xpost from RRH--
Imagine there is no compromise on the Congressional, State Senate and Assembly maps in New York and the map is drawn by a Court. I already looked at what the Congressional map would look like--- a lot more swing districts with a GOP delegation that might be reduced to three members in a 2008-like wave or grow to as much as 13 in a 2010-style GOP wave.
This looks at what such a map--- maximizing VRA districts as much as possible, and otherwise drawn without looking at partisanship or incumbents--- might do to the State Senate.
BTW, it's interesting that the State Senate map by the GOP hinges completely on incumbents being able to win D+2-3 districts Upstate. If we ever make the inroads there on the State Senate level that we had on the Congressional map in 2006-2008, the GOP majority is finished no matter how ugly the lines they draw.
Result: There is an unlikely path to a GOP majority even with a court-drawn map, but it hinges on complete success in a series of unfriendly must-win districts. I highlight those in the analysis-- they have to win all but one of those.
Forgive me if my analysis isn't as detailed as in th Congressional map-- 62 districts are just too much to really describe in detail.
The numbering of the districts is also pretty random this time around, but since I-- as always-- include population redistribution statistics-- you should still be able to tell which old districts the new ones roughly correspond to.
SD-01
38.8% Obama, 60.5% McCain
78.9% White, 2.3 % Black, 9.8 % Hispanic, 7.9 % Asian
Andrew Lanza (R): 90.9%, Diane Savino (D): 9.1%
Absolutely safe for State Senator Lanza.
SD-02
61% Obama, 38.1% McCain
53.9% White, 11.5 % Black, 19.2 % Hispanic, 13.5 % Asian
Diane Savino (D): 48.2%, Martin Golden (R): 40.2%, Andrew Lanza (R): 11.7%
I think Savino should be fine here. Granted, her current district is 67-32 Obama, but she was unopposed in 2010 and got 78% in 2008. That shows she's uncontroversial enough to win this too.
Safe D
SD-03
38.5% Obama, 60.7% McCain
65.8% White, 1.5 % Black, 9.3 % Hispanic, 21.9 % Asian
Carl Kruger (D): 52.4%, Martin Golden (R): 34.8%, Diane Savino (D): 8%, Kevin Parker (D): 4.6%, John Sampson (D): 0.3%
This is an interesting seat and I honestly don't know what's going to happen here. The Republicans here are of course orthodox Jews, but the McCain-Obama toplines aren't very useful here as Sen. Kruger held down a 54-44 McCain seat with ease (70-30) in 2010. But against a Republican incumbent State Senator? Then again Kruger is Jewish, and Golden is not (he's Irish).
I don't know.
I'm refraining from a rating here.
Must-Win
SD-04
63.7% Obama, 35.4% McCain
39.5% White, 2.9 % Black, 26.8 % Hispanic, 29.2 % Asian
Diane Savino (D): 30.8%, Kevin Parker (D): 21.7%, Martin Golden (R): 15.1%, Eric Adams (D): 14.1%, Velmanette Montgomery (D): 10.1%, Dan Squadron (D): 8.2%
This would be a new, open, seat favoring a Democrat.. probably a white Democrat. Don't let the racial demographics you see in DRA fool you, CVAP is significantly different.
Just consider this seat:
Total Population: 40% White, 27% Hispanic, 28% Asian
18+: 40% White, 27% Hispanic, 29% Asian
Estimated CVAP 18+: 48% White, 24% Hispanic, 24% Asian.
Whatever the race of the primary winner is, Safe D.
SD-05
79.5% Obama, 20% McCain
23.2% White, 49.1 % Black, 20.9 % Hispanic, 4.4 % Asian
Kemp Hannon (R): 29%, Malcolm Smith (D): 18.1%, Jack Martins (R): 17.5%, Dean Skelos (R): 16.3%, Charles Fuschillo (R): 12%, Shirley Huntley (D): 7.1%
Sorry to bore you with this CVAP stuff, but here it becomes really relevant. Due to the low citizenship rates of Hispanics, the estimated CVAP 18+ of this seat is 51% Black, 26% White, 17% Hispanic, thus this is a VRA seat.
Safe D for whoever wins the D primary here. It speaks to the quality of the R gerrymander here that currently just 25% of this territory is represented by a Democrat.
SD-06
85.3% Obama, 13.6% McCain
53.9% White, 4.7 % Black, 15.1 % Hispanic, 24.1 % Asian
Dan Squadron (D): 62.3%, Thomas Duane (D): 37.7%
Safe for I assume Squadron, or Duane if he wants to run against Squadron here. The discrepancy here isn't as huge among Obama voters (around 55-45)-- Squadron's part of the district is the one with more of the 13.6% McCain voters. But I assume Duane would take the 7th.
Safe D
SD-07
86.5% Obama, 12.6% McCain
64.6% White, 7.5 % Black, 15.2 % Hispanic, 10.6 % Asian
Thomas Duane (D): 53.8%, Bill Perkins (D): 24.7%, Adriano Espaillat (D): 19.8%, Liz Krueger (D): 1.7%
Safe D for Duane.
SD-08
77.1% Obama, 22% McCain
76.7% White, 2.8 % Black, 6.7 % Hispanic, 12 % Asian
Liz Krueger (D): 82.6%, Thomas Duane (D): 16.7%, José M. Serrano (D): 0.7%
Liz Krueger's seat doesn't substantially change form.
Safe D
SD-09
77.3% Obama, 22.3% McCain
29.3% White, 50.4 % Black, 14.1 % Hispanic, 3.4 % Asian
Malcolm Smith (D): 50.3%, Shirley Huntley (D): 28%, Dean Skelos (R): 10.9%, Joseph Addabbo, Jr. (D): 6.9%, John Sampson (D): 4%, Kemp Hannon (R): 0%
Black VRA, should go to Malcolm Smith.
Safe D
SD-10
86.9% Obama, 12.8% McCain
10.8% White, 46.2 % Black, 19.7 % Hispanic, 14.2 % Asian
Shirley Huntley (D): 28.3%, John Sampson (D): 23.9%, Tony Avella (D): 14.9%, Malcolm Smith (D): 13.4%, Joseph Addabbo, Jr. (D): 12.6%, Jack Martins (R): 4.3%, Martin Malave Dilan (D): 2.6%
Here's where CVAP really kicks in-- because of the low white population percentage, even 46% Black VAP is enough for a majority-black CVAP district.
Since John Sampson has a better seat to run in, this is likely where Shirley Huntley would end up. Or an ambitious City Councilmember.
Safe D
SD-11
78.2% Obama, 21.4% McCain
34.1% White, 49.9 % Black, 9.4 % Hispanic, 4.8 % Asian
Carl Kruger (D): 33.4%, John Sampson (D): 30.7%, Kevin Parker (D): 22%, Diane Savino (D): 9.5%, Martin Golden (R): 4.4%
Definitely not where Carl Kruger would run. This district should be held by an African-American Democrat-- like John Sampson.
SD-12
77.8% Obama, 21.7% McCain
30.9% White, 50.2 % Black, 11 % Hispanic, 5.8 % Asian
Kevin Parker (D): 44.7%, Eric Adams (D): 27.7%, Carl Kruger (D): 15%, Martin Golden (R): 8.3%, John Sampson (D): 4.3%
This district, meanwhile, should go to Kevin Parker. Like all the previous districts, Black VRA.
Safe D
SD-13
94.6% Obama, 4.8% McCain
31.6% White, 50 % Black, 12.1 % Hispanic, 3.8 % Asian
Eric Adams (D): 54.7%, Velmanette Montgomery (D): 27.8%, John Sampson (D): 10.9%, Dan Squadron (D): 4.2%, Kevin Parker (D): 2.4%
Amazing how a district that's 32% White can give McCain less than 5% of the vote.
This should be safe for Eric Adams.
This is at 94.6% Obama the third-most Democratic district in the State Senate.
Safe D, Black VRA
SD-14
96.1% Obama, 3.4% McCain
21.2% White, 56 % Black, 16.8 % Hispanic, 3.7 % Asian
Velmanette Montgomery (D): 52.7%, John Sampson (D): 27.7%, Dan Squadron (D): 16.6%, Martin Malave Dilan (D): 2.9%
Velmanette Montgomoery gets the second-most Democratic seat on this map at 96.1% Obama and 56% Black.
Safe D, Black VRA
SD-15
91.2% Obama, 8.3% McCain
14.4% White, 20.3 % Black, 55.8 % Hispanic, 6.7 % Asian
Martin Malave Dilan (D): 70.1%, Velmanette Montgomery (D): 10.5%, Michael N. Gianaris (D): 9.9%, Joseph Addabbo, Jr. (D): 9.3%, Dan Squadron (D): 0.1%, John Sampson (D): 0.1%
Ah, our first Hispanic VRA seat. The 55.8% is of course VAP. I estimate that the CVAP is around 50.5%, but if it's lower because of some regional differences it could easily be brought up to 50%.
Safe D for Malave Dilan.
SD-16
74.8% Obama, 24.6% McCain
32.4% White, 18.3 % Black, 39.8 % Hispanic, 7.2 % Asian
Rubén Díaz (D): 43.5%, Jeffrey Klein (D): 43.4%, Suzi Oppenheimer (D): 9.1%, Ruth Hassell-Thompson (D): 4%
This seat is for once not a VRA seat-- it picks up the areas of the Bronx not fitting into the VRA seats and crosses the Westchester County border for population. Nowhere else to go, really.
While Díaz would probably have an advantage over Klein in the primary, I believe he'd probably prefer to run in a Hispanic VRA seat and leave this white plurality (CVAP) seat for Klein-- that Klein might still have a Hispanic primary challenger aside.
Safe D
SD-17
72.5% Obama, 26.5% McCain
55.4% White, 2.8 % Black, 26.9 % Hispanic, 13.1 % Asian
Martin Malave Dilan (D): 33.3%, Joseph Addabbo, Jr. (D): 25.8%, Michael N. Gianaris (D): 24.5%, Dan Squadron (D): 15.1%, Jose Peralta (D): 1.1%, Toby Ann Stavisky (D): 0.3%
Safe D, I don't know for who. There is no clear incumbent here, or even an incumbent who would want to run here.
SD-18
80.7% Obama, 18.7% McCain
9.7% White, 4.1 % Black, 59.2 % Hispanic, 25.2 % Asian
Jose Peralta (D): 94.8%, Toby Ann Stavisky (D): 3.9%, Michael N. Gianaris (D): 1.3%
Jose Peralta is the lucky guy who completely retains his old seat. I didn't even look at the old map once when I drew this, so it's probably just because this seat makes sense to draw.
Safe D, Hispanic VRA.
SD-19
64.2% Obama, 35% McCain
48.6% White, 5.2 % Black, 23.6 % Hispanic, 19 % Asian
Joseph Addabbo, Jr. (D): 42.7%, Toby Ann Stavisky (D): 27.7%, Shirley Huntley (D): 18.6%, Malcolm Smith (D): 11%
This seat could be more competitive for the GOP than the gazillion VRA seats before it, but nah, probably not. There are VRA seats less Democratic than this.
Joseph Addabbo should be good here.
Safe D
SD-20
80.5% Obama, 18.6% McCain
56% White, 7.3 % Black, 21 % Hispanic, 13.2 % Asian
Michael N. Gianaris (D): 59.7%, Liz Krueger (D): 19.8%, José M. Serrano (D): 18.6%, Bill Perkins (D): 2%, Toby Ann Stavisky (D): 0%
Another seat that doesn't deserve much of a description. Michael N. Gianaris should be safe here. One curiosity-- the 0% that Toby Ann Stavisky's old seat contributes to this one isn't actually a typo-- not that surprising, the demographic descriptions and such are automatically generated. Computers don't tend to make typos. The overlapping territory cast 8 votes for Obama in 2008 and 4 votes for McCain.
SD-21
I chose a different form of screenshot for this district to explain why it's so ugly-- the orange district north of it and the pink and yellow districts south of it are all VRA, thus the shape is really forced upon this district.
58.4% Obama, 40.8% McCain
45.6% White, 10.3 % Black, 16.4 % Hispanic, 21.9 % Asian
Jack Martins (R): 27%, Kemp Hannon (R): 19.9%, Tony Avella (D): 16.6%, Shirley Huntley (D): 16.6%, Malcolm Smith (D): 9.8%, Toby Ann Stavisky (D): 5.3%, Joseph Addabbo, Jr. (D): 2.5%, Charles Fuschillo (R): 2.2%
This district isn't that Democratic at around D+5-- but I don't think any of the GOP incumbents would want to run here. All of them currently represent 55-43 Obama districts, so this would be about 3 points worse for them, and as far as I can see they all have better districts to run in.
As an open seat I would call this Likely D.
Must-Win
Now that we have one third of the Senate mapped, the running tally is
17 Safe D
1 Likely D
1 Who the fuck knows (Brooklyn Jewish Community)
1 Safe R
Of course, this is the most Democratic part of NY.
NY-22
51.9% Obama, 47.3% McCain
76.2% White, 6.5 % Black, 12.8 % Hispanic, 3.4 % Asian
Dean Skelos (R): 70.6%, Charles Fuschillo (R): 29.4%
Skelos gets a seat that looks largely like his old one, including in terms of partisan composition.
He should be okay here.
Safe R
SD-23
46.4% Obama, 52.8% McCain
78.8% White, 4.2 % Black, 10.2 % Hispanic, 5.8 % Asian
Kemp Hannon (R): 43.5%, Charles Fuschillo (R): 34.6%, Jack Martins (R): 11.3%, Carl Marcellino (R): 10.7%
Our first bona-fide member-on-member primary! Neither Kemp Hannon nor Charles Fuschillo has a better option to run in. Hannon's old seat contributes 36272 McCain voters to this seat, Fuschillo's 33499. I don't know who Martins' and Marcellino's constituents would favor.
It doesn't really matter much, this seat is Safe R.
SD-24
54.2% Obama, 44.9% McCain
68.7% White, 12 % Black, 14.9 % Hispanic, 2.9 % Asian
Owen H. Johnson (R): 74.5%, Charles Fuschillo (R): 19.4%, Lee Zeldin (R): 4.9%, Carl Marcellino (R): 0.8%, John J. Flanagan (R): 0.3%
Johnson's seat moves two points to the left. He's popular enough to be able to take the hit.
However, after the seat becomes open (he's 82) it's probably Lean to Likely R, depending on when that's the case (the area trends R).
SD-25
54.3% Obama, 44.7% McCain
61.8% White, 7.2 % Black, 26.3 % Hispanic, 3.4 % Asian
Lee Zeldin (R): 66.7%, Owen H. Johnson (R): 23.6%, John J. Flanagan (R): 9.7%
Lee Zeldin should be fine for the decade here. Lean R if he decides to retire at some point to run against Israel or something. Which, if both this map and the Congressional map are drawn by courts, is a real possibility.
Safe R with Zeldin
SD-26
53.2% Obama, 45.8% McCain
77.5% White, 5.2 % Black, 14.2 % Hispanic, 1.6 % Asian
Kenneth LaValle (R): 69.9%, Lee Zeldin (R): 30.1%
Sen. LaValle should be okay in his district as well.
Lean R as an open seat, Safe R with LaValle.
SD-27
51% Obama, 48% McCain
81.2% White, 4 % Black, 8.7 % Hispanic, 5 % Asian John J. Flanagan (R): 58.6%, Kenneth LaValle (R): 37.8%, Lee Zeldin (R): 3.6%
Safe R for Flanagan
SD-28
51.5% Obama, 47.7% McCain 81.4% White, 2.9 % Black, 8.1 % Hispanic, 6.6 % Asian
Carl Marcellino (R): 62.2%, John J. Flanagan (R): 32.1%, Kemp Hannon (R): 5.7%
Safe R for Marcellino
SD-29
55.6% Obama, 43.6% McCain
68.6% White, 2.3 % Black, 10.1 % Hispanic, 17.7 % Asian
Jack Martins (R): 38.4%, Tony Avella (D): 36.3%, Carl Marcellino (R): 18.1%, Toby Ann Stavisky (D): 7.3%
The first general election with two incumbents, assuming nobody retires! Tony Avella beat a GOP incumbent in 2010 by six points in a 62-36 Obama seat. Jack Martins beat a Democratic incumbent in a 56-44 Obama seat like this one by just a few votes.
I'm not actually sure which of these I find more impressive.
I think I'm going to call this a Toss-Up.
Must-Win
SD-30
Yes, I know this isn't pretty, but somewhere you HAVE to cross the bay. You can't just follow the
shore or you mess with the VRA districts.
At least this district is clearly a district situated north of the bay--90% of its residents live north of it.
61.2% Obama, 37.9% McCain
61.3% White, 8.7 % Black, 23.1 % Hispanic, 5.6 % Asian
Suzi Oppenheimer (D): 65%, Andrea Stewart-Cousins (D): 25.3%, Carl Marcellino (R): 9.7%
Oppenheimer currently occupies a 64.7% Obama seat and got just 62.2% in it in 2008 and then just barely managed to hang on in 2010, so I wouldn't call her completely safe here. Still, it's a D+8. This is a seat R's would have to win on route to a Senate majority.
Likely D
SD-31
I don't like this seat too much as a CoI, but keeping it east of the Hudson would have done weird things to the 30th.
56.7% Obama, 42.6% McCain
67.1% White, 10 % Black, 13.3 % Hispanic, 8.2 % Asian
Andrea Stewart-Cousins (D): 43.9%, David Carlucci (D): 40.5%, Jeffrey Klein (D): 9.3%, Suzi Oppenheimer (D): 6.3%
Carlucci could easily hold this seat, I think, but he probably wouldn't run here. Andrea Stewart-Cousins could run here, and she will probably try to do so, but I have to say I like the chances of the GOP in the General Election if she does. She got 55% in a 64% Obama seat in 2010, so she would likely have lost under these lines. 2012 will certainly not be 2010, but still, she won't hold this down comfortably.
Lean D
Must-Win
SD-32
This district takes us back to NYC-- that will happen from time to time because I always draw VRA districts with districts with bright default colors so that they are clearly visible in the population view in DRA.
68% Obama, 31.3% McCain
23% White, 5.5 % Black, 15.2 % Hispanic, 54.2 % Asian
Toby Ann Stavisky (D): 56.2%, Tony Avella (D): 30.3%, Jose Peralta (D): 6.9%, Joseph Addabbo, Jr. (D): 3.5%, Malcolm Smith (D): 2%, Jack Martins (R): 1%
While Mrs. Stavisky represents the greatest part of this district, it is designed for an Asian Democrat. While it may not technically be a VRA seat (The Asian CVAP is most likely below 50%), it's still a very, very strong plurality.
Safe D anyway
SD-33
55% Obama, 44.2% McCain
69.6% White, 8.1 % Black, 15.8 % Hispanic, 5.2 % Asian
David Carlucci (D): 58.7%, Greg Ball (R): 36.9%, Suzi Oppenheimer (D): 4.3%
Back to where we were before. Carlucci picked up an R+1 in an open seat situation in 2010 by 6 points, so he should be absolutely fine here.
Likely D with Carlucci, Toss-Up as an open seat.
SD-34
49.6% Obama, 49.3% McCain
81.5% White, 4.8 % Black, 9.4 % Hispanic, 3.2 % Asian
Greg Ball (R): 58%, Stephen Saland (R): 36.4%, Suzi Oppenheimer (D): 4.6%, Andrea Stewart-Cousins (D): 1.1%
Safe R for Ball.
SD-35
51.8% Obama, 47.1% McCain
70.1% White, 9.2 % Black, 16.6 % Hispanic, 2.4 % Asian
Bill Larkin (R): 67.8%, John Bonacic (R): 20.8%, David Carlucci (D): 11.4%
Safe R for Larkin. Should rapidly trend both R and unpredictable due to the growth of the Hasidic community Kiryas Joel (90%+ McCain, although they can swing D in local races).
SD-36
59.7% Obama, 38.8% McCain
77.8% White, 8.7 % Black, 9.4 % Hispanic, 2.3 % Asian
Bill Larkin (R): 39.2%, John Bonacic (R): 38.2%, Stephen Saland (R): 22.7%
John Bonacic would probably be the one who has to run here. It's a pretty Democratic district, but Bonacic holds down a 56% Obama district with ease right now, so I'm not sure this would do him in. He could also primary Seward in the 41st, in which case this would be Likely D
Lean R with Bonacic, Likely D as an open seat.
Must-Win
SD-37
51.7% Obama, 46.6% McCain
91.1% White, 3 % Black, 3.4 % Hispanic, 1.2 % Asian
Stephen Saland (R): 42.1%, Roy McDonald (R): 22.8%, James Seward (R): 15.7%, Neil Breslin (D): 12.7%, Greg Ball (R): 6.7%
Safe R. Roy McDonald's seat has been dismantled, and I don't think after his yes-vote on gay marriage he could take on any GOP incumbent in the primary. I'd be shocked if that happened.
SD-38
65% Obama, 33.2% McCain
76.8% White, 12 % Black, 4.6 % Hispanic, 4.9 % Asian
Neil Breslin (D): 75.7%, Roy McDonald (R): 24.3%
Safe D for Breslin
SD-39
50.7% Obama, 47.5% McCain
94.8% White, 1.7 % Black, 1.8 % Hispanic, 0.7 % Asian
Betty Little (R): 53.7%, Hugh Farley (R): 27.5%, Roy McDonald (R): 18.8%
Safe R for Little.
SD-40
53% Obama, 45.1% McCain
86.5% White, 4.9 % Black, 3.3 % Hispanic, 2.7 % Asian
Hugh Farley (R): 54.4%, Roy McDonald (R): 36.8%, Neil Breslin (D): 8.8%
Farley should be able to easily hold this seat.
Safe R with Farley, Lean R as an open seat.
SD-41
48.2% Obama, 50% McCain
89.2% White, 3 % Black, 5.7 % Hispanic, 0.9 % Asian
James Seward (R): 40.4%, John Bonacic (R): 39%, Hugh Farley (R): 20.6%
If Bonacic doesn't want to take his chances in a 59% Obama seat he could also run against Seward in the primary here, which would be as close to a toss-up as possible, I think.
Safe R
SD-42
55.7% Obama, 42.7% McCain
91% White, 3.5 % Black, 2.3 % Hispanic, 0.8 % Asian
Betty Little (R): 43.6%, Joseph Griffo (R): 26.7%, Patty Ritchie (R): 19.4%, James Seward (R): 10.3%
This would be an open seat that's highly competitive. Although all of its territory is currenty occupied by R representatives, this seat could elect a Democrat.
Toss-Up, maybe tilt R.
SD-43
Let's beam back to a VRA seat in Northern NYC.
86.7% Obama, 12.9% McCain
18.6% White, 54.7 % Black, 21.5 % Hispanic, 2.5 % Asian
Ruth Hassell-Thompson (D): 65.8%, Jeffrey Klein (D): 19.2%, Suzi Oppenheimer (D): 15%
Safe D for Mrs. Hassell-Thompson.
SD-44
Back to Upstate NY.
46.6% Obama, 51.6% McCain
92.1% White, 2.8 % Black, 2.8 % Hispanic, 1 % Asian
Patty Ritchie (R): 75%, Joseph Griffo (R): 18.9%, David Valesky (D): 6.2%
Safe R for Patty Ritchie
By now we have around 17 seats that are winnable for the GOP, with a few Lean D's and Likely D's thrown in.
SD-45
85.1% Obama, 14.5% McCain
16% White, 19.8 % Black, 57.4 % Hispanic, 5 % Asian
Gustavo Rivera (D): 82.2%, Jeffrey Klein (D): 14.3%, Andrea Stewart-Cousins (D): 3.1%, Ruth Hassell-Thompson (D): 0.4%
Safe D Hispanic VRA seat for Gustavo Rivera.
SD-46
63.7% Obama, 34.5% McCain
76.7% White, 12.8 % Black, 4.2 % Hispanic, 3.8 % Asian
John DeFrancisco (R): 67.7%, David Valesky (D): 32.3%
DeFrancisco's current seat is just 55-43 Obama, but he wins it easily. Valesky's seat is 59-40 Obama, but he held on to it by just six points in 2010. I wouldn't count DeFrancisco out here, but it's still a D+10-11 seat.
Lean D.
Must-Win
SD-47
50.1% Obama, 48.1% McCain
89.2% White, 4.2 % Black, 2.9 % Hispanic, 2.4 % Asian
Joseph Griffo (R): 48.1%, David Valesky (D): 46.1%, John DeFrancisco (R): 5.8%
Safe R for Griffo.
SD-48
50.6% Obama, 47.6% McCain
91% White, 2.7 % Black, 2.2 % Hispanic, 2.6 % Asian
Thomas W. Libous (R): 92.7%, James Seward (R): 3.6%, Tom O'Mara (R): 2.2%, John Bonacic (R): 1.5%
This district is pretty much exactly the same as the current 52nd district, just picking up some territory to get up to equality.
SD-49
44.7% Obama, 53.5% McCain
93.4% White, 1.6 % Black, 2.7 % Hispanic, 0.6 % Asian
Catharine Young (R): 84.6%, Tom O'Mara (R): 15.4%
Safe R for Catharine Young
SD-50
55.6% Obama, 42.9% McCain
87.9% White, 3.9 % Black, 2.6 % Hispanic, 3.9 % Asian
Tom O'Mara (R): 68.7%, James Seward (R): 24.4%, Michael Nozzolio (R): 6.8%
O'Mara doesn't cruise as easily in his district as most Upstate Republicans do, scoring just around 60% in both 2008 and 2010 in 51-47 district. Here he should still be okay, but not as safe as most Republicans in a similar district.
Likely R
SD-51
76.9% Obama, 21.7% McCain
54.1% White, 33.2 % Black, 7.2 % Hispanic, 3.1 % Asian
Mark Grisanti (R): 74.3%, Timothy M. Kennedy (D): 19.4%, Michael Ranzenhofer (R): 6.3%
Mark Grisanti should never have happened and I don't think he will be reelected here.
Safe D
SD-52
45.7% Obama, 52.7% McCain
93.7% White, 2.2 % Black, 1.9 % Hispanic, 0.7 % Asian
Patrick Gallivan (R): 68.8%, Timothy M. Kennedy (D): 18.4%, Catharine Young (R): 7.5%, Tom O'Mara (R): 3.4%, Michael Nozzolio (R): 1.9%
Safe R for Gallivan
SD-53
53% Obama, 45.4% McCain
91.5% White, 2.7 % Black, 2 % Hispanic, 2.8 % Asian
Timothy M. Kennedy (D): 53.3%, Michael Ranzenhofer (R): 33.3%, Patrick Gallivan (R): 13.4%
Kennedy won with 43% of the vote in 2010 in his old district, which is significantly more liberal than this one, and his predecessor won by just six points in 2008 in that district. In an EVEN seat paired up with a GOP incumbent I would say this favors the Republican.
Lean R
Must-Win
SD-54
50.4% Obama, 47.9% McCain
92% White, 3 % Black, 1.7 % Hispanic, 1.9 % Asian George D. Maziarz (R): 53.3%, Michael Ranzenhofer (R): 35.2%, Mark Grisanti (R): 11.5%
Maziarz is safe here.
SD-55
44% Obama, 54.5% McCain
90.5% White, 3.8 % Black, 2.4 % Hispanic, 2 % Asian
James Alesi (R): 31.1%, George D. Maziarz (R): 30.6%, Michael Ranzenhofer (R): 22.6%, Patrick Gallivan (R): 10.7%, Joseph Robach (R): 5%
Safe R for Alesi or whomever.
SD-56
64.1% Obama, 34.7% McCain
64% White, 22.2 % Black, 9 % Hispanic, 2.9 % Asian Joseph Robach (R): 68.8%, James Alesi (R): 18%, George D. Maziarz (R): 13.2%
Robach represents a district that is even a point more Democratic right now and survived 2008 by a 5-point margin. I wouldn't call him "safe" here, but he isn't DoA either.
Lean to Likely R.
Must-Win
SD-57
56.9% Obama, 41.8% McCain
85% White, 6.6 % Black, 3.9 % Hispanic, 3.3 % Asian
James Alesi (R): 50.5%, Michael Nozzolio (R): 27.2%, Joseph Robach (R): 20.8%, Patrick Gallivan (R): 1.5%
Lean D as an open seat... probably also at least a Toss-Up if not Lean D with Alesi, who survived 2010 by just 6 points in a seat that's almost two points more Republican, after winning with 60% in 2008. Not a good trend.
Must-Win
SD-58
49.9% Obama, 48.3% McCain
92.9% White, 2.6 % Black, 2.5 % Hispanic, 0.6 % Asian
Michael Nozzolio (R): 62.5%, John DeFrancisco (R): 22.1%, David Valesky (D): 10.6%, Tom O'Mara (R): 4.8%
Safe R for Nozzolio
SD-59
Back to NYC for the last four districts-- all VRA.
85.5% Obama, 13.7% McCain
25.3% White, 13.3 % Black, 56.7 % Hispanic, 3.3 % Asian
Adriano Espaillat (D): 57.5%, Andrea Stewart-Cousins (D): 26.9%, Gustavo Rivera (D): 7.3%, Jeffrey Klein (D): 4.6%, José M. Serrano (D): 3.8%
Safe D, Hispanic VRA for Adriano Espaillat.
SD-60
97.2% Obama, 2.5% McCain
6.6% White, 51 % Black, 38.3 % Hispanic, 2 % Asian Bill Perkins (D): 52.7%, Ruth Hassell-Thompson (D): 27.9%, José M. Serrano (D): 10.6%, Rubén Díaz (D): 8.9%, Liz Krueger (D): 0%
Black VRA for Bill Perkins, Safe D. Most Democratic seat on the map. What do you have to do to lose such a seat in the General Election? Assassinate the President?
SD-61
93.9% Obama, 5.6% McCain
10% White, 24.2 % Black, 60.7 % Hispanic, 3.3 % Asian
José M. Serrano (D): 35%, Bill Perkins (D): 17.5%, Adriano Espaillat (D): 15.7%, Rubén Díaz (D): 12.6%, Gustavo Rivera (D): 11%, Ruth Hassell-Thompson (D): 7.5%, Jeffrey Klein (D): 0.7%
On the Congressional level it's not easily possible to divide the Hispanic and Black Bronx parts into VRA districts-- that's why you end up with seats like Rangel's. Here that works.
I think José Serrano would be the favorite here with his father's backing.
Safe D
SD-62
91.3% Obama, 8.3% McCain
8.5% White, 26.3 % Black, 59.4 % Hispanic, 4.2 % Asian
Rubén Díaz (D): 40.1%, José M. Serrano (D): 34.2%, Jeffrey Klein (D): 10.5%, Tony Avella (D): 5.5%, Bill Perkins (D): 5.5%, Michael N. Gianaris (D): 2.2%, Jose Peralta (D): 1.9%, Toby Ann Stavisky (D): 0.1%
And finally a Hispanic VRA seat for Rubén Díaz if he forgoes the primary with Klein further up in the diary.
At the end, here are some regional shots: