Public Policy Polling (PDF) (7/28-31, Nevada voters, 4/21-24 in parens):
Shelley Berkley (D): 43 (43)
Dean Heller (R): 46 (47)
Undecided: 12 (10)
Byron Georgiou (D): 31 (28)
Dean Heller (R): 48 (52)
Undecided: 20 (20)
(MoE: ±4.0%)
Though the toplines have barely budged, something else has changed since April—and changed a lot. Tom:
The first time we polled Nevada this year 46 percent of voters had a favorable opinion of Heller to 23 percent with a negative one. He had a greater than 2:1 favorability ratio with independents at 47/23 and had almost as many Democrats (22 percent) holding a positive opinion of him as an unfavorable one (31 percent).
That picture has changed significantly. Now Heller's approval rating (not the exact same thing as the favorability we were measuring earlier in the year but pretty similar) is just 38 percent with 35 percent of voters disapproving of him. Independents still like him but only narrowly, breaking down 41/32 in their support for him. His appeal to Democrats has pretty much evaporated—their opinions of him now break down 12/59.
As Tom acknowledges, it's not a perfect apples-to-apples comparison, but there has undoubtedly been an erosion in Heller's standing among independents since his elevation to the Senate. PPP's press release lays it out more fully—and also explains why this hasn't yet translated into bigger gains for Berkley:
Where Heller led 56-29 in the previous poll, he ekes out only a 44- 41 advantage now. But self-identified nonpartisan voters account for only about a fifth of the electorate, and that 24-point marginal shrinkage means less than five points in the overall standings, offset by slight adjustments in the two-party vote. Heller still has his party locked up more than Berkley hers, but her lower profile so far means more Democrats (14%) are undecided than Republicans (only 8%).
As Dean Debnam says in the release, Heller appears to be suffering for his new-found incumbency, rather than taking any advantage from it. Shades of 2010?
One final interesting note, from Tom's blog post, regarding Byron Georgiou's recent threats to run as an independent:
Only 27 respondents to our poll had a favorable opinion of Georgiou and if anything they're Republican leaning — they support Heller 61-39 over Berkley and go for Mitt Romney 46-39 over Barack Obama. It's too small a sample size to make much out of but it would seem to dispel the notion that Georgiou running third party would be particularly bad news for Berkley.
It's too bad Georgiou shot his mouth off after PPP went into the field, but I'd be really curious to see if this holds up in a general election poll. I'm skeptical, but then again, we just saw an oddball lefty-libertarian perennial candidate pull nine points from the Republican in a KY-Gov poll, so who knows?