Fifty states in the Union. Which ones will get the most attention next year?
Though it rankles some (I can personally recall some scintillating pie fights on the subject during the era of debates over a "50-state strategy" back in the day), it is inevitable that some states will receive more attention than others at election time.
Attention can be defined in numerous ways. Attention can be defined as media attention; it can be defined as activist attention (it wasn't CNN that made Wisconsin the epicenter of American politics this year, after all); and it can be defined in the cold hard cash dispensed by both campaigns and party committees.
With the elections still off in the considerable distance (excluding those four states holding statewide elections in the off-year), today represents our first chance to examine which states will be the electoral battlegrounds of 2012.
To create this list, I elected to create a simple formula. The parameters are below. They are subject to debate, of course, and I am more than willing to entertain tweaks to this formula given a compelling argument.
Here are the criteria I created:
1. THE RACE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE
As always happens, we can expect Barack Obama's re-election to consume the lion's share of the oxygen in this campaign cycle. So, it is weighted the heaviest. The math here was pretty simple: start with the state's electoral votes. Then divide it by a number that is created by drawing an average of the assessment of the three best known elections prognosticators. Unfortunately for us, at this early stage, only one of the three pundits (Charlie Cook) has offered ratings on the presidential level. So, this will get revised as time goes on, of course. If they rate a state as a toss-up, it was assigned a value of 1. If they rate a state as leaning in one direction, it was assigned a value of 2. If they rate a state as likely to go in one direction, it was assigned a value of 4. If they rate a state as safe, it was assigned a value of 8. For example, Florida is the highest rated state: a toss-up worth 29 electoral votes. The lowest was a tie among several states (Delaware, Vermont, DC, Wyoming and the Dakotas all come to mind). Three electoral votes in each case, rated by Cook as safely in one party's corner.
2. THE RACE FOR THE U.S. SENATE
With Senate control potentially at a knife's edge, the upper chamber in Congress will deservedly get a lot of attention here. We will also look at the race ratings provided by three prognosticators: Cook, Stu Rothenberg and Larry Sabato. And all three have offered an early take on the landscape. Because we are not dividing here, the figures are inverted. If a race is defined as a toss-up, it will be worth eight points. If a race is defined as "leaning" to a party (even if it is not the incumbent party), it will be worth four points. A race defined as "likely" to go to a certain party gets two points. A "safe" seats gets absolutely nothing. The state's "Senate rating" is created by averaging the three scores together. In other words, if two of the guys have a race as leaning Democratic, while one has it as a likely Democratic race, the overall rating would be 3.33.
3. THE RACE FOR THE U.S. HOUSE
Count me among those who think House control could also be very easily at a knife's edge. We will also go with the prognosticators here as well (who will eventually be replaced by our own Daily Kos Elections race ratings, by the way). Because it is possible for one state to have multiple races in the mix, the point values here will dissipate a bit: four points for a toss-up, two points for a leaner, and one point for a "likely" rating. Once again, an average of the three pundits will be taken.
It is worth noting that, of all the parameters, this is the one that seems the most likely to shift dramatically, since the whims of redistricting are going to play a substantial role here. Also, expect big shifts as we go along, because one of the three pundits (Rothenberg) appears to only be forecasting in states where redistricting is already completed.
4. THE RACE FOR THE STATEHOUSE
For now, this will mean just the gubernatorial races. I'd like to also add vulnerable state legislatures to the mix (a task I'm sure to which our good friends at the DLCC would be more than willing to offer their two cents). For the sake of simplicity, let's offer up the same point values as the Senate races.
Based on that set of parameters, I hammered the numbers for all 50 states (plus DC, despite the lack of Congressional races) into a database. Before we find ourselves checking out the top 10, however, let's take a quick look at the bottom five.
A quintet of states all have something in common: statewide races with no intrigue whatsoever, a single (and, thus far, deemed uncompetitive) House race, and three electoral votes whose landing place are not in doubt. So congrats to Wyoming, Washington D.C., South Dakota, Delaware, and Alaska for being collectively heaved into the "foregone conclusions" pile. Each earned the minimum possible score of 0.38. I don't know if I agree with the prognosticators on this one (I don't think SD-AL is a foregone conclusion, for example), but the political press is unlikely to bear down on these places anytime real soon.
Which states are far from foregone conclusions? Behold, the top 10:
10. WISCONSIN (14.34 points)
This years' most-watched political state may well be 2012's most-watched political state, as well. You have an open seat Senate battle that is bound to be competitive, with top tier candidates on either side. Half of the state's eight seats in the House could be worth watching (Ryan, Kind, Duffy, Ribble), pending the whims of redistricting. Add to that a potential gubernatorial recall (which is not yet included in the point totals) and 10 electoral votes that could be up for grabs in November, and you have a lot of reasons to pay attention to the Badger State, even after the recalls this summer.
9. MONTANA (16.05 points)
Sure, it's tiny. Sure, it only has three electoral votes and almost everyone assumes that they will be headed to the GOP. But Montana has three races to watch below the race for the White House, and those races propel Big Sky Country into the top 10. A U.S. Senate showdown between incumbent Democratic Sen. Jon Tester and Republican Rep. Denny Rehberg might be the one that decides control of the Senate. Meanwhile, former GOP Rep. Rick Hill seeks a career comeback in an exciting open seat gubernatorial race where it looks like a couple of legit Democrats are eying the race. Finally, Rehberg's departure opens up a House seat that could also be extremely competitive.
8. NEVADA (16.67 points)
I'd fully expect the Silver State to move up the charts as we go along, particularly as the redistricting process works itself out and a clearer picture of the state's quartet of House races emerges. The Senate battle between appointed Sen. Dean Heller (R) and longtime Rep. Shelly Berkley (D) looks like a real coin flip, as does the battle for the state's six electoral votes.
7. CALIFORNIA (18.53 points)
It is the biggest prize in the race for the White House (55 electoral votes), but that really isn't why California makes the list. After all, few doubt that the president will, as he did in 2008, easily seize those electoral votes for the Democrats. What lands Cali on the list, quite simply, is the House. After a decade of largely (and often absurdly) uncompetitive races for Congress, the independent redistricting process threatens to shake up the House race picture in the Golden State, with as many as a dozen incumbents in both parties potentially getting legitimate sweats in their bids for re-election. A clearer picture of the districts will emerge by the end of the summer, but a certain healthy layer of chaos seems inevitable. There is also a Senate race, but that one seems unlikely to be interesting, absent a primary challenge or a retirement, neither of which seems particularly likely.
6. MISSOURI (19.00 points)
Mizzou makes the list because of the wide variety of contests on the docket in 2012. In addition to a battle for its 10 electoral votes that is not a lock for either side (though virtually everyone makes the GOP a narrow favorite), you also have a potentially vulnerable Democratic incumbent seeking re-election to the Senate. Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) has middling poll numbers, but her two GOP rivals (Rep. Todd Akin and former state treasurer Sarah Steelman) have been a touch underwhelming, particularly on the fundraising front. Meanwhile, speaking of underwhelming, everyone assumed that GOP Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder would provide a first-tier challenge to incumbent Gov. Jay Nixon (D). His campaign thus far, however, has been a comedy of errors, and the general consensus is that Nixon is now a betting favorite. Missouri's House races have largely been gerrymandered into irrelevance, though there is some intrigue in seeing where Rep. Russ Carnahan (D) decides to make his final stand. If he does it in the open (and red-tinted) 2nd District, that might make for a race worth watching.
5. PENNSYLVANIA (21.32 points)
By the time 2012 actually rolls around, I'd be willing to wager that the Keystone State will leap into the top three. With the huge shift in the House last year here, one has to assume that barring a truly unreal gerrymandering effort by the GOP-dominated lege, there will be a number of interesting races to watch in November. This could also be the epicenter of presidential politics, as well: few states have seen the president's numbers erode more than Pennsylvania. As a result, the state looks like a real coin flip. If there is a relatively quiet race here, it might prove to be the Senate race. Sen. Bob Casey (D) is in his first re-election bid, but the GOP seems to lack a candidate with the horsepower to take advantage.
4. VIRGINIA (21.67 points)
Virginia was one of the big surprises of 2008, a historically red state that suddenly wasn't. It won't sneak up on anybody in 2012, and that means that there will be a lot of eyes on the Commonwealth next year. If presidential politics didn't put Virginia into the political conversation, the fact that the highest profile Senate race in America is located there would ensure a lot of attention. Both George Allen (R) and Tim Kaine (D) are making their comeback attempts in electoral politics, in what might be the most expensive Senate race in the nation. As for House races, redistricting is certain to play a role here. Three House seats changed hands in 2010, with a fourth less than one percent from doing so.
3. NORTH CAROLINA (24.50 points)
The Tar Heel State might be Tar Hell for the Democrats, at least where the House is concerned. North Carolina was the GOP's version of Redistmas, as they could net as many as four seats in the state delegation. Furthermore, the state is the site of a gubernatorial battle that has been established basically since the day the polls closed in 2008. It is a rematch, as embattled Democratic Gov. Bev Perdue gets challenged by Republican Pat McCrory. McCrory has led in pretty much every poll to date. Last, but certainly not least, there is the presidential sweepstakes. North Carolina was one of the three closest states in the Union in 2008, and it may well be again, if recent polling is any indicator.
2. OHIO (26.00 points)
Ohio always seems to get attention on Election Day. For certain, 2012 will be no exception. The state might have lost a couple of electoral votes in the reapportionment process (when two House seats were eliminated), but its 18 electoral votes are still considered essential to the march to 270 for both parties. Add to that what promises (post-redistricting) to be a bunch of interesting House races, especially with two districts being drawn out of existence. As of right now, the Senate race looks good for incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown (D), but youthful Republican Josh Mandel raised a boatload of cash last quarter, and has to be taken at least somewhat seriously.
1. FLORIDA (39.66 points)
Just like in 2000, when the late Tim Russert scribbled it on his whiteboard, the election is largely going to be about "Florida, Florida, Florida." Now up to 29 electoral votes after redistricting, it is the largest presidential prize whose partisan leanings are not clearly pronounced. As such, it will reside squarely at the top of the target lists for both parties heading into 2012. On top of that, the redistricting process here could yield six or more competitive House races, and it offers Democrats a great villain to slay in the form of Rep. Allen West. Add to that a Senate race that could heat up at any time with longtime Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson (though his GOP rivals have been underwhelming thus far), and you have a state that offers a ton of intrigue in the 2012 election cycle.
Who could crack this top ten? Michigan just missed the cut, but could be well worth watching now that the Senate race is becoming more defined. Iowa could have, and this is a rarity, all of its House races become truly competitive. For its House races alone, both Illinois and New York merit a lot of attention.
The big wild cards here are twofold: redistricting and the GOP primary. The redistricting process could make states infinitely more interesting (California), or it could turn the state's House races into a snoozefest (Wisconsin, if the proposed plan there holds up). The Republican presidential sweepstakes matters, as well. Michigan matters less, for example, if Mitt Romney is not the GOP nominee.
This is a list we will be sure to revisit as we move closer to the heat of the cycle. It is also a formula we will revisit. Some possible shifts: using polling instead of race ratings (it's way too early for that, given the relative dearth of data), or using our own Daily Kos Elections race ratings. And, as mentioned before, suggestions and tweaks in the comments are more than welcome.