Okay, so let's assume the GOP gerrymander in North Carolina is struck down and the Supreme Court orders the State Legislature to draw a map that does not pull NC-01 out of any Section 5 counties and that does not maintain the NC-12 gerrymander. What could the GOP then do? Any hope at 10-3 is then probably gone, plus even in the current version McIntyre could probably have survived and made it a 9-4.
Roguemapper says that probably the repercussions over the whole map would be that the GOP might have to draw a 8-5 map because they couldn't connect Rep. Miller to the mountain counties anymore, if I understand him correctly. I think a 9-4 is still in the cards, and here's how--I hope the map is clear enough that I don't have to do district-level shots:
EDIT: Okay, so let's rephrase that: As roguemapper points out in the comments, he did merely say that the map couldn't be drawn as a 8-5 unless the Price vote sink in the Rucho-Lewis proposal could be maintained without a loss in effectivity. This is what my map here does.
In order of conception:
NC-01 (Blue) Butterfield
50.1% Black VAP, Roguemapper-compliant in not drawing out of anything Section-V covered. 66.1-33.4 Obama, 68.4-31.6 D
84% of the seat are from the old Butterfield seat, 11% from Price.
NC-03 (Purple) Jones
He soaks up everything east of NC-01, but instead of going North after that, he absorbs Wilmington, part of splitting the Eastern part of McIntyre's old Seventh.
56.2-42.8 McCain, 55.6-44.4 R
60% of his territory is retained, 38% come from McIntyre's seat.
NC-02 (Green) Ellmers
Ellmers takes in much of the territory in McIntyre's seat that didn't vote for Obama but is open to voting for other Democrats, so I had to make her absolutely safe. She also adds in territory that is NOT open to voting for Conservadems.
58.3-41.0 McCain, 53.9-46.1 R
Ellmers' new seat is a combination of her old one (29%), Jones' Third (30%) and McIntyre's 7th (38%).
CD-04 (Open/Miller?)--Red
The suburban Wake County portion of Ellmers' seat goes to CD-04, which also adds in the remaining parts bordering the 1st district that were previously taken up by Walter Jones' seat. It then selects choice Republican parts of Wake for the rest of its population. It is by the McCain measure not a very strong seat, but this isn't Conservadem-territory-- these are suburban Republicans.
54.8-44.3 McCain, 55.9-44.1 R
42% come from Ellmers' seat, 20% from Miller's seat, 27% from Price's seat.
CD-06 (Teal-Coble)
The remaining parts of Wake that are not totally Democratic are taken up by Howard Coble-- he makes up for it by adding the insanely Republican central part of the state to it. These areas gave McCain 75% of the vote, and it's solidly Republican, not Conservadem. And they always turn out.
54.5-44.4 McCain, 56.5-43.5 R
31.3% come from Coble's old seat, 25.5% from Price's, 14.2% from Kissell's, 16.8% from Miller's.
CD-07 (Black--Kissell+McIntyre)
This is the vote sink that combines McIntyre and Kissell. The primary here will be interesting. The seat is majority-minority VAP (45.4% White, 33% Black, 9% Hispanic, 8% Native).
60.8-38.5 Obama, 61.4-38.6 D.
47.2% come from Kissell's old seat, 28.4% from McIntyre, 11.5% from Myrick, 9% from Ellmers (which should favor McIntyre since the districts share the Conservadem legacy with Etheridge).
This should be even more interesting if an African-American candidate from Charlotte runs, too.
CD-11 (Price, purple)
The remaining areas in Raleigh go into this interesting district spidering to Winston-Salem. Majority-Minority at 48.6% White VAP (34.7% Black, 10.4% Hispanic).
74.7-24.5 Obama, 71.1-28.9 D
37% come from Price's seat, 30.4% from Miller's, 15% from Mel Watt, 10% from Ellmers, 7% from Coble. Just as an hypothetical, Miller+Ellmers+Coble (Miller's Raleigh+Triad suburbia combination) vs. Price+Watt (African-Americans from the Triad+Price's college kids) add up to a 52-48 advantage for Price.
If you do the same for Obama voters instead of all constituents, Price+Watt has 59% (41+18) and Miller+Ellmers+Coble 41% (28+9+4).
CD-13 (White, open)
This makes the creation of this seat now very straightforward. Mountain Counties+Triad suburbia. The mountain counties are open to voting for Conservadems, the suburban parts are not. The suburbian part is a bit bigger, so Republicans actually usually outperform McCain here.
54.9-45.1 McCain, 55.6-44.4 R
33.8% comes from Foxx' seat, 30.4% from Miller, 23.8% from Coble, 9.6% from Price.
CD-8 (Green, open)
Howard Coble could choose to run here if he doesn't like the 6th, it doesn't make a difference. He represents equally much territory, the seats are equally strongly Republican, and his house lies on the border (it's currently in the 6th but can be easily moved without changing the sublines, it's literally like 500 feet away from the border).
This seat follows the same formula as the 13th district.
55.1-44.0 McCain, 56.9-43.1 R
36.6% actually come from Mel Watt (mostly the I-85 connection in Lexington, High Point and so on), 31.8% from Coble's seat, 28.5% from Foxx.
---One of Kissell/McIntyre and Miller are now extinct, with Price facing a potential primary from the Triad. Let's go on to dismantle Shuler even more completely than in the current configuration.---
CD-09 (Myrick, light blue)
Myrick's seat keeps the Charlotte suburbia it used to have, and then goes West to pick up parts of Shuler's district. Granted, it's the parts who weren't open to voting for him anyway (he got destroyed in parts of the district in 2010-- he's not invincible), but still. It's part of the plan.
58.1-40.9% McCain, 61.3-38.7 R
57% come from the old 9th, 15% from the 10th, 26.6% from Shuler's 11th. One quarter of Shuler's district is now dealt with.
CD-12 (Watt, Shuler, Yellow)
This district takes the Charlotte portion of the old 12th and then goes west to Fayetteville and Waynesville--the core of Shuler's district-- in a giant fuck-you to Shuler. I've tried this once before, but in that version I just took the African-American core of Asheville away. Now? All Democratic parts of Buncombe are gone, and almost all of Haywood, Shuler's home county.
He could try to face Watt in a primary, but unless he manages to get it into a racial mess that brings white liberals to vote for him instead of Watt, he's toast.
And if he does beat Watt, even better for Republicans!
55.4% White (yeah, white majority, but the old seat wasn't VRA protected, remember?), 30.1% Black VAP, 10% Hispanic.
67.1-32.0 Obama, 64.7-35.3 D
33% come from Heath' seat, 31% from Mel Watt's. But the 31% from Watt's portion are almost all Democrats, many of Heath' 33% are Republicans, and the Democrats don't like him that much anyway. 11.5% come from Kissell's 8th, 21.4% from Myrick's 9th.
CD-05 (red, Shuler-Foxx)
Now you could say, hey, Shuler could try to run in the conservative, ancestrally Democratic Counties. The strongest Congressional Democrat against the weakest Congressional Republican in Foxx? No. Seriously, even Shuler doesn't survive a 61.6% McCain district (36.9% Obama). 61-39 R.
37% come from Shuler, 37% from McHenry, 27% from Foxx.
CD-10 (orange, McHenry).
The leftovers. 58.3-40.8% McCain, 60-40 R.
38.5% from McHenry's district, 10% from the 12th, 22% from Myrick, 20% from Kissell, 6% from Foxx.
And-- that's it. 9-4 Republican with no way that Democrats can really win anything beyond their four seats.