeded his fund raising goals. And while part of me wants him to really rake in the dough ($100 million for this quarter, for instance) just to see the pained looks on Republicans' faces, I'm worried it would make some Democrats arrogant and over confident.

    •  Well, people might have been a little (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, Bob R Bobson, jncca, MichaelNY

      looser with their money four years ago than now...Still, anything with Mitt failing is pretty fun.

      25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

      by Xenocrypt on Thu Jun 30, 2011 at 09:10:50 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  But he has less of an excuse to fall behind, no? (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jj32, DCCyclone, MichaelNY

        Last time, wasn't he starting from scratch with all of the national fund raising networking? And wasn't he also competing with the likes of McCain and Giuliani, and to a lesser extent Thompson and Paul, who were sucking up a lot of dollars, in addition to even more small time candidates like Brownback and Hunter? Then there's inflation, but that's hardly his fault.

        Come to think of it, I need to throw down some money before the deadlines tonight. I wonder if I can still get that dinner with Obama.

    •  My personal goal for Obama... (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, Odysseus, itskevin, MichaelNY

      ...is that he'll have raised more in Q2 than all the GOP hopefuls combined.

      With Romney lagging, I think that's realistic.

      Keep in mind Romney claims to have raised $10-$20 million for some secondary vessel, a superPAC or some such thing, that is now allowed under campaign finance laws (Citizens United or otherwise?...I don't know).  So he'll claim $25-$35 million total.

      But Obama set a public goal of $60 million total between himself and the DNC, so that's comparable to Romney's claim.

      The big thing is that Obama is fast approaching a new goal of 475K donors for Q2, and even at just an average of $50 per donation that comes out to $22.5 million for Obama's personal reelection campaign alone.  If the average is $100, that's $45 million.  The DNC receipts all come from a small fraction of those people who are rich and can give tens of thousands a pop to the DNC.

      43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Thu Jun 30, 2011 at 09:17:58 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  This just points to Romney's biggest problem (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCCyclone, itskevin, MichaelNY

        Although he might be the most plausible Republican presidential candidate, he still suffers from a lack of enthusiasm with the Republican base, whereas Obama has basically kept his base support and possibly even increased it (the comments of some posters on Kos nonwithstanding)

        •  This is absolutely the biggest problem (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          he faces, yet for some reason, nobody is discussing it. It's entirely possible that him not being Obama could propel him to victory, but it's far from assured. It's much safer to have people want to elect you, and while I am sure there are many that wouldn't have a problem with him, he doesn't inspire the same passion that others do to their followers.

          I don't think this is likely to get any better for him as the months go on. Wasn't it in the last six weeks or so PPP discussed how a stunningly large number of Republican primary voters and voters in general were unfamiliar with his record, specifically on health care? I can't imagine this will go untouched in the primary. If it hurts him, it could prevent him from getting the nomination. But even if he does get it, it could prevent him from winning the general.

    •  Obama campaign likely to surpass their goal of (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, itskevin, MichaelNY

      475k donors. The original goal was 450k, and I was worried yesterday they might not make it. Instead, he saw a surge after the press conference, and they met it last night, and raised the goal. It currently stands at above 469k. They blew through their donations goal too. It was 550k, and I think they around 600k now. Dont know what this translates into as far as total dollars collected.

    •  Also, I think Obama is winning the expectations (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, askew, MichaelNY

      race. Romney's 10 million dollar day got a lot of news, while there has been a stream of stories about Obama struggling with Jewish donors, Wall Street donors, small dollar donors, etc. The narrative on Obama is that he excitement of 08 is gone, and that will be reflected in the fundraising.

    •  i would be winning to bet (0+ / 0-)

      Obama is under his total from the first half of 07. Remember, that was about 55421 million. Quite a steep sum of money for someone not facing a primary

      •  Bush raised 35 million in Q2 2003 (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        itskevin

        according to First Read. I'm assuming, like Obama's campaign, that was their first reported quarter of fundraising. Obama raised around the same in his first quarter in 2007, although he wasnt an incumbent. Anyway, I think 35 million is probably a good baseline.

      •  I wouldn't necessarily assume that (0+ / 0-)

        Obama has tallied 600K separate donations and over 475K distinct donors.

        If those 600K donations average just $50 each, that's $30 million.  If they average $100, that's $60 million, surpassing in just one quarter what they did over the first 2 quarters last time.  And a $100 average isn't implausible.

        43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Thu Jun 30, 2011 at 12:37:00 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  One more thing...... (0+ / 0-)

          I bet the Obama campaign numbers completely dwarf the DNC numbers.  The DNC numbers will be very good, but that money is coming exclusively from rich people at fundraisers that the Obamas and Joe Biden attend (I don't know that Jill Biden headlines any).  Probably 90% of those contributors are Obama-only, he's what drives people to give.

          43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Thu Jun 30, 2011 at 12:39:05 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  DNC numbers (0+ / 0-)

            While the DNC numbers will be driven primarily by donations from big money donors (maybe 90+%), they aren't entirely from fundraisers. The DNC is running a grassroots donor program with calls to small money donors asking for recurring contributions. This will give them a few (tens of?) thousands of dollars.

            •  Yeah, but that's not relevant to this discussion (0+ / 0-)

              Perhaps what I said is confusing, but my point was that the money Obama is raising from rich people that includes big DNC bucks is not the proper metric for setting expectations of Obama's Q2 numbers, because he is raising so much for the personal campaign from Obama-only donors.

              My point is that if Obama set a $60 million combined goal, I wouldn't expect he reports 20 for himself and 40 for the DNC.  Rather, I bet he raises 40-50 for himself, and 10-30 for the DNC.  Just rough ballpark guesses on the numbers themselves, but you see my point.

              43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Thu Jun 30, 2011 at 07:31:43 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  The Democrats aren't going to get (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, dc1000, DCCyclone, Nickers

      over-confident. They know the deck is stacked against them and will organize and fund-raise like crazy.

      President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

      by askew on Thu Jun 30, 2011 at 02:10:37 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Tom Knox may have money (0+ / 0-)

    but I suspect there may be other candidates for governor, who are better.

    •  Sestak, for one. n/t (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Flaming Liberal for Jesus

      23, Solid Liberal Democrat, DKE Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02 (home), IN-03 (birth), SC-03 (early childhood), IN-09 (college); Swingnut

      by HoosierD42 on Thu Jun 30, 2011 at 12:29:32 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Dunno about that (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        dc1000

        Maybe someone from Pennsylvania could refute me on this, but I wasn't impressed with Sestak's general election campaign last year.  His come from behind primary win was impressive, but then he somehow stalled out, allowing Toomey to build a substantial lead in the summer (and allowing the story of the alleged Obama primary-clearing job offer to fester for weeks didn't help.)

        In the last month or so Sestak's campaign finally seemed to really click and he closed the gap, but not quite enough.  Perhaps if he had kept more consistent momentum instead of allowing himself to fall well behind then he would have kept enough support to provide the extra point or two needed to win.  (To be fair, he did have to replenish his campaign treasury after the primary, but it seemed to me that Toomey pretty much had the momentum and media to himself for too long, enabling him to convince voters he was somehow moderate.)

  •  WI-Sen: On deferred comp (0+ / 0-)

    Usually how deferred compensation works is an employee defers salary he earned in a calender year to a later date to defer the taxes he would owe on the money until the date he actually recieves it.

    So if an employee earns $200,000 he might only take $100,000 in pay this year and defer the other $100,000 for a later date. The company would then pay the employee interest on the defered comp. So a $100,000 deferred today might pay the employee $200,000 10 years from now.

    So if Johnson was just getting the money he earned in previous years that he deferred paid to him now before he enters the Senate then its really not a big deal.

    Chances are in his deferred comp package there was some sort of provision to pay out the deferred comp upon retirement from the company which he did to become a US Senator.

    As for the $10 million deferred comp matching the $9 million out of pocket he spent it only adds up if you neglect including the taxes Johnson owns on the $10 million. He has to pay 35% federal tax, 7.75% WI State income tax and 1.45% Medicare Tax so in reality he's probably only keeping $5.58 million of it.

    Besides if he really wanted to be a crook he could have just loaned himself the $9 million he spent and then gone out and raised that money from private donors, PACs and Special Interest groups and paid himself back with interest!

    I dont think there is much of a story here.

    Help raise money for disaster relief efforts by searching the web & give the profits from your web searches to charity instead of Google! Click here for Search+Win with Music for Relief

    by izengabe on Thu Jun 30, 2011 at 10:44:50 AM PDT

  •  Obama campaign surpasses new donor goal (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    askew, itskevin, LordMike, KingofSpades

    They have passed their revised 475k donor goal, and are well over their revised 575k donations goals(over 600k). As I said, I dont know what this translate into in terms of the main fundraising number, but hopefully it is a good one. I think Obama campaign is being underestimated, as I noted above, and here is another negative story front page of Yahoo.com.  

    •  Such negative stories (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      won't mean anything unless the predictions come true.

      •  Yeah (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Nickers

        Nice crap story. One bullet contains carping from the NRO (sheesh), and the other from Fred freakin' Wertheimer (double sheesh). And the third bullet turned out to be wrong, since the small donor # is apparently big. The only thing Yahoo got "right" is the economy, but unless there's a double-dip (not necessarily a small if), that's long since been baked into the cake.

        Political Director, Daily Kos

        by David Nir on Thu Jun 30, 2011 at 08:50:20 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  I just figured something out! (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, dc1000, MichaelNY

    Lisa Madigan is going to run for Governor in 2014, so that she can run for President in 2018 or 2024. I guess that would depend on the situation. It seems so obvious. I don't know why I didn't think about it before.

    19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Thu Jun 30, 2011 at 01:16:11 PM PDT

    •  well she's sure (9+ / 0-)

      not running in 2018!

      18, D, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college next year). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. Put your age and CD here :) -.5.38, -3.23

      by jncca on Thu Jun 30, 2011 at 01:26:43 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Maybe (0+ / 0-)

      But if Durbin retired in 2014, I could see her running for that seat.

      •  She had the perfect opportunity (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jj32, MichaelNY, Christopher Walker

        in 2010. I think she sees a clearer path to the Presidency through a Governorship. Oh Durbin is definitely not retiring, at least not in 2014.

        19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin for Senate!

        by ndrwmls10 on Thu Jun 30, 2011 at 02:49:19 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  True, Durbin will be 70 in 2014 (3+ / 0-)

          Which, I guess, isnt really that old for Senate retirement. I think if Quinn is popular in 2014, he should run for re-election. Madigan could take on Kirk in 2016, in that case. I worry we might get a weaker candidate against Kirk, and he wins re-election.

          •  I "hate" making firm predictions, but (5+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            jj32, James Allen, LordMike, itskevin, Nickers

            Mark Kirk won't win reelection. I use Peter Fitzgerald as an example. Mark Kirk is to his right and Illinois has moved to the left. I think everyone outside of Blago could defeat him. Of course I would love to see Michelle run against him. In that case I could see Kirk retiring, all together. I think Quinn has been doing a good job, but I would rather see the popular Madigan in the top spot.

            19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin for Senate!

            by ndrwmls10 on Thu Jun 30, 2011 at 03:50:39 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I think Kirk is stronger than Fitzgerald, but (6+ / 0-)

              I agree, I think it will be tough for him to win re-election. He won in 2010, without a majority, against a bad opponent, in horrible year for Dems, particularly in Illinois, with Blago's shadow hanging over the state.

              In 2016, he is running in a blue state, in a presidential election, Blago will have spent years in prison, and hopefully, he will face a stronger candidate. My only worry is we get a weak candidate, because Madigan runs for governor, and Kirk fools people into thinking he is a moderate like he did numerous times to hold his House seat.

              Certainly, if Madigan wants to be president, governor is the best bet. But if Quinn is popular, it just doesnt seem fair to force him not to run. Although, maybe if he is popular, he could run for Senate against Kirk.

              I agree Michelle would be a fantastic candidate. But I dont she is really into politics that much, at least not for herself.  

              •  I don't know (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                jj32, MichaelNY

                why people have that impression. Michelle Obama was involved in politics before President Obama. She worked in the Daley admin. and introduced President Obama to many of the people who helped him along the way. Granted she was weary of 2008, but that's because she had young children. In 2016, her children will be much older.

                As for Quinn, I don't want him to be forced out, but I definitely think he should retire in 2014.

                19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin for Senate!

                by ndrwmls10 on Thu Jun 30, 2011 at 04:19:45 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  That's a good point (4+ / 0-)

                  I dont know, I've gotten the sense that Michelle, like many spouses, rightfully doesnt like that increased scrutiny you face as a candidate or the spouse of a candidate. I think she has talked about how she was skeptical about her husband having a career in politics initially. But it would be great if she ran, she is really intelligent, and I think would be great in public office.

                  Regarding Quinn, I just feel like if he does have strong approval ratings, he shouldnt waste that. He should run for something, if not gov, maybe a House seat or something. Given that he is a gov of Illinois, I hope I dont regret saying this, but he seem to be a genuinely decent guy, and it would great to have his voice somewhere in politics, if not governor.  

  •  Mazie momentum! (6+ / 0-)

    Laborers Union Local 368 has endorsed her. Stay away Colleen!

    19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Thu Jun 30, 2011 at 02:09:48 PM PDT

  •  Hartford, Connecticut Mayor Pedro Segarra's (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    dc1000, itskevin, Nickers, MichaelNY

    main opponent had dropped out and endorsed him.

    http://www.gaypolitics.com/...

    19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Thu Jun 30, 2011 at 02:38:24 PM PDT

  •  Apparently (9+ / 0-)

    Thaddeus McCotter will not retire to spend more time with his ego... he's running for president!!!

    http://politicalwire.com/...

    NY-14, DC-AL (College), Former SSPer and incredibly distraught Mets fan.

    by nycyoungin on Thu Jun 30, 2011 at 04:07:46 PM PDT

  •  Hallelujah! McCotter for President! (5+ / 0-)

    The Detroit News is reporting that Michigan congressman Thaddeus "Thad" McCotter will formally announce that he's running for president of the United States on Saturday!

    Washington— Rep. Thaddeus McCotter will announce he will run for president Saturday, three people briefed on the matter said today.

    A campaign official said McCotter will file his presidential election papers withthe Federal Election Campaignon Friday, and he is suspending his House fund and rolling it into a presidential campaign fund.

    His website — www.McCotter2012.com — will go live around noon tomorrow, and he has secured office space in western Wayne County for his campaign. McCotter has hired a former speaker of the Iowa House, Chris Rants, as a campaign adviser and is workingtohire advisers inNew Hampshire.

    The Livonia Republican, who is in his fifth term in Congress, has been considering the move for weeks and spent four days in Iowa meeting with potential voters. Iowa holds a Feb. 6 caucus — the first votes cast in the nation in the presidential race.

    You're welcome, America.  You'll love this guy.  I'm convinced he's entering the race for only two reasons: for his own outsized ego, and to tear Mitt Romney to pieces.

  •  Some word on GOP fundraising numbers (8+ / 0-)

    link.

    Romney will report less than 20 mil

    Pawlenty will report less than 5 mil

    Huntsman raised around 4 mil, although it was mostly his own money.

    Like many, I think Huntsman is mainly a media candidate, but still, I cant blame him for a poor fundraising haul since he has only officially been a candidate for a couple of weeks.

    If true, Pawlenty's numbers are awful, and Romney's are a bit weak.

  •  SC-Gov: Haley rebuked by State Legislature. (8+ / 0-)

    They override most of her budget vetoes.
    Yep, she's becoming as useless as Sanford.
    http://www.thestate.com/...

    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo! So little time, so much to know!

    by KingofSpades on Thu Jun 30, 2011 at 08:06:26 PM PDT

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