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SSP Labs, a division of Daily Kos Elections, has been busy cranking away, and today, we bring you an installment of Nebraska and Missouri.

We're also rolling out a new feature that we've been busy working on (and which I may have mentioned to a few of you that we met at Netroots Nation): a Google Maps overlay of new congressional districts. The format in which states provide their new districts is rarely accessible—after all, does anyone really know where Census Block 170310611001014 is? (5 points if you do and can say what's special about it!) So we've decided to parse that data into a much more user-friendly form—zoomable down to street level. (You try doing that with those clunky PDF maps that state legislatures produce!)

So first, Nebraska:
Faced with some slight egg on their collective faces with President Obama's nabbing of the NE-02 electoral vote in 2008, the Republicans in the Nebraska unicam tried to strengthen the second district by diving into western Sarpy County instead of the eastern (and less Republican) areas. However, thanks to population growth, the needle only moves a few hundredths of a percent away from us. The second had been overpopulated, so while the part of Sarpy that it does get is more Republican, there's much less of Sarpy overall in it now; the swing is only 0.02% away from Team Blue.

Otherwise, there's remarkable constancy here, with each district having moved between 0.13% and 0.18% towards the Republicans NE-01 moving a few hundredths of a percent away from us and NE-03 moving about 1.5% in our direction (not that it really matters), and each district having 80% or more retained from its old incarnation. (The GOP did rearrange some outlying counties, removing, for example, ancestrally Dem-leaning counties from the 1st into the 3rd.)

Then, there's Missouri:

Having lost a seat (and thanks to some truly spineless Dems), the Missouri GOP set out on screwing Russ Carnahan ... and they, indeed, succeeded. The old MO-03 is chopped into four bits, with it making up no more than 30% of any new district. Notably, slightly more is put into the new 1st than the new 2nd. The 2nd—which will be open given that current GOP Rep. Todd Akin is busy committing voter fraud running for Senate—wouldn't be a particularly soft landing spot for Carnahan, at 46% Obama.

With Sam Graves' 6th district spanning the northern tier of the state, sophomore GOPer Blaine Luetkemeyer's district also experiences a significant change (leaving him with 61% new constituents). However, with the removal of Columbia and Boone County, the new 3rd is actually a slight improvement for him from the old 9th. Boone County is plunked into freshman GOPer Vicki Hartzler's new 4th, boosting her district from 38% Obama to 42% Obama. I would say this could be ripe for an Ike Skelton comeback ... but let's be realistic.

Not much else has changed, with some help for Sam Graves. Freshman Billy Long's district stays largely constant, and Emanuel Cleaver's district adds three rural counties, which drops his district 2% in Obama performance. À la Dan Lipinski though, this drop may be desired (by Cleaver), since those three rural counties surely adds white Republicans ... who are likely less of a threat to Cleaver than, well, white Democrats in the rest of Jackson/Cass County. This, of course, does NOT absolve the four state House Dems who caved to help override Nixon's veto ...

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Tue Jul 05, 2011 at 10:53 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Just have to say . . . (18+ / 0-)

    . . . that the title of this post is the best yet on DKE . . . and comes close to the "Panic! At Tedisco" headline back on SSP!

    28, chick, solid progressive, NY-14 currently, FL-22 native, went to school in IL-01.

    by The Caped Composer on Tue Jul 05, 2011 at 10:55:24 AM PDT

  •  the MO5 vote sink (0+ / 0-)

    despite any concern out of KC over the ridiculous change to the 5th, it looks like it was obviously a vote sink to get Dems out of Graves and Hartzler's districts.

    Coincidentally, the most Democratic part of the 4th (which also had Ike Skelton's house) went to the 5th. No idea on how they would have morphed that district had he defeated Hartzler.

    Even with the wide margin in the 4th, i'd hope the Boone County Dems make up for time lost by not putting up a single candidate v. Luetkemeyer in 2010 to put someone up against Hartzler.

    And if Russ goes for the 80% 1st over the open 2nd, then that's going to be a very disappointing move on his part.

    The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

    by RBH on Tue Jul 05, 2011 at 11:11:51 AM PDT

    •  No it wouldn't (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SaoMagnifico, MichaelNY

      It would remove Lacy Clay, the Democrat who only cares about himself. And let's be honest...I highly doubt Carnahan can win MO-02.

      •  no (0+ / 0-)

        it'd waste people's time with a primary, instead of working to elect more Democrats in a state that needs more Dems.

        Not to mention that Clay will defeat Carnahan easily.

        Carnahan has a reason to run in MO2 because of the likelyhood that the Republicans will nominate a nutter who will lose a 52/46 R district.

        The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

        by RBH on Tue Jul 05, 2011 at 02:00:46 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Um, no (4+ / 0-)

          "It'd waste people's time with a primary" ... I get the idea, but Lacy Clay as a legislator is the very definition of "waste of space". Plus, it'd serve Af-Am MO Dems right -- they made a deal with the devil to have two seats. It would be a cold serving of justice if a white dude takes over the seat that is actually majority-minority. (and btw, for his treachery, I'd love to see Cleaver get primaried hard....state Sen. Jolie Justus is probably too nice to do it and will wait her turn, but I would love to see her try)

          As for the kamikaze run, he's a Carnahan. If anyone can win that seat, he can. And if he's got the balls, good on him.

          Still, I think I'd rather maybe see him replace Kinder as Lieutenant Governor, and then we can have two Carnahans on deck for any statewide race that comes up.

          Kansan by birth, Californian by choice and Gay by the Grace of God.

          by arealmc on Tue Jul 05, 2011 at 02:27:18 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I would have phrased that differently (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            drobertson, SaoMagnifico, James Allen

            "It would serve African-American MO Democratic pols right." Maybe the difference is too nitpicky to mean much to you, but that struck me just a bit.

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Tue Jul 05, 2011 at 03:25:12 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  So (0+ / 0-)

            with your deep knowledge of Missouri politics, i'm sure that you can cite something Russ Carnahan has done that he can talk about after he follows your advice of calling Lacy Clay a waste of space...

            Because I remember a lot of the MO3 talk from 7 years ago being about how Carnahan was an unaccomplished legislator who was only getting by on the family name, and it seems like you're trying to suggest Carnahan use that tactic.

            So essentially you'd rather have the entire MO delegation in primaries instead of actually trying to hold 3 of 8 seats. You do know it's gonna be difficult to get to 218 seats already, right?

            The only things missing from that post are calls to primary the governor, secretary of state and attorney general of Missouri. After all, might as well give the Republicans total power to make Missouri into Kansas, right?

            The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

            by RBH on Tue Jul 05, 2011 at 07:40:25 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  I agree (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, jncca

        I rarely say this, but I'd rather have a primary than have Rep. Carnahan make a kamikaze run at MO-02.

        Independent, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

        by SaoMagnifico on Tue Jul 05, 2011 at 02:04:53 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  If anything (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, James Allen, drobertson

    the MO map demonstrates how concentrated Dem voters are. All of them are in KC/StL for the most part.

    NY-14, DC-AL (College), Former SSPer and incredibly distraught Mets fan.

    by nycyoungin on Tue Jul 05, 2011 at 11:12:48 AM PDT

  •  MO 1 and 2 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    David Nir, MichaelNY

    Love the functionality of the map!
    Zoom into Webster Groves in STL County - see that little finger of blue that snakes from 1 into 2? That's a predominately African American area that the GOP made sure stayed with STL City.

    Once in awhile you get shown the light in the strangest of places if you look at it right...

    by Glic on Tue Jul 05, 2011 at 11:14:06 AM PDT

  •  thanks jeff (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bythesea, MichaelNY

    Are there any states outstanding?  Alabama maybe?
    What is the AA % by VAP for MO-01?

  •  How does that work? Magic? (0+ / 0-)
    with each district having moved between 0.13% and 0.18% towards the Republicans

    I could see it if the districts were fundamentally different in population size, but they're not. How do they move every district towards them?

    •  Forget this comment. Somebody (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Xenocrypt

      shat in my brain.

      •  ... (0+ / 0-)

        Color me confused? I actually don't understand how it works. I'm not a math person outside of statistics.

        21, Nice Calm Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood), TX-23 (School), TX-10 (Home); SSP: wmayes

        by wwmiv on Tue Jul 05, 2011 at 12:03:57 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Imagine the following scenario: (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen

          You have two districts.

          District 1 is 10% Republican and has 100.000 people.
          District 2 is 60% Republican and has 200.000 people. It consists of two regions. Region one has 100.000 people and is 30% Republican, Region two has 100.000 people and is 90% Republican.

          You move Region One from District 2 to District 1.

          Before, District 1 was 10% Republican, and District 2 60% Republican.

          Now, District 1 is 20% Republican and District 2 90% Republican.

          It would also work with districts that have the same population size changing territory, but that would be a more complicated example, as you'd need four regions/precincts whatever.

        •  It's really not difficult (0+ / 0-)

          At least when you have uneven numbers of votes.

          Take this an example.  I have two districts.  One district cast 150,000 votes for the Republican and 50,000 for the Democrat.  The other cast 50,000 for the Republican and 50,000 for the Democrat.

          In order to even out the population, I move an area that cast 30,000 votes for the Republican and 20,000 for the Democrat into the second district.

          District 1 goes from 75-25 Republican to 80-20 Republican.

          District 2 goes from 50-50 to 53-47 Republican.

          27, white male, TX-26 (current), TN-07 (originally), liberal-leaning independent

          by TDDVandy on Tue Jul 05, 2011 at 05:30:48 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  It's the "Will Rogers phenomenon" (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      drobertson

      See Wikipedia article.

      Creating other instances of this might be a neat exercise, perhaps with redrawing state boundaries. Simple example: moving Clark County (58% Obama) from Nevada (55% Obama) to California (61% Obama) makes both states more Republican.

  •  I see how it's theoretically possible (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Marcus Graly, jeffmd

    Say you have two districts.

    CD-01: 70-30 McCain
    CD-02: 55-45 McCain

    You take parts of CD-01 that went 65-35 McCain and move them to CD-02.

    In CD-01, 65-35 is "worse" than the average for the district, so its partisanship will improve for the Republicans.

    In CD-02, 65-35 is "better" than the average for the district, so its partisanship will improve as well.

    However, I'm not entirely sure I understand the comment anyway.  NE-03 went 69-30 for McCain (at least according to the spreadsheet over at SSP) and the new one is 67-31 so it seems to have moved away from Republicans.

  •  Not to say "I told you so"... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    But it looks like I was right about both NE-02 and MO-05...

    Independent, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

    by SaoMagnifico on Tue Jul 05, 2011 at 02:03:52 PM PDT

  •  Interesting...the MO GOP Hates Vicky Hartzler (7+ / 0-)

    Almost as much as I do. She could lose that district. Barely. And probably only for a term and then someone less insane would defeat the Democrat who defeated her. But she could lose it. And I would lurve to see that happen....

    Kansan by birth, Californian by choice and Gay by the Grace of God.

    by arealmc on Tue Jul 05, 2011 at 02:40:51 PM PDT

    •  What about... (5+ / 0-)

      Treasurer Clint Zweifel of Columbia or Atty. Gen. Chris Koster of Harrisonville? Koster is actually an ex-Republican who switched parties in 2007, complaining that the Missouri Republican Party was becoming too extreme and moderates were vanishing from its ranks.

      Independent, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Tue Jul 05, 2011 at 03:07:10 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Treasurer Zweifel is just 37 (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        drobertson, MichaelNY

        Atty. Gen. Koster is pretty young himself at 46.

        Independent, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

        by SaoMagnifico on Tue Jul 05, 2011 at 03:07:59 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I should add... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, ArkDem14

        That Atty. Gen. Koster was one of the Democrats who spoke out against the individual mandate and has publicly flirted with joining the GOP-led lawsuit to block implementation of PPACA. I reckon he's conservative enough to beat Rep. Hartzler in a good year while still being liberal enough to be an improvement over her in Congress (obviously), and that provides a strong electability argument for him, but Treasurer Zweifel might have an edge in a Democratic primary between the two.

        From Zweifel's Wikipedia page here:

        He chaired the Missouri House Democratic Campaign Committee in 2006, leading all Missouri House candidate recruitment and fundraising efforts. The effort resulted in the largest Democratic net gain in the House since 1978.

        I'd say that gives him a leg up if he wants the seat. I wonder, though, if he might be considered too liberal even to beat a pathetically weak Tea Party opponent in a 56.5% McCain district.

        Independent, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

        by SaoMagnifico on Tue Jul 05, 2011 at 03:44:03 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  nope (0+ / 0-)

      Columbia is one of those places they have to dump somewhere. Luetkemeyer's house is in the SW corner of his district. So if he gets Columbia, his house goes into the 4th. If Graves gets Columbia, then they have to move one of the other districts into northeast Missouri.

      If someone with an actual campaign from Columbia runs, it'll be a good duel, but their bet is that Columbia will handle Hartzler's re-election campaigns like they handled Hulshof and Luetkemeyer's re-election bids.

      The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

      by RBH on Tue Jul 05, 2011 at 07:44:31 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  The issue... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        JGibson, MichaelNY

        Is that Columbia is a light-blue island in a sea of red. It's basically Missouri's Ashland, to compare to my home state.

        I think Columbia residents would break pretty strongly for Treasurer Zweifel if he ran, and probably also for Atty. Gen. Koster despite his Republican history and lack of "favorite son" status, but it won't be enough unless the Democrat can hold down Rep. Hartzler's margins (or bank on severely depressed Republican turnout) in traditionally very conservative Cass County and avoid getting blown out in other rural red counties.

        Independent, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

        by SaoMagnifico on Tue Jul 05, 2011 at 08:16:53 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Hartzler represents me (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JGibson, KingofSpades, MichaelNY

      I live in Warrensburg, home of the University of Central Missouri.

      In 2008, Warrensburg just barely went for Obama, both Kerry and Gore lost it.

      Johnson County was Skelton's best county in the district in 2010.  He percentage was better than it was in his home county.

      Hartzler has some interesting baggage: $750,000 for farm subsidies; a husband who owns a farm implement company but apparently (according to Hartzler's Congressional filing) has not income; and whose real issue is homosexuality.

      If Republicans shut down the government, Hartzler is vulnerable, I believe, to a Democratic populist message.

      That she will not run well in either university town in the district.  And, they are sources for volunteers.

      Mit der Dummheit kämpfen Götter selbst vergebens.

      by MoDem on Tue Jul 05, 2011 at 08:38:36 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Wrigley Field = 170310611001014 (12+ / 0-)

    Census Block 170310611001014  is Wrigley field.
    Illinois= 017
    Cook County = 031
    Tract = 061
    Block Group = 100
    Block = 1014

    What do I get?

    ex-SSP I abstained rather than vote for Kevin McCarthy.

    by hankmeister on Tue Jul 05, 2011 at 03:48:55 PM PDT

    •  Would you be ok with 5 points for Gryffindor? (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14, Cassandra Waites, Odysseus

      Well done!

      Though, digits 6-11 represent the tract, that is, Wrigley's in Tract 611(.00).

      Block groups aren't encoded separately and are not needed to identify a unique block; the block group is always the first digit of the block itself. Wrigley, for example, is in Block Group 1 (since it's 1014).

      •  oops (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jeffmd

        I was going from memory. I had an inkling I was messing up the Block Group level when I was writing that.
         I downloaded the county file for state 17 and the block data for county 31 from the census ftp site. Then loaded both in to ArcGIS and did a quick query.

        ex-SSP I abstained rather than vote for Kevin McCarthy.

        by hankmeister on Tue Jul 05, 2011 at 06:29:37 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  If you are Cub fan (5+ / 0-)

      a lot of heartbreak.

      I saw a couple in KC when the Cubs were in town last week wearing Cub team shirts.  They had two boys with them.

      As a Cub fan, I'm beginning to think it borders on child abuse to raise a child to be a Cub fan.

      Mit der Dummheit kämpfen Götter selbst vergebens.

      by MoDem on Tue Jul 05, 2011 at 08:45:40 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Soap Opera (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MoDem

        Becoming a Cubs fan may be an option, considering what is going on around Chavez Ravine these days. At least there isn't a soap opera taking place at Wrigley. Please someone rescue the Dodgers!

        ex-SSP I abstained rather than vote for Kevin McCarthy.

        by hankmeister on Tue Jul 05, 2011 at 09:47:32 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Block 1014 - Did it get that number because it's (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Odysseus, jeffmd

      been 1014 years since the Cubs won a world series? ;)

      Science flies you to the moon, religion flies you into buildings.

      by yg17 on Wed Jul 06, 2011 at 05:49:11 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  NE-2 will still be winnable for Obama, I think (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SaoMagnifico, James Allen, MichaelNY

    Depending on how 2012 turns out, that PVI could conceivably drop. Aren't PVI's averaged over 2 cycles?

    25, Male, CA-24, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Tue Jul 05, 2011 at 04:20:53 PM PDT

  •  MO-2 is probably winnable for Carnahan (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen

    It might be less so if he were running against another incumbent, but that isn't the case since Akin is running for the Senate.

    27, white male, TX-26 (current), TN-07 (originally), liberal-leaning independent

    by TDDVandy on Tue Jul 05, 2011 at 05:31:28 PM PDT

  •  NE-02: Is Warren Buffett's grandson (4+ / 0-)

    still aiming to run here?

    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo! So little time, so much to know!

    by KingofSpades on Tue Jul 05, 2011 at 07:14:47 PM PDT

  •  Nebraska's split voting (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    I thought the Republicans would have changed the law by now to stop a repeat of last time?

  •  I have it on good albeit anonymous authority . . . (0+ / 0-)

    the other Dems are REALLY pissed off at those who caved in on the redistricting it did not have to happen.

    As I understand it, Emmanual Cleaver actually pressured the Dems to override Nixon's veto, because he was happy with the re-draw as passed.

    I tremble for my country when I reflect that God is just; that his justice cannot sleep forever. ~Thomas Jefferson

    by bobdevo on Wed Jul 06, 2011 at 06:31:45 AM PDT

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