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Bob Casey Jr.
Public Policy Polling (PDF) (6/30-7/2, 7/5, Pennsylvania voters, 4/7-10 in parens):
Bob Casey, Jr. (D-inc): 49 (50)
Jim Gerlach (R): 33 (32)
Undecided: 17 (19)

Bob Casey, Jr. (D-inc): 48 (49)
Rick Santorum (R): 39 (37)
Undecided: 13 (13)

Bob Casey, Jr. (D-inc): 47 (51)
Marc Scaringi (R): 29 (28)
Undecided: 24 (21)

Bob Casey, Jr. (D-inc): 51 (51)
Jake Corman (R): 35 (35)
Undecided: 14 (14)

Bob Casey, Jr. (D-inc): 51 (51)
Laureen Cummings (R): 31 (32)
Undecided: 18 (17)

Bob Casey, Jr. (D-inc): 47
Tim Murphy (R): 35
Undecided: 18
(MoE: ±4.2%)

There's not much change to see since April in the latest PPP poll of the Pennsylvania Senate race (or since January, for that matter). Casey continues to post leads in the 20-point ballpark against his woeful Republican opposition so far (former Rick Santorum aide Marc Scaringi and tea party leader Laureen Cummings), and smaller but still dominant leads against various better-known Republicans who don't seem to have any inclination of running but haven't explicitly ruled it out yet (or, in the case of state Sen. Jake Corman, who actually did decline to run last week, while the poll was in the field).

While this holding steady is good news (especially in light of some erosion Barack Obama saw in the presidential half of the poll), it's a little early to declare preemptive victory, as GOP Democratic chairman Jim Burn just did; somehow I think the GOP will manage to get someone a little more imposing than Scaringi and Cummings to jump in here, probably some heretofore unknown rich guy with Ron Johnson-style cash and dreams, but without the common sense to not attempt it in a non-wave year. Still, this poll shows the depth of the hole said unknown rich guy would start in.

If there's any encouraging news for the Republicans here, it's Casey's rather middling 40/32 approval rating (of course, every Republican save one, Rep. Tim Murphy—at 19/14—is upside down on their favorables). But that comes partly, à la Florida's Bill Nelson, from less-than-overwhelming approvals among Democrats (56/18), although that seems more to do with Pennsylvania's unusually large number of conservative Democrats than widespread discontent in the liberal base ... he's at 52/25 among the "very liberal" and 58/13 among "somewhat liberal." Nevertheless, Casey makes up for that with above average crossover support from Republicans (23 percent favorable among them).

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Thu Jul 14, 2011 at 02:43 PM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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