Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos & SEIU (7/7-10, registered voters, 1/14-16 (PDF) in parens):
Barack Obama (D): 50 (51)
Michele Bachmann (R): 37 (33)
Undecided: 13 (17)
(MoE: ±3.1%)
For our rotating question this week, we decided to ask a simple Obama vs. Bachmann head-to-head matchup nationwide. Of course, there's no such thing as a true national election in this country—just 51 individual races all aggregated together. And when national numbers are close, they start to be a lot less useful. But when the margin is wide, as it is here, that tells you something.
And in this case, it tells you Michele Bachmann is in a serious hole against Obama. Note the trendlines, which date all the way back to January. Ordinarily, such musty trendlines might not be that interesting, but in this case, I think they are. The presidential race has changed a lot over the last six months. When PPP first asked about Bachmann, she was seen by many as a joke who wouldn't run. Now she's a serious force in the GOP field, and her stock (and poll numbers) are on the rise.
But what hasn't changed is as important as what has. The economic situation (particularly the jobs news) has been mediocre-to-bad for quite some time, and particularly bad of late. Yet in spite of this, the president's numbers have barely budged. It's even more stark when you look at this helpful poll aggregator from Talking Points Memo:
Two big questions remain, of course: What is Obama's floor, and what is Bachmann's ceiling? Obviously if the economy worsens, all bets are off regarding the former. But if the current environment holds, Bachman's ascent seems destined to stall out. For instance, Obama "only" leads among black voters in our poll by an 80-17 margin. Given that he beat John McCain 95-4 among this demographic, it's hard to see Bachmann doing much better there. Furthermore, 7% of Democrats and 20% of independents are still undecided, and Bachmann can't possibly get all of those votes.
I think a Bachmann vs. Obama matchup could wind up being a lot tighter than we might expect—and a lot tighter than we'd like. I just don't think an LBJ vs. Goldwater-style blowout is in the cards. But right now, the national calculus looks difficult for Bachmann. We just need to hope it stays that way.