Pennsylvania tightening, according to Q poll
A myriad of pollsters have confirmed that the debt ceiling negotiations in Washington have exacted a political toll on the president. President Obama's numbers took a precipitous dip in Gallup tracking, though they have rebounded a bit.
In trial heats, however, that drop has been less pronounced. Tuesday's release of a new poll in Pennsylvania by Quinnipiac, however, is the clearest sign yet that the protracted standoff between the president and Congressional Republicans has eroded support for his reelection.
Quinnipiac University (7/25-7/31. Registered Voters. June results in parentheses)
Mitt Romney (R): 44 (40)
Barack Obama (D): 42 (47)
Barack Obama (D): 45 (49)
Rick Santorum (R): 43 (38)
Barack Obama (D): 45 (--)
Rick Perry (R): 39 (--)
Barack Obama (D): 47 (--)
Michele Bachmann (R): 39 (--)
President Obama's approval numbers have taken a pretty serious dive in the Keystone State (43/54, down from 48/48 in June), and his generic reelect in the state is pretty darned weak (42 percent).
A demographic stat worth noting: an email from Daily Kos Elections to Quinnipiac yielded the demo breakdown for this poll. The Dem-GOP gap was just a single point, which might be a bit pessimistic given that even in the awful climate of 2010, there was a three-point Dem-GOP gap.
Of course, that can always go two ways. Democrats looking for a silver lining could dismiss the poll as one with a sample that is tilted too precipitously the wrong way. However, that was a line trotted out by a lot of folks (including me) when critiquing 2010 polls. In that case, it accurately reflected an electorate where a lot of Democrats stayed home. So, in a case like this, it's always best to wait for some confirmation: it could be an aberration, or it could be a sign that the fundamentals of the Pennsylvania electorate have shifted in a not-so-happy way for Democrats.
Furthermore, as was the case before the debt fight, the president's political lifeline is being bolstered, even amid these middling-to-weak numbers, by the lack of horsepower of his opponents.
The Republican presidential primary is wide open thus far, with Mitt Romney a weak leader in a largely undefined field. A cursory look at the top five shows just how wide open the Republican field remains (June numbers in parentheses):
Mitt Romney: 21 (21)
Rick Santorum: 14 (16)
Sarah Palin: 12 (11)
Michele Bachmann: 11 (5)
Rick Perry: 8 (--)
Another potential complicating factor for the eventual Republican standard bearer: the GOP has taken a big hit with Pennsylvania voters, even as Pennsylvania voter opinion of the president has soured. Congressional Republicans have an awful job approval spread at 28/68 (in fairness, Congressional Democrats poll almost as bad).
If anyone seems to have weathered the recent voter malaise reasonably well with Pennsylvania voters, it is junior Senator Bob Casey, who faces reelection next year. While his job approval numbers don't paint him as a juggernaut, they remain reasonably strong (48/29). That represents little change since June, as does his performance against "Generic Republican." Casey still leads the always formidable fictional nominee by double digits, leading the generic GOPer by a 47-35 margin.