Quinnipiac (6/21-27, registered voters, no trendlines):
Tim Kaine (D): 43
George Allen (R): 42
Undecided: 11
(MoE: ±2.6%)
Both men poll equally well among members of their own party, but Allen has a 46-38 lead among independents. This contrasts with PPP, which showed a slight Kaine lead (PDF) with indies. Also, I believe this may be the first-ever time Quinnipiac has polled Virginia. This morning, we noticed some wonkiness in their numbers vis-a-vis black approvals for GOP Gov. Bob McDonnell, but black support for Kaine is pretty similar to what we've seen from PPP. And like PPP, Quinnipiac shows a sizable chunk of African-American voters undecided—something that almost certainly won't be the case on election day, especially with Barack Obama on the ballot.
If there's one thing that seems indisputable, though, it's how tight this race is. Check out TPM's poll tracker:
Discounting that one weird outlier from Roanoke (that's the blue dot way at the bottom in April), three different pollsters have now confirmed that this contest is extremely close. (The third is the Washington Post, who found a dead-even tie back in May.) Will anything jar this one loose either way, or will it be neck-and-neck until election day?
UPDATE: Via email, Quinnipiac has provided their sample breakdowns for us:
Republican: 24
Democrat: 29
Independent: 38
Other: 7
DK/NA: 3
White (non-hisp): 72
Black (non-hisp): 19
Other (non-hisp): 7
Hispanic (all): 2
PPP had 37D-34R-29I. Since both pollsters weight for race, the racial compositions are very similar.