Gay marriage supporter at the 41st LGBT Pride parade in San Francisco (Reuters/Susana Bates)
A year and a half ago, progressives in Maine suffered a devastating setback when voters narrowly overturned the state's marriage equality law, 53-47. The vote came a year after voters in California did the same, 52-48.
The losses were bitter, but they were always seen as speedbumps on the path of marriage equality. Fact is, these initiatives are a last-gasp effort by opponents of equality to codify their hate into state constitutions and law books. The culture is moving quickly away from them. As Nate Silver wrote back in 2009:
Marriage bans, however, are losing ground at a rate of slightly less than 2 points per year. So, for example, we'd project that a state in which a marriage ban passed with 60 percent of the vote last year would only have 58 percent of its voters approve the ban this year.
To be blunt, elderly haters are dying off, while young people are the most tolerant and open-minded generation in our country. Progress is inevitable. Just look at the national trends:
That's the first time
ever Gallup has shown majority support for marriage equality, and represents a stunning 49-point swing on the issue in the last 15 years.
Now check out what has happened at the state level, as conservatives try to codify their hate into state constitutions:
Connecticut, Iowa, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Vermont, and DC already practice marriage equality. New York will join them in July. Of the leftover states, there appears to be little appetite for more anti-equality initiatives. Conservatives are mounting a ballot effort in Minnesota in 2012, and there are rumblings of a similar effort in North Carolina -- the only southern state that hasn't codified its hate. A Tarheel initiative would serve double duty, by boosting the wingnut vote in the presidential contest and other down-ballot races.
But we're starting to see something new -- the rise of the ballot initiative seeking to overturn marriage equality bans.
First out of the gate is Maine, where Why Marriage Matters announced the launch of its petition drive to get the issue before the voters in 2012.
We intend to ask Mainers at the ballot in November 2012 to support marriage equality – and we believe that Maine people will do so. The process of winning the freedom to marry begins today with the submission of proposed ballot language to the Maine Secretary of State.
Activists in Oregon are mulling a similar initiative.
The state's largest gay rights group is running its second statewide television advertising campaign aimed at warming Oregon hearts and minds to same-sex marriage.
Basic Rights Oregon is in the second week of a three-week ad campaign on network and cable television stations that is expected to reach 750,000 Oregonians.
The group ran a similar campaign last summer and has been working more than two years to engage Oregonians on the issue of same-sex marriage through community meetings, neighborhood canvassing and house parties. Its goal is to pass an initiative that would overturn the state ban on gay marriage.
Basic Rights has no specific plans to launch an initiative campaign, said Jeana Frazzini, executive director, but the group has said in the past that it could act as soon as 2012.
Equality groups in California are still debating whether to launch their own initiative. The fear is that the legal case against Proposition 8 might stall as the courts wait for the voters to decide on the issue.
"I'm not so much for it, right now," says Courage Campaign Founder Rick Jacobs, who was involved in previous efforts to possibly put a pro-gay marriage initiative on the ballot.
Jacobs has yet to talk with Courage Campaign members and says his remarks are only his "personal beliefs."
He warns that a pro-gay marriage ballot measure in 2012 could cause further legal problems for the gay marriage cause in California. "Courts don't typically lead public opinion," says Jacobs. "They usually follow it. A ballot measure may provide a court an excuse to further delay [a ruling on Proposition 8]."
The Prop 8 lawsuit isn't just about California -- it's a federal case with national implications. A federal judge already declared California's marriage ban unconstitutional. If the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals agrees, it would invalidate anti-gay marriage laws in the entire West. And if the Alito-Roberts-Scalia Supreme Court agreed? Ha ha ha, let's get back to reality.
Yesterday, Nate revisited the model I linked to above.
[Nate's most cautious model shows that] 54 percent of Californians would vote against a measure like Proposition 8 if one were on the ballot next year, while 55 percent of Oregonians would vote against a ban on same-sex marriage like the one the state’s voters approved in 2004. Neither prediction seems too far out of line: Oregon’s marriage ban was rejected by 43 percent of voters seven years ago, and California’s by 48 percent two years ago, and public opinion has shifted meaningfully in favor of same-sex marriage since then.
What's making gay groups in Oregon and California pause? Money. These initiatives are expensive, and the Catholic and Mormon churches who fund the other side have virtually limitless funds. And to be fair, the $40 million it would cost equality forces to fight an initiative battle in 2012 could easily be spent on other worthwhile endeavors.
But the public opinion numbers and trends are headed in the right direction, while the legal case hinges on a hostile Supreme Court. Looking to the courts for salvation when the public is increasingly primed to accept this change could be self-defeating. It's time to go on the offensive.