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2Q Fundraising:

• Today is the deadline for federal campaigns to submit their quarterly reports to the FEC. We'll be bringing you a chart of key House fundraising numbers in the near future.

Senate:

ME-Sen: Jesus. Blogger collinswatch at Dirigo Blue has a post which will just make you want to bang your head against the wall. Collinswatch wanted to know why Planned Parenthood was acting as a conduit for campaign donations to Republican Sen. Olympia Snowe and got someone from PP on the phone. The "explanations" are beyond maddening, particularly when the GOP is hell-bent on destroying Planned Parenthood.

ND-Sen: Former state Rep. and Byron Dorgan staffer Pam Gulleson, a top potential Dem recruit for the open Senate seat, had previously said she was considering the race… and is still saying the same thing, though now she will decide "only after significant progress has been made on recovery efforts" from serious flooding in her home state.

NE-Sen: I don't usually link to this sort of thing, but Rachel Weiner at the WaPo has a pretty interesting profile of Republican AG Jon Bruning, touching on things like his past as a liberal and his connections to Warren Buffet's now-disgraced heir apparent.

NJ-Sen: Max Pizarro at PolitickerNJ has an interesting look at two very different Republican state Senators who are both considering runs for United States Senate: Joe Kyrillos, very much an establishment type, and Mike Doherty, an insurgent outsider who backed Ron Paul in 2008.

NV-Sen: Americans United for Change ad has a new ad out attacking Sen. Dean Heller for voting for the Ryan plan — twice. (Recall he voted for it in the House and then again when he was elevated to the Senate to replace John Ensign.) Politico says the buy is only for $6,000, though, so consider it what Nathan Gonzales calls a "video press release."

UT-Sen: Man, keeping track of the names of these dark money groups is becoming impossible. A new mystery 501(c)(4) called "FreedomPath" praises Republican Sens. Orrin Hatch and Mike Lee for "leading the fight to stop runaway spending." The buy is apparently for a pretty hefty $100K.

House:

IL-08: I'm really wondering what to make of this poll by Normington, Petts & Associates for Tammy Duckworth. It shows Duckworth leading Raja Krishnamoorthi by a 69-8 margin in a hypothetical Democratic primary. Now, I recall when Dan Seals touted similarly wide-margined polls before his second and third congressional runs, and at least the first time (when he slaughtered Jay Footlik with 81% of the vote), the numbers turned out to be legit.

But Seals was running back-to-back races in the same district. Duckworth last ran for office in 2006, has spent several years in DC, and what's more, only 56% of the new 8th was in the old 6th (the seat she sought way back when). So are we really to believe she has 76% name rec after all this time — and Krishnamoorthi, who ran for Treasurer just last year, is at only 15%?

MN-08: Former Rep. Rick Nolan, who left the House all the way back in 1981, officially jumped into the race for the Democratic nod to take on GOP frosh Chip Cravaack. He joins ex-state Rep. Tarryl Clark and Duluth City Councilor Jeff Anderson.

NC-13: Yet another Republican says he's interested in running in the new 13th CD: this time it's Paul Coble, chair of the Wake County commissioners. Coble does not appear to be related to 6th District GOP Rep. Howard Coble, but he is a nephew of Jesse Helms.

OK-02: GOP state Rep. George Faught made it official: He'll make a bid for retiring Dem Rep. Dan Boren's open seat.

Texas: The crew at Roll Call has a good run-down on Republicans looking to run in Texas' redrawn and open seats, some of whom we've mentioned before and some of whom are new to us:

TX-14: state Rep. Larry Taylor; state Rep. Dennis Bonnen; ex-Rep. Steve Stockman (more on him here; and one more via Twitter, attorney Michael Truncale

TX-25: state Rep. Sid Miller; state Rep. Jason Isaac; 2010 candidate Donna Campbell; conservative activist Bill Burch

TX-33: former Railroad Commissioner Michael Williams; former Secretary of State Roger Williams

TX-36: state Sen. Mike Jackson (also a possible TX-14 candidate); former Pasadena Mayor John Manlove (always glad to see an awesome name like that back in the mix); meanwhile, state Rep. James White is out

On the Dem side, we noted yesterday that ex-Rep. Nick Lampson says he's interested in running in the 14th. And in the new (and blue) 34th, Roll Call says that Dems are talking up state Sen. Eddie Lucio, Jr. or state Rep. Eddie Lucio III (father and son), but apparently neither is interested.

Grab Bag:

Dave's Redistricting App: Dave has more data and more features. Go check it out!

MoveOn: Liberal org MoveOn is airing radio ads in three Republican-held districts (WI-07, PA-11 & TX-27), accusing the incumbents in each case of "threatening to cause an economic catastrophe" — without actually mentioning the words "debt ceiling" (which poll pretty poorly).

Redistricting Roundup:

Arizona: The ref-working by the GOP in Arizona is getting ridiculous. Now one legislator wants to introduce a bill to repeal the state's independent redistricting commission, simply because the lone independent on the panel had the temerity to twice side with Democrats on hiring choices. Obviously an independent commission is only okay if it does what Republicans want.

Oregon: It all happened so fast, we missed it at the time. But almost immediately after the state legislature passed its congressional redistricting compromise plan, Dem Gov. John Kitzhaber signed it into law. So check Oregon off the list.

West Virginia: The Mountain State is currently engaged in a debate on the future of multi-member state legislative districts, with some folks advocating for their elimination entirely. The head of the House's redistricting committee, though, said that while their number will likely be reduced, some will be kept.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Fri Jul 15, 2011 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  NC Redistricting - "Partisan Hardball" (5+ / 0-)
    House Minority Leader Joe Hackney spoke out today about the GOP redistricting plans for statehouse and congressional districts, calling them "partisan hardball" and voicing skepticism about their odds of gaining approval from federal officials or the D.C. Circuit Court.

    Hackney is one of twelve Democrats that have been
    drawn into districts with a fellow Democratic incumbent.

    Asked whether the House plan targets Democratic caucus leaders, Hackney didn't disagree.

    "Obviously, within Cumberland County, the two members [Ds Rick Glazier and Diane Parfitt] could have easily been separated – could perhaps still be," Hackney noted.  "The same thing in Asheville – easy to separate those two," he said of double-bunked Dems Susan Fisher and Patsy Keever.  

    And the doubling up of former Judiciary 1 chair Deborah Ross and former Homeland Security chair Grier Martin in Wake County? "It’s just pure politics. Pure partisan hardball, partisan politics. That’s what that is,” Hackney said.


    http://www.wral.com/...

    Only the DOJ or the Courts can change this. The GOP is angling for a permanent majority in NC.

    "America will never be destroyed from the outside. If we falter and lose our freedoms, it will be because we destroyed ourselves." — Abraham Lincoln

    by bear83 on Fri Jul 15, 2011 at 06:28:09 AM PDT

  •  mn-8 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    I don't get why the only DFLers looking at this race are carpetbaggers. Nolan from the SW portion if the state (where the 6th district was located in the 70s), and Clark from St. Cloud. Neither one live in the district. It is frustrating considering the bench in that region.

    •  NOT TRUE! Take it back!!! (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      CoyoteMarti

      Rick Nolan lives in Crosby, was born in Brainerd - hardly SW Minnesota!  He has lived in the area for most of his life - as in: the parts of his life when he wasn't representing MN in Washington, living in the Twin Cities to head the MN World Trade Center, or working overseas in 1981-1986.  During that time, redistricting (several iterations) has changed the geography of the MN districts, especially the non-metro area districts.  Nolan is a solid progressive with actual congressional experience (three terms in the 70's) and is a highly viable candidate for MN-08.  Please get the facts before calling Nolan a carpetbagger!

      I really need a new signature that is lofty enough for DK4 - but I just haven't eaten enough arugula and sipped enough lattes to come up with one today. Sorry folks!

      by RethinkEverything on Fri Jul 15, 2011 at 07:08:16 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I have my facts straight (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        NMLib, Zack from the SFV, MichaelNY, jncca

        He certainly did not represent Crosby, or Brainerd in congress. So he either carpet bagged in the 70s or he is doing it now. I was born in Hibbing, but haven't lived there since I was a child would not make me a resident there, and if I ran for office there, I would consider myself a.carpetbagger. I am not knocking Nolan, nor am I saying that he is not a viable candidate. I was more commenting on the fact that all of the top tier Rangers took a pass on the race. And if a guy who represented farmers 30 years ago is the best option for the mining and logging heavy 8th, then I wish him well. I am just disappointed in the half dozen top-tier politicians that passed on the race.

        •  So you should probably Google Rick Nolan (0+ / 0-)

          Before you malign him.  From the Biographical Guide of the United States Congress

          NOLAN, Richard Michael, a Representative from Minnesota; born in Brainerd, Crow Wing County, Minn., December 17, 1943; graduated from Brainerd High School, 1962; attended St. John’s University, Collegeville, Minn., 1962; B.A., University of Minnesota, 1966; postgraduate work in public administration and policy formation, University of Maryland, College Park, 1966; postgraduate work in education, St. Cloud State College, St. Cloud, Minn.; pursued a career in business and education; teacher of social studies in Royalton, Minn., schools, 1968-1972; member of the Minnesota state house of representatives, 1969-1973; elected as a Democrat to the Ninety-fourth and to the two succeeding Congresses (January 3, 1975-January 3, 1981); was not a candidate for reelection to the Ninety-seventh Congress in 1980; president, U.S. Export Corporation, 1981-1986; president, Minnesota World Trade Center, St. Paul, Minn., 1987-1994; business executive and owner; is a resident of Crosby, Minn.

          Accusing somone of carpetbagging is pretty serious in my book - he attended college in St. Cloud and then served in the MN House before being elected to US House.  Since 1994 he has lived closer to his ancestral roots, which happen to be in MN-08.  In both instances, (the 70's and now), he is running where he had established roots, not carpetbagging.

          I really need a new signature that is lofty enough for DK4 - but I just haven't eaten enough arugula and sipped enough lattes to come up with one today. Sorry folks!

          by RethinkEverything on Fri Jul 15, 2011 at 07:30:37 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  you don't frequent the Dk elections subsite often (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, ArkDem14

            So I will ignore the fact that you are patronizing me about my knowledge of outstate Minnesota politics, as you really don't know who I am.

            But aside from that, there are a few other issues with your statement. First of all, St. john's is not in St. Cloud, but rather about 20 miles down I-94. Although he took a few classes at SCSU, I don't consider that "going to college in St. Cloud". And regardless of this fact, neither St. Cloud, nor Collegeville are in the 8th. The former may end up in the 8th (i seriously doubt that it will, honestly), the latter almost certainly won't. Carpetbagging is not a deadly sin, and a lot of politicians do it. Senator Clinton is a good example. But you can't have it both ways and say that Nolan never carpetbagged. You can't fun for congress in opposite corners of the state and claim you are a native son of both. It does not work that way.

            •  Umm how on ANY map are St. Cloud and Brainerd (0+ / 0-)

              opposite corners of the state?  If someone lives in an area and runs for office there, that is NOT carpetbagging.  Swooping in and buying a house so you can run in a state/congressional district IS carpetbagging.

              I really need a new signature that is lofty enough for DK4 - but I just haven't eaten enough arugula and sipped enough lattes to come up with one today. Sorry folks!

              by RethinkEverything on Fri Jul 15, 2011 at 07:48:33 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  the districts are on opposite corners of the state (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                Mn-6 circa 1975 was counties such as Jackson, Swift, redwood, rock and cottonwood. Those are in the opposite corner of the state of mn-8 circa 2010, which is centered in Se. Louis, Cook, and itasca counties. And the fact that I was mentioning is that St. Cloud is not necessarily going to be in the new 8th. But he no longer lives in St. Cloud, so I am not sure why you are harping on that point.

                •  My point is that when he served in the 6th (0+ / 0-)

                  he lived there.  He was born and raised in the 8th and has lived there for the past 15 years, hardly a carpetbagger.  Brainerd is solidly in located in MN-08 if you look at a congressional district map.  So don't refer to someone as a carpetbagger if they're not.  And also, check Rick Nolan for Congress out, you may actually like what you see and stop moaning about him not being a true represenative of the district.

                  I really need a new signature that is lofty enough for DK4 - but I just haven't eaten enough arugula and sipped enough lattes to come up with one today. Sorry folks!

                  by RethinkEverything on Fri Jul 15, 2011 at 08:05:57 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  15 years is not all that long (3+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    Zack from the SFV, MichaelNY, jncca

                    But for the record, I am not opposed to his candidacy. If someone big from the Iron Range had entered, I would support him/her. Bit they all took a pass. I tried to talk my old boss into it, bit he wasn't interested. (i was a deputy chief of staff for a current state rep, and acting office director for his st Paul office. This is in addition to the close family ties I have with thee Sertich family, or the other campaigns I have worked on. I even turned down a full time staffer position offered to me by an elementary school classmate of mine when they got elected to the house. trust me when I tell you that your condescending tone towards my knowledge of this area is comical to me).

                    And I know all about Mr. Nolan. But he is no Iron Ranger, which is what I feel would be ideal in this district. I am officially neutral in this race, and will wholeheartedly support whomever gets the nomination. But as I no longer live in the 8th, I will obviously not be caucusing or voting for any of them.

      •  Nolan (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Nolan committed career suicide by being a big backer of Ted Kennedy over the Carter-Mondale ticket in 1980--not a popular move in Fritz Mondale's DFL.

    •  That would be more of the fault (0+ / 0-)

      of the bench in the district then.

      19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin for Senate!

      by ndrwmls10 on Fri Jul 15, 2011 at 11:34:12 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Carpetbagger (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, DCCyclone, sacman701, jncca

      A carpetbagger is someone who relocates for the purpose of seeking office. For example, Hillary Clinton in New York in 1999/2000.

      Nolan isn't a carpetbagger because he relocated for other reasons and only later decided to run for Congress. The fact that he was previously elected to office elsewhere isn't pertinent.

  •  stay on message (6+ / 0-)

    Republicans promised that lowering taxes for the rich would increase revenue--it didn't.  Now they say lowered rates will increase employment--it didn't and it won't.  

    Apres Bush, le deluge.

    by melvynny on Fri Jul 15, 2011 at 06:45:59 AM PDT

  •  olympia snowe does support legalized abortion (5+ / 0-)

    Normally I'd agree that since she is a repub it's pointless for PP to donate to her, and they shouldn't donate much but maybe a little is good to keep her as one of the semi sane repubs. I recently saw a few repubs vote in favor of gay marriage in the NYS senate which I predicted would never happen but I'm glad I was wrong about. Turns out it was because of wealthy people in favor of gay marriage donating to them. There's an example of donating to a repub not being a total waste of time.

    •  the same question Republicans ask of the NRA (5+ / 0-)

      If you are a single-issue organization, you need to have as many allies as possible. And if PP were to actively oppose Snowe and Collins, hose 2 would have no incentive to NOT go after PP. Politics can make strange bedfellows. But if ii have someone that votes he way your organization wants then to, you need to support them, or they may no longer vote the way you want them to on that legislation.

    •  Not just the donors (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      The article in the NYT that discussed the donor support for gay marriage also mentioned how one Republican was pretty indifferent to the donor overtures but flipped after a big organization of gay marriage supporters in his district.  Money and donations matter, but so does organization of constituents.  I know this doesn't contradict your broader point but I feel obligated to push back against the "wall street bought gay marriage" simplification (although obviously their support helped).

      25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

      by Xenocrypt on Fri Jul 15, 2011 at 07:48:13 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  true (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        those repubs in NYS that voted yes to gay marriage being legal might have taken a risk, even if they got donations to do it what if they got kicked out off office by insane repub voters in the next election? Well that's not a risk if you have a bunch of folks who don't mind gay marriage but vote for repubs because of other issues. Might that be the case with snowe? She supports pro choice but that has never been a risk for her, she keeps getting reelected in maine anyway. So PP throws her a bone, a small donation, can't hurt. What if she did suddenly turn anti choice? Well that'd be a bad thing for PP.

  •  Oregon (0+ / 0-)

    Can we cross it off the congressional list, or off the legislative list as well? I do not recall seeing house/senate maps from Oregon.

  •  DKE Group Discussion Rant (26+ / 0-)

    I realize that trash talk between the parties is normal. But it's getting to the point where I'm feeling turned off.

    Furthermore, I realize, I could very well be talking into the wind. I'm certain that I'd have near zero influence on the main DK site with this rant, so I do --not-- plan to put this in a diary. But here goes.

    When people who should be familiar with the customs of SSP talk about R handlers who want to "slit our throats" without substantiation (as in yesterday's digest) I feel ill.

    Yes, I don't like the people in the Tea Party, and abhor just about everything that they stand for. But why do so many here have to call them "teabaggers"? Yes, it was quite some time before I recognized the crudeness of the reference. It was quite some time before so many in the Tea Party understood the crudeness of the reference. Nevertheless, I pride myself on being politically correct in my own talk, and am trying to self-censor my use of the term.

    Yes, I know people here feel disgust towards the Republican Party. I have no doubt that some in the Republican Party are in fact thugs. But believe it or not, many Republicans are good people too. (I just personally believe that they are misguided.) All this talk about "rethugs" is IMO just one step below believing that they want to "slit our throats. II no longer call them "rethugs" and hope that others from SSP can pledge to do the same.

    "I hope; therefore, I can live."
    For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

    by tietack on Fri Jul 15, 2011 at 06:49:21 AM PDT

    •  thank you (6+ / 0-)

      If I like recommend this twice, I would.

    •  I agree with you (16+ / 0-)

      About phrases like "rethugs" (and "repugs," which is just dumb). But teabaggers - they call themselves that.

      I'm proud to be a teabagger

      And if you want, you can Google that phrase and check out the comments at (ugh) Breitbart's site. They all echo the sentiment in the video.

      Political Director, Daily Kos

      by David Nir on Fri Jul 15, 2011 at 08:38:50 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  David, I appreciate the good work you've done (5+ / 0-)

        with the transition from SSP to DKE. I know you've been working hard every day to maintain the standards of decency that we've had at SSP. For the most part, I think you've been successful, and am hopeful that you'll continue to make things better.

        As for the term "teabagger,," standards evolve.

        The youtube video you linked to is from a year ago. And I suggest that any person in the Tea Party today who still refers to themselves as "teabaggers" does not understand the crude sexual nature of the reference.

        As an analogy (always dangerous, I know) it wasn't all that long ago that people called those who look like me "Oriental".

        Now there are some in the Asian community who believe that it is functionally equivalent to being called a "ni&&er".

        Perhaps I'm just getting older, but I'm inclined to give people who call me "Oriental" a pass, especially if they're older. If I see "teabagger" here on DKE, I'm inclined to give them a pass for similar reasons.

        As I suggested in my rant, the understanding of the word "teabagger" as a crude sexual reference is just coming into the fore. Fortunately, the DKE glossary reflects an understanding of this.

        In this Internet age, I suggest that we keep up. In the name of "political correctness," I think we should that we work to stop using the term "teabagger".

        "I hope; therefore, I can live."
        For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

        by tietack on Fri Jul 15, 2011 at 08:57:21 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Re this (5+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          itskevin, tietack, MichaelNY, ArkDem14, jncca

          As I suggested in my rant, the understanding of the word "teabagger" as a crude sexual reference is just coming into the fore.

          I think a lot of liberals instantly cottoned to the sexual meaning of teabagging. I certainly did. I think what was amusing was that a lot of right-wingers didn't seem familiar with the term and only somewhat belatedly figured it out.

          Ironically, it's a term I find myself using less and less these days, I guess in large part because there's simply less media attention directed toward the "Tea Party" these days. Before the word teabaggers came into the fore, they were just movement conservatives (which is the term I used most frequently)... and the term that probably has the most staying power.

          Political Director, Daily Kos

          by David Nir on Fri Jul 15, 2011 at 10:19:26 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  "sucks" vs. "teabagger" (6+ / 0-)

          The word "sucks" used to have a much more explicit sexual connotation than it does now, so much so that to older generations it is genuinely evocative of oral sex. But through constant use it has taken the meaning of "is very bad" and has basically lost any sexual connotation at all.

          "Teabagger" is evolving in the same direction. Because of its constant use to mean "affiliate of the Tea Party" it is losing its sexual connotation. In fact, because its sexual use is relatively uncommon, many people only know it as a political term. I personally use "Tea Partier" as the noun form, and only use "teabag" as verb, meaning "to launch a right-wing primary challenge", but even then, I'm not attempting to evoke any sexual connotations.

    •  Tea Bagger label (3+ / 0-)

      allusions to violence are not part of the language I use, but I have absolutely zero problem calling TeaBaggers TeaBaggers, because they were the ones who named themselves and first called the Americans for Prosperity tax protest in Boston Harbor TeaBaggers.

      In fact, I recall Rachel Maddow's incredulous delight when she first reported on the term they chose to apply to their movement when she first reported their protest on MSNBC.

      The Koch Brothers were appalled at the term TeaBaggers, but they were helpless to stop its use because they were still spinning their the lie of their complete independence from the Tax Protest TeaBaggers, while financially backing their efforts.

      So TeaBaggers is a term they chose for themselves, and I for one will continue to use it going forward.

      I don't use terms like ReThug or littler my posts with silly phrases like "slit your throat".

      But if anyone wants to come to Madison and give Gov. Walker an old fashioned spanking, I am all for that :)

      "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

      by walja on Fri Jul 15, 2011 at 09:41:42 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I didn't think (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      walja, tietack

      the poster in question had been a regular at SSP, but I stand to be corrected.

      I agree with you on everything except that I won't criticize anyone for using "teabagger, "though I use "Tea Party member" myself, in an (over)abundance of decorum.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Fri Jul 15, 2011 at 12:46:05 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  i don't use teabagger (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      tietack, MichaelNY

      but am not offended by those who do.

      i am offended by people who say rethugs, dummycrats, etc.

      unless the person is hank johnson (who is a dummy) or john kasich (who is a thug)

      18, D, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college next year). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. Put your age and CD here :) -.5.38, -3.23

      by jncca on Fri Jul 15, 2011 at 08:23:56 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I never heard of Hank Johnson (0+ / 0-)

        and had to Google him. So what's dumb about him?

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Sat Jul 16, 2011 at 02:11:33 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  he asked (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          during a hearing whether more troops stationed on guam would make it tip over.

          18, D, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college next year). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. Put your age and CD here :) -.5.38, -3.23

          by jncca on Sat Jul 16, 2011 at 01:26:19 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  He's had issues with Hepatits C for decade. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            James Allen

            It apparently has caused issues with his cognitive functions once and a while. Although granted that doesn't seem to be the reason. He claims it was a metaphor. Which it very well could have been. The point of the matter is some right wing idiot picked it up and tried to find another "idiot" black person.

            19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin for Senate!

            by ndrwmls10 on Sat Jul 16, 2011 at 01:41:08 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  If Hep C is impairing his thinking (0+ / 0-)

              I'm very compassionate toward that but it calls into question whether he should be in Congress. What could that question have been a metaphor for? Tip over to what? Can you give any possible benign explanation for it? And I don't see why his color is relevant to whether he's ignorant or not.

              Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

              by MichaelNY on Sat Jul 16, 2011 at 02:41:45 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Color has a lot to do with it. (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                DCCyclone

                That's all I have to say about it. It's something apparently only few people understand.

                19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin for Senate!

                by ndrwmls10 on Sat Jul 16, 2011 at 02:45:27 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  You mean (0+ / 0-)

                  you're not going to back up the claim that his remark about Guam was some kind of metaphor? Because that seems completely incredible (in the original sense of the word), on the face of it.

                  As for your insinuation about color: Do you think all Black Caucus members should be immune from criticism for their shortcomings? I doubt there are very large numbers of Americans of any color who would agree with that.

                  Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                  by MichaelNY on Sat Jul 16, 2011 at 03:16:28 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Immune from criticism, no. (0+ / 0-)

                    Immune from racism, yes. All members of the CBC have faced question's about their intelligence from the right wing. This isn't about corruption. Yes, there are corrupt CBC members (Also plenty of corruption in the rest of the house). That's perfectly fine to criticize. It is in fact racist to question the intelligence of a black person.

                    19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin for Senate!

                    by ndrwmls10 on Sat Jul 16, 2011 at 03:36:01 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

          •  OK, that's funny (0+ / 0-)

            But extremely ignorant and unacceptable from a member of Congress.

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Sat Jul 16, 2011 at 02:39:23 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  I thought he was just kidding (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            DCCyclone, MichaelNY, James Allen

            That's the kind of joke I would make, anyway.

            Independent, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

            by SaoMagnifico on Sat Jul 16, 2011 at 06:25:05 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  Re: IL-08 I would not be too surprised (4+ / 0-)

    if this were close to the current situation based on name/face recognition alone. Tammy is exceedingly well-known here in Chicagoland, receives good press. The 2010 Treasurer's race, on the other hand was almost totally overwhelmed by coverage of the Republican primary wars, the Dem Lt Governor primary winner fiasco and the Governor and Senatorial races in the general. I am a political junkie and activist and while I was aware of Raja and liked his campaign, every regular Dem voter I knew just voted for the D on the rest of the ballot.

    There can be no deficit reduction without jobs, no jobs without growth, no growth without investment.

    by CoyoteMarti on Fri Jul 15, 2011 at 06:53:17 AM PDT

    •  Is she in-district this time? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      CoyoteMarti, MichaelNY

      I asked this in another thread and no one seemed to know.  Does the new district encompass her house?  

      I think running for a district she didn't live in hurt her last time.

      If we don't stop them here, then where? If not now, then when?

      by nightsweat on Fri Jul 15, 2011 at 06:59:41 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Good Q. I don't know for sure (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        nightsweat, MichaelNY

        because I'm just getting familiar with the new lines. Will try to find out later today when I get the time.

        There can be no deficit reduction without jobs, no jobs without growth, no growth without investment.

        by CoyoteMarti on Fri Jul 15, 2011 at 07:09:00 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I don't feel like it did all that much (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, itskevin, geoneb, MichaelNY

        Because the circumstances, IIRC, were quite special: After losing her legs, her friends helped build an accessible home for her that was just outside the district — obviously not a home she could or would just move right out of.

        Man, I never thought I'd be spending this much ink coming to Tammy Duckworth's defense! I'm definitely leaning toward Raja. Life is funny sometimes, though.

        Political Director, Daily Kos

        by David Nir on Fri Jul 15, 2011 at 10:23:26 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  well, not just name recognition (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, MichaelNY

      Let's be candid. My guess would be that ethnic prejudice influenced some respondents' answer. Though Major Duckworth's ancestry is half Thai, her family name looks Anglo. People with readily identifiable South Asian names are not yet common in elected federal office.

      A Republican is a person who says we need to rebuild Iraq but not New Orleans. - Temple Stark

      by Christopher Walker on Fri Jul 15, 2011 at 07:14:10 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  yea (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Jindal is not easily identifiable as south Asian. Neither is goyle. My firmer state senator had the name Satveer Chaudhary, but that is at the legislative level that essentially covered his home school district and a neighboring one. For that, politics is local.

      •  Hmm. Hard for me to know on that one. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, jncca

        Here in DuPage Co we have quite a few South Asian/Indian named people active and it doesn't seem to be an issue so it's not something I've looked at for IL-08. And that wouldn't affect the name recognition question I would assume? I can tell you that the only concerns I heard about Raja during the election among both Dems and Repubs was his youth. I mean, we had some dude named Barack Husein Obama as our Senator, so we're used to unusual names.

        There can be no deficit reduction without jobs, no jobs without growth, no growth without investment.

        by CoyoteMarti on Fri Jul 15, 2011 at 07:25:49 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  yeah (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, DCCyclone, CoyoteMarti

      Not from Chicago, but if Duckworth's 2006 race got a lot of play on Chicago tv it makes sense that she'd be well known in the whole metro area, not just in the district she ran in.

      SSP poster. 42, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Fri Jul 15, 2011 at 08:09:57 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  FYI, not just the race by any means. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, ArkDem14

        Her activities in DC the last two years as part of the VA got play here, and the media would often catch up with her to talk vet issues whenever she was in Chicago. And even before her race she was know because of her helicopter pilot/wounded vet human interest story. Helps that she can talk intelligently, another reason the press has been happy to talk with her on VA stuff.

        There can be no deficit reduction without jobs, no jobs without growth, no growth without investment.

        by CoyoteMarti on Fri Jul 15, 2011 at 01:24:38 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  NE-Sen (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TofG, jncca

    I'm very curious to see how Nelson is faring. I still think it's too early to write him off, but what do I know?

    As far as Bruning goes, I'm always interested in reading about switches. I didn't know that Johanns used to be a Democrat, for instance, and would like to know about what prompted his transformation. The same goes for Bruning, because we really didn't get many answers in that profile. The main thing that caused him to become a Republican was taxes? Um, okay. As if he didn't know that they existed when he was bashing Reagan? I've certainly changed my mind about a few things, and hell, I'm still pretty young and am still changing them. I'd just hope that if I am in a position like Bruning, I give a complete answer.

  •  NY-Sen (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Day before yesterday some signs popped up in lower Orange County for a George Maragos, a Republican running for the Senate in 2012.

    Rotsa ruck there, dude.

    Hige sceal þe heardra, heorte þe cenre, mod sceal þe mare, þe ure mægen lytlað

    by milkbone on Fri Jul 15, 2011 at 07:38:14 AM PDT

  •  The AZ GOP is going to extremes (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, TofG, MichaelNY, KingofSpades

    Just earlier this week they wanted to have Gov Brewer kick Colleen Mathis off the IRC.

    Fair to the GOP is doing only what the GOP wants.

    I don't think they can repeal a voter initiative (which the IRC is) without submitting another voter initiative though?

    "When everyone's a crook, who can you trust?" - Queensryche

    by AZ Independent on Fri Jul 15, 2011 at 07:58:58 AM PDT

  •  47 McCrory 39 Perdue PPP (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY
  •  This morning I was watching CNBC (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TofG, MichaelNY, DCCyclone

    before trading and Scott Walker said, "collective bargaining is not a right its an entittlement" you think ads showing him making statements like this would help us in the recalls.

  •  Oops! Perry campaign slip. (7+ / 0-)

    The Perry campaign flashes a bit of ankle, righties get the vapors.

    http://www.dallasnews.com/...

  •  WI- Senate (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Magellan polled both parties primary options to replace Senator Herb Kohl in the Senate.

    As expected Tommy Thompson and Tammy Baldwin come out on top in their respective primaries.

    The one take I personally got from the results is the tired old argument that Tammy can't win because she is a Lesbian and too liberal is false.  She blows away both Ron Kind, and Steve Kagan, among self identified Democratic voters.

    The tabs for other Wisconsin polls are upper right corner, this article does not put all the results in a single tab for each of their questions for some reason.

    http://www.magellanstrategies.com/...

    "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

    by walja on Fri Jul 15, 2011 at 09:51:24 AM PDT

    •  Just because she's winning Democrats (6+ / 0-)

      doesn't mean she can win the general. Personally, I think she can, but what you're saying doesn't really support that case.

      •  We elected Russ Feingold 3x (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Christopher Walker

        and he was perhaps the most liberal Senator in the Senate prior to his defeat in 2010.

        So I fail to understand why it is not moderate and Conservative Democrats who need to prove they can win a statewide race in Wisconsin.  (Herb Kohl is certainly moderate, but he is also a living Bank and many rules that apply to mere mortals are useless when applied to our outgoing Senator.  He was a living rule exception to most electoral rules due to his massive pile of cash.

        Russ Feingold and Tammy Baldwin disagree on very few issues, so please explain why he can win three times but we need to be terrified at the prospect of a Tammy Baldwin candidacy.

        I am not aiming this next comment at you personally Kevin, I have read enough of your comments to doubt you merit this criticism, but it is Baldwin's critics who need to prove their fears are not linked to her sexual orientation.  It can't or at least should not be ideology, because Russ Feingold has  already disproven the tired old thesis of defeatist Democrats that only moderates win statewide in Wisconsin.

        Hogwash!

        "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

        by walja on Fri Jul 15, 2011 at 10:33:24 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  That's disingenuous (5+ / 0-)

          The electoral results between Feingold and Kohl speak volumes about how Wisconsin voters perceived them (Feingold always had closer-than-expected races, Kohl didn't).

          I definitely support Baldwin over Kind, but being too liberal may well be an issue for Baldwin in a general, and yes, it's definitely a valid electoral concern that Baldwin is gay. Personally, I'd love to see a new liberal voice in the Senate as well as another woman, and one who is openly gay to boot, but that doesn't change the fact that there are legitimate electoral concerns about her.

          Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 24 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

          by NMLib on Fri Jul 15, 2011 at 10:47:58 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Polling so far disagrees (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            TofG, walja

            The only GE poll so far shows her polling even in the general with other non-Feingold Dems. She tied Thompson, their strongest candidate, and beat everyone else.

            I don't mind arguments that Tammy would be a weak GE candidate, so long as they're backed with evidence, not supposition. So far the evidence suggests that she's at least as strong as anyone else.

            •  Did I say she would be weak? (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              Polling is definitely encouraging, but early polling is largely name recognition, you know that. I doubt that many people in Wisconsin even know she's gay right now.

              As I said, I'm backing Baldwin over Kind (or any other challenger), and I do think she can win, but early polling simply isn't sufficient.

              Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 24 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

              by NMLib on Fri Jul 15, 2011 at 01:31:56 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  I wish they would poll factual questions more (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY, NMLib

                Of course, merely asking the question "what is Tammy Baldwin's sexual orientation?" is a big hint in and of itself.  But all these biographical details that we assume people know--I wish there would be more polling, so we could be more sure.  Like, what percentage of, say, California voters know that Dianne Feinstein was mayor of San Francisco?

                25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

                by Xenocrypt on Fri Jul 15, 2011 at 01:35:31 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

              •  Name recognition (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                James Allen

                A Congresswoman who represents 1/8th of the state is polling even or better than two statewide elected officials (Thompson and Van Hollen) and performs about the same against them as another Congressman (Kind) and better than a third (Kagen). Tells you about as much as you need to know, at least on the electability question.

                •  Kagen's a firebrand and he's a former congressman (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  James Allen, MichaelNY

                  As to Thompson, that suggests he's a far weaker candidate than Republicans think.

                  As I mentioned above, it's not obvious that many people even know that Baldwin is gay, which means polling is still limited as to what it can tell us.

                  Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 25 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

                  by NMLib on Fri Jul 15, 2011 at 02:05:56 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                •  Name recognition is not the same as size (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  drobertson, MichaelNY

                  Of constituency.  Baldwin might represent only 1/8th of the state, but she represents what is surely one of the state's largest media markets.  I'm not saying this isn't a good poll for her, but I am saying that a current member of Congress can surely have better name recognition than a current Attorney General.   Still, it'd be nice to know for sure.

                  25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

                  by Xenocrypt on Fri Jul 15, 2011 at 03:15:01 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  For example (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    drobertson, MichaelNY

                    Van Hollen became A.G. in 2007.  I wouldn't be surprised if more voters in Maryland knew who Elijah Cummings or Donna Edwards were than know who Doug Gansler is.  Or if more Minnesota voters knew who Betty McCollum or Keith Ellison were than know who Lori Swanson is.  

                    http://en.wikipedia.org/...

                    25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

                    by Xenocrypt on Fri Jul 15, 2011 at 03:19:05 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  I don't recall the exact numbers (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY

                    But her name rec was a bit higher than Kind's. In any event, the name rec issue cuts both ways. If she's getting such high numbers in GE matchups despite low name rec, that means there are a lot of people willing to vote for a Democrat no matter what.

          •  wrong (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            Kohl won because after initially winning the seat the GOP never mounted a serious candidate to challenge Senator Kohl. (very similar to Paul Ryan's House career in fact). The reason Republicans passed election after election to challenge him was money.  I have lived and voted in Wisconsin the entirety of Senator's Kohl's career and I can assure you it was his money that scared off the GOP.

            Look at his challengers in Kohl's 3 re-election campaigns.
            *1994  St. Sen. Bob Welch   who got 40.69% of the vote.  He wanted out of Madison and decided it was DC or bust.  He went bust and has almost completely disappeared from active politics these days.
            *2000  John Gillespie  37.04%  (a dude who operated Rawhide a troubled youth facility that trains kids to work on donated junker cars.  Rawhide became very political when ex-Packers QB Bart Starr helped get Rawhide an exemption from the legislature so they could receive tax monies without having to give up their homophobic discrimination policies.
            *2006 Robert Lorge. 29.48%  He was a discredited fmr. State Senator the state GOP did not lift a finger to assist.  About the only votes outside of New London he won where from straight party line GOP voters.

            Only 4 other Senators that I can think of are in the same financial zip code as Herb Kohl, they are Diane Feinstein, John Kerry, Mark Warner, and Jay Rockefeller.  The one common denominator they share other than extreme wealth  is they have faced lesser opposition on average from the GOP  than their Democratic colleagues.  The reason? Extreme personal wealth.

            Here are the American Conservative Union scores for Kohl & Feingold for 2001, 2002, 2009 and lifetime.  Not nearly the gap your outrage implies.  I use these years because I located these years first, the years were not cherry picked by me.

            American Conservative Union Scores

                                   2001  2002   2009         lifetime  Years
            Feingold            5         20        24          13.12     18
            Kohl                  15        16         8           13.37     22  

            Wow, what a huge gap in conservative support, or not.

            Now that I think about it here are the American Conservative Union scores for the Wisconsin House delegation.  Eyeball in particular Tammy Baldwin, Ron Kind, and Steve Kagen's score.  This is a great comparison because all three were in the House voting same issues same time in 2009.  I included years below to illustrate the lifetime ratings are not based on identical sample sizes.

            American Conservative Union

                                                  2009     Lifetime rating  years
            P.RYAN                              96           92.67           12
            BALDWIN                           0              1.75            12
            KIND                                  4             13.93           14
            MOORE                              0               1.33           6
            SENSENBRENNER             100            89.28          32
            PETRI                                92             77.37          32
            OBEY                                 0                8.94           40
            KAGEN                               4                6.00           4

                                                     24 votes rated

            So Baldwin had no conservative votes in 2009 and Kind and Kagen had a single conservative vote each (I would love to tell you what issues they swerved on, but from the page I am on at the site, I can only tell you Kagen was conservative vote #13 and Kind on #22 of 24 total votes rated).

            "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

            by walja on Fri Jul 15, 2011 at 05:36:23 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  ADA perspective Baldwin - Kagen - Kind (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              Decided to look up the ADA scores to see if they provide more separation in the Wisconsin congressional delegation than the ACU generated.  

              I realized that Tammy Baldwin agreed more with both Ron Kind and Steve Kagen in 2009 than Kind & Kagen did with each other so I am checking the Progressive perspective by using the ADA scores for 2008.

              2008 American for Democratic Action ratings Wisconsin House delegation.

              Ryan                    15%
              Baldwin             100%
              Kind                     80%
              Moore                  95%  
              Sensenbrenner    10%
              Petri                     40%
              Obey                    95%
              Kagen                  90%

              Feingold                100%
              Kohl                         95%

              So once again, Feingold and Kohl score very close to one another despite reputations.

              Notes on House ratings
              *Paul Ryan 3 correct votes were undercutting Davis Bacon wage protections; and 2 vote extending unemployment benefits
              *Kagen disagreed with ADA on 2 votes; Kagen opposed the Black caucus Budget alternative; and Kagen voted to repeal DC gun laws
              *Kind disagreed with the ADA on the same two votes as Kagen above, plus 2 others.  The 2009 Budget resolution; and Kind voted to sustain the veto of the Farm Bill Authorization
              *Moore only disagreed with the ADA on the farm authorization (she voted with Kind on this issue)
              *Obey did not vote against the ADA but he missed the vote on the repeal of the DC gun law resulting in his 95% rating.    

              Similar to the American Conservative Union data, the Progressive side did not generate large differences between Baldwin - Kagen - Kind.  I am sure much of this is credited to the extreme polarization in DC the past few years.

              *Baldwin disagreed with Kind on 4 votes
              *Baldwin disagreed with Kagen on 2 votes
              *Kagen disagreed with Kind on 2 votes
              *Kagen & Baldwin voted together on the 2 issues Kagen and Kind split on.

              Total votes used by the ADA were 20 in 2008.

              http://www.adaction.org/...

              "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

              by walja on Fri Jul 15, 2011 at 07:42:39 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  I don't have it in front of me... (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              James Allen, MichaelNY, jncca

              But if you look at the DW-Nominate scores of Kohl compared to Feingold, you'd actually see a pretty big gap between the two for the 111th congress. If you take a look, Feingold has a score of roughly -0.81 (where -1 is very liberal and 0 is in the middle), Kohl, by comparison, had a DW-Nominate of -0.37, that's a huge gap, , frankly I don't care what these groups have to say, they often have ulterior motives (ie, every Democrat is a dirty hippie).

              As to the senators you brought up, Kerry, Feinstein, and Rockefeller share states in common that have no Republican bench; Mark Warner, on the other was as popular as Jesus, his money had noting to do with it. It's disingenuous, to say the least.

              Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 25 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

              by NMLib on Fri Jul 15, 2011 at 08:15:31 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Mark Warner (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                *lost his first statewide race losing to incumbent Senator John Warner 52.5 - 47. 4.  
                *In his 2nd statewide race he defeated Attorney General Mark Early 52 -47
                *2008 Mark Warner cruches former Gov. Jim Gilmore 65 -34.

                Talk about disingenuous "Mark Warner is "more popular than Jesus".  In statewide races Mark Warner lost once, won a close race, and dominated a third.   No insult  to Sen. Warner but that track record is not reflective of someone "more popular than Jesus"

                "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

                by walja on Fri Jul 15, 2011 at 09:39:03 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Yes, because John Warner was a weak incumbent... (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY, jncca

                  Coming within five points of John Warner was itself very impressive. I'm not even sure why you're disputing this, in 2007, when he announced, he had sky-high favorable ratings *and*was beating both Jim Gilmore and Tom Davis by over 20 points in early polling.

                  Plainly put, I'm in the right here, Warner was an 800 pound gorilla in 2008, much like Tom Udall was in New Mexico.

                  Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 25 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

                  by NMLib on Fri Jul 15, 2011 at 10:22:56 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  the topic (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY

                    was the re-elections of ultra rich Democratic Senators.  I was never only talking about 2008, or a single election, in fact Mark Warner was elected, not re-elected in 2008 so I really was not referring to 2008 at all.  Warner is one of the richest Senators, but he has not faced re-election at this time.  Usually ex-Governors are terrific nominees but Jim Gilmore was damaged goods after his massive implosion running for President in 2008.   Read my post again.

                    This is what you were reacting to

                    Look at his challengers in Kohl's 3 re-election campaigns.
                    *1994  St. Sen. Bob Welch   who got 40.69% of the vote.  He wanted out of Madison and decided it was DC or bust.  He went bust and has almost completely disappeared from active politics these days.
                    *2000  John Gillespie  37.04%  (a dude who operated Rawhide a troubled youth facility that trains kids to work on donated junker cars.  Rawhide became very political when ex-Packers QB Bart Starr helped get Rawhide an exemption from the legislature so they could receive tax monies without having to give up their homophobic discrimination policies.
                    *2006 Robert Lorge. 29.48%  He was a discredited fmr. State Senator the state GOP did not lift a finger to assist.  About the only votes outside of New London he won where from straight party line GOP voters.

                    Only 4 other Senators that I can think of are in the same financial zip code as Herb Kohl, they are Diane Feinstein, John Kerry, Mark Warner, and Jay Rockefeller.  The one common denominator they share other than extreme wealth  is they have faced lesser opposition on average from the GOP  than their Democratic colleagues.  The reason? Extreme personal wealth.

                    Here are the American Conservative Union scores for Kohl & Feingold for 2001, 2002, 2009 and lifetime.  Not nearly the gap your outrage implies.  I use these years because I located these years first, the years were not cherry picked by me.

                    I was talking about careers and ultra wealthy pols not a single election against a troll like Jim Gilmore.  I admit Mark Warner crushed the repulsive exGov Jim Gilmore in 2008. That does not make Mark Warner "more popular that Jesus" in Virginia.  It makes him a lot more popular than Jim Gilmore, which most Virginian politicians can likely claim these days, money or not.  

                    If Mark Warner was truly "more popular than Jesus"  Mark not John Warner would have won the Senate race in 1996 against John Warner.

                    NMLib's Virginia Popularity scale
                    #1 John Warner
                    #2 Mark Warner
                    #3 Jesus Christ
                    #4 Jim Gilmore

                    Now I get it! I see the light!

                    And I have no clue who would win a popularity poll between Governor Bob O'Donnell and Senator Mark Warner in Virginia at the moment.  O'Donnell is rather popular himself, unfortunately.  Not only is Mark Warner not more popular than Jesus, you have not even proven he is the most popular politician in Virginia currently.  So until you get your own facts straight stop throwing rocks at me.

                    "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

                    by walja on Fri Jul 15, 2011 at 11:25:15 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

        •  I think she can definitely do it, (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, drobertson, TofG, MichaelNY

          and would in fact be favored next year, especially in such a tough environment for Republicans in WI. I was just speaking to your claim about the poll supporting that she was a strong candidate for the general. I don't think it necessarily does that on its own.

    •  Baldwin (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      TofG, HoosierD42, MichaelNY, jncca

      The argument is that she's too far left for the general, not for the primary. When PPP polled it a few months ago she ran about the same against Thompson as Kagen and Kind did, but that may be misleading because all of them have fairly low name recognition. I suspect Baldwin would do worse than Kagen or Kind in the general in 7 of the 8 congressional districts, but probably only by a few points because the state appears to be so polarized.  

      SSP poster. 42, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Fri Jul 15, 2011 at 10:18:38 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  See comment above (0+ / 0-)

        Please explain why Russ Feingold, the Progressive Lion, was elected three times to the US Senate if Progressives cannot win statewide elections in Wisconsin.

        Or do you simply assume because Tammy is a lesbian she cannot win?

        Otherwise Russ Feingold's three statewide wins make a mockery of your concern Tammy is too liberal.

        About the only issue I can think of they might have parted company would be the Mathew Shepard Act which Russ voted no on.  And Russ was actually voting against extending the war in Afghanistan.  Russ was so liberal he was the only Democratic vote against extending the war which meant he voted with Shelby, Sessions, Inhofe, Coburn, Hatch and other homophobes against the Mathew Shepard Act which was added to the must pass bill by Majority Leader Harry Reid.

        So please explain why you fear Tammy, but  not Feingold.  The only true differences are gender and orientation between Feingold and Baldwin.

        And GLBT candidates will never win statewide if moderate and conservative Democrats never give them the chance, can they?

        The times they are a changing.

        "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

        by walja on Fri Jul 15, 2011 at 10:56:37 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Straw man argument (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Gpack3, MichaelNY, sacman701, jncca

          Nobody here is saying that Tammy Baldwin can't win. But we are saying that it will be harder for her than it would for someone who is more moderate. The Feingold example actually proves this point perfectly. He was able to get elected, but by narrow margins every time, and much less comfortably than Herb Kohl (and the reason Kohl won such large margins was not just because of his money).

          As for her sexual orientation, that will be a problem for her, even though it shouldn't be. Homophobia is still a big problem in society, and there will be some people who are less likely to vote for her because of it. And even more importantly, IMO, it's easier to paint a lesbian woman as a rabid leftwinger than it is to do the same to a straight man. Those double standards are very real.

          That doesn't mean that we shouldn't support Baldwin. I personally think the benefits of her running outweigh the risks. But we also shouldn't be in denial about those risks.

          Male, VA-08, Born CA-36, SwingStateProject expat

          by drobertson on Fri Jul 15, 2011 at 11:33:33 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Gut guess: Baldwin == Boxer (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            Feingold tied one hand behind his back when he campaigned. Boxer does not. I suspect Baldwin won't if/when she runs for Senate.

            It's true, Wisconsin can and has elected excellent progressives. I do believe that Baldwin can win Kohl's Senate seat. However, I also believe it will be a difficult battle, similar to some of Boxer's races in CA.In fact, the purplish nature of WI may make Baldwin's task even more difficult. Fortunately, it looks like Baldwin will tap into a fundraising network that would not otherwise contribute to other political campaigns.

            "I hope; therefore, I can live."
            For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

            by tietack on Fri Jul 15, 2011 at 11:41:17 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  response (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, The Caped Composer

          I would mostly echo what drobertson said. Feingold would have been a better fit for Vermont than Wisconsin. I suspect Baldwin might even do slightly better than Feingold as she would probably be willing to run a real campaign and may not have the same holier-than-thou attitude he has. I think she'd be able to win in 2012 with the Dem base in a frenzy, but she'd have trouble holding it especially in midterm years whereas Kagen or Kind would likely be able to lock it down.

          SSP poster. 42, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

          by sacman701 on Fri Jul 15, 2011 at 01:25:28 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  see my ADA post elsewhere (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            tietack, MichaelNY

            in this diary.  

            Perhaps you and drobertson are correct, but I am simply not detecting huge ideological differences in voting records between Baldwin - Kind - and Kagen, regardless if the rankings are Conservative - the American Conservative Union, or progressive - The Americans for Democratic Action.  

            I would suggest you are both exaggerating the ideological gap between the three, though Kind scores indicate he entered the House perhaps more conservative than he is these days, a mild shift left.  The years I looked at did not focus on these issues but I recall the two main issues Kind is conservative, more than either Baldwin or Kagen were Free Trade issues and Kind has yet to object to Presidents Bush or Obama on any action either has taken in Iraq or Afghanistan, regardless the party in the White House, Ron Kind supports military adventurism in the Middle East.  

            The one issue Kind and Kagen are clearly to the right of Baldwin actually are NRA related gun issues.  But after rooting around several sets of Interest groups ratings tonight I am surprised to report the huge gaps we are furiously arguing over amount to about 2 votes a year total believe it or not.

            The era of polarization appears to have reduced the amount of intra-party disagreements on policy options between same party House members in general it appears is what I have noticed tonight.

            Hope you choose to read read those two posts in this diary, the one with Baldwin - Kagen - Kind in the title and the one above it.  They are both rather long and i am not repasting them here due to length.

            "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

            by walja on Fri Jul 15, 2011 at 08:14:28 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  I'd be curious (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, TofG, MichaelNY

      about what a general election poll would say, but such results maybe should be taken cum grano salis since they are clearly a Republican-oriented pollster.  (And on a somewhat nitpicky note, what's with that "Democrat party" business in the writeup?)

    •  i never doubted her ability to win Democrats (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, MichaelNY, jncca

      I hope they polled general election numbers and are doing a staggered release

    •  Is Thompson running or what? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ndrwmls10, MichaelNY

      I know it's early, but an announcement was supposed to be weeks ago right?

    •  You should read this. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, walja

      19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin for Senate!

      by ndrwmls10 on Fri Jul 15, 2011 at 12:50:28 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  More on Oregon (7+ / 0-)

    Chris Dudley won't run against Kurt Schrader.  Bruun, Schrader's '10 opponent, said Dudley would've been the strongest candidate.

    Senate Majority Leader Diane Rosenbaum is considering running for BOLI Commissioner, the position Brad Avakian is leaving to pursue a run against David Wu.

    According to that story, former Dem house leader Dave Hunt is also considering it, and also considering running for the Clackamas County Commission or the new SD-20.  The commission looks attractive because its a full time job with full time pay, unlike the legislature.  However, SD-20 is an even senate district with a weak incumbent, a freshman from the class of '10 who won by just a couple hundred votes and raised little money.

    If Rosenbaum leaves the senate, state rep Jules Bailey may move up to replace her, and if he does, there'll be another scramble to fill his inner SE Portland house district.  That area's so Dem it's called the Kremlin.

    If Hunt leaves his new district, I'd look for Toby Forsberg to run, now that it's an Oregon City based district, but I don't know if he still lives there, and his aborted '10 campaign gives me doubts that he'd want to.

    "every time we start a pie fight a wingnut gets his wings"- MinistryofTruth -6.38, -4.15

    by James Allen on Fri Jul 15, 2011 at 09:52:20 AM PDT

    •  also, (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      tietack, supercereal, ArkDem14

      I was finally able to draw a congressional map based on the current orientation, that only divides three counties, and no cities other than Portland (and only on the west side), and has no population deviance greater than like 54.  And also would likely retain the 4/1 Democratic advantage, and in fact might strengthen it.

      Photobucket

      "every time we start a pie fight a wingnut gets his wings"- MinistryofTruth -6.38, -4.15

      by James Allen on Fri Jul 15, 2011 at 11:02:36 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Excellent News, and more (Steve Novick) (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, James Allen, SaoMagnifico

      Dudley would certainly be a more difficult candidate for Schrader. I would not be shocked to see him try in '14. Assuming President Obama is re-elected, that could easily become a toss-up race.

      From a recent WATN, Steve Novick is running for one of the Portland city commish slots -- and it looks like he'll swamp based on fundraising, ref http://www.portlandtribune.com/...

      Two weeks after he announced plans to run for the seat being vacated by Randy Leonard, Novick is already rolling in campaign dough. Novick, who filed on June 29, had posted nearly $69,000 in contributions by the beginning of this week. The largest donation came from his failed 2008 campaign for U.S. Senate – $5,424,42 in cash and $750 of in-kind services.

      I know, small potatoes compared to fed races, but huge compared to other city commish candidates.

      "I hope; therefore, I can live."
      For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

      by tietack on Fri Jul 15, 2011 at 11:18:47 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  WI-2 Rob Zerban power! (6+ / 0-)

    Rob Zerban continues to excite.  Paul Ryan has gone an entire decade without a serious challenge, since first winning the seat when Mark Neumann vacated the seat to run his losing Senate challenge to Russ Feingold in 1998.

    Naysayers may point out Paul Ryan seriously outraised Zerban this quarter, but trust me, if you compare Zerban's haul this quarter, it is more than most of Paul Ryan's past challengers have raised the entire election cycle.

    The state Democratic party said Friday that Zerban has raised $225,000 in the quarter ended June 30, and that he has $205,000 cash on hand. Party spokesman Graeme Zielinski said Zerban has more money than any previous challenger to Ryan as an incumbent.

    So good job Mr. Zerban!  If Paul Ryan is forced to stay home and defend himself, he can't be helping other Republicans in this critical election cycle as the battle for the future of Wisconsin politics goes forward.

    link to complete story on Zerban's funraising:
    http://www.channel3000.com/...

    "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

    by walja on Fri Jul 15, 2011 at 10:19:27 AM PDT

  •  I have a question about "dark money" ads (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    geoneb, MichaelNY

    If the people behind them don't want to reveal who they are, what's stopping progressives from running ads suggesting they're possibly run by satanists, skinheads and child molesters? "Why is Orrin Hatch accepting money from an organization that may be run by people who have sex with ponies?" "Who are the mysterious people behind Paul Ryan's ads? Could they be a white supremacist front group who like to burn down orphanages? We just don't know -- call Rep. Ryan and ask him who they are."

    Winning elections is great, but building movements is better.

    by Alvin K on Fri Jul 15, 2011 at 10:31:10 AM PDT

  •  FL-10: the Bill Young Retirement Watch on (again) (3+ / 0-)

    He raised only $8700 in Q2, $147K cash on hand.

    Roll Call article

    23, male, Democrat (-4.50, -3.79), NY-05 (born + early childhood), NY-21 (college), NY-09 (current)

    by Nickers on Fri Jul 15, 2011 at 10:51:10 AM PDT

  •  Kate Marshall has (4+ / 0-)

    has raised $246K and $206K on hand.

    19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Fri Jul 15, 2011 at 11:57:31 AM PDT

  •  Gillibrand raised (8+ / 0-)

    $3.28 and has $5.84 COH.

    19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Fri Jul 15, 2011 at 11:59:13 AM PDT

  •  Good Q2 numbers from Hochul (9+ / 0-)

    Kathy Hochul raised $132K in the final 2 weeks of Q2; $204K COH.

    Also, Ann Marie Buerkle raised $121K in Q2; $206K COH.

    23, male, Democrat (-4.50, -3.79), NY-05 (born + early childhood), NY-21 (college), NY-09 (current)

    by Nickers on Fri Jul 15, 2011 at 12:12:09 PM PDT

  •  Bachmann raised (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, MichaelNY

    19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Fri Jul 15, 2011 at 12:21:28 PM PDT

    •  What's her CoH? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      If she's using churn-and-burn direct mail fundraising, as I suspect she  is, that's probably not as much as it seems.

      Male, VA-08, Born CA-36, SwingStateProject expat

      by drobertson on Fri Jul 15, 2011 at 12:53:13 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Jennifer Rubin is an ignorant idiot (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, SaoMagnifico

      I think just about every time I follow a link to one of her blog posts, she's written something stupid.

      Bachmann's haul is good.  She had 3 weeks and had just filed papers, as Rubin admits it can take a little time to ramp up.  And also as Rubin admits, extrapolated over 13 weeks (3 months) that's a pace of $12 million for a quarter.  Rubin tries to say that's unimpressive compared to Mittster, but that's stupid.  The pace is actually much closer to Mitt than anyone would've expected, and plenty close enough to stay toe-to-toe.

      The real question is burn rate.  If Bachmann relied on direct mail with a high burn rate, then she's in trouble.  Also we have no idea about her willingness to do call time, or whether she's picked only low-hanging fruit and the pace will decline.

      But those qualifications aside, the numbers revealed so far are very good for her.  If her burn rate is low (i.e., keep it down to one-third which is where Mitt's was in Q2), and she keeps up the pace and works hard, she's actually in good shape.

      43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Fri Jul 15, 2011 at 01:09:45 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Well, more like 2 million (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      She transferred 2 million from her House account.

  •  Some news on the Newt (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, itskevin, MichaelNY

    Newt's campaign is $1.03 million dollars in debt; ~$322K COH.

    Washington Post article

    23, male, Democrat (-4.50, -3.79), NY-05 (born + early childhood), NY-21 (college), NY-09 (current)

    by Nickers on Fri Jul 15, 2011 at 12:26:39 PM PDT

  •  This is creepy.... (3+ / 0-)

    The NRSC stalked Shelley Berkley while she was in New York and made an ad.

    19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Fri Jul 15, 2011 at 12:52:50 PM PDT

  •  List of Obama bundlers for Q2 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    www.barackobama.com/pages/volunteer-fundraisers-Q2

  •  The same series that profiled Bruning (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ArkDem14

    Also recently profiled DKE star Josh Mandel.  Here are some typically-annoying excerpts:

    Both Mandel and his supporters emphasize his cross-party appeal. He proudly notes that he won a seat in the state legislature in a district where registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans two to one. He believes that "right now in our country, the citizens of our nation are becoming more independent, and I try to do everything I can to knock down partisan lines."

    Although he's demonstrated his ability to appeal to independents and conservative Democrats, Mandel is in line with conservatives when it comes to policy. "He's just great on the issues and has been right from the start," said Jack Boyle, an Ohio tea party leader and chairman of the Ohio Prosperity Initiative. Of call the 2010 candidates, he said "Josh was sort of the most uncomplicated. He was already there on the issues."

    Mandel talks about politics in a way that sounds like a candidate for higher office. "A lot of the underlying principles of our country are being threatened," he said. He says he sees fear of this threat among Ohioans for "the first time in my lifetime."

    http://voices.washingtonpost.com/...

    Questions:
    1) How did he win that state legislative seat?  Any locals have any info?
    2) Does "was sort of the most uncomplicated" mean "would already say whatever vacuous crap we wanted"?
    3) Is the WaPo making a cynical joke when they refer to vague, idiotic fear-mongering as something that "sounds like a candidate for higher office"?

    25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

    by Xenocrypt on Fri Jul 15, 2011 at 01:09:05 PM PDT

  •  MI Rep Dale Kildee(D) to retire (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, MichaelNY, itskevin

    Does this hurt our chances of keeping the seat?

  •  OR-01 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Wu raised 235k, Avakian raised 195k.

    Neither is particularly impressive.

    "every time we start a pie fight a wingnut gets his wings"- MinistryofTruth -6.38, -4.15

    by James Allen on Fri Jul 15, 2011 at 01:36:57 PM PDT

    •  who is still giving Wu money? (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, Nickers, jncca, MichaelNY

      Is what baffles me.

      "If people doled out nutkickings where they are deserved, the world would be a better place." -Marcel Inhoff

      by ArkDem14 on Fri Jul 15, 2011 at 02:23:37 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  From the article: other Asian Americans (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, MichaelNY
        In the first quarter, much of Wu's money came from Asian-American contributors from around the country and from political action committees.  Weigler said he expected the that Wu did in the second quarter, which he described as "attracting gobs of special interest and PAC money from backers outside the state."

        Which suggests the reason why the D leadership has been so careful about Wu. Asian Americans with a far eastern ancestry are a strong D constituency, but could drift if the leadership takes the wrong approach with Wu.

        "I hope; therefore, I can live."
        For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

        by tietack on Fri Jul 15, 2011 at 02:44:12 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  in addition, a few unions, (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        though I know some have turned off the spigots to him.

        "every time we start a pie fight a wingnut gets his wings"- MinistryofTruth -6.38, -4.15

        by James Allen on Fri Jul 15, 2011 at 02:45:31 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I see Wu as a Democratic version of (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, jncca

        Dan Burton of Indiana.  Common wisdom makes it obvious to perhaps even a majority of voters in the primary they should retire, but so many ambitious politicians smell blood they all jump the horse and the incumbent slides through to re-election with a decent plurality of the vote.  

        Dan Burton should have exited the House years ago but GOP leaders act like Life of Brian People's Fronts and both Burton and Wu still have support, if just a plurality, and it vexes many they survive like they do.

        Burton already faces a split opposition in the primary, just like Wu's primary is shaping up so far in 2012

        "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

        by walja on Fri Jul 15, 2011 at 08:36:40 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  And still no word... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      From Suzanne Bonamici. But if Commissioner Avakian remains this unimpressive, and Brad Witt performs about as dismally as I expect he will, she might be the only person who could get both of them on board against Rep. Wu.

      Independent, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Fri Jul 15, 2011 at 10:25:36 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  WI Recalls - Pasch and Darling in dead heat. (10+ / 0-)

    Pasch leads Darling 47-46.

    http://www.jsonline.mobi/...

    19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Fri Jul 15, 2011 at 02:11:32 PM PDT

  •  WI-Recall: Tied in the 8th (10+ / 0-)

    As alluded to yesterday, Democratic internal polling indicates that all six GOP incumbents are under 50 percent approval, but did not release head to heads.  Well they released at least one for the 8th SD and the poll had Pasch leading Darling 47-46:
    http://www.jsonline.com/...

    What I find really encouraging is that in an earlier poll done in May by Mellman, Darling had a lead of 9 so Pasch (at least according to this one poll) has really been an aggressive campaigner, although Darling and her allies have yet to hit the airwaves like We are Wisconsin has.

    All Wisconsin, All the Time, Social Democrat, currently WI-05 (Home)

    by glame on Fri Jul 15, 2011 at 02:14:49 PM PDT

    •  Full polling memo (5+ / 0-)

      http://www.wispolitics.com/...

      I wonder if they will release any more polls, particularly the 2nd, 10th, and 14th, as the 18th and 32nd seem pretty solid for the Dems.

      All Wisconsin, All the Time, Social Democrat, currently WI-05 (Home)

      by glame on Fri Jul 15, 2011 at 02:34:46 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Begs question, why this one? (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, itskevin, MichaelNY

        I love it, and Mellman is a top national pollster.

        And I know enough not to read anything into lack of simultaneous disclosure on internals in other races.

        But it still makes me wonder why this race for a release?

        We really need to take the state Senate for morale.  It's a huge motivator heading into the Ohio SB5 repeal and then 2012.

        43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Fri Jul 15, 2011 at 07:24:14 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  A top pollster? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Sure he proved his chops in NV, but he still has a bad report with Nate Silver, doesn't he?

          Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo! So little time, so much to know!

          by KingofSpades on Fri Jul 15, 2011 at 07:39:29 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Why not? (5+ / 0-)

          Darling was the toughest of the bunch to unseat... This release will get a lot of attention.

          GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

          by LordMike on Fri Jul 15, 2011 at 08:14:10 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  In addition to this (7+ / 0-)

            I think the idea is that if a Senator with as high of a position, with as much money, and with as active conservative base (think Circle of Ignorance, MKE talk radio) as Darling is vulnerable, then certainly any other Senator can go down.  Indeed, I would say Darling is looking to be the hardest to take down and probably been running the best campaign out of all the Republicans.  Although conversely, Pasch has been running one of the best campaigns out of the Democrats and her profile is the perfect foil to Darling.

            All Wisconsin, All the Time, Social Democrat, currently WI-05 (Home)

            by glame on Fri Jul 15, 2011 at 08:37:36 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Darling (5+ / 0-)

              I have a mildly different take on the Darling race.

              I personally view Robert Cowles as the hardest Republican to successfully recall.  Alberta would be next hardest at #5 on my list.

              But I do agree Darling hit the ground running at the first hint of a recall.  Of all the recalled Republicans, she understood her danger and reacted immediately to save her career.  Darling also has raised the most money.  It is easy to raise money when you are allowed to seek contributions while writing the budget.  Normally that would be illegal but the recalls triggered fundraising rules which allowed recalled Senators only to raise funds during the legislative budget writing session.

              But Alberta Darling has two millstones around her neck that are simply killing her with the voters.

              First, as Chair of the Budget Committee there is no separating herself from the Walker budget as she wrote much of it.  And polling is not indicating the budget is like fine wine and gets better with age, lol.  
              Second, 4 to 6 weeks ago during the apex of the Hochul special election, Alberta was recorded talking about Paul Ryan in reverential tones praising his wisdom and the amazing insights Ryan had on Medicare reform.  This past week Alberta has been desperately trying to walk back all the Ryan praise in a desperate attempt to de-link her campaign from the Ryan budget plan after all that Ryan adulation and praise showed up in Recall Darling ads, lol.

              Good luck with the backward duck walk Alberta!

              "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

              by walja on Fri Jul 15, 2011 at 10:11:55 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  I had been skeptical linking to Ryan would work... (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                walja, Christopher Walker, MichaelNY

                ...but Darling's reaction as you describe suggests it's working.

                I had thought ordinary voters would be reluctant to see a link between state-level elections and Ryan's plan to abolish Medicare.  But if Darling is running scared of Ryan now, then it's working.

                43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

                by DCCyclone on Sat Jul 16, 2011 at 05:53:01 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Initially, (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY, DCCyclone

                  I thought it was Darling's intention to link herself to Ryan, at least indirectly, to ensure base support. Maybe that's partly what's going on here: she needs to balance the concerns of the base against those of indies, and she's having a hard time threading that needle.

    •  that's fucking awesome. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      drobertson, SaoMagnifico, MichaelNY

      If we can knock out Darling then we can knock out any of them.

      "every time we start a pie fight a wingnut gets his wings"- MinistryofTruth -6.38, -4.15

      by James Allen on Fri Jul 15, 2011 at 02:44:16 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  That's amazing, thanks! n/t (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY
  •  CA redistricting (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, tommypaine, KingofSpades

    GOP Chairman Tom Del Beccaro said the party will attempt to qualify a referendum for the ballot to overturn the commission's final maps if they "remotely resemble the most recent visualizations."

    Read more: http://www.vcstar.com/...
    - vcstar.com

    http://www.vcstar.com/...

    One of any number of criticisms by the GOP of the preliminary maps.  I suppose they are unhappy enough to have second thoughts on the referendum [which was their baby], and would prefer one drawn by the Democratic legislature and signed by a Democratic governor.

    Note the comment that a 2/3 majority of the legislature is possible, which is the number needed for a tax increase or ballot proposal

    •  He's getting ahead of himself (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      The visualizations are incomprehsible to be sure, and Republicans would likely do better on a map drawn by Democrats just like last time... but it's a spoiled brat rant to bitch even before the next draft maps are  unveiled.  There are several visualizations.  Why rant about one but ignore others with different lines?

      http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/11/13/21516/201/804/660248

      by tommypaine on Sat Jul 16, 2011 at 12:02:40 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Massachusetts Senate - Elizabeth Warren (4+ / 0-)

    With news out of DC that Obama will not forward Elizabeth Warren's nomination to head the Consumer's Protection Bureau a second time I have to think she truly is exploring running for the Massachusetts Senate seat against Scott Brown.

    I don't have the link any longer but a few days ago i was reading how interesting it was that her recent travel schedule just happened to include a large number of prominent Democrats who are in a position to recruit or persuade her to take the plunge.

    Now that the Consumer Protection door has closed, perhaps a Senate door will open for Warren.

    "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

    by walja on Fri Jul 15, 2011 at 09:46:40 PM PDT

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