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2Q Fundraising:

AZ-Sen: Jeff Flake (R), $800K raised, $2 million cash-on-hand (Dems really ought to be working on candidate recruitment)

FL-Sen: George LeMieux (R), $950K raised

FL-22: Allen West (R), $1.5 million raised (but no word on his cash-on-hand… let's see what his burn rate looks like)

IA-03: Tom Latham (R), $580K raised, $1.5 million cash-on-hand

IL-10: Brad Schneider (D), $321K raised, $306K cash-on-hand

Senate:

IN-Sen, UT-Sen: The Club for Growth is airing ads targeting Dick Lugar and Orrin Hatch over the debt ceiling, but most amusing is Hatch's "surprise" (his campaign's words) since he recently signed the club's dumb "cut, cap, and balance" pledge. Reminds me of Democrats who got lacerated as "weak on terror" in 2002 despite voting for the Iraq war resolution. Surprise! You can never please these guys.

LA-Sen: Though she isn't up for re-election until 2014, Sen. Mary Landrieu says: "I'm planning on running. I'm looking forward to serving another term, if not two. I have no reason not to. I'm still relatively young. I mean 55, by Senate standards, is young." As Jonathan Tilove points out in his extensive profile of Landrieu's current standing in the Pelican State, when she first took office in 1997, she was one of eight Democratic statewide elected officials in Louisiana. Now she stands alone.

PA-Sen: Army vet and businessman David Christian is the latest Republican to consider a possible run against the buzzsaw named Bob Casey. His website reeks of Some Dudeness, but someone actually put together a reasonable-looking Wikipedia page for him (some time ago, not just yesterday), showcasing his extensive military decorations. He also ran for Congress twice in the 1980s, coming very close to beating one-time Dem Rep. Peter Kostmayer in the 8th CD in 1984.

Gubernatorial:

NH-Gov: Republican Ovide Lamontagne, a possible gubernatorial candidate, "hopes to announce his decision around Labor Day," according to Joey Cresta at Seacoastonline.com.

WI-Gov: Ex-Rep. David Obey, who retired in 2010 at the age of 72 after over forty years in the House, refused to directly answer a question about whether he'd challenge Gov. Scott Walker in a possible recall election. I would be shocked if Obey took the plunge (should the possibility be in the offing), since he well and truly seemed like he was hanging up his spurs last year. Perhaps he's just enjoying the attention.

House:

CA-36: Just what you want on the final weekend before an election: Republican Craig Huey was served with a demand for child support payments from his ex-wife, apparently just before a campaign event on Sunday. And in case you missed it, a new Daily Kos/SEIU poll (performed by PPP over the weekend) showed Democrat Janice Hahn with an eight-point lead. Click the link for full details.

GA-08: Former state Rep. DuBose Porter, who unsuccessfully sought the Democratic gubernatorial nod last year, says he won't run against GOP frosh Austin Scott. He also said he thinks that the Macon area (currently in the 8th) could be swapped with Republican-heavy Thomasville (which is presently in Dem Rep. Sanford Bishop's 2nd CD).

IL-08: Democratic veterans group VoteVets endorsed Tammy Duckworth, who just joined the Democratic field.

IL-10: State Rep. Carol Sente says she's thinking about joining the Democratic field in the new 10th CD and will make a decision by Friday.

NY-09: Dem David Weprin picked up a couple of additional party lines in his bid to win the special election: the Working Families Party unsurprisingly gave him their backing, as did the Independence Party. It's always a little tricky to know whom the IP will back, but generally they like winners who will give (or have given) them money.

OR-01: State Rep. Brad Witt made it official: He'll also try to unseat Rep. David Wu in the Democratic primary. Rather than rehash, check out the OR-01 bullet in the 6/30 Digest to see why I'm not happy about this… and why you probably won't be either.

Other Races:

WI Recall: Late last week, a judge threw out Democratic and Republican challenges to rulings by the state GAB that allowed the recalls to proceed. (Dems had challenged the GOP's signature collection practices; the Republicans had some complaint about the Dems' filing paperwork.) My understanding is that Democrats do not plan to appeal this decision.

Grab Bag:

Passings: Former Dem Rep. Frank Mascara, who represented Pennsylvania's 20th CD from 1995 to 2003, passed away at the age of 81. In 2002, he lost a primary to Jack Murtha in PA-12, after his old seat was eliminated in redistricting.

Redistricting Roundup:

California: Bummer — the redistricting commission won't release a second draft of its maps, which they were expected to do this Thursday. That means we likely have to wait until July 28 before we see anything new — that's the commission's final deadline to produce maps.

North Carolina: An interesting article on North Carolina's redistricting shows you the effects of the federal court jurisprudence which requires zero population deviation in congressional districts. A great example: The entire population of Sampson County was placed into the 2nd CD… except for one person, an 85-year-old woman who would instead live in the 3rd. Many more similar stories at the link.

Wisconsin: We discussed the new Republican congressional plan at length last week, but it's also worth noting that the GOP did a number on the legislative map as well. They really took a hammer to the Senate lines, drawing Democratic recall target Bob Wirch out of his district, and also drawing two Dem recall challengers out of the districts they are seeking as well, Fred Clark and Nancy Nusbaum. You can read more here.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Grayson's running again. (4+ / 0-)
  •  there is no way to change the senate districts (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Judge Moonbox, Odysseus, ArkDem14

    In Wisconsin before the recall elections, as the election dates have already been certified. Super annoying, but predictable that Republicans would do this. Even though new lines won't take effect til next year's general election. Oh well

  •  North Carolina (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Odysseus, ArkDem14, SaoMagnifico, jncca

    I think it creates a mess when you have to split precincts like that. It is incredibly inefficient. That one lady will literally have to have a ballot printed for her, as no other ballot anywhere will contain all of the same races as hers. I know that this is a 1 man 1 vote issue, but if Iowa and West Virginia can get away with it because if the county splitting rules, other states should be allowed about 1000 person variances, under the stipulation that no unnecessary municipalities are split. And by unnecessary, I am referring to cities and towns that are mathematically impossible NOT to split

  •  Maine: People's veto signature drive to (7+ / 0-)

    overturn part of LD1376, which would repeal Maine's election day registration law.

    72 Republican House members voted to enact LD1376 - had they done so three years ago, over 22,000 people in their districts would not have been able to vote in 2008.

    Form follows function -- Louis Sullivan

    by Spud1 on Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 06:39:39 AM PDT

  •  WI-Gov (4+ / 0-)

    Actually, I'd love for Obey to take the plunge. WI is a polarized enough state that we're more likely to get rid of Walker with an elder statesman placeholder type who can appeal to a broad majority than with someone who can legitimately serve out a term of his/her own. What people seem to be missing about Wisconsin amid all of the activism is that it's pretty much evenly divided, and that there's a certain group of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents who have solidified for Walker even if they don't like him, simply because our side has toned up the rhetoric so high. This is why we couldn't beat Prosser (mediocrity of Kloppenburg as a candidate aside) and this is why I'd be surprised if we dislodge more than the two GOP Senate incumbents who are obviously toast (Kapanke and Hopper). Obey is moderate enough that he'd probably beat Walker, but liberal enough to undo most of the damage Walker has caused. When the Republicans effectively control the media, I'd rather have that than a half-term of Feingold being accused of trying to turn Wisconsin into the USSR, stonewalled by the Fitzgeralds, then tossed out of office again. That's going to happen with any Democrat, but the average voter can see that with Obey it's bullshit. I'd love to see Feingold take a shot at Kohl's Senate seat, but Obey might be just what we need for the recall. (Way better than Barrett, who, fair or not, can be accused of being a sore loser if he runs again.)

    And what if that one 85 year old lady in NC-03 dies before the maps are finalized? You'd think they could've at least picked someone younger and healthier. Weird.

    •  Well (4+ / 0-)

      "And what if that one 85 year old lady in NC-03 dies before the maps are finalized? You'd think they could've at least picked someone younger and healthier. Weird."

      What matters is that she lived when the Census was taken.

      •  Maybe so, (0+ / 0-)

        but it's still weird. And underscores how arbitrary "population equity" really is.

        •  The census itself is arbitrary (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jncca, MichaelNY

          People are born and other people die everyday.  In fact, in America today I think literally thousands are born daily, and literally thousands die daily.  And yet the census must be done.  So it's a snapshot in time as to how many human beings reside here.  And likewise a new map is a snapshot in time, appropriately so.

          43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 11:10:26 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Obey would be solid as governor (7+ / 0-)

      A Neil Abercrombie-type. A long-term congressman who, in the twilight of his career, runs for governor as a capatone to a long political career. I can see it, but I don't think Obey will jump in. He would certainly be one of the strongest candidates available to do so, if he chooses to throw his hat into the ring

      •  Obey chickened out against Duffy (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        HoosierD42, MichaelNY

        He's probably the last person I'd want taking the fight to Walker.

        Unapologetic Obama supporter.

        by Red Sox on Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 07:41:26 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  That wasn't what happened (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          escaped vermonter, ArkDem14, lordpet8

          He and Obama had gotten into very public, very heated exchanges when he was the chairman of the appropriations committee. His best friend had just died, and he was over 70. He wasn't scared away by Puffy. Lassa, the last-minute replacement was in a deep hole, and a full year behind Duffy in the campaign, and she lost by 8. Even in the Republican Revolution, Obey was by 7 or 8 points. He was not scared away by Duffy. The poll he paid for (which was never released, wi it is speculation with what it said) probably showed him with a race he would have to campaign for, and after half a century in elected office, he chose to retire. Don't get me writ, it was shitty that he chose to retire so late in the cycle, but it wasn't because he was scared of some Reality Show celebrity.

          •  Sure it is (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            I asked one of his senior aides--their polling showed that Duffy was going to beat them and that's not how Obey wanted to go out. He didn't want to retire--he was fond of telling people in Washington that they'd wind up carrying his body out of the well of the House when he died.

            I wish he would have stayed and fought--Duffy is all hat and no cattle.

            Unapologetic Obama supporter.

            by Red Sox on Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 07:55:43 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I have trouble believing that (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              ArkDem14

              Duffy would have beat Obey, the guy is a bull dog when it comes to campaigning and has been there since 1969. In addition, Duffy was considered by Stu Rothenberg to be one of the most arrogant candidates he met. I could see one of the James Oberstar upsets happening but I just have trouble believing Duffy would have actually beaten Obey given that his victory against Lassa was not exactly overwhelming considering the horrid year for dems.

              •  Maybe he wouldn't have (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                The pity is, we'll never know because Obey backed out. And now Rep. Clownshoes (R-MTV) is in there.

                Unapologetic Obama supporter.

                by Red Sox on Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 08:13:35 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  For now. (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  ArkDem14, Christopher Walker

                  Even though the GOP is trying to save him with the new map, Duffy is so good at being an arrogant boob that I think he's toast no matter what. Too bad for him there wasn't enough of Waukesha County for everyone!

                  Frankly, the GOP could've tried harder to save him, too. I feel like the Congressional map could've been a LOT worse. It's like Indiana in that respect - the legislature was so busy entrenching their own sorry hides that they went half-assed on the Federal map, to their own detriment.

                  As it is, WI-08 is weaker than it was, WI-07 isn't strong enough to save Duffy from himself, WI-01 is still competitive, WI-06 could be competitive as an open seat once Petri retires this decade, and WI-03 is off the table entirely, allowing Kind to run for higher office (if he wants it) without any worries. Seems like they really missed the forest for the trees with that one.

              •  No one should have trouble believing it (6+ / 0-)

                That's what happens in a wave, a lot of normally safe incumbents get beat.  Obey's seat wasn't naturally safe Dem, it was naturally only a Dem lean, and in the wave we lost some of those.  No surprise if Obey was likely to be one of them.

                These things happen.

                43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

                by DCCyclone on Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 08:21:36 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

              •  Duffy/Lassa (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Christopher Walker

                Lassa did not lose by much (and I happily voted for her).  Also, I don't know if her heart was in the run.  I wonder how much the fact she was an expectant mother played into the perceived lack of energy (clearly evident in the WSAW Channel 7 debate).  The fact she was expecting was NOT brought up in the campaign to my knowledge.

                She's an excellent State Senator and should be able to stay in for the long-term there if she wants.  I could even see her as a Lieutenant Governor candidate at some point.  I don't know if the Washington DC lifestyle would appealing to her.

                Citizen from WI-07 (Marathon County)

                by CentralWIGuy on Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 01:03:16 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

      •  good comparison (0+ / 0-)

        Those two may be old guys, but they're feisty old guys.

        SSP poster. 42, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 08:33:12 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  they've both got the facial hair (0+ / 0-)

        too

        18, D, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college next year). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. Put your age and CD here :) -.5.38, -3.23

        by jncca on Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 05:23:08 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  No way (0+ / 0-)

      There is absolutely no way Walker gets recalled. Democrats got destroyed statewide in 2010. Its going to take more than 6 months before they are competitive statewide against a very popular governor (in GOP circles).

      Walker will have unlimited funds at his disposal. He is the Robin to Chris Christie's Batman for douchebag GOP governors. The right will spend whatever it takes to save him.

      After the recalls, Wisconsin democrats need to focus on building the bench for the future. They need to invest in building the party statewide from the ground up. Making sure they are running candidates for anything possible to get elected to. They should be building to start winning back the house seats they lost. Sean Duffy is an incompetant clown. He only won because of the wave and Obey bailed on the district. There is no reason at all Duffy shouldn't be sent back to Ashland next year.

      Its not that I don't think the democrats need to let Walker off the hook, its more that I think the money its going to take would be better spent rebuilding the party and supporting a wide array of candidates than in a pissing match they aren't likely to win.

      •  He can be recalled (12+ / 0-)

        Walker is extremely unpopular and 2010 is over. Whatever capital Republicans had in the state is gone now and Walker could be defeated.

        25, Male, CA-24, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

        by DrPhillips on Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 07:26:15 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I think we'll know soon enough (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Christopher Walker

          If the democrats can pick up 4-5 seats in the recall election, I think the argument can be made that the GOP wave is over. Until then it remains to be seen.

          To simplify it, if you can't beat Prosser, who is complete damaged goods, at the height of the Walker union busting, you can't be expected to take out Walker with 10 times the money to defend himself a year later.

          •  Your take on Prosser is silly (10+ / 0-)

            Prosser's opponent was a sacrificial lamb and weak candidate, and Supreme Court Justices are intrinsically much tougher to take out than partisan officeholders.

            And no, Prosser was NOT complete damaged goods.  The material against him wasn't as damaging with nonpartisan/soft partisan voters as it was with Democrats.

            43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 08:19:07 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Yeah (8+ / 0-)

              I'm surprised to see this line of argument. Even all the merits aside (which you summarize well), if KloJo had swung 3,500 votes, would that mean that Walker was somehow now endangered?

              I guess you could say one of my pet peeves is when people over-read the results of super-close elections. After winning in a statewide recount in 1998 for AG, Eliot Spitzer self-deprecatingly referred to himself as "landslide Spitzer." We all knew that one shitty day was all that stood between us and another term for Dennis Vacco.

              Political Director, Daily Kos

              by David Nir on Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 09:24:04 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Overread?? (0+ / 0-)

                How exactly do you overread this??

                WI-GOV: Dem Loss
                WI-Sen: Dem Loss
                WI-08: Dem Loss
                WI-07: Dem Loss
                WI St Senate: Dem Loss
                WI St House: Dem Loss
                WI Treasurer: Dem Loss
                Supreme Court: Dem Loss

                That's is 8 straight and until that streak is snapped the democrats are on the defensive. Its going to take a mammouth effort and tons of cash to unseat Walker in a recall.

                Its just my opinion but that isn't money well spent when the state party has been absolutely decimated.

                You need to rebuild the party first. You don't do that by pissing away millions on what is likely to be nothing more than a moral victory.

                •  Nice sleight of hand (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  DCCyclone, MichaelNY

                  You switch from Prosser/Kloppenburg to the 2010 elections with hardly a blink.

                  Most polling in Wisconsin shows a dramatically different landscape in the state than just last fall. In fact, if there's still an enthusiasm gap in the state, it's shifted in our favor.

                  Also, WI elections over the past month have had decidedly pro-Democratic results, including the narrow loss for the Supreme Court seat (which had been expected to be a Republican rout). We won the Milwaukee County Executive seat in decisive fashion, as well as a special election for a House seat that had been previously held by a Republican.

                  Things have changed, fast.

                •  Let me explain it in a different way (5+ / 0-)

                  A baseball team that wins a game 5-4 is lucky. A baseball team that wins a game 8-0 is good. The Supreme Court race, decided ultra-narrowly, was in the end like the 5-4 ballgame, not the 8-0 one.

                  Political Director, Daily Kos

                  by David Nir on Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 03:25:02 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

          •  No Walker recall?!? -- What terrible logic (7+ / 0-)

            Prosser was the prohibitive favorite before the protests broke out in Madison.  In fact, the Supreme Court Primary was concluding just as the protests broke out.  Here are the vote percentages for the Spring Supreme Court Primary (pre-protests as well)

            Prosser         54.7%
            Kloppenburg 25.2%
            Stevens        10.8%
            Winnig            9.2%

            Kloppenburg was well on her way to a complete pasting in the Supreme Court race until the protests hit.  But her campaign began before the protests hit, and had to adapt as events unfolded.

            But even after the protests, there never was complete synchronicity between Kloppenburg's election and the recall movement.  Certainly connections were made between the two in the minds of activist Democrats and Liberals, but they are only part of the electorate, not the entire electorate.  And the surge in activism did not begin until the primary was already behind the nominees.

            Prosser has been a name in the state since the late 1970s.  Only people involved with the Justice Department, or perhaps one of the few who took the University Law course at UW-Madison Law School she taught at UW-Madison were likely to know JoAnne Kloppenburg. She was unknown statewide pre-Supreme Court race.

            So the recall movement picked up Kloppenburg's campaign and attempted to drag her across the finish line, but the fact Prosser still won is not a good indication of how a recall effort against Gov. Walker might play out.

            Walker remains mired at about 43% support in statewide polls and support for Walker from households with at least one union member.

            So your defeatist attitude is without merit, Walker is vulnerable, and forcing him to justify himself will distract him from further damaging the state.

            I am proud of my RECALL WALKER bumper sticker and I have never wanted to vote for something so badly in my life.

            In fact, I have to go jump in the shower now because there is a rally at the Capitol at noon protesting Justice Prosser in fact.

            This is what democracy looks like, and Scott Walker will soon understand this in the most personal of ways, an ignominious recall, and a Sarah Palin length tenure in the Governor's mansion.

            "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

            by walja on Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 08:48:39 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  Not a good idea to compare Prosser to Walker (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            ArkDem14, walja, MichaelNY

            Seriously, it almost never happens that an incumbent judge get unseated. Second, its much harder to turn voters out to vote in a highly low profile supreme court election then it will be to turn voters out in a very high profile recall election of a governor who is hated by democrats and independents. The fact that the supreme court election was even close should scare the crap out of Wisconsin republicans. Essentially Klojo lost a tossup election and as we know, we cant win every tossup election. Even a high single digit victory for Prossor would be bad news for Walker since a month before Prosser probably would have won that election around the lines of 67/33. I think things are worse for Scott Walker than people here assume, otherwise the Republican governors association wouldnt have started showing ads for their newly minted governor right after the whole union battle started. People on the inside think Walker is in trouble for sure.

        •  Walker (4+ / 0-)

          His approvals don't look all that bad (43/54 I think) but his problem is that he's gone beyond the point of no return with most of the people who disapprove of him. Contrast this to someone like Snyder or Perdue who could realistically win back a lot of people who weakly disapprove of them.

          SSP poster. 42, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

          by sacman701 on Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 08:37:22 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  the use of the term "NO WAY" is a bit extreme (4+ / 0-)

        check this out

        http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...

        Im not saying it certain that Walker will be recalled but democrats would be favored due to the fact that both democrats they tested hit 50 in the poll. By the way PPP had both democrats trailing last fall 44 to the others 53 and they ended up getting 46/47 to the other opponents 52% so they outperformed the poll. Evidence suggests against the above statement.

      •  Disagree partially. (0+ / 0-)

        I agree that the level of rhetoric on our side is way too high, but Walker is a very public figurehead for the state's problems in a way that Prosser and various Republican State Senators really aren't. Or put it this way: a Supreme Court race is something that only activists can really get excited about. A State Senate race is something that activists and some normal people can maybe get excited about. A gubernatorial recall, on the other hand, is something that

        With that said, I agree that trying to recall everyone everywhere is a fairly stupid tactic on our part because to the average voter it makes us look like a bunch of whiny sore losers. People did vote for the GOP last year, and trying to change that retroactively makes us no better than Darrell Issa when he started the whole "recall Davis" California mess that led to 6 years of Governor Troglodyte, which in turn led to a BIG part of the problem with the national economy today, seeing as how California has a GDP in excess of several continents. Even if we're for the right thing even if the GOP lied about every reason to vote for them, and even if the future of democracy itself is at stake (heard that one before), I have to question that a recall is the best way to express it.

      •  Walker will face a recall election (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        With the level of anger in the state, I am fairly certain that the recall election will take place.  The biggest challenge is the Democrats finding the right candidate who can wallop him definitively.  On average, depending on the level of office, Wisconsin tends to be a very much 50/50 with maybe a slight Democratic edge for national office and a slight Republican edge for state office.  I see the DRA now has 2010 data added.  Parts of Wisconsin who voted 60/40 for Obama also voted 60/40 for Walker and Johnson.  I really think there is a solid roughly 30% on each side, and then the middle 40% that goes with the mood of the particular time.

        Citizen from WI-07 (Marathon County)

        by CentralWIGuy on Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 01:09:31 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  First choice was Feingold, but Obey may be good (0+ / 0-)

      My first choice was Feingold, but when I read about Obey yesterday I was intrigued by that prospect.  He was very active in the early days of the February crisis... somewhere there was a video of him not willing to enter the Capitol because the general citizens were not being allowed access.  He is for the little guy.  Obey has the level of tough resolve that it might take.  Sometimes it takes a bully to put another bully in check.  Feingold would be a great Governor, but his temperament, while tough, is not the "mad as he**" as Obey sometimes can deliver.

      Citizen from WI-07 (Marathon County)

      by CentralWIGuy on Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 12:54:04 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Obey is the best candidate (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        itskevin, jncca

        He has no downside, he has a great record, he was in office for a 1000 years without stepping on his dick... and recalls are a good place for a relative placeholder, not a future leader (see Arnold).

        http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/11/13/21516/201/804/660248

        by tommypaine on Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 02:30:22 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  So Wisconsin (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    how likely is it that the new maps are enacted before the recall elections?  Meaning, even if we take control of the state senate, is it probable we lose it again next year when the new map is in place?

  •  It's a damn shame President Obama (0+ / 0-)

    won't listen to messages like this:

    "Every government degenerates when trusted to the rulers of the people alone. The people themselves are its only safe depositories." - Thomas Jefferson

    by Sagebrush Bob on Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 07:17:45 AM PDT

  •  Asheville, NC. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ArkDem14

    The people in Asheville, NC, are upset that they're being redistricted from the 11th District, where the Democrat Shuler won by a narrow margin, to the 19, which McHenry won by a larger margin. Culturally, Asheville belongs in the mountains, whereas the 10th includes much of the Piedmont, stretching to Gastonia. While the Republicans say they're doing nothing illegal, it's only because the prejudice against hillbillies never rose to the second-class status given Blacks.

    Greg McKendry, Linda Kraeger, Dr. George Tiller, Steven Johns. Victims of Wingnut violence

    by Judge Moonbox on Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 07:45:25 AM PDT

    •  no (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      it's because asheville votes for democrats

      18, D, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college next year). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. Put your age and CD here :) -.5.38, -3.23

      by jncca on Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 05:26:18 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  There is a difference. (0+ / 0-)

        I don't have the county-by-county election data before me, but I should think that if the rest of the Mountains were the same as the Piedmont, there wouldn't be a fuss.

        Greg McKendry, Linda Kraeger, Dr. George Tiller, Steven Johns. Victims of Wingnut violence

        by Judge Moonbox on Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 08:44:39 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Assanine video about Kate Marshall from Nevada GOP (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    drhoosierdem

    http://www.youtube.com/...

    lets win this one please

  •  purely anecdotal, re: CA-36 (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Odysseus, askew, itskevin

    I speculated yesterday that an acquaintance of mine whom I don't hear from often might, in fact, live in CA-36, so I sent an e-mail query. This person is not a political junkie. Her reply:

    "yes, I AM planning to vote against the red-faced, Republican mofo whitey who is against abortion, immigrants, fair wages, tolerance, peace and love."

    So I'm hopeful that it won't be just political junkies who turn out to the polls, today.  But specials are notoriously tricky to predict.

    A Republican is a person who says we need to rebuild Iraq but not New Orleans. - Temple Stark

    by Christopher Walker on Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 08:20:31 AM PDT

    •  Also Mattheson has 59/28 favs (7+ / 0-)

      and 52/33 fav/unfav with republican voters!!!!!

    •  Very nice to see. (5+ / 0-)

      This would absolutely be an uphill battle, but this should definitely force a little sit down between Matheson, Murray, and perhaps even Obama. He would be far more conservative as a senator than I would like, but a vote for our leadership is enough of a reason to support him.

    •  Wow. (5+ / 0-)

      I was skeptical about the first poll as the pollster was iffy, but this confirms it, and I officially want Matheson to run for the Senate. I will say though that with numbers like these he shouldn’t have a problem winning another race for Congress, but honestly I would really like to see him as Senator.

      My political philosophy: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XIX0ZDqDljA

      by drhoosierdem on Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 08:40:52 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I almost collapsed (10+ / 0-)

      Seriously, I felt a bit light-headed for a second (I know, I need to calm down). I do not want to get my hopes up, but it would be so good if he won. A Democrat Senator from Utah.

      25, Male, CA-24, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

      by DrPhillips on Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 08:43:18 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Anyone think the media (5+ / 0-)

      Will treat this with the same breathlessness as an unpopular Linda Lingle in Hawaii? Thought not. Still, neither seat is likely to change hands IMO.

      •  Did Linda Lingle ever poll this well in (3+ / 0-)

        a senate matchup. And did Linda Lingle ever have favorables over 50 with dems like Mattheson has with republicans. I dont think so

        •  If she did we would still dismiss her (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          DCCyclone, MichaelNY

          Particularly in a presidential year. Still say he has a better shot at the gubernatorial race whatever the polls say now.

          •  we shall see (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            The Caped Composer, MichaelNY

            If Herbert is a popular governor compared to Utah people being Mehh on Orin Hatch, he would be more likely to win the senate matchup. Not to mention I would imagine Utah would be a much cheaper state to have a competitive election in then say... Texas. I say the DSCC do everything they can to recruit Mattheson and give this race a try. In addition, if Linda Lingle ever had a favoribility of over 50% with democrats, I for one would most certainly not dismiss her, however she does not have that.

            •  The analogy isn't perfect (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              But is as good as it gets I think. Look how close Alaska was in 2008. Utah is even more Republican and neither Hatch or Chaffetz are likely to be convicted fellons on election day.

              •  You know what I would like to see (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                A GOP insider firm poll this race. EX Magellan, Public Opinion Strategies, Tarrance, Moore information, or many of the other ones I have not mentioned. If Mattheson's deficit is less than 5 in a poll conducted by one of those organizations, then he would be a real threat to republicans in terms of holding the seat.

                •  They might well show the same as PPP (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  And I would still be highly skeptical. It isn't where he polls now that is important but where he would poll after a campaign. I just don't see R+20 Utah electing any Democrat to federal office.

                  •  I don't see Massachussets electing (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    ArkDem14, MichaelNY

                    any Republican to federal office. It may not be as Democratic as Utah is Republican, but it's still a good analogy.

                    19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin for Senate!

                    by ndrwmls10 on Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 11:17:35 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  I don't see the Republican nominee (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      MichaelNY

                      Not campaigning. Plus it won't be a low turnout special election in early January. I don't think people realize how Republican the state is with some of these comments. Ben Nelson and Mark Begich are tied in having the most Republican seats at R+13. Utah is a full 7 points further to the right than that. MA is comparable to those two states. There is no comparable Democratic leaning state to UT.

                      •  Massachusetts was HIGH turnout, not low (4+ / 0-)

                        To refresh your recollection, Scott Brown won that special with midterm-level turnout.  Seriously.

                        Your skepticism is not unwarranted, but you understate how strong a name "Matheson" is in Utah.  Sure it's possible that a 45-45 race today could end up a 55-45 defeat in November 2012, but Matheson has a plausible path to victory.

                        Understand Obama and national Dems are not going to be any more disliked in Utah in fall 2012 than they are now.  So campaigning by the GOPers will have its limits.  Utah at this very moment is a state where if dislike of our party isn't enough to sink Matheson out of the gate, it will not by itself sink him on election day.

                        43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

                        by DCCyclone on Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 12:11:34 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  It just seems like the opposite argument (2+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          DCCyclone, MichaelNY

                          Everybody seems to make about Brown.

                          •  And there's some wishfulness vs. Brown (2+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY, SaoMagnifico

                            We all want to believe Brown will lose, and sure enough he could, the same as Matheson could lose.

                            But let's get real, Scott Brown is "lean R" right now.  He'll stay that way unless and until a Dem candidate emerges who proves to be strong by the conventional metrics.  And against a weak Dem candidate, Brown can move to "likely R" fairly quick.

                            States still do go against type in voting behavior sometimes.

                            And partly you have to forgive any perhaps irrational exuberance on Matheson by realizing these are 2 polls showing stunningly better numbers than even the most optimistic among us thought possible.  Virtually all of us assumed polls like these would have Matheson down 5-10 points at best, perhaps even by double digits, in a Senate race.  That he's tied or even leading beats our expectations by a lot, and it's fair not to dismiss it anymore than we would caution against dismissing bad polling for our side in a race we expect to win.

                            43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

                            by DCCyclone on Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 06:52:12 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

          •  I don't know about that. (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            The Caped Composer, MichaelNY

            I don't see anybody here treating him as a sure thing. Instead, what might normally be a five or ten percent chance of him winning looks to be far greater. Perhaps that will change if and when he becomes a candidate and/or fundamentals become clearer.

            The difference between Lingle and Matheson is that, while both are their team's strongest candidates, Lingle isn't really a strong candidate, while Matheson looks to be just that. She's not particularly popular, if not outright unpopular, and she hasn't even come close to leading any match ups that have been done, at least as far as I know. Even if Lingle were in a much stronger position, like Matheson is, she would still face an uphill climb. But she's not in any such position, so her chances of winning, should she run, become extremely difficult.

            •  Perhaps I shouldn't have indulged in hypotheticals (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              But I was trying to come up with a mirror image people can relate to. Maybe Scott Brown was more appropriate to begin with. But I still think even his example undersells the challenge in Utah whatever Matheson currently polls.

        •  No, in fact the opposite (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ndrwmls10, itskevin, ArkDem14, MichaelNY

          She is underwater in all polling going back at least to last fall pre-election.  Most Hawaii voters don't like her and are glad she's gone.

          And she fares even worse in trial heats than in her favorables/approvals.  She's down double-digits to everyone, sometimes failing to break 40%.

          And yet the political media takes her seriously.

          43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 11:14:40 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  He's likely close in the gov race as well (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      I'm sure they polled those numbers and are waiting.  If that's the case he might decide to run for tat instead of senate to avoid the sticky wicket that is being a democratic senator from utah (for those that think ben nelson's bad...)

      •  Matheson will get a pass (8+ / 0-)

        Matheson will get a pass in my book for whatever the hell he wants to vote against us on. Seriously. Democratic Senator from Utah. The optics of that would be awesome.

        And Matheson, generally speaking, does a good job of being a conservative Democrat--which I define as reminding conservatives why Democrats are good, instead of just badmouthing the party for political points (a la Boren or Nelson) He'll still be waaay to the left of Hatch or Chaffetz.

        And holy moly, dude's popular. Hatch is probably going to get bounced at the convention anyway, and I think Matheson's gotta like the looks of +5 against Chaffetz.

        Kansan by birth, Californian by choice and Gay by the Grace of God.

        by arealmc on Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 10:30:47 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  As long Mattheson doesnt vote for stuff like (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          itskevin, LordMike, MichaelNY

          Ryancare. I really dont care how he votes.

          •  He already voted against RyanDon'tCare (8+ / 0-)

            Dems unanimously voted "no" on the Ryan budget.  Yes, you read that right, UNANIMOUSLY!  :-)

            43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 11:18:02 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  true, but (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            let's say, just hypothetically, he was the 60th senator when HCR was going and up in 2010.  he voted no in our reality, so it's not a stretch of the imagination that he would vote no in this hypothetical reality.  If the originial HCR bill voted on in december, that passed in out reality with 60 votes failed, it's possible that HCR would have been abandoned.  One of the main reasons why the whitehouse went forward with reconciliation was because it had already passed the senate, they just needed to maneuver around the scott brown wrinkle.  had it failed, it would have likely brought matheson a primary challenge, as his no vote in our reality brought such a challenge.  This would have likely infuriated the base, destroyed, or at least tarnished HCR even more (if the whitehouse went forward with reconciliation without it ever passing the senate) and created a nasty primary, likely with national attention.  

            my point is, should he run, will we be fine with the possibility that he will be the crucial vote on major legislation at some point in the future.  sorry if this seems negative or defeatist, certainly sen matheson would be better than sen chavets or whatever his name is, but i believe all angles should be examined and that includes the negative ones.  

        •  As long as he's not an ass about it.. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Then I'm fine with it.  The reason why Blanche Lincoln and Ben Nelson have been in trouble with voters is that they became asshole obstructionists and no one likes hostage takers.

          GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

          by LordMike on Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 02:34:27 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Holy shit (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone, MichaelNY

      This is actually a tossup race if Rep. Matheson runs.

      Independent, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 11:42:10 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Is it just me (0+ / 0-)

      Or do you think PPP might be juicing this poll to help push the GOP in Utah to not to try and mess too much with the lines of Matheson's district.

      If they can scare the GOP enough into thinking that Matheson could win statewide the Utah GOP might just decide to draw him a safe SLC district and be done with him.

      Could be the mother of all head fake polls here.

      Help raise money for disaster relief efforts by searching the web & give the profits from your web searches to charity instead of Google! Click here for Search+Win with Music for Relief

      by izengabe on Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 11:51:55 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  A Really Strange Story Involving Paul Ryan (0+ / 0-)

    This might be slightly off topic for this part of the site, but I figured I'd give it a shot, since it might relate to elections down the line.

    Read this link from Talking Points Memo concerning the encounter between Paul Ryan, a hedge fund manager by the name of Clifford Arness, a University of Chicago business school professor named John Cochrane, a Rutgers University business school professor named Susan Feingberg, and two $350 bottles of wine. (Apparently, this story came out last week, but his two dinner companions weren't revealed until yesterday.) Then read this from Matt Yglesias and this from Brad DeLong. Then try to tell me there isn't some sort of bigger problem than any of us had realized.

    I don't even come close to having the academic chops to say whether there's some sort of collusion occurring, but would it really surprise anyone? And if there is, how do we stop it? The biggest problem in fighting the Ryan plan, as I see it, is getting the media to stop giving him and guys like him the benefit of the doubt. But if it looks as if he's got support from the academic community in any way, for anything, I don't know what to think.

    •  That's not my read on it at all (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone, LordMike

      What I'm seeing is a guy who is only concerned with his rich friends and their big businesses, and he'll break a couple $350 bottles of wine with them while spitting in the eye of the poor.

      Independent, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 11:44:52 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  But if you think that, why (0+ / 0-)

        does it seem so hard to believe that he could be trying to give them fake academic support for their talking points? Maybe that's not what he's doing, of course; I'll be the first to admit that I don't come close to having the academic chops of these guys.

        I don't want to sound like a conspiracy theorist, but I've noticed what seems to be an odd trend of academics and media types repeating the same stuff that politicians say, and vice versa. Take this Op/Ed from Gary Becker, John Taylor, and George Schultz about spending and taxes. It was published in The Wall Street Journal around the time of the possible government shutdown, but it sounds eerily similar to the austerity equals expansion arguments of today. Was that the point? If am reading people like DeLong and Krugman and others correctly, there's no model that these people are working with. It's basically some sort of combination of "spending equals tax increases down the line, and tax increases pull from the private sector, so we can't spend as much now" with the usual talking points. Or, for a more recent example, look at the claim that overregulation is killing the recovery, despite no prominent examples of regulations coming from the administration, which seems to be featured in an editorial every five minutes. Perhaps I am missing something obvious, but it does seem like there's a list of talking points these people are reading from.

        •  Everybody... (0+ / 0-)

          Has academic support for their talking points. I don't think it's a game-changer. You can find any schmuck with a Ph.D to say anything you want about any proposal. Hell, Jerome Corsi has a Ph.D.

          Independent, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

          by SaoMagnifico on Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 01:53:24 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Krugman says it better than I ever could. (0+ / 0-)

            Take a look at his latest blog post. I won't copy everything, because it's short and you can read it yourself, but this basically sums it up:

            All kinds of novel and implausible effects — effects that weren’t in any of the models they were using before the crisis — are invoked to explain why we’re in a sustained slump; strange to say, all of these newly invented models just happen to imply the need for tax cuts and a shrunken welfare state.

            He's far more of an economic authority that I could ever be, and he has a lot more to lose, financially and professionally, than I do by making such a charge.

            I wouldn't deny that there's no shortage of hacks out there willing to say whatever someone wants them to say if they are paid enough. But this isn't some random guy from some no name school. He seems to be a fairly well known person, at least in academic circles, at one of the best business schools in the world, who just happens to be meeting with the point man for the Republican effort to dramatically change the social safety net. It'd be one thing if they were old friends or former colleagues or even lived in the same state; perhaps there is in fact some connection I am not aware of. But I don't think of that is true.

            I'm not really sure what to make of this, aside from the fact that the effort to roll back the welfare state goes a lot deeper than I might have imagined.

  •  New Florida prez poll 42% Obama 46% Romney (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, James Allen, MichaelNY

    Sunshine State News / Voter Survey Service (R) poll

    http://www.sunshinestatenews.com/...

    not too much to worry about, the polling firm had very wild swings in the Florida governor's race last fall.

    •  Running against Rick Scott (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Do you expect that, whomever the nominee is, Obama will basically be running against Rick Scott in the Florida part of his campaign?

      How effective would such a strategy be, trying to equate the GOP nominee with Scott?

      •  for the same of clarity (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        The Caped Composer, MichaelNY

        Obama could just campaign against a composite character that combines Scott, Bachmann, Palin, and other nutters.. sort of like the "Dole-Gingrich Congress" stuff from 1996.

        Or suggest that if (x) is President, he'll govern like (y). Where x is the nominee and y is the local unpopular nutter.

        The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

        by RBH on Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 10:45:44 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I know everyone is hyped up about Scott (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCCyclone, MichaelNY

        ruining life for republicans running in Florida but I dont think its that simple. Maybe he will make democrats more enthusiastic, but I think the Floridians would be more likely to show their anger by voting out Scott in 2014 in the primary or the general rather than taking it out on the republican nominee. Generally voter anger works down the ballot not up.

        •  I think that's mostly right, but... (3+ / 0-)

          ...Rick Scott gives Obama and Dems something to talk about to remind voters they don't like Republicans.

          And reminding voters they don't like Republicans, and why, is a big piece of the puzzle of winning next year.

          43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 11:20:38 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I still dont see it working (0+ / 0-)

            voters arent going to think that because scott is awful the republican nominee is awful. After an entire campaign with tons of ads and money and gotv i feel as though the proportion of sunshine state voters who will be voting for obama simply bc they hate scottt is .0000000000001%

    •  Sunshine State News is a terrible pollster. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone, LordMike

      Independent, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 11:45:10 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  problems with this poll (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sacman701, itskevin, jncca, MichaelNY

      This poll is based on how the 2010 electorate looked.  This poll assumes an equal amount of Republicans and Democrats will turn out (same as 2010).  This poll assumes 48% of all voters will be 60 and older.  This poll assumes 77% of all voters will be 45 and older.  This poll actually predicts an electorate that is older than what showed up in 2010.

      And to top it off, the first question they ask is about the economy, creating a level of bias against the President.

      I will completely agree that if Florida's electorate in 2012 looks like it did in 2010, Obama will lose Florida.

  •  WI-Recall: Dem Senators have a lot of cash (7+ / 0-)

    The campaign finance reports for the elections with the Democratic incumbents have come out and the Dems have romped:
    http://www.jsonline.com/...

    For the one seat considered vulnerable, Jim Holperin's,  Jim's numbers are "$337,843 in receipts, $206,138 in spending and $147,858 in cash on hand" and his likely opponent, Kim Simac,  reported "$22,251 raised, $2,191 spent and $53,616 cash on hand. The report shows $33,556 cash on hand at the beginning of the reporting period."  So Holperin is well situated to take his seat.  These finance reports are in great contract to the Republican Senators, many of whom were out raised or who have less cash on hand than their Democratic challengers.

    All Wisconsin, All the Time, Social Democrat, currently WI-05/SD-05/AD-13 (Home), NY-22 (College), formerly Oxford East (Study Abroad)

    by glame on Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 08:38:01 AM PDT

  •  Landrieu (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Judge Moonbox, itskevin

    I assume the next to last sentence should read "...she was one of eight Democratic statewide elected officials in Louisiana."

    SSP poster. 42, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

    by sacman701 on Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 08:41:10 AM PDT

  •  Going back to previous redistricting efforts in NC (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    tietack, Odysseus

    Say whatever ya want about NC, this state has been redistricted over and over and over again in the past bookoo years by dems that have controlled the state no differently than the repubs are doing now in their own favor.

    You reap what you sow.  No..I know, that's not a popular thing to say here, of course.  But, if you do a little researching on this redistricting thing on the Web like I have in the states that suddenly went from blue to red in the state legislatures, it's hard to start whining about something going on against we dems that we've been a part of against the repubs in the past.

    My take?  There needs to be another...better...way to set up both state AND federal legislative districts in states.

    Nope...no clue how to accomplish that.

    -- **Nothing sucks more than that moment during an argument when you realize you're wrong.**

    by r2did2 on Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 08:51:43 AM PDT

  •  The State of Southern California? (0+ / 0-)

    http://www.ajc.com/...

    Won't go anywhere, but it sounds like it might be a swing state.  Obama won a lot of those counties (e.g., San Diego, Fresno, etc.) but Kerry didn't.

    •  Speaking of secessionist movements... (0+ / 0-)

      Isn't Phoenix pretty blue but drowned out by its red suburbs like Jacksonville?  Has there ever been a movement to have Phoenix secede from Maricopa County?

      •  Phoenix or "Greater Phoenix"? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike

        Phoenix is just a city.  But, folks that live there include any number of cities when they say "phoenix...Mesa, Glendale and so forth.  There is no divide when you drive from one to the other or into Phoenix.  It's all one, kinda.  It's a lot like the Bay Area in N. California.  If you start in San Jose and drive to San Francisco along Bayshore (the 101), you never leave city, really.  

        -- **Nothing sucks more than that moment during an argument when you realize you're wrong.**

        by r2did2 on Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 09:04:02 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Phoenix (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ArkDem14, Christopher Walker

        Phoenix itself is light-blue and its suburbs vary. Most of the westside burbs like Peoria and Glendale are still pretty red, and Sun City is really red. On the east side heavily Mormon Mesa is red, and Gilbert is pretty red. Tempe is light-blue because of ASU, and Chandler is purple. Scottsdale is weird because it goes forever north-south but is only a couple miles wide east-west in most spots, and the newer north end is red while the older south end is purple.

        When I was there (1993-98) there was some talk of the east valley breaking off and calling itself Rio Salado county, but that never went anywhere. There is recent precedent for county splitting in AZ, as La Paz county broke off from Yuma county about 30 years ago.

        SSP poster. 42, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 09:40:33 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  California native here.... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Zack from the SFV

      Not living currently in California...but, for the 19 years I did live there, this "split" into North and South was always a subject of conversation for many.  Personally...I can see why that is because there is a HUGE difference between the southern part of the state and the northern (including the "Big Valley" in the northern part)...and, that includes Fresno, of course.

      But, that's not gonna happen.  The difference in the two parts of the state is vivid if not from a standpoint of lifestyles, most certainly from a political standpoint.

      Also, with regard to what areas all across the country that Obama won....that's really not pertinent today.  Lots of politicos want to make it so, but it's not.  

      -- **Nothing sucks more than that moment during an argument when you realize you're wrong.**

      by r2did2 on Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 08:59:54 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  nothing will come of this (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Zack from the SFV

      This a bit of a rallying cry for republicans in the state and away to get your name in something other than the local paper. Especially if you are planning on running for statewide office.  Remember that California has five media markets with over 1 million people.
       It is interesting to note that the counties that Stone is proposing to be a new state would be the single poorest state in the union.

      ex-SSP. Central Califonia.

      by hankmeister on Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 09:41:42 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  also their idea of "South California" is (5+ / 0-)

           an obvious gerrymander to make it more GOP friendly.

             They would put Fresno and Inyo in SoCal but leave out Los Angeles, Ventura and Santa Barbara. Yeah, right...

             The real sectional split in CA politics (but not baseball) is east-west (coastal counties vs inland counties) not north-south. As an Angeleno I have more in common with Santa Cruz, San Francisco and Sonoma than with Inyo, Kern or Modoc.

        I'm not a Limousine Liberal; I am a Prius Progressive

        by Zack from the SFV on Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 10:12:10 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  I put it into DRA (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sacman701

      Obama did win it: 51.3-48.7 but Brown lost it 44.5-55.5.

    •  This'll fail like all the others. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      It's just an unctuous sub-culture of conservatives in CA who want "their" California back.

      Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo! So little time, so much to know!

      by KingofSpades on Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 08:01:36 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  UT-SEN: I hope Matheson runs (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, MichaelNY

    It would be an uphill climb, but even a competitive race would be good news for Dems, just because we have so few pickup opportunities. I think it would be worth it, even though we would likely lose the House seat.

  •  NV Sen. (8+ / 0-)

    From Ralston:

    RepBerkley makes $1.2M raised n 2Q official, reports $2.5M COH. Doubt @SenDeanHeller can match that, but we'll know soon.

    My political philosophy: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XIX0ZDqDljA

    by drhoosierdem on Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 09:25:33 AM PDT

    •  An indication of good things to come? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      drhoosierdem

      There are certainly limits to this sort of thinking, but things like online prediction markets or very informal reading of the tea leaves are one way to try to get a handle on what might happen in the future. The elections of 2012 are many months away, so a lot good change between now and then, but my general view of things suggests that Democrats are, at worst, holding even or only slightly behind Republicans, or at best, leading them, sometimes by a lot. This is true for both fund raising and candidate recruitment.

      Like I said, a lot good change between now and then. And perhaps the group that is contributing to candidates--mostly well off individuals and organizations, rather than nobodies like me who give relatively scant amounts--isn't the best indicator, as it's not suffering nearly as much as many other groups. But is it really that bizarre to think that (a) the climate might be better for Democrats in 2012 (and not just by default) and/or (b) the economy might be better, something probably necessary for Democrats in general to do well?

    •  I find it funny (9+ / 0-)

      that Dean Heller's lead was bigger before he got was appointed and now that he got the senate seat he's trailing by 2 in a GOP robo poll. Generally senate races do not shift pollwise this early meaning people are obviously very pissed at Dean Heller. I think a lot of people did not wanted him getting appointed to the seat and are in addition not please with his vote on medicare. Shelly Berkley btw is an awesome candidate, I look forward to seeing this campaign in motion.

    •  Wow (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      drhoosierdem, KingofSpades

      Hell of a haul there. So glad Ralston is back on the job.

      Independent, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 11:48:10 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  She cashing out on the casino industry? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ndrwmls10, MichaelNY

      I kinda see this race as a race between two major special interests in NV.  The mining in the north and the gaming in the South and in Reno.

      Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo! So little time, so much to know!

      by KingofSpades on Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 08:03:01 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Heller got 1.05 million. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Good, but the prediction that a Senate seat would get him more money than her was definitely off.

      Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo! So little time, so much to know!

      by KingofSpades on Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 08:39:58 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  PPP for D-Kos: Dems +6 on generic ballot (5+ / 0-)

    48D/42R

    http://dailykos.com/...

    This has been a pretty stable lead going back a couple months:

    6/16: 47D/43R (D+4)
    6/2: 46D/43R (D+3)
    5/12: 47D/40R (D+7)

    •  That's nice to see. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, DCCyclone, MichaelNY

      I was going to say that Democrats are still behind overall, but from the look of this, it's only Rasmussen that consistently shows us behind.

      •  Only PPP and Ras poll this most of the time (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        itskevin, LordMike, MichaelNY

        I won't feel like generic ballot polling is reliable on the state of things until we see other polling on it, which we probably won't see until next year.  Even then, we might see less generic ballot polling than in the midterms since Presidential polling will suck up most of the oxygen.  Polling costs money, and more Prez polling means some other things get polled a little less.

        43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 11:32:19 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Too bad Landrieu (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Christopher Walker, MichaelNY

    is a corporatist but I guess she's the best we can do in Louisiana.  I don't know how good her chances are though... Jindal will be done in January 2014 and he'll be looking for higher office... but we need to try to keep Landrieu's seat in our column as long as possible because it's one of the few in the country that has never been held by a Republican.

  •  Pon Raul not running for re-election (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Zack from the SFV

    regardless of his presidential campaign.  this will certainly increase speculation of an indie bid for president.  Also, another of his sons, Pobert Raul was thinking of running for senate in texas, maybe he'll run for his dad's seat.  nothing says hatred of government and government as usual like a political dynasty spanning two states.

    http://politicalwire.com/...

    •  i'm so glad the (0+ / 0-)

      pon raul thing caught on. it also makes him appear hispanic :P

      18, D, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college next year). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. Put your age and CD here :) -.5.38, -3.23

      by jncca on Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 05:33:11 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  OR-01 (0+ / 0-)

    yeah, disappointing, but I'll probably end up voting for Witt if by a miracle I'm still in the district next spring.  

    "every time we start a pie fight a wingnut gets his wings"- MinistryofTruth -6.38, -4.15

    by James Allen on Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 10:09:33 AM PDT

  •  NY-09: NYC Independence Party is Fulani controlled (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    The anti-Semitic Lenora Fulani and her band of psycho therapy nutbags controll the NYC Independence Party.

    Taking the line in NYC has caused problems for pols in the past. Mayor Bloomberg gotten a lot of grief for getting into bed with Fulani's crew during his Mayoral runs.

    Also in other NY-09 news, Ed Koch has endorsed the GOP's Bob Turner and is calling for Jewish voters in NY-09 to support Turner as a message to Obama his policy towards Israel:
    http://www.nypost.com/...

    He's saying the race has a potential to be a Scott Brown moment on Obama's Israel policy.

    Help raise money for disaster relief efforts by searching the web & give the profits from your web searches to charity instead of Google! Click here for Search+Win with Music for Relief

    by izengabe on Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 10:16:03 AM PDT

  •  More Q2 numbers! (4+ / 0-)

    WV-Sen
    Manchin raised 516,000. Now at 1.3 million in his war chest.

    MO-Sen
    McCaskill raised 1.4 million. Now at 3 million in her war chest.

    19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 11:04:43 AM PDT

  •  Ed Koch being well.. Ed Koch. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ArkDem14, NMLib, MichaelNY

    Okay it's Ed Koch.  What he says usually has something to do with what side of the bed he wakes up on in the morning and it isn't that unusual for him to endorse and denounce everyone for often head scratching reasons.

    New York post says he endorsed Turner.

    http://www.nypost.com/...

    But this is a Murdoch publication so I'll believe the New York Observer article where Koch "not endorses" Weprin and threatens to endorse Turner.

    http://www.politickerny.com/...

    His primary reason is Israel.  Anger over Obama restating what has essentially been US policy for decades.   Which of course means nothing since Obama (unlike George HW Bush) is still protecting Israel at the UN and not threatening Israel's foreign aid.  Meaning again no shift in US policy against Israel compared to that of his predecessors.

    While I view the logic of declaring Obama as anti-Israel as flawed you could at least make a rational argument for it or against it.  There is however no rational argument that David Weprin is anti-Israel given he takes a very hard line in support of Israel.  Making Koch's argument iffy at best.

    Where it becomes bizarre is Koch is not in fact endorsing Turner.  In fact being still in part a liberal Democrat he conditions his enorsement of Turner on Turner reputiating Republican proposals to cut  Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security.  Which of course he'd never do.  In fact has even Olympia Snowe come out against cutting Medicaid?

    If Turner doesn’t take these positions, “then I’m just going to stay out of the whole race,” said Koch.

    When I asked if there was any chance he’d endorse the Democratic candidate, Koch said, “No.” Why?

    Looks pretty cut and dry.  But given that it is Ed Koch who is not only erratic but enjoys the sound of his own voice don't be surprised if he claims to have supported Weprin after Weprin wins.  And has a few quotes to back it up.

    •  I think Koch is trying to use this election to (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jncca, MichaelNY

      send a message to Obama on Israel. Basically he views it as a no lose proposition since this distict will most likely be eliminated in 2012 (so its not like Turner would be in office here very long).

      Remember this has nothing to do with Weprin or his views on Israel.

      Koch feels if Jews in NY-09 vote overwhelmingly for Turner it could be a wake up call to Obama on Israel and might scare him to enacting a more pro-Israeli stance on issues.

      Weprin should be scared if this line of thinking catches on.  Remember this district is made up of the more conservative religious and immigrant Jews who tend to be more wary of Obama.

      Help raise money for disaster relief efforts by searching the web & give the profits from your web searches to charity instead of Google! Click here for Search+Win with Music for Relief

      by izengabe on Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 11:43:41 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  NC senate map released (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    DKE! “Music speaks what cannot be expressed, soothes the mind and gives it rest, heals the heart and makes it whole, flows from heaven to the soul.” anonymous

    by aggou on Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 12:19:01 PM PDT

    •  Well, a few racial gerrymanders. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Doesn't get rid of that many white Dems.  That guy in district 1 is ok under these lines.  This is just a cursory analysis, roguemapper will know much more.

      Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo! So little time, so much to know!

      by KingofSpades on Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 08:08:54 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Mhmm. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        I'm in the 29th district on this map. I think it's 65.6 McCain? Most R district I believe.

        DKE! “Music speaks what cannot be expressed, soothes the mind and gives it rest, heals the heart and makes it whole, flows from heaven to the soul.” anonymous

        by aggou on Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 09:46:30 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  NH-Gov (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Lynch safe otherwise GOP with the lead.

    http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/...

  •  Now Guaranteed: Democrats Will Lose the Senate (6+ / 0-)

    What else are we supposed to think when we hear the news that John Cornyn has tapped Carly Fiorina as the NRSC's new vice chair? What are we going to lose, 15 seats? Oh man, we are so screwed.

  •  Ralston say Heller's Q2 numbers are good. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, MichaelNY, James Allen

    I don't think they are. He started much earlier than Berkley and has the advantage of being a sitting Senator. He raised 1.05 million and has 2.3 million COH.

    19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 01:13:02 PM PDT

  •  WI-Recalls (10+ / 0-)

    New ad from State Senator Jim Holperin attacking his opponent Kim Simac:

    President Barack Obama and Democrats: Moving America forward since 2008.

    by ehstronghold on Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 01:25:55 PM PDT

  •  Victory in the Debt Ceiling Negotiations? (5+ / 0-)

    I've only been reading the headlines today, so I am not how David Kurtz says what McConnell proposed equals a victory for Obama. Read this and tell me if you agree with his reasoning.

    •  It's definitely a victory... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone, MichaelNY

      The GOP is giving up and punting... actually, more like a missed field goal.

      GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

      by LordMike on Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 04:13:01 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  What are the odds of a good deal? (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, DCCyclone, MichaelNY

        Are we going to get a clean bill? If so, well, Obama's doing a lot better than I might give him credit for.

        On a related note, I don't know if you saw my post on this last week, but Ezra Klein describedMichael Ettlinger of the Center for American Progress arguing that the debt ceiling stand off was impeding hiring. The key part for me was this:

        Businesses in this country hire millions of people each month, and if that caution is causing just 100,000 or 200,000 fewer hires than would otherwise occur, that would show up as a large impact on net job creation. And that may be just what’s happening.

        This may or may not be true. But if it is, it's pretty significant. It's the difference between a likely loss and a likely win, and if the sort of conditions that would allow for a likely win (i.e. 200,000 or so additional jobs per month) are happening, they could turn into the sort of conditions that allow for him to win in a blow out.

      •  My opinion (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, MichaelNY

        I wouldn't trust anything McConnell proposes since we all know his #1 priority is to make sure Obama is defeated in 2012. This little scheme he's proposing is designed to inflict maximum political pain possible so they can continue whining the president isn't doing anything on the debt.

        (Not to say cutting Medicare/Medicaid isn't politically dangerous but removing Obama and the Senate Democrats from the equation post 2012 means the GOP can push through whatever Paul Ryan is scheming.)

        Plus you know...

        “It gives the president 100 percent of the responsibility for increasing the debt limit if he chooses not to have any spending reductions,” Tennessee Sen. Lamar Alexander, the Republican Conference chairman, told reporters Tuesday.

        Read more: http://www.politico.com/...

        Proves the GOP is more interested in being in the peanut gallery these days.

        President Barack Obama and Democrats: Moving America forward since 2008.

        by ehstronghold on Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 04:37:31 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  It's a policy win.... (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          DCCyclone, MichaelNY

          ...and their demagoguery is no different than it would have been even with a deal.  It's weak sauce from them.  They capitulated and the results will no longer be so bad.  In addition, it won't end up crippling the economy with massive spending cuts now.

          GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

          by LordMike on Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 04:55:10 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Is there something I am missing here? (0+ / 0-)

            Are we expecting Obama to go along with what McConnell proposed? Or is this simply a signal that that the Republican wet dream won't happen, and that something we might might like or even love will happen?

            •  Obama has already agreed to the plan.... (0+ / 0-)

              ...according to Greg Sargent

              GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

              by LordMike on Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 05:23:56 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  In exchange for nothing? (0+ / 0-)

                Are there any substantive policy provisions here?

                On a related note, I'm convinced that my Twitter and online news habits need to be revised, because I am either way, way behind or out of the loop entirely.

                •  There is no "deal" per se... (0+ / 0-)

                  but the WH is OK with something like this, although they are couching it with a lot of "concern" to make sure the talks don't blow up.

                  Talkingpointsmemo.com and the Plum Line at the WaPo are great sources for political news.  They have lots of details.

                  GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

                  by LordMike on Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 06:02:45 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Three things about the White House (4+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    LordMike, MichaelNY, itskevin, NMLib

                    First, they sincerely want a deal.  They think it's good policy and puts them on the strongest political footing to have a real deal.  It really does take the issue completely off the table, no one can hit him on deficits or debt anymore if the GOP agrees to a deal.  The GOP will still try, but it will fail miserably.

                    Second, they need to keep up appearances for public consumption.  Declaring victory and going home, looking as if they don't care about a deal, makes them look cynical and plays into the GOP's meme that Obama is just posturing anyway.

                    Third, no question if this is how it ends up, the WH will be happy.  It really is a victory, period.  It's not their first choice of an outcome, but it's a great outcome for them.

                    43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

                    by DCCyclone on Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 06:59:59 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Well, there will be no deal now... (0+ / 0-)

                      The dems will not vote for anything and the GOP will not vote for anything at this point.  They are going to the mattresses, so Obama will have to live with something like this.  But, he can still hold out for more, and he should.  He might get a full clean debt limit bill after all.  I'm amazed he's gotten this far.  I've NEVER in my life seen a republican lose a policy battle, much less fold like this.... never in my 25 years in politics.  Bush Sr.'s tax thing was the closest thing to a GOP capitulation on policy.

                      GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

                      by LordMike on Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 07:45:26 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                    •  I doubt Obama will be blamed for the debt ceiling (3+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      sawolf, MichaelNY, NMLib

                      increasing if the economy is on a stronger footing, much in the same way most people wouldn't care that the deficit is really large as long as they have a job and/or don't feel worried about losing it. If this potential deal allows him to avoid something far worse, something that would violently shake an already fragile economy, it's absolutely, positively a good thing. He'll win far more votes from a relatively stronger economy than he would lose for an increasing debt ceiling.

                    •  Honestly... (2+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      MichaelNY, DCCyclone

                      The one who really gets screwed by this deal is Boehner, he can't say yes without inciting the wrath of the teabaggers, but he can't say no without looking like an idiot for disagreeing with a plan his counterpart in the senate came up with.

                      Can't believe I'm saying this, but thank you Mitch McConnell!

                      Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 24 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

                      by NMLib on Wed Jul 13, 2011 at 12:54:26 AM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

  •  NC Gen Assembly Redistricting (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY
    Statewide, the new state Senate boundaries the GOP's proposed would likely have given the party a 26-24 majority in that chamber following the 2008 election, assuming voting patterns evident in that year's U.S. Senate race held.

    Republicans would have reaped that majority despite collectively losing the full-chamber, 50-seat statewide balloting with 44 percent of the vote to Democrat's 53 percent.

    The current district plan rewarded Democrats with 30 N.C. Senate seats in 2008, which at 60 percent of the available representation was also disproportionate to their party's showing that year.

    Last year's election was so favorable for Republicans that the new district lines would likely have improved their actual showing in state Senate races by only three seats, giving them 34 instead of the 31 they actually won.

    http://www.heraldsun.com/...

    "America will never be destroyed from the outside. If we falter and lose our freedoms, it will be because we destroyed ourselves." — Abraham Lincoln

    by bear83 on Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 09:35:58 PM PDT

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