**crossposted from RRH**
While I'm working on writing up my State Senate map (62 districts, ugh...) I thought I'd cross-post my Congressional map done in the same style here-- maximizing VRA districts in NYC, otherwise pretty clean.
There's been wide-spread consensus that the NY map would be an incumbent protection one, axing one upstate Republican and one downstate Democrat.
One thing that could throw a wrench into that calculation is the VRA. NY has currently 2 Black VRA seats and one Hispanic VRA seat.
It is easy enough to keep the map largely similar to its current shape and increase the number of Black districts to 3, but an increase in Hispanic districts throws the whole NY map off.
This is a mostly fair map that draws three Black VRA districts and three Hispanic VRA districts (by CVAP). The NYC part is mostly shaped around these districts, the Upstate and Long Island part is mostly CoI.
Overall I would say the NYC part came out favorably for the GOP and the Upstate Part favorably for Democrats. But that's only the undoing of the Upstate incumbent protection map from 2000 which, given the fact that almost every Upstate Congressman was Republican back then, was like a GOP gerrymander except for the earmuffs seat.
I tried to keep the numbers mostly the same as in the current map, but as some districts are completely eliminated there are some oddities in there.
NY-01 (Bishop)
This is the new district in which Bishop and Altschuler will square off in 2012. It is slightly more friendly for the Republicans, but considering that Bishop survived 2010 in a district that is not all that Democratic, he should still be considered the favorite.
50.1% Obama, 49% McCain
82.5% White, 3.2 % Black, 9.5 % Hispanic, 3.9 % Asian ---All demographic numbers in this diary are VAP unless otherwise indicated---
Bishop: 65.7%, Israel: 27.7%, King: 4.7%, Lowey: 1.9%
Lean D with Bishop, Lean R when open.
NY-02 (Israel)
53% Obama, 46% McCain
69.4% White, 6.8 % Black, 19.5 % Hispanic, 3 % Asian
Israel: 45.7%, Bishop: 32.6%, King: 21.7%
Although this is mostly Israel's district (and the only one he could run in) he's been drawn out of it. Both preceding Congressmen, Rick Lazio (R) and Thomas Downey (D), who served from 1975 to 1992, but is still just 62 years old, live within the borders.
Given that Israel's old district was trending R (57% Gore, 53% Kerry, 56% Obama, or D+7,D+5,D+3) a three point hit for Democrats here should put the seat in reach for Republicans soon enough.
Likely D with Israel or Downey (who lives in the GOP stronghold of this seat, Islip), Toss-Up in an open seat now, Lean R towards the end of the decade.
NY-03 Peter King
50.2% Obama, 49% McCain
77.7% White, 5.5 % Black, 9.9 % Hispanic, 5.8 % Asian
King: 52.3%, McCarthy: 26.7%, Israel: 21%
King and Israel both live here. While Israel could probably give King a scare he'd be crazy to run here. Otherwise King is still save even though his district moves three points to the left. He won 56-44 in 2006 in his closest election ever, so he can take a three point hit.
McCarthy could choose to run here too, and she might actually do that, since her other options are even more suicidal. But her hometown of Mineola isn't in the seat.
King's old district was trending R even faster than Israel's: D+3->R+2->R+6. At that rate his new district should be about as Republican in 2012 as his old was in 2008.
Likely R with King against Israel, Safe R when open (except for in a Special Election, then it's Likely D :P), Safe R with King against another Democrat, including McCarthy.
NY-04 is dismantled and moves upstate-- awkward, I know. I already uploaded the screenshots to Flickr though, otherwise I'd swap district numbers with NY-20, which is now downstate.
NY-05
This district is a very interesting mix of CoI's and probably the district most gerrymandered towards the D side, I admit-- from Upstate NY Democrats to Great Neck Jews and Persian Immigrants to Garden City Conservatives to Queens Asian Democrats.
57% Obama, 42.2% McCain
66.9% White, 5.3 % Black, 12.8 % Hispanic, 13.5 % Asian
Ackerman: 33.5%, Lowey: 28.9%, McCarthy: 19.7%, King: 9%, Crowley: 3.9%
Ackerman probably has a better district to run in, Lowey and McCarthy have no obvious better choices. Of course, the interesting-- or should I say ugly-- CoI mix is also visible in the bases. Ackerman has the Great Neck Jews, Lowey the Upstate Dems, McCarthy the Asians and Garden City Cons.
In terms of a Democratic primary, Lowey's old constituents produced 66,400 Obama votes in 2008, McCarthy's 30,200 and Ackerman's 61,200.
Additionally 1,000 Obama voters come from Israel's seat, 15,600 from King's, 4,600 from Meeks', 4,600 from Crowley's, and 2,600 from Weiner's.
This means that Lowey has a plurality of votes and a strong plurality over McCarthy, but at the same time 2/3 of votes in the primary come from downstate. An interesting dynamic.
If Ackerman runs, who also lives here, I'd consider him the favorite over Lowey.
Safe D with an incumbent, Likely D as an open seat.
NY-06
83.4% Obama, 16.2% McCain
18.2% White, 51.4 % Black, 19.2 % Hispanic, 7.1 % Asian
Meeks: 49.9%, McCarthy: 46%, Ackerman: 2.1%, King: 2%, Bishop: 0%
Yes, nominally McCarthy has just slightly fewer constituents than Meeks here. Still, running here would be impossible. She'd need to handily win the majority-black parts of her district AND win over majority-black parts of Meeks' old district. Not gonna happen.
Safe D, Black VRA
NY-07
80.9% Obama, 18.6% McCain
26.6% White, 34.6 % Black, 31.6 % Hispanic, 4.8 % Asian
Engel: 47.9%, Crowley: 37.3%, Lowey: 14.8%, Bishop: 0%, Bishop: 0%
Although this district consists of Engel's and Crowley's district I don't think either of them is capable of winning a primary here. The African-American constituents in Engel's district have often been close to revolting against him, most notably in 2000 when he won the Democratic primary just by single digits, and united with African-American and Hispanic constituents from Crowley's district I think a strong African-American candidate would be favored over either of them.
Also, Crowley's strength is the backing of the Queens County machine, but this district is Bronx-based.
State Senators Ruth Hassell-Thompson (the successor of the unsuccessful 2000 challenger to Engel) or Andrea Stewart-Cousins (one of the few African-American state legislators from competitive districts who defeated a GOP incumbent in 2006) would be strong candidates in the primary.
Safe D
NY-08
81.7% Obama, 17.3% McCain
62.6% White, 4.5 % Black, 13.6 % Hispanic, 17.3 % Asian
Maloney: 37.1%, Nadler: 33%, Velázquez: 23.4%, Towns: 6.5%, Rangel: 0%
Maloney and Velázquez both have better districts to run in, so I don't think Nadler will be challenged here. The district is pretty similar to his old one, even the parts that he doesn't represent already.
Safe D
NY-09
64.7% Obama, 34.5% McCain
40.6% White, 4.9 % Black, 18.1 % Hispanic, 34.1 % Asian
Weiner: 43.7%, Ackerman: 37.9%, Meeks: 9.4%, Velázquez: 5.4%, Crowley: 3.6%
Weiner's old district is reshaped into a heavily Asian district that's safe for Democrats.
If Ackerman forgoes the primary against Lowey he'd probably have a good chance here against an Asian Democrat, especially if he can unite the Jewish vote.
It is often forgotten that Asian Citizenship rates are even lower than Hispanic ones. By my estimate, while the White advantage in VAP is just 41-34, it is 49-28 by CVAP.
Safe D
NY-10
79.8% Obama, 19.8% McCain
28.3% White, 50.6 % Black, 13.3 % Hispanic, 4.9 % Asian
Towns: 35.1%, Clarke: 21.7%, Meeks: 18.7%, Weiner: 15.3%, Nadler: 9.2%
Towns and Clarke will need to sit down and discuss who runs here and who in the more appealing 11th district. I suppose Clarke, a not very well-liked ineffective three-term Congresswoman, will have to defer to the long-term Representative Towns.
Safe D, Black VRA
NY-11
95.5% Obama, 4.1% McCain
20.4% White, 58.2 % Black, 15.6 % Hispanic, 3.3 % Asian
Clarke: 52.2%, Towns: 46.3%, Velázquez: 1.5%
Whoever doesn't run in NY-10 of Clarke and Towns can run and win here.
Safe D, Black VRA
NY-12
83.5% Obama, 15.9% McCain
12.7% White, 9.4 % Black, 54.5 % Hispanic, 18.8 % Asian
Velázquez: 33.4%, Crowley: 22%, Ackerman: 19.3%, Weiner: 11.1%, Meeks: 10.3%
While Crowley could maybe survive a 55% Hispanic district if he were the unambigous incumbent, he certainly couldn't beat Velázquez in a primary here. Based on American Community Survey 2009 data, by my estimation the district is about 51.5% Hispanic CVAP, 16.7% White CVAP, 16.4% Asian CVAP, 11.3% Black CVAP.
Safe D, Hispanic VRA
NY-13
53.7% Obama, 45.5% McCain
57.3% White, 6.9 % Black, 20.6 % Hispanic, 13.6 % Asian
Grimm: 76.3%, Velázquez: 18%, Nadler: 3.8%, Clarke: 1.9%, Bishop: 0%
NY-13 is made more competitive by combining Staten Island with heavily Democratic and Hispanic precincts instead of Asian-Jewish Republican ones.
Grimm could probably hold on against most Democrats, but MacMahon would make this an instant Toss-Up.
Toss-Up with MacMahon or in an open seat, Lean to likely R with Grimm against someone who's not MacMahon. Maybe lean R against Diane Savino.
NY-14
80% Obama, 19.1% McCain
59.3% White, 6.1 % Black, 19.3 % Hispanic, 13.2 % Asian
Maloney: 54.2%, Crowley: 13.9%, Rangel: 12.7%, Nadler: 12.2%, Velázquez: 5.9%
Maloney should be more than fine here. She loses Midtown to the compacted Nadler district (check out the mess it is right now), and picks up the Upper West Side in return.
Safe D
NY-15
92% Obama, 7.4% McCain
16.7% White, 19.6 % Black, 57 % Hispanic, 4.9 % Asian
Rangel: 57.1%, Serrano: 28.3%, Engel: 14%, Maloney: 0.4%, Crowley: 0.2%
Rangel, unfortunately, because I really like him, gets a seat he probably can't win. The CVAP picture is little better for him -- 51% Hispanic, 22% Black, 21% White--, and I think a Hispanic-White coalition will probably boot him in favor of a Hispanic candidate such as Sen. Adriano Espaillat, or in a more outlandish scenario, maybe Jose Serrano Jr..
Anyway, Safe D, Hispanic VRA
NY-16
95.4% Obama, 4.4% McCain
4.2% White, 36.1 % Black, 56 % Hispanic, 1.9 % Asian
Serrano: 68.4%, Rangel: 19.4%, Crowley: 12.3%, Bishop: 0%, Bishop: 0%
The estimated CVAP stats here are much less comforting for another favorite of mine, Congressman Serrano-- 50.2% Hispanic, 41.3% Black, 5% White-- but he's survived a similar district with ease for the last decade. He's in touch with his constituents, and I think that he will be fine in this district.
Safe D
NY-20
I know, in the correct order we should look at NY-17 now, but since NY-20 has been evaporated upstate and moved downstate I figured it would be better to look at this first. In retrospect I should probably have switched the numbers for NY-20 and NY-4 (Rochester).
53.1% Obama, 46% McCain
65.2% White, 2.5 % Black, 10.4 % Hispanic, 20.3 % Asian
Nadler: 40.7%, Grimm: 19.8%, Weiner: 19.5%, Clarke: 12.2%, Velázquez: 5.5%
This district is what happens when you don't concede a 50-50 district in Staten Island and don't gerrymander the hell out of the rest of the map. Its odd shape is necessitated by the fact that the Southern portion of the district doesn't have enough population, and it's bordered by VRA districts so there's no other way out.
I don't think Nadler runs here, he'd prefer the safe Northern half of his district.
So this would be a hell of an open seat race which will probably largely depend on anti-Obama turnout by Orthodox Jews. One thing that's notable is the very low turnout in this district.
The other thing that's notable is that Obama's toplines here might be close to useless. There's a precinct for instance, probably a Haredi precinct, that voted 76% for Gore (or rather, Lieberman) and 97% for McCain. While they're certainly going red pretty fast I don't believe these precincts will vote 95+% for the Republican in a Congressional race yet.
The percentages here and in NY-2 are pretty similar, but Obama beat McCain 152,000-132,000 in NY-2 and 99,000-85,500 here.
The neighboring Black VRA seat (NY-11) voted for Obama 252,500-11,000, so the norm is definitely closer to NY-2 than to NY-20.
Tilt D, Lean R later in the decade.
NY-17
Let's go upstate!
52.3% Obama, 46.9% McCain
69.7% White, 9.2 % Black, 14.3 % Hispanic, 5.2 % Asian
Hayworth: 37%, Engel: 32.9%, Lowey: 23.2%, Hinchey: 6.9%, Bishop: 0%
Probably an open seat, as I don't think anybody currently representing part of the district would run here. The bulk of the district in the State Senate is represented by Independent Democrat David Carlucci, who is just 30 years old and would of course be a wonderful candidate for Democrats.
Lean D with Carlucci, Toss-Up as an open seat.
NY-04 (Slaughter)
58.6% Obama, 40.1% McCain
76% White, 13.2 % Black, 6 % Hispanic, 3.3 % Asian Slaughter: 39.4%, Reed: 27.9%, Hochul: 19%, Buerkle: 13.8%
The 4th district was so thoroughly dismantled that I gave the number instead to the Rochester-based district. It is basically a compacted version of the Earmuff-distrct.
If the hit in Obama percentage and district number change don't scare Slaughter into retirement she should still be okay here. This area has reliably voted for her for 35 years now, I don't think Rochester would boot her.
Safe D with Slaughter, Likely to Safe D open.
NY-18
63.5% Obama, 35% McCain
75.3% White, 15.9 % Black, 4.3 % Hispanic, 2.8 % Asian
Higgins: 41.3%, Slaughter: 38.5%, Hochul: 20.2%
As we've already established that Slaughter gets the Rochester seat, Higgins will run here. It's much safer than his current seat.
Safe D
NY-19
54.4% Obama, 44.6% McCain
74.6% White, 6.7 % Black, 13.8 % Hispanic, 3.6 % Asian
Hayworth: 60.8%, Lowey: 25.1%, Gibson: 9.5%, Hinchey: 4.6%, Bishop: 0%
Nan Hayworth's seat becomes less friendly for the GOP, she would probably not have won here in 2010. John Hall and Nan Hayworth both live in the district, as does my favorite TV show character, Don Draper of "Mad Men".
Locally the district seems also a bit blueish-- in the State Senate district that makes up more than half of the district-- the GOPer won only 52-48 in 2010 in an open seat race, in another State Senate District that covers a substantial part of the district, the Dem incumbent won after a recount.
Tilt D with Hayworth against Hall, Lean R against another Democrat, Lean D when open.
NY-20 was already discussed.
NY-21
57.8% Obama, 40.3% McCain
83.3% White, 7.6 % Black, 3.6 % Hispanic, 3.5 % Asian
Tonko: 78.7%, Gibson: 21.3%
Tonko's 21th doesn't see many significant changes, except for one-- Tonko doesn't live in it anymore. But of course there's no residency requirement and politically it hasn't moved significantly enough to the right to endanger Tonko who won a district that's just 2 points more Democratic with 59.3% in 2010.
Safe D
NY-22
55.5% Obama, 42.9% McCain
83.2% White, 5.8 % Black, 7.3 % Hispanic, 2.1 % Asian
Hinchey: 70.9%, Gibson: 26%, Hanna: 3%, Hayworth: 0.1%
Hinchey's district moves a bit to the right, and Hinchey might not have won in 2010 under these lines. This reconfiguration would probably result in a more serious challenger to Hinchey, such as State Senator Tom Libous of Binghampton-- which would create an interesting dynamic of running an urban Republican from the Democratic stronghold against a rural Democrat from the Republican stronghold in the seat.
Chris Gibson also lives in this seat and could choose to run here. He would certainly be a strong challenger.
Safe D with Hinchey against a no-name challenger, Likely D with Hinchey against Libous, Lean D with Hinchey against Gibson, Likely D as an open seat with equally strong candidates.
NY-23
52.4% Obama, 45.9% McCain
91.8% White, 3 % Black, 2.5 % Hispanic, 0.9 % Asian
Owens: 57.9%, Gibson: 36.8%, Tonko: 5.3%
Speaking of Gibson, he could also choose to run here and would certainly make the election an instant toss-up. If he doesn't run, State Senator Betty Little, who had considered a run for NY-20 in 2009, would be a strong candidate as well.
Of course, Doug Hoffman is a wild card that must not be forgotten here.
Likely D with Owens against no-name R,
Lean D with Owens against Little
Toss-Up with Owens against Gibson,
Toss-Up as an open seat.
NY-24
47.7% Obama, 50.4% McCain
94.4% White, 1.5 % Black, 2.4 % Hispanic, 0.6 % Asian
Hanna: 47.2%, Owens: 26%, Buerkle: 14.5%, Tonko: 10.7%, Gibson: 1.6%
This curiously shaped district is safe for Hanna, especially as it drops Rome and Utica and with them also former Congressman Mike Arcuri.
Safe R
NY-25
55.8% Obama, 42.3% McCain
84.1% White, 7.8 % Black, 3.4 % Hispanic, 2.8 % Asian
Buerkle: 65.1%, Hanna: 26%, Owens: 8.9%
While Buerkle has to prefer this seat to being chopped up, she won't like it either. Her district stays largely the same as in 2000-- she drops Republican parts in Wayne and North Cayuga County and picks up equally Republican parts-- or even somewhat more Republican parts-- in Madison County, Rome and Utica.
But this looks a lot more appealing, doesn't it?
The Democratic primary here could be interesting, with both Dan Maffei and Mike Arcuri living here, as well as Vice President Pro Tempore of the State Senate, Independent Democrat David Valesky. Hey, I've inadvertently drawn tailor-made districts for most of the Independent Democrat caucus.
Valesky gets this seat, Carlucci the open Rockland-Orange seat, Savino has a good shot against Grimm and I suppose Klein can run in the multi-candidate crash primary in the Lowey-Ackerman-McCarthy seat with a chance that's just as good as everybody else's.
Anyway, I think I'd call this a Toss-Up, maybe with a small D lean against Valesky and Maffei and a small R lean against Arcuri, and Lean R against any other Democrat.
NY-26
44.6% Obama, 53.8% McCain
93.1% White, 2.7 % Black, 2 % Hispanic, 1.1 % Asian
Hochul: 54.5%, Reed: 18%, Higgins: 13.4%, Hanna: 7.2%, Slaughter: 6.9%
Kathy Hochul still doesn't live in the district, but hey, she comes a lot closer than she did before.
She will have trouble holding this seat though. It becomes even more Republican, and all of it is represented by GOPers in the State Senate, with the youngest of those being Patrick Gallivan and the highest-ranking being George Maziarz.
Likely R with Hochul against one of the State Senators, Lean R with Hochul against Corwin or a minor Republican candidate.
NY-27
49.4% Obama, 49% McCain
91.3% White, 2.4 % Black, 2.5 % Hispanic, 2 % Asian
Reed: 47.1%, Higgins: 33.1%, Hinchey: 11.8%, Hanna: 8%, Bishop: 0%
Reed's district becomes a bit more Democratic, but should still be good enough for him to hold.
There is no Democratic bench here-- the Dem base is Cornell in Ithaca, but college students don't make good Congressional candidates, and they wouldn't have much of an appeal to the rural voters in the rest of the district anyway.