If I have learned one thing over my years here on Teh Dairy Kos, it is this: when "thereisnospoon" (whom I now affectionately call "oatkins") writes a good diary, it goes through the roof, and can usually only be brought down with a grappling hook.
So, I have to ask you: why does this diary from this morning only have nine comments? This diary explains why the thinking about how John Boehner is dooomed, dooooomed is full of beans. Here, let me give you a highlight below the fold. (Go to the original for the links -- and at least leave a comment, even if you don't recommend it. Here's is how oatkins sees things playing out:
Republicans, he says, will:
1) Force the Democrats (partly with their own help) into a horrible negotiating position by threatening to take the entire country down if the Republicans don't get what they want.
2) Get everything they want, including probable cuts to social security and medicare, disguised as slight tweaks to the COLA (cost-of-living-adjustment) calculus. Which is still a cut, and worse yet, a camel's nose under the tent, from which more cuts to social security and medicare are probable in the future.
3) Complain that the compromise already stacked ridiculously in their favor doesn't go far enough.
4) When the final deal comes before the Congress, vote against it en masse, but with just enough crossover to make sure it passes by a slim margin.
5) Call these votes against the deal a principled stand against raising America's debt.
6) Force Democrats to vote en masse and alone for cuts to Medicare and Social Security.
7) Accuse Dems of cutting Social Security and Medicare because they refused to cut "wasteful spending."
8) Spend the entirety of 2012 attacking Democrats for cutting Social Security and Medicare, while proclaiming their commitment to fiscal discipline and touting their votes against increasing the debt ceiling.
My only addendum (not worth a diary of its own, though I'll leave a comment there to make it an even 10) is this: if they wait until the debt crisis actually hits before doing this, they and there buddies will also make a mint off of what amounts to legalized "insider trading." To wit:
What's going to happen if we crash through the debt limit? People seem to agree that at least two things will happen: (1) interest rates will go up, benefiting bondholders (who get a "risk premium" they really don't deserve or need) and (2) stocks, particularly in the financial sector, will plummet. Well, what does that latter prediction mean? It means that a lot of people will sell stock for less than they should be able to get because they see trouble on the horizon. Where there are sellers, there are buyers. And those people that buy low will make a mint if the stocks go back up to their normal levels. So, if you're a plutocrat, and you know that Republicans are going to give just a few days after the stocks crater, you can wait for that to happen and buy them up for an almost assured profit. And that, too, is "how things get done."
I'd like to see anyone who buys stock that plummets after we slam into the debt ceiling investigated to see whether they received insider information about Republican strategy. Perhaps that's unworkable, but it's worth thinking about.
Now go recommend spoon's diary and let's see if we can get it the eyeballs it deserves.