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Goal Thermometer
Mellman Group for the Democratic Party of Wisconsin (PDF), 718/-19, 350 Wisconsin voters, MoE 5, May numbers in parenthesis
Fred Clark (D): 45 (38)
Luther Olsen (R-inc): 43 (43)
Undecided: 12 (20)

We're winning in Wisconsin. Please, contribute $1 to each of the Democratic recall candidates.

Some quick notes on this poll:

  • This makes Clark the fourth Democrat to lead a Republican state senator in the Wisconsin recall elections, joining Jennifer Shilling (+14), Jessica King (+3), and Sandy Pasch (+1). Democrats only need three such wins to take control of the state Senate and win the overall campaign.
  • Clark's lead increases to 50-44 within the slightly smaller universe of likely voters.
  • Olsen has made no gains since May, which can often happen to incumbents. Undecided voters are breaking overwhelmingly for Clark.
  • It's a small sample, with a large margin of error. However, Clark's two-point lead exactly matches the two-point lead a generic Democrat had against Olsen in our PPP recall poll back in March.
  • It's an internal poll, but it concluded yesterday, and it's the first poll they conducted since May.
The bottom line is that the Wisconsin recall campaigns are extremely close, but Democrats are winning. This is going to come right down to the end.

Please, contribute $1 to each of the Democratic recall candidates in Wisconsin.

Originally posted to Chris Bowers on Wed Jul 20, 2011 at 05:16 PM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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