New Mexico's White Sands
Public Policy Polling (6/23-26, usual New Mexico primary voters, no trendlines):
Martin Heinrich (D): 47
Hector Balderas (D): 24
Someone else/not sure: 29
Heather Wilson (R): 52
John Sanchez (R): 24
Greg Sowards (R): 8
Bill English (R): 4
Someone else/not sure: 12
(MoE: ±4.9%)
There's an interesting symmetry in the New Mexico Senate primaries, where, for both parties, Anglo House members are squaring off against Hispanic statewide officials. For now, PPP finds that the frontrunners are, for the Democrats, current NM-01 Rep. Martin Heinrich (over state Auditor Hector Balderas), and, for the GOP, former NM-01 Rep. Heather Wilson (over Lt. Gov. John Sanchez). (PPP also tested a GOP configuration where ex-Gov. Gary Johnson, currently a bottom-feeder in the presidential race, runs; Wilson still wins, picking up 43 to 22 for Johnson and 18 for Sanchez, suggesting that Johnson's libertarian-flavored agenda has limited appeal.)
Name rec seems to be a big factor on both sides of the aisle, though: Wilson is at 66/21 favorables among Republicans with only 14% "not sure," while Sanchez, only elected in 2010, is at 37/19 with 44% "not sure." Similarly, Heinrich is at 53/20 among all Dems with 27% "not sure," while Balderas is at 29/19 with 51% "not sure." (Despite their only representing one-third of the state, I think what this means is that Heinrich and Wilson have been around longer, and have bigger presences in the Albuquerque media market.) Interestingly, ethnicity isn't a huge factor here: for example, Heinrich still leads Balderas among Hispanics, though only 39-36.
Balderas is touting a fairly big endorsement today, though, from former Lt. Governor (and 2010 gubernatorial loser) Diane Denish. I don't think Denish's backing will move too many votes by itself (she's still kind of tarred with her Bill Richardson associations, and recently declined a run in the open NM-01), but it's a sign—along with his competitive fundraising quarter announced yesterday—that the local Dem establishment likes Balderas too and isn't necessarily going to fall wholly in line behind Heinrich.
As for how the woman who beat Denish—Susana Martinez—is doing, she's one of the few new Republican governors who seems to have maintained her popularity. She's at 52/37 approvals statewide, and is one of the new GOP Govs. who'd win a rematch, winning a hypothetical second time against Denish, 53-44. PPP also finds retiring Sen. Jeff Bingaman going out very popular, at 58/29, and other Sen. Tom Udall also well-liked at 48/31. PPP also asked about the gay marriage question in the heavily Catholic state; respondents are 42% for and 48% against, although on the three-way question, they break 37% for full marriage, 31% for civil unions, and 30% no recognition.
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