A while ago I wrote a string of articles (sure to win the Saky for "Best Diary Series By A Long Winded Writer") about maneuver warfare theory. One of the big concepts critical to the success of that theory is initiative, the idea that if you can do the acting and make the other side do the reacting you will have a better chance of winning. Unfortunately, we have lost the initiative on the Debt Ceiling issue. Here's why.
It's been all over the pages today how various Democratic leaders and constituent groups have been up in arms about President Obama's negotiating position of "I'm willing to make some cuts in Social Security payouts to get this deal done." The outrage, while justified, unfortunately creates a lot of problems for us liberally minded folks.
First, we're damaging relations with a constituency that has historically voted R reliably and forcefully. The senior citizens of this country had found a new home after Rep. Ryan unveiled his plan to fix the budgetary issues of this country. After spending some time screaming to keep the government's hands off Medicare, people discovered that doing so is actually pretty damaging to their health. They started considering voting Democratic after we initially said "oh yeah, we want you to be healthy and want Medicare funded."
That's all it would have taken to keep that constituency from leaving. Simply say "Yes, we want Medicare to be funded and we'll keep Social Security paying out in full." When the GOP says "Cut this to the bone or we shut everything down" we respond with "Suck it, we need to raise taxes on billionaires too" and then call daily news conferences that simply divulge the debt discussion details.
Press: "What happened in there?"
Obama: "We said we need to raise taxes on those earning over $1,000,000 in addition to cutting subsidies X, Y, and Z. The GOP responded by demanding cuts to Medicare and Social Security and lowering taxes for the wealthy."
GOP: "Bullshit! We didn't say that!"
Obama: "The audio logs and text transcripts of the discussions are available on www.whitehouse.gov"
GOP: "... Shit."
Really, that's all it would take. Fox News gets its ideas across by flooding the airwaves with erroneous drivel, and that same tactic works with truthful discussions. Now the GOP is left without its older supporters, which would be tremendously damaging. Even racists like SS checks and Medicare.
We Done Goofed
Now the narrative isn't "GOP Wants To Cut Medicare" but rather "Democrats Want To Cut Social Security". "But wait! Democrats from all over Congress have said they won't vote for a deal that cuts the aforementioned programs!" True, however Nancy Pelosi is no longer the leader of D.C. Democrats. That would be President Obama. He is "Democratic Party Actual", and whether we like it or not when he speaks he speaks for EVERYONE that has a (D) next to their name. He has come out in favor of cutting SS benefits by means of a COLA calculation change and THAT has the GOP toasting each other silly tonight.
If I'm the GOP I relish this news. I push for this as hard as I possibly can because when it comes down to it the fact that Democratic Party Actual introduced the idea leaves ownership on him. At some point the GOP will have to give some concessions, and they know this. A default would be catastrophic for the country and could result in the worst case scenario of the rise of an alternative political party. Now, however, Democrats have offered up a long held GOP goal without the GOP giving ANYTHING in return. We could have forced them to react to the looming disaster as we were, we could have maintained the initiative by offering popular solutions that would result in GOP "losses" and only then introduced compromises of our own. Instead we've thrown out a GOP idea as a preemptive concession, completely ignorant of history, devoid of any observation of GOP thought patterns, and absolutely doomed to failure.
The GOP's platform used to be just "No." That would have eventually broken down in our favor. Now they have a potent weapon, they can be the party of "No, that would hurt grandma." SS cuts are inevitable now because the GOP will NOT back down from them. They know the blame on the cuts will rest squarely on the shoulders of Democrats and barring another Ryan Budget level fiasco nothing will change that.