Democrats in California have long coveted a 2/3rds majority in the state legislature. California has a fairly unusual system where a 2/3rds majority vote is required to raise taxes or fees (until recently, a 2/3rds majority was even required to simply pass a budget, but thankfully voters did away with that idiotic rule in 2010). Under the current gerrymandered map, capturing 2/3rds of the seats in the legislature was almost impossible, meaning that the Republicans could effectively block any tax increases, making dealing with the budget a major headache. But with the new maps released by California's nonpartisan redistricting commission, it looks like Democrats finally have a chance of picking up their 2/3rds majority.
In this post, I'll take a look at the different senate seats in the commission's map (I'll do the assembly map in a later post). There are 40 seats in the state senate, meaning that Democrats need 26 27 to get a 2/3rds majority. To save space, I'm not going to analyze any seats that are safe for either party. Partisan data comes from this website.
SD-01 (Inland NorCal):
Rating: Safe R
SD-02 (North Coast, Sonoma, Marin):
Rating: Safe D
SD-03 (Napa, Solano, Yolo):
Rating: Safe D
SD-04 (Yuba City, Chico):
Rating: Safe R
SD-05 (San Joaquin County, Northern Modesto):
Party Registration: 43% D, 38% R, 15% DTS
53% Obama/44% McCain
47% Brown/46% Whitman
The first competitive district. The Republican incumbent in the current 14th district, Tom Berryhill, lives here, but he's represented almost none of this area before. It's also much more Democratic than his old district. For those reasons, he may chose to run in the open 8th district, which is solidly Republican and contains more of his old territory. It will be highly competitive, regardless.
Rating: Tossup
SD-06 (Sacremento):
Rating: Safe D
SD-07 (Inland Contra Costa and Alameda Counties):
Rating: Safe D
SD-08 (Rancho Cordova, Eastern Stanislaus, Calaveras, Toulumne, Mariposa, Madera, Inyo, Mono):
Rating: Safe R
SD-09 (Richmond, Berkeley, Oakland, San Leandro):
Rating: Safe D
SD-10 (Hayward, Fremont, Milipitas, Santa Clara):
Rating: Safe D
SD-11 (San Francisco, Daly City):
Rating: Safe D
SD-12 (Merced, San Benito, Salinas, Madera):
Party Registration: 50% D, 32% R, 15% DTS
57% Obama/40% McCain
50% Brown/43% Whitman
Despite the Democratic lean of this area, this district has been represented by Republicans (including now-congressman Jeff Denham) since the last redistricting. Hispanics actually outnumber whites 59-30 among the 18+ population, but because of low citizenship and voter turnout rates among Hispanics the district is very competitive. The current incumbent Republican, Anthony Cannella, won his first term by a 3-point margin in 2010, and the district has stayed about the same partisan-wise.
Rating: Tossup with Cannella, Lean D later/if open
SD-13 (San Mateo, Silicon Valley):
Rating: Safe D
SD-14 (Bakersfield, Kings, Fresno):
Party Registration: 48% D, 34% R, 14% DTS
55% Obama/42% McCain
51% Brown/40% Whitman
This is another district that shouldn't be competitive, but is, because of low Hispanic citizenship and turnout rates. Democrats are in a better position here than in the 12th district, however. The current Democratic incumbent, Michael Rubio, won overwhelmingly in 2010 in a district very similar to this one. He should be heavily favored to win reelection.
Rating: Likely D
SD-15 (San Jose):
Rating: Safe D
SD-16 (Barstow, Bakersfield, Tulare)
Rating: Safe R
SD-17 (Santa Cruz, Monterey, San Luis Obispo)
Party Registration: 45% D, 29% R, 19% DTS
64% Obama/33% McCain
56% Brown/38% Whitman
This district has always been Democratic-leaning, but for the past decade it has been held by moderate Republicans, including former Lt. Governor Abel Maldonado. The current GOP incumbent, Sam Blakeslee, won narrowly in 2010. However, this district has gotten about four points more Democratic since then. Blakeslee still has a good chance of winning this, but I think a Democrat should be favored.
Rating: Lean D with Blakeslee, Likely/Safe D later/if open
SD-18 (San Fernando Valley)
Rating: Safe D
SD-19 (Santa Barbara, Ventura)
Party Registration: 44% D, 32% R, 19% DTS
60% Obama/37% McCain
49% Brown/43% Whitman
This seat is open, and has a heavy Dem lean. It's not a slam dunk for Dems, but barring some unusual circumstances it should go blue.
Rating: Likely D
SD-20 (Pomona, Ontario, Fontana, Rialto)
Rating: Safe D
SD-21 (Santa Clarita, Palmdale, Lancaster, Victorville, Hesperia)
Rating: Safe R
SD-22 (San Gabriel Valley)
Rating: Safe D
SD-23 (Hemet, San Jacinto, Yucaipa, Eastern San Bernardino)
Rating: Safe R
SD-24 (Downtown LA, East LA)
Rating: Safe D
SD-25 (Burbank, Glendale, Pasadena, San Gabriel Valley)
Party Registration: 42% D, 33% R, 21% DTS
52% Obama/43% McCain*
53% Brown/41% Whitman
I'm not sure if the Obama/McCain numbers given here are correct. It seems like they should be higher, especially when you look at the Brown/Whitman numbers (I can't find any areas where Brown actually did better than Obama in this region). IIRC, there were similar problems with the congressional district in this area. I think this should be safely Dem, but given the uncertainty with the numbers here I'm not 100% sure.
Rating: Likely D
SD-26 (Palos Verdes, South Bay, Santa Monica, Beverly Hills, West Hollywood)
Rating: Safe D
SD-27 (Simi Valley, Thousand Oaks, Malibu, Western San Fernando Valley)
Party Registration: 41% D, 35% R, 20% DTS
50% Obama/47% McCain
46% Brown/47% Whitman
Two incumbent senators, Republican Tony Strickland and Democrat Fran Pavley, get thrown together in this highly competitive district. The district is about evenly balanced between Democrats and Republicans and between Strickland's and Pavley's old districts, so it should be one of the closest races in the state.
Rating: Tossup
SD-28 (Coachella Valley, Temecula)
Rating: Safe R
SD-29 (Diamond Bar, Fullerton, Chino Hills, Yorba Linda, Cypress)
Rating: Safe R
SD-30 (Culver City, South Central LA)
Rating: Safe D
SD-31 (Riverside, Corona, Moreno Valley)
Party Registration: 40% D, 37% R, 18% DTS
55% Obama/41% McCain
48% Brown/43% Whitman
This is a new, open, plurality-Hispanic seat centered on Riverside. It leans Democratic, but is still competitive. This area is rapidly diversifying and trending Dem, so by the end of the decade Democrats should be able to hold this seat easily.
Rating: Lean D
SD-32 (Pico Rivera, Whittier, Norwalk)
Rating: Safe D
SD-33 (Long Beach, Paramount, Huntington Park)
Rating: Safe D
SD-34 (Santa Ana, Southern Anaheim, Garden Grove, Westminster, Seal Beach)
Party Registration: 38% D, 38% R, 20% DTS
50% Obama/47% McCain
43% Brown/48% Whitman
This is where I most strongly disagree with the commission's choice. They could have created a Santa Ana/Anaheim/Garden Grove Hispanic-majority seat, which in my opinion is a clear community of interest, but instead they chose to divide up those areas among the other Orange County districts. The result is this district. The Republican incumbent in the current 35th district, Tom Harman, and the Democratic incumbent in the current 34th district, Lou Correa, both live here. I'm going to give Harman the edge, because this is historically Republican territory that tends to vote more for Republicans at the state level than at the federal level, but it will probably be close.
Rating: Lean R
SD-35 (Inglewood, Hawthorne, Compton, Carson)
Rating: Safe D
SD-36 (Dana Point, San Clemente, Oceanside, Carlsbad, Encinitas)
Rating: Safe R
SD-37 (Orange, Irvine, Newport Beach, Huntington Beach)
Rating: Safe R
SD-38 (Inland San Diego County)
Rating: Safe R
SD-39 (San Diego, La Jolla)
Rating: Safe D
SD-40 (Chula Vista, Imperial County)
Rating: Safe D
Safe D: 20
Likely D: 3
Lean D: 2
Tossup: 3
Lean R: 1
Likely R: 0
Safe R: 11
With these rankings, the chances of Democrats taking a 2/3rds majority in the senate look good. If Democrats hold down all Likely/Lean D seats, they only need to win one of the three tossups to get to 2/3rds. It's no slam dunk, but I would say the chances are better than 50/50 that Democrats can finally cross the 2/3rds mark in the senate. EDIT:Actually, hilltopper points out that Democrats would need two of the three tossups to get to 2/3rds. That changes things a little bit. It's probably about a 50/50 chance that we pick up the state senate, but that's still much better than the current odds.